Hermine

[jojo762]

5 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said:

dumb question here. how come there is a Hurricane Watch for the big bend of Florida when just about none of the guidance says they actually get hurricane conditions? am I missing something? or are they just being extra cautious?

Actually a decent amount of guidance shows it becoming a borderline hurricane... But most, yes, keep it as a mod-high TS... Because there *may* be hurricane conditions is why they issued it. 

 

On a different note, looks like the storm is trying to wrap up.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

7 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said:

dumb question here. how come there is a Hurricane Watch for the big bend of Florida when just about none of the guidance says they actually get hurricane conditions? am I missing something? or are they just being extra cautious?

 

their using their experience of being in the NHC, and knowing what to expect...seeing these things blowup like this in the gulf for decades now.  And surprising all models. 

85+ water temps always cause surprises.

 

[Jim Marusak]

6 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Actually a decent amount of guidance shows it becoming a borderline hurricane... But most, yes, keep it as a mod-high TS... Because there *may* be hurricane conditions is why they issued it. 

 

On a different note, looks like the storm is trying to wrap up.

it's taken long enough to finally get going. time to see what happens when it finally isn't battling tons of shear.

[jojo762]

Still a 30kt Depression... Upgraded winds to near hurricane strength, 70mph, at landfall in FL.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

The convective organization of the cyclone has improved markedly
since this time yesterday, and especially since the previous
advisory, with a large convective cloud mass having developed around
the well-defined low-level center. Ship C6FN5 located about 80 nmi
south of the center at 00Z reported a 35-kt wind, but at an elevated
height of 43 meters, which adjusts down to a 10-meter wind of 30-31
kt. The recent NOAA recon flight also confirmed that winds of about
30 kt existed, so the intensity will remain unchanged at 30 kt for
this advisory.

Fixes from the NOAA aircraft indicated a west-southwestward motion
over the previous 6 hours. However, this is believed to be a
temporary motion that was likely just the result of the center
redeveloping closer to strongest convection in the southern
quadrant. Since that time, little motion or just a slight drift
toward the north-northwest at 2 kt is indicated by satellite
imagery. The latest 00Z upper-air data showed the depression is now
located along or just north of the subtropical ridge axis that is
oriented east-west across the Florida Straits, a steering pattern
that favors a northward motion during the next 12 hours or so. After
that time, the NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement on a
shortwave trough currently over the central U.S. digging
southeastward to the northeast Gulf coast and lifting out and
accelerating the cyclone toward the northeast by 36 hours. Due to
the uncertainty in the short term motion, the new official forecast
was not shifted as far west as the latest model consensus and
instead lies very close to the previous advisory track.

Unlike the previous several days, deep convection has finally
developed north of the low-level center during the past 6 hours,
and more recent satellite trends suggest that some inner-core
curved banding features may be developing. The upper-level outflow
has been improving and expanding in all quadrants now that the
vertical wind shear has decreased to less than 10 kt and has shifted
from a northerly to a westerly component. Some additional decrease
in the shear is forecast to occur for the next 36 to 48 hours while
the cyclone remains in a modestly moist environment. The NHC
intensity guidance has increased as a result of the improving
environmental conditions, so the official intensity forecast has
also been increased, which now shows the cyclone near hurricane
strength just prior to landfall at 48 hours. No changes to the
existing hurricane and tropical storm watches are required at this
time. However, by Wednesday morning, a tropical storm watch may be
needed for the coasts of northeast Florida and Georgia.

It is important not to focus on the forecast landfall point of this
system.  Among other reasons, dangerous storm surge flooding is
likely along the coast well to the east and south of the path of the
center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0300Z 24.3N  87.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/1200Z 25.1N  87.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 26.3N  87.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 27.8N  85.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 29.6N  83.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 33.4N  77.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 37.1N  70.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 39.0N  68.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[NavarreDon]

A little surprised that they didn't shift the track a bit west. Taking the wait and see approach I guess. Will be interesting to see the 0Z & 6Z guidance has to say.


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[PSUBlizzicane2007]

55 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said:

dumb question here. how come there is a Hurricane Watch for the big bend of Florida when just about none of the guidance says they actually get hurricane conditions? am I missing something? or are they just being extra cautious?

The Euro and HWRF are in general agreement on a cat 1 hurricane landfall, and the GFS has had pressures running high in general (see Gaston) 

[BuffaloWeather]

Lots of convection firing around the center.

 

[jojo762]

NHC upped the ante for storm surge on the 03Z update by the way. Blue = greater than 1 foot AGL, Yellow = greater than 3 feet AGL, Orange = greater than 6 feet AGL.

[Jackstraw]

Where's the Loop Current (AKA the Cat 5 generator lol ) this year ?

https://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_data/show/?file=../../regions/gulfmexico/sst_comp/noaa/2016/img/160830.243.comp.lnt.jpg

[Tater Tot]

3 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Where's the Loop Current (AKA the Cat 5 generator lol ) this year ?

https://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_data/show/?file=../../regions/gulfmexico/sst_comp/noaa/2016/img/160830.243.comp.lnt.jpg

Probably having an affair with the epac.

[Morris]

Looking at the nice NW outflow on the last scan.

[jojo762]

Still a 30kt/35mph TD as of the 06Z intermediate update. Satellite presentation is improving dramatically though. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

I wouldn't be surprised for the next update/recon to be at TS strength finally. 

[David Reimer]

Looks like the overnight NOAA flight was cancelled for technical reasons. Guess we'll have to wait until midday for the next scheduled flight. 

[jh28wd40]

Does it look like it's jogged east to anyone else? 

[downeastnc]

9 minutes ago, jh28wd40 said:

Does it look like it's jogged east to anyone else? 

Cant really tell much of anything, there is no defined center to track,  just a lot of thunderstorm complexes firing up that make it look it may be moving one way or the other, my guess is the "center" isn't moving much at all....

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

TD9 goes Boom

[jh28wd40]

Yeah that MLC and LLC looks to be a couple now. It's going to be interesting to see what the next Recon flight finds... 

[Seminole]

 

Two things working against it are upwelling and that pesky dry air to the northwest

 

 

 

[jh28wd40]

 

 

The dry air doesn't seem to be playing that much of a part this morning. The upwelling I can see being a problem though. 

Ok this is showing an old gif.. go figure.  :/

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/wv_lalo-animated.gif

I will just link it, so I can get the right gif to you.. 

[NJwx85]

Bombs away...

 

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

doubt it's a TD anymore.

heck, its even bigger in size than Gastion .

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

doubt it's a TD anymore.

heck, its even bigger in size than Gastion .

UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.2.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 31 AUG 2016 Time : 111500 UTC Lat : 24:41:21 N Lon : 88:03:50 W Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 3.3 3.7 4.0 Center Temp : -73.0C Cloud Region Temp : -75.0C

[a5ehren]

For the people like me who have to look up T-numbers on Wikipedia, 3.3 = ~50kts (mid-range TS). I'd expect Hermine once the recon comes in.

[NJwx85]

Just now, a5ehren said:

For the people who have to look up T-numbers on Wikipedia, 3.3 = ~50kts (mid-range TS). I'd expect Hermine once the recon comes in.

Estimate right now is 59.0kts max and 987.5mb min.

[jh28wd40]

Just now, a5ehren said:

For the people like me who have to look up T-numbers on Wikipedia, 3.3 = ~50kts (mid-range TS). I'd expect Hermine once the recon comes in.

Yeah thanks, I was looking up the rating myself.

[Cheeznado]

Sometimes these types of bursts do not indicate as much strengthening as it may appear, the outflow on the north side actually looks a bit worse. I will not be convinced that it is really going to town until we get confirmation from the recon. Too bad that NOAA flight was cancelled. There still are differences in the speed as well as intensity, HWRF has a afternoon landfall tomorrow, other models say overnight. This one continues to confound somewhat, I wish it would settle in on a solution since I leave in a bit to head down that way.

[Morris]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Estimate right now is 59.0kts max and 987.5mb min.

DVORAK estimated that last light as well, but ASCAT still didn't find TS winds.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

4 minutes ago, a5ehren said:

For the people like me who have to look up T-numbers on Wikipedia, 3.3 = ~50kts (mid-range TS). I'd expect Hermine once the recon comes in.

both numbers are added in together here -

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt09L.html

for all tropical systems -

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/adt.html

[Cheeznado]

Ship report of 0113 with 35 kt wind south of the center