jojo762 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 7 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said: Aren't flight level winds usually stronger though or does it vary. SFMR Surface winds were pretty similar to that anyways. Even had a brief spike to 45kt... Overall looks like a 40-45mph storm right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 FL winds still increasing with several SFMR values at 40 knots. 172600 2404N 08618W 7534 02521 0082 +127 +099 203040 041 038 000 00 172630 2402N 08618W 7865 02161 0088 +141 +120 208043 043 038 000 03 172700 2401N 08618W 8204 01803 0088 +164 +142 209044 045 038 000 03 172730 2359N 08618W 8389 01614 0091 +174 +157 209045 046 039 000 00 172800 2357N 08619W 8403 01597 0091 +176 +158 209045 046 040 000 00 172830 2355N 08619W 8403 01598 0091 +177 +156 208045 046 041 000 00 172900 2354N 08619W 8404 01598 0093 +177 +151 210045 045 040 000 03 172930 2352N 08620W 8407 01594 0093 +174 +157 209045 046 039 000 00 173000 2351N 08621W 8438 01565 0094 +178 +156 208045 046 036 001 00 173030 2350N 08622W 8421 01586 0097 +178 +137 207046 046 038 000 00 173100 2348N 08622W 8422 01582 0096 +178 +145 208044 045 039 001 00 173130 2347N 08622W 8392 01612 0099 +174 +149 207043 044 038 001 00 173200 2345N 08623W 8421 01587 0099 +179 +136 207045 045 040 000 03 173230 2344N 08624W 8400 01608 0097 +178 +135 207044 045 037 000 00 173300 2344N 08626W 8438 01566 0099 +176 +150 207044 045 037 000 03 173330 2346N 08628W 8461 01546 0100 +176 +155 205045 046 035 000 03 173400 2347N 08629W 8431 01575 0098 +174 +158 209046 047 036 000 00 173430 2349N 08630W 8421 01585 0096 +171 +169 211046 047 036 001 00 173500 2351N 08632W 8428 01576 0096 +174 +161 211045 046 039 000 00 173530 2352N 08633W 8408 01589 0094 +168 //// 214045 046 041 001 01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Up to 47 knots flight level winds. More SFMR readings of over 40 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 47 FL winds....it's at least a 40kts storm...and probably closer to 45kts now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Looks like we have Hermine, a very lopsided, Hermine, but still a TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 173530 2352N 08633W 8408 01589 0094 +168 //// 214045 046 041 001 01 Looking like 41 knots surface winds. Edit: up to 45 knot surface winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 And another 46 knots surface reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 "Hermine" is looking more and more elongated on recent sat. pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 We have Hermine http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/311749.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Wow. So this might actually go from a 35mph TD to a 50mph TS (entirely the NHC's discretion though)... A 45kt TS wasn't shown by most models until 24+ hrs from 12Z today. EDIT: Nevermind, guess they decided to be incremental about it. 40mph TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 The advisory is in. TS Hermine Max winds 40MPH SLP 1000mb Conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 In my opinion they are being conservative. This is clearly at least a 40 knot storm according to recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Not surprised they went on the conservative side... Seems like they always do. I wouldn't be surprised if Recon ended up finding 50 kt surface winds somewhere at the end of this run, but that's just speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 12z Euro coming in much slower. It's almost 75-100 miles further SW from it's 00z position at 21z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Still over the gulf at 03z Friday. 00z run was coming onshore already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Looks like extrapolated pressure will be around 1004-1005 millibars. Good winds with the convection, but the system itself hasn't deepened since yesterday. In fact, pressures are a bit higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 I can't believe how big of a shift west the models are taking this. It went from off the NC coast to coming right over the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Landfall 06z Friday on W FL Panhandle. 993mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 I would caution about putting too much stock in any model until the new data gets ingested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 The Euro is about 100 miles inland over S GA on Friday afternoon vs just off the GA coast same time 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 1 minute ago, pcbjr said: I would caution about putting too much stock in any model until the new data gets ingested. We just about have a consensus now track wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: We just about have a consensus now track wise. Indeed, however, they can make a consensus to all change again in the next cycle after new data is taken in. But the west trend is real, for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Tremendous shift West on the Euro and much slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Capture by the ULL early Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Hopefully the P3 can hang around , convection is just now startin to fire up again. Always seems like they get there during the lull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Reemerges off the NC coast near OBX Saturday afternoon. Taking it's sweet time. Big banana high trapping it to the North and East. No choice but to crawl northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: Hopefully the P3 can hang around , convection is just now startin to fire up again. Always seems like they get there during the lull. Well the plane usually arrives around the diurnal maximum, which is about the time that Hermine decides it doesn't wanna fire any more convection and takes a slight step backward in organization. I don't know why this happens because you'd think that the diurnal maximum would fire new convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 994mb 12z Sunday about 50-75 miles ESE of ACY. Heavy rain and wind well North of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 10 minutes ago, Wow said: Indeed, however, they can make a consensus to all change again in the next cycle after new data is taken in. But the west trend is real, for now. Does the recon data collected now get ingested in time for the 18Z models, specifically the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 6 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Well the plane usually arrives around the diurnal maximum, which is about the time that Hermine decides it doesn't wanna fire any more convection and takes a slight step backward in organization. I don't know why this happens because you'd think that the diurnal maximum would fire new convection. Diurnal minimum is when we see tropical cyclones flourish with new convection. Its opposite of typical Plains spring convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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