David Reimer Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Ship under TD9 convection reported sustained winds of 43 MPH at 7 AM. Post-storm report will likely indicate we now have Tropical Storm Hermine, regardless of when the next special update is issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Just now, David Reimer said: This is at least a 40kt TS at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Most of that convection is still south of the center based on the ship report. Would still like to see it more concentric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 34 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: both numbers are added in together here - http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt09L.html for all tropical systems - http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/adt.html Thanks! I am bookmarking both links. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 30 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This is at least a 40kt TS at this point. agreed. I'd go a step further and say at-least 45kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 51 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Estimate right now is 59.0kts max and 987.5mb min. It had similar satellite derived intensities yesterday evening when recon was in there. Why is it suddenly valid now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Just now, OSUmetstud said: It had similar satellite derived intensities yesterday evening when recon was in there. Why is it suddenly valid now? Thank you! Until recon says otherwise it would be prudent to assume satellite intensities remain too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 ive seen similar blobs have everything from 30kt to 70kt winds once checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jh28wd40 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 The only thing that bothers me right now. I know Cheeznado mentioned it. The north side isn't exhausting properly, the pressure can't keep falling if it can't get rid of the air in the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Just now, OSUmetstud said: It had similar satellite derived intensities yesterday evening when recon was in there. Why is it suddenly valid now? I didn't say it was "suddenly valid now" We now have ship observations and DVORAK estimates equating to at the very least a 35kt TS. That should be enough to upgrade at 11AM even without recon data, barring any major changes between now and then structurally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Just now, David Reimer said: Thank you! Until recon says otherwise it would be prudent to assume satellite intensities remain too high. I find adt to run a bit high anyway. The ssd folks tend give a more solid conservative CI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I didn't say it was "suddenly valid now" We now have ship observations and DVORAK estimates equating to at the very least a 35kt TS. That should be enough to upgrade at 11AM even without recon data, barring any major changes between now and then structurally. I dont trust ships obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 New NHC update is west of 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: I find adt to run a bit high anyway. The ssd folks tend give a more solid conservative CI. I like ADT during spells of RI, because the more conservative ruleset slows down how fast something can strengthen. but otherwise you are absolutely right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Just got up and taking first looks since last evening. What is going on with the recon missions? Just went on Tropical Tidbits and see no recon over past 6 hours. When is the next mission? This is probably a very critical time to get an idea as to what is going on. Couple of thoughs. Impressive big blob of deep convection. Don't see good outflow except SE quad. Models coming west. Great news for New England. Drought conditions could be eased. If the system hugs the east coast there will not be a destructive wind threat but usually heaviest rain on west side which could help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 If this damn thing goes another update without being named, expect a suicide attempt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 35 minutes ago, Snow88 said: New NHC update is west of 6z those aren't NHC tracks. Those are from upcoming 12z models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Recon is a hot mess right now. This is the first time...and probably the last time they should do this... Focus one line of aircraft per storm (i.e. NOAA only planes for 09L, AF only for 08L). If there is a technical problem with the entire group, at least you have the other one going out. Especially at a critical strengthening time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 1 minute ago, PSUBlizzicane2007 said: Recon is a hot mess right now. This is the first time...and probably the last time they should do this... Focus one line of aircraft per storm (i.e. NOAA only planes for 09L, AF only for 08L). If there is a technical problem with the entire group, at least you have the other one going out. Especially at a critical strengthening time. It doesn't help that NOAA only has one plane right now with the other undergoing heavy maintenance. I feel for the Air Force though, they've got 3 aircraft out in HI for the Pacific canes and I don't know if they're still doing missions on TD8. They're stretched for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 This storm is more annoying than Fay. Either way, GFS models are showing a miserable Labor Day weekend now for the mid Atlantic into New England beach goers. Surf is gonna be dangerous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 2 minutes ago, PSUBlizzicane2007 said: Recon is a hot mess right now. This is the first time...and probably the last time they should do this... Focus one line of aircraft per storm (i.e. NOAA only planes for 09L, AF only for 08L). If there is a technical problem with the entire group, at least you have the other one going out. Especially at a critical strengthening time. OT but how is the funding for the HH/Recon programs? I assume they are underfunded. Good case for sending more $$$ their way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jh28wd40 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 I live about a mile north of Macdill AFB. I can usually hear Miss Piggy taking off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 The models that run at 10 am in the summer strengthen the system. the hires is a beast for lolz sake. the lower res is stronger than earlier runs. Hires has it as a cat 3 at hour 33 928 at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 If anyone is interested - I have links below for animated zoomed in GOES East 1-km visible, IR, and WV imagery from http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html currently over TD09. Can change settings (right click and 'view page source' of link above to see code for settings options) in the URL such as LAT/LONG, zoom (=4 low, =2 medium, =1 high), enhancement (IR/WV), number of frames, etc. Visible IR WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 13z RAP takes this pretty far NW in the next 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Up to 3.8 now. That would = a 60kt TS. UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.2.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 31 AUG 2016 Time : 131500 UTC Lat : 24:33:04 N Lon : 88:01:16 W Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 3.8 4.0 4.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Still TD 9 at 11... and updated watch/warnings issued: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Marineland Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 They are keeping it as a depression for the 11AM advisory. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1000 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 The system is producing vigorous deep convection, but there is little organization to the overall cloud pattern. Using the Dvorak rules, a bursting but disorganized convective pattern would indicate little change in strength. The intensity is held at 30 kt pending new observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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