pcbjr Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 26 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: The whole "Forgotten Coast" is super susceptible to surge issues even from a marginal TS. Leading the way has to be Cape San Blas in Gulf county. It's such a little spit of land that separates St Joe Bay from the GOM. An area known as the Stump Hole over washes quite regularly. Any sort of hit or near miss on the Cape will lead to the area being cut off from the mainland. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Cape San Blas. What a nice place that is for camping. Especially from November to March. Anyway - feeling a bit less apprehensive about Gainesville/Cedar Key now. My money is still on Perry or thereabouts. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 32 minutes ago, wxmx said: Actually, it's losing latitude. Recon is about to confirm that, but they are currently south of the last fix. South, as you can see in the shear map I posted, is where the shear is lower. I had not seen the latest recon. I was just going by the NHC advisory in which they say it's moving nw at 5 mph. You are correct the latest recon isn't showing any north component. The exact center of the loose core might wobble around a bit tonight depending on the convective bursts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: I had not seen the latest recon. I was just going by the NHC advisory in which they say it's moving nw at 5 mph. You are correct the latest recon isn't showing any north component. The exact center of the loose core might wobble around a bit tonight depending on the convective bursts. think this is what wxmx might be going off of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 It's more like it's drifting a bit south, nothing major. I expect it to resume the WNW/NW heading soon. The above image is missing the latest fix, which is SW of the 1004mb fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 1 minute ago, wxmx said: It's more like it's drifting a bit south, nothing major. I expect it to resume the WNW/NW heading soon. If this next pass is south, you might be onto something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Winds actually weakened to the SE at the second pass now. This is clearly not close to being a TS yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Recon diving south? Might be moving south after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: Recon diving south? Might be moving south after all. Not saying it is moving south (I'm not that smart) - but if it is, especially more than a little bit wobble, the whole outlook changes - Alabama anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 It's like Elena's illegitimate daughter. Just make up your mind and do something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Convection is exploding over and around the center right now. Not too shabby. This might just be "wishful" thinking, but sure seems like the LLC and MLC are getting pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 25 minutes ago, Morris said: Winds actually weakened to the SE at the second pass now. This is clearly not close to being a TS yet. Yes, but those winds were well removed from the center. In the current pass the winds near the center have picked up, which is a structural change that signs for strengthening in the near/mid term. Center fix should be done in the next few minutes, but it appears it will be further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, wxmx said: Yes, but those winds were well removed from the center. In the current pass the winds near the center have picked up, which is a structural change that signs for strengthening in the near/mid term. Center fix should be done in the next few minutes, but it appears it will be further south. Man, hate to see the panic at the NHC. Looks like the MLC and LLC are trying to align. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Further SW indeed...24.1N 87.7W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 5 minutes ago, wxmx said: Center fix should be done in the next few minutes, but it appears it will be further south. I am glad to be corrected - but wouldn't further south i) lead to a more north to west landfall than is progged now and ii) given the area of light shear, increase he chance of strengthening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 1 minute ago, pcbjr said: I am glad to be corrected - but wouldn't further south i) lead to a more north to west landfall than is progged now and ii) given the area of light shear, increase the chance of strengthening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 1 minute ago, pcbjr said: I am glad to be corrected - but wouldn't further south i) lead to a more north to west landfall than is progged now and ii) given the area of light shear, increase he chance of strengthening? Me too, gives this more time over ocean! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, pcbjr said: I am glad to be corrected - but wouldn't further south i) lead to a more north to west landfall than is progged now and ii) given the area of light shear, increase he chance of strengthening? Not necessarily, as the steering mechanism key player is a shortwave trough. The cyclone would travel east of the trough axis, which is moving east as well. So, it may travel for a longer time, while the trough moves east, leading to a potential sharper turn. But that's just one factor right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 1 minute ago, wxmx said: Not necessarily, as the steering mechanism key player is a shortwave trough. The cyclone would travel east of the trough axis, which is moving east as well. So, it may travel for a longer time, while the trough moves east, leading to a potential sharper turn. But that's just one factor right now. Agree. But that SW seems to be holding back ("seems" being the operative in the equation). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 According to CIMSS, the TD is now under shear <=10 kts...that's one of the reasons of the current convective flareup, which is not getting sheared off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, wxmx said: According to CIMSS, the TD is now under shear <=10 kts...that's one of the reasons of the current convective flareup, which is not getting sheared off. Lots of dynamics for a little unorganized TD tonight. This is indeed an education. Thanks to WOW for getting this forum going, btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 So Looks like the LLC is moving SW and the MLC is moving NW and is under convection now. Could maybe see alignment tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: So Looks like the LLC is moving SW and the MLC is moving NW and is under convection now. Could maybe see alignment tonight. Also is possible that the MLC is occluding/dying. The convective blow up right now is pretty impressive. Seems to be wrapping around too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Also is possible that the MLC is occluding/dying. The convective blow up right now is pretty impressive. Seems to be wrapping around too? Can you post the satellite image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 TD 9 is blowing up this evening. Wow http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-vis-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 I'm not a Met but Looking at the last satellite picture of the day sure looks impressive. Really does look like the mid level and low level circulation are about to link up. Notice the hottest towers are on the south side of the llc. Also the NW quad which has been very dry is now starting to fill in with outflow becoming established. I have been watching this thing for days with many false starts but this one looks for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 If TD #9 wants to get going, now is the time to do it! Shear, as wxmx said, is under 10 knots; upper-level support is there with the upper-level high right overhead. ***IF*** the centers can align, this thing could get going and get going quick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 If the MLC and LLC haven't already become aligned (due to NW moving MLC, and WSW moving LLC), they are pretty damn close. Per recon, I figure the LLC is somewhere near 24N 87W (correct me if i'm wrong), and the MLC is at ~23N 87W. I doubt this amounts to anything other than what is already expected though. Still *another* step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 LOL some models have the two areas of convection splitting apart. The weenie in me would meltdown at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 dumb question here. how come there is a Hurricane Watch for the big bend of Florida when just about none of the guidance says they actually get hurricane conditions? am I missing something? or are they just being extra cautious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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