wxmx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 6 minutes ago, isohume said: Hey mods, can we get a banter thread in here? Sure, be my guest to create one. There are several posts that I would have hidden, if it not were by the fact that my 'Moderator' tag is a vanity one, as I have no moderation powers here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 The wedge of dry air is becoming less of an influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 14 minutes ago, wxmx said: Sure, be my guest to create one. There are several posts that I would have hidden, if it not were by the fact that my 'Moderator' tag is a vanity one, as I have no moderation powers here. You do now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, Wow said: You do now. Thanks Wow. Tropical weenies, tremble with fear now ;). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 7 minutes ago, wxmx said: Thanks Wow. Tropical weenies, tremble with fear now ;). Wow!! Thanks, Wow. Thanks!! Wow, Wow! Wow, Wow, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 37 minutes ago, wxmx said: ASCAT-B missed most of the circulation, but it's hinting at the TD being closer to 23N than 24N. ASCAT-A pass may reveal a little more. Also, recon is about to make a fix in about 30 minutes. Recon fixed the center at around 24.3N 87.1W. So probably what ASCAT is showing is just an elongated NE/SW LLC. So far nothing that resembles a TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Just now, wxmx said: Recon fixed the center at around 24.3N 87.1W. So probably what ASCAT is showing is just an elongated NE/SW LLC. So far nothing that resembles a TS. Haven't been paying much attention today, but I think I saw some ship obs of sustained 40mph winds. Those may have been gusts too though. Doesn't look that organized on satellite but, looks slightly better than it has over the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Recon has now 30 knots. We'll see how much more they find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Euro much stronger, 983mb landfall Big bend area of FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Can someone post a Euro picture without breaking copyright? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 1 minute ago, cdhay17 said: Can someone post a Euro picture without breaking copyright? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Landfall is much further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 as suspected ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Way more tucked into the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 The normally reliable euro has been a bit of a yo-yo with this system. It has been a tough one for sure. The morning trend is definitely toward a somewhat more northerly track into Florida and up along the GA/SC coast. The euro, gfs, hwrf, and uk have all shifted nw. I think the Canadian was already there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 33 knots found already. 1 more needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, Morris said: 33 knots found already. 1 more needed. That's flight level winds. Highest believable SFMR has only been 30 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, Morris said: 33 knots found already. 1 more needed. Maybe I'm not reading the graph correctly but it looks like they found tropical storm force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Still decoupled on sattlite. LLC on north end of convection and the MLC smack dab in the middle of it. However, looking at low level cloud motion may be a weaker sfc circulation under the MLC. I'll have to look at recon when I get the chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Just now, WeatherFan202 said: Maybe I'm not reading the graph correctly but it looks like they found tropical storm force winds. Question is if they believe that reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said: Maybe I'm not reading the graph correctly but it looks like they found tropical storm force winds. No, that 41kts SFMR is flagged as suspect...the next closest is 30kts...Also, flight level doesn't support anything above 30kts, so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Interesting to see the 12Z Euro now retrogrades the system back toward New England. Seems like the models are shifting west once TD9 gets back out into the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowlieSnowstormson Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Looks like a substantial burst of convection starting near the center after a weird afternoon so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Convection was a lot nicer a few hours ago. No TS on recon. 1 step forward, 2 steps back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Estimates are way up. Up to 45kts now. 2016AUG30 131500 2.7 1000.4 39.0 2.7 2.8 2.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -63.36 -62.88 UNIFRM N/A -2.0 23.94 87.05 FCST GOES13 31.1 2016AUG30 134500 2.8 999.2 41.0 2.8 3.0 3.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -64.56 -62.23 UNIFRM N/A -2.0 23.95 87.10 FCST GOES13 31.1 2016AUG30 141500 2.9 998.0 43.0 2.9 3.1 3.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -67.46 -61.89 UNIFRM N/A -2.0 23.97 87.15 FCST GOES13 31.1 2016AUG30 144500 2.9 997.9 43.0 2.9 3.1 3.4 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -67.06 -64.12 UNIFRM N/A -2.0 23.99 87.18 FCST GOES13 31.2 2016AUG30 151500 2.9 997.9 43.0 2.9 3.0 3.4 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -65.36 -63.09 UNIFRM N/A -2.0 24.01 87.22 FCST GOES13 31.2 2016AUG30 154500 2.9 997.9 43.0 2.9 3.0 3.5 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -64.56 -61.68 UNIFRM N/A -2.0 24.03 87.24 FCST GOES13 31.3 2016AUG30 161500 3.0 996.7 45.0 3.0 3.0 3.4 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -61.86 -58.76 UNIFRM N/A -2.0 24.05 87.26 FCST GOES13 31.3 2016AUG30 164500 3.0 996.7 45.0 3.0 3.1 3.5 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -58.86 -57.17 UNIFRM N/A -2.0 24.08 87.28 FCST GOES13 31.3 2016AUG30 171500 3.0 996.7 45.0 3.0 3.1 3.4 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -54.46 -54.74 CRVBND N/A -2.0 24.10 87.30 FCST GOES13 31.4 2016AUG30 174500 3.0 996.7 45.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -50.06 -52.60 CRVBND N/A -2.0 24.13 87.31 FCST GOES13 31.4 2016AUG30 181500 3.0 996.7 45.0 3.0 3.3 3.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -51.56 -50.71 CRVBND N/A -2.0 24.15 87.31 FCST GOES13 31.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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