WeSuck Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Sso whats going on around 22.5-23.0 N and 87.0 W on visible satellite? Is that the MLC? Looks better than the LLC if anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 The Arpege (French Model) is showing a TS 998L hitting the panhandle BTW, this model was developed using the Euro and adding onto it. It did very well with winter storms in the SE last year. I believe Shawn found in on the SE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 6 minutes ago, Morris said: Convection was a lot nicer a few hours ago. No TS on recon. 1 step forward, 2 steps back. Convection is cycling back up again. And Dvorak estimates are way up from earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Been faked out before, but maybe this is finally it. Looks to be a big blowup right over the LLC. Looks like for whatever reason this loop is slightly delayed. You can see a much larger blowup on these loops. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/wv_lalo-animated.gif http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-vis-short.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Will the National Hurricane Center upgrade at 5, we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Will the National Hurricane Center upgrade at 5, we will see. Recon has found that it's still only a depression AFAICS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 12z EPS mean landfall in Western FL Panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 More interested in projected track (personally); I'm thinking somewhere between Perry and Tallahassee ultimately, unless this thing slows down once it turns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Glad to see recon data returned after a 30-40 minute data gap. Max FL wind found so far has been 34 knots, which translates to around 30 knots at the surface. Pressure has been relatively steady all day from the early morning flights through now with 1003-1005 millibars. We'll see what happens, but until we see some sort of unforeseen intensification I'd stick with a strong TS at landfall. I'm sure 99L/9 has a few more surprises in store for us though. The biggest story may end up being the flooding rains across Florida. A good stretch of the state could pick up 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized amounts up to 15" possible. Strong tidal surges will be an issue too as we head toward a holiday weekend in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 What looks really interesting it's what happens after Florida and it enters Atlantic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Recon making another lap to the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Morris said: Recon making another lap to the center. the "center" of what? and where is there a "center"? seriously looks like decoupled circulation areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Earlier ensembles to compare when updated NHC data comes out soon. This system HAS the potential to effect a large are of the eastern USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 NHC cone west of their previous update http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152206.shtml?5-daynl#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 NHC now entertaining the idea of a Cat 1 Hurricane The system has still not become better organized on satellite imagery, with limited evidence of banding features. There is an apparent mid-level center of circulation located south of the low-level center. The highest flight-level wind reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 34 kt and the highest SFMR-observed surface winds were 30 kt, which continues to be used for the advisory intensity. There is some evidence of increasing upper-level outflow to the north. The latest intensity guidance is a little more aggressive than before, with a little less shear forecast over the northern Gulf coast region. The official intensity forecast has been increased slightly in comparison to the previous one, and is a little below the latest model consensus. Given that a couple of the models show the system becoming a hurricane, and the 48-hour forecast point implies tropical-storm-force winds near the coast, it is prudent to issue a hurricane watch for a portion of the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast at this time. Fixes from the NOAA aircraft show that the initial motion is northwestward, or 320/4 kt. The global models continue to show a mid-tropospheric trough developing over the southeastern United States during the next couple of days. This should cause the tropical cyclone to turn toward the north and north-northeast in 24-48 hours. The dynamical track guidance models have shifted a bit to the west compared to their earlier runs, as has the multi-model consensus. Therefore the official track forecast is also west of the previous one. It is important not to focus on the forecast landfall point of this system. Among other reasons, dangerous storm surge flooding is likely along the coast well to the east and south of the path of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Watches are up now and tracking further west, as noted - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 First storm surge watch issued from Spring Hill, FL north to east of Panama City Beach, FL. The NHC discussion emphasised a significant storm surge may impact a good chunk of the FL Gulf Coast with Hermine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Recon making a 4th approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 8 minutes ago, David Reimer said: First storm surge watch issued from Spring Hill, FL north to east of Panama City Beach, FL. The NHC discussion emphasised a significant storm surge may impact a good chunk of the FL Gulf Coast with Hermine. It should be noted that for this season, the storm surge watches and warnings are experimental. After a public comment/review period, they would become part of the official watches and warnings next season. Overall though, it will be a good test for the new watches and warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: It should be noted that for this season, the storm surge watches and warnings are experimental. After a public comment/review period, they would become part of the official watches and warnings next season. Overall though, it will be a good test for the new watches and warnings. I think it's assumed there gonna be added since the NWS added them to the SAME codes, and new weather radios have the event codes for Storm Surge Watch/Warnings added as well as the Extreme Wind Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Another convection blowup near/over the center, which appears to be pinwheeling around the MLC. Let's see if recon can confirm it. Overall it appears on the brink of TS strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, wxmx said: Another convection blowup near/over the center, which appears to be pinwheeling around the MLC. Let's see if recon can confirm it. Overall it appears on the brink of TS strength. That problem will need to be fixed if this is going to strengthen significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 7 minutes ago, wxmx said: Another convection blowup near/over the center, which appears to be pinwheeling around the MLC. Let's see if recon can confirm it. Overall it appears on the brink of TS strength. MLC AND LLC are noticeably more close together today than they have been for over a week. System is starting to look more Tropical Storm'esque on Vis. Sat. Outflow looks pretty beautiful... Overall is still crap though. But getting better. Like amped said above, this system isn't going to do much without the MLC/LLC overlapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, jojo762 said: MLC AND LLC are noticeably more close together today than they have been for over a week. System is starting to look more Tropical Storm'esque on Vis. Sat. Outflow looks pretty beautiful... Overall is still crap though. But getting better. Agree. The reason this is looking better is this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 In addition to the system gaining a northward component, it looks from satellite that the shearing upper level wind may have veered just a bit more ssw'erly versus the sw'erly earlier. The combination of those two factors seems to be lessening the shear and allowing better convective development close to the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: In addition to the system gaining a northward component, it looks from satellite that the shearing upper level wind has veered just a bit more ssw'erly versus the sw'erly earlier. The combination of those two factors seems to be lessening the shear and allowing better convective development close to the center. Actually, it's losing latitude. Recon is about to confirm that, but they are currently south of the last fix. South, as you can see in the shear map I posted, is where the shear is lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, wxmx said: Agree. The reason this is looking better is this: If the centers ever begin to overlap, like let's say tonight (doubt it though), this could start up in a hurry it seems. Still not likely to see RI, but modest intensification into a cat 1. Either way, a large portion of Florida is going to get inundated with tropical moisture (it already is really.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 First storm surge watch issued from Spring Hill, FL north to east of Panama City Beach, FL. The NHC discussion emphasised a significant storm surge may impact a good chunk of the FL Gulf Coast with Hermine. The whole "Forgotten Coast" is super susceptible to surge issues even from a marginal TS. Leading the way has to be Cape San Blas in Gulf county. It's such a little spit of land that separates St Joe Bay from the GOM. An area known as the Stump Hole over washes quite regularly. Any sort of hit or near miss on the Cape will lead to the area being cut off from the mainland.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, wxmx said: Actually, it's losing latitude. Recon is about to confirm that, but they are currently south of the last fix. South, as you can see in the shear map I posted, is where the shear is lower. Looks like a wobble. Nevertheless the system is still decoupled and only hope would be for the system to loose it's MLC and generate a new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: The whole "Forgotten Coast" is super susceptible to surge issues even from a marginal TS. Leading the way has to be Cape San Blas in Gulf county. It's such a little spit of land that separates St Joe Bay from the GOM. An area known as the Stump Hole over washes quite regularly. Any sort of hit or near miss on the Cape will lead to the area being cut off from the mainland. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Debbie hit that area in 2012, Alberto in 2006 and Frances in 2004. I didn't hear of the first two of those doing considerable damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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