superjames1992 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Latest NHC 10 am CDT advisory is out and it is still a depression. Looks like they continue to slow it down, too. Looks like it's still a hundred miles offshore at 1 am Friday, whereas the last update had it onshore near Tallahassee at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 I can't remember the last time that the NHC was this conservative when considering an upgrade to TS strength. It seems like they use a much different criteria depending on the TC proximity to land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I can't remember the last time that the NHC was this conservative when considering an upgrade to TS strength. It seems like they use a much different criteria depending on the TC proximity to land. Their reasoning isn't that wrong. When looking at IR you can see most of the intense convection is moving southwest. We also don't know if the LLC has redeveloped inside the convective shield or if its on the northern edge. No harm in waiting for recon to arrive in the next two to three hours. We're not dealing with a system undergoing RI and it remains fairly disorganized for a tropical cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 NAM runs it up the coast inland. in SE VA at 84. Huge shift west. Models might still not be done trending west in the FL panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Latest frames make it look like it's actually moving SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 As the cyclone starts to feel the s/w, it's vorticity area is stretching NE to SW in a large area. This is one of the reasons of the current convective pattern. Not a scenario for much strengthening, but it still can be a low end TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 I love the 06z GFS. Whatever becomes TD 9 is still trolling the east coast at hour 384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 26 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I can't remember the last time that the NHC was this conservative when considering an upgrade to TS strength. It seems like they use a much different criteria depending on the TC proximity to land. seems like they just want to keep things status-quo till recon gets there. Which could bite them with results of a storm that's borderline hurricane strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 The biggest issue with TD9 is the dry air NW of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Just now, Bacon Strips said: seems like they just want to keep things status-quo till recon gets there. Which could bite them with results of a storm that's borderline hurricane strength. As others have said, I understand why they are keeping it where it is for now, especially with recon hopefully arriving before the 18z runs. My only point is that if this was out in the middle of the central Atlantic where all we had was satellite estimates this certainly would have already been named. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: seems like they just want to keep things status-quo till recon gets there. Which could bite them with results of a storm that's borderline hurricane strength. This system is nowhere near hurricane strength. I wouldn't be surprised if they find a few flight level wind reports to support 40-45 MPH surface, but nothing even close to hurricane strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: As others have said, I understand why they are keeping it where it is for now, especially with recon hopefully arriving before the 18z runs. My only point is that if this was out in the middle of the central Atlantic where all we had was satellite estimates this certainly would have already been named. Probably not, we still have ASCAT, and the latest ASCAT definitely didn't support a TS. There's an ASCAT pass in 40 minutes, if it doesn't miss it, we may have some data before recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 9 minutes ago, Seminole said: The biggest issue with TD9 is the dry air NW of it. That does not always mean much though. There is always subsidence nearby a tropical system. It depends upon if that dry air is eventually drawn into the system, it does not always occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 40 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I can't remember the last time that the NHC was this conservative when considering an upgrade to TS strength. It seems like they use a much different criteria depending on the TC proximity to land. I remember people pulling their hair out over Bill last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 I'd be shocked if we don't have 50 MPH sustained when recon arrives. either way, not many tropical systems are this spread-out and able to sustain convection at such a wide radius ...for the last 8 hours or so. could be very interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 12z GFS is stronger and a bit west, with landfall around Apalachicola. It's also larger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 And since it's further west, it runs inland until NJ, where it gets offshore. Lots of rain along the eastern coast states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 4 minutes ago, wxmx said: And since it's further west, it runs inland until NJ, where it gets offshore. Lots of rain along the eastern coast states. Many need the rain. At what point do you think it becomes extratropical? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 7 minutes ago, wxmx said: 12z GFS is stronger and a bit west, with landfall around Apalachicola. It's also larger. That is a big shift west. Wondering if the stationary position this morning is influencing the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1100 AM EDT WED 31 AUGUST 2016 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2016 TCPOD NUMBER.....16-097 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE (GULF OF MEXICO) FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72 A. 01/0000Z A. 01/1430Z,1730Z,2030Z B. AFXXX 1109A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 1309A CYCLONE C. 31/2245Z C. 01/1330Z D. 26.ON 87.4W D. 27.7N 86.0W E. 31/2330Z TO 01/0130Z E. 01/1400Z TO 01/2030Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT FOUR -TEAL 72 A. 01/2330Z,02/0230Z,0530Z A. 02/0830Z,1130Z,1430Z B. AFXXX 1409A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 1509A CYCLONE C. 01/2230Z C. 02/0730Z D. 29.0N 85.0W D. 30.2N 83.2W E. 01/2300Z TO 02/0530Z E. 02/0800Z TO 02/1430Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. 3. REMARKS: FLIGHT ONE ABOVE IS A RESOURCES PERMITTING FIGHT WHICH WAS ADDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 No NOAA flights scheduled to fly tonight or tomorrow according to the new TCPOD. Looks like the NOAA P-3 just departed and is enroute to TD9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 1 minute ago, David Reimer said: No NOAA flights scheduled to fly tonight or tomorrow. Looks like the NOAA P-3 just departed and is enroute to TD9. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 5 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Many need the rain. At what point do you think it becomes extratropical? Probably between the 60-72 hour timeframe, while inland, according to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 14 minutes ago, David Reimer said: No NOAA flights scheduled to fly tonight or tomorrow.. woah...what? funding issues ? what's the problem now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 FINALLY starting to see some banding structures beginning to take shape, even wrapping around the northern part of the circulation. I think that intense and persistent convective blow up near the center this morning may have finally kickstarted this thing. Probably also a product of reducing shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Please keep conspiracy stuff out of this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 It took forever but things are finally starting to organize nicely. You can see banding structure developing near the center and much improved outflow the last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 We'll have to see how convection maintains as we head into the diurnal maximum. The NOAA P-3 should be on station in the next 90 minutes. The current TD icon is where NHC has the current LLC. One uncertainty going around on Twitter is whether or not the LLC relocated south into the convection overnight. We've gone around 18 hours without an aircraft in the system so it'll be interesting to see how the organization has changed since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 12 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: woah...what? funding issues ? what's the problem now. I read earlier on this board that it was mechanical in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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