Sophisticated Skeptic Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 it went from looking amazing, to awful again in 6 hours. at-least it's startin to fire up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Just now, Bacon Strips said: it went from looking amazing, to awful again in 6 hours. at-least it's startin to fire up again. It's the diurnal maximum. A weak system like this is usually going to look less impressive during the afternoon hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 It is clear to say that the Euro caved to the GFS and other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 NHC's track still looks east of what the models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: NHC's track still looks east of what the models are showing. I think they pretty much don't change the track outside of the main advisory times. I would guess that the 4 pm CDT update will show some westward shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 The 12Z Euro run has a lot of SBCAPE advecting inland on that right flank at the same time the mid level wind speeds expand and intensify. I'm sure most of you here already know what the implication of that is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Really interesting on the model trends for the east coast. Hits a brick wall over New England. Quite a pressure gradient for east winds south of New England for several tide cycles. Dangerous surf and rip tides for all the Labor Day swimmers. Wish it could get up here in New England to help our drought. I would assume models will be all over the place depending on the eventual timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 these re-occurring feeder bands around Tampa , could end up being more of a flash-flood issue for that area...then when it even comes ashore. Since most will pass west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Really interesting on the model trends for the east coast. Hits a brick wall over New England. Quite a pressure gradient for east winds south of New England for several tide cycles. Dangerous surf and rip tides for all the Labor Day swimmers. Wish it could get up here in New England to help our drought. I would assume models will be all over the place depending on the eventual timing. East end Long Island would have huge tides and if OC md gets 10" the south end will have 3' water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 rain that's fallen already. The estimates around St. Petersburg are closer to 7" . Several flood reports already, and things have barely started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 The Euro is silly, just lets it sit there off the east coast and redevelop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: The Euro is silly, just lets it sit there off the east coast and redevelop. Yup, still sitting off the VA coast on day 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Worried about the tornado risk for central and eastern NC with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 As the storm gets up towards the Chesapeake the Euro has a pressure of around 990mb. There is a high over Northern New England of about 1023mb. With that amount of pressure gradient how much east wind would be generated. Looks like high waves and beach erosion over many tide cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenavp Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 I live in St. Pete Beach, FL. Can confirm lots of rain, lots of puddles. And a lot of roads under water too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: As the storm gets up towards the Chesapeake the Euro has a pressure of around 990mb. There is a high over Northern New England of about 1023mb. With that amount of pressure gradient how much east wind would be generated. Looks like high waves and beach erosion over many tide cycles. 50-60 mph noreaster type system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: As the storm gets up towards the Chesapeake the Euro has a pressure of around 990mb. There is a high over Northern New England of about 1023mb. With that amount of pressure gradient how much east wind would be generated. Looks like high waves and beach erosion over many tide cycles. The 12Z Euro is on crack. Even redevelops the system into a 970mb hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 12 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: As the storm gets up towards the Chesapeake the Euro has a pressure of around 990mb. There is a high over Northern New England of about 1023mb. With that amount of pressure gradient how much east wind would be generated. Looks like high waves and beach erosion over many tide cycles. From my experiences it equates to 30-35 sustained around Dc immediate and 60 along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 16 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Worried about the tornado risk for central and eastern NC with this. Concern seems to be warranted. The SPC claims the potential could be limited by a weakening cyclone due to land interaction. However, this is during the time when the cyclone is exhibiting temperature advection processes and getting caught in the right entrance region of a cyclonically curved jet streak. This could lead to enhanced amounts of low level shear (due to sustained mid level wind fields) colocated with sufficient instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 11 minutes ago, kenavp said: I live in St. Pete Beach, FL. Can confirm lots of rain, lots of puddles. And a lot of roads under water too. Was the game rescheduled for tonight? They should just forget it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 13 minutes ago, jojo762 said: The 12Z Euro is on crack. Even redevelops the system into a 970mb hurricane. 12Z Euro is an unprecedented path. There have been many instances of hurricane loops. As of this afternoon it's becoming clearer the system will hit a brick wall with nowhere to escape. Depending on where and when will be the key. Expect many more changes in the actual path north of the Carolina's. We are at the end of August, ocean water temperatures are very warm and the Gulf stream is always bringing in new warm water. If Hermine gets up here and sticks around beach erosion over many, many tide cycles could end up being severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 I don't know why the NHC went with 1000mb. Lowest found by recon so far is 1004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 22 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said: Was the game rescheduled for tonight? They should just forget it Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terdferguson Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 1 hour ago, kenavp said: I live in St. Pete Beach, FL. Can confirm lots of rain, lots of puddles. And a lot of roads under water too. Hello neighbor. I live near downtown st. pete. Yeah these storms have trained over us all day. Non stop rain since about 4 or 5 am. My kids school was cancelled for the afternoon and tomorrow due to flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Hermine now a 45mph TS with gusts to 60, moving NNE at 7mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Big shift West in the NHC track also. Hmmm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Update from NHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 400 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 The system appears better organized on satellite images than it was yesterday, with more evidence of convective banding features. However, based on the NOAA Hurricane Hunter data the center is still situated near the northern edge of the main convective cloud mass. Also, data from the aircraft show a very asymmetric wind field with all of the strong winds occurring over the eastern and southeastern portions of the circulation. The advisory intensity is set to 40 kt based on SFMR-observed surface winds from the Hurricane Hunters. Hermine should be in an environment of moderate west-southwesterly shear until it nears the coast, when the dynamical models show increasing shear. The official intensity forecast has been nudged upward a bit, and there is a distinct possibility that Hermine could become a hurricane before landfall. The predicted extratropical transition of the system is based on the latest global model forecasts, which show the cyclone becoming embedded within a front over the eastern United States by 72 hours. The aircraft data show a rather broad area of light winds near the center, making the actual center fixes a little uncertain. However, the best estimate of initial motion is north-northeastward or 030/6 kt. A developing mid-level trough over the southeastern United States should cause Hermine to move north-northeastward at increasing forward speed over the next couple of days. The GFS and ECMWF global models have shifted westward from their previous predictions, and so has the new official forecast. This required a westward extension of the hurricane watch and tropical storm warning along the Florida panhandle. Later in the forecast period, there is significant uncertainty in the track of the system, which will depend on how the post-tropical cyclone interacts with a mid-tropospheric cutoff low that develops over the northeastern United States. The new official forecast keeps the cyclone closer to the east coast from 72-120 hours in deference to the latest GFS solution. It is important not to focus on the forecast landfall point of this system. In addition to the normal uncertainty in track and intensity forecasts, dangerous storm surge flooding is likely to extend along the Gulf coast well to the east and south of the path of the center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 25.5N 87.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 26.5N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 28.1N 86.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 30.0N 85.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 32.0N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 03/1800Z 36.5N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/1800Z 39.0N 74.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/1800Z 39.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 1002.9 pressure found by hurricane hunters now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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