NJwx85 Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 99L continues to look better this morning as we pass the diurnal minimum. If convection can continue to build during the day, that's a good sign moving towards the max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 The 12z GFS, while still not showing much in the way of organization over the next five days, actually has an identifiable area of low pressure in the Eastern gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 The crazy uncle has 99L becoming a minimal cane in the Western Gulf with landfall in NE TX late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 Shear has dropped to 20kt this morning and we actually have semi-organized convection. Shear should continue to drop from the marginal level it is at now to something more favorable (10kt) tomorrow. It looks like a new LLC is trying to develop north of the old, dying one. Might be some life in this one yet. At least there won't be a ton of downslope from Hispaniola and shear to choke off convection today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 12z HWRF is a nuke in the Gulf. Deepens nearly 30mb in a 24 hour period from early Monday to early Tuesday with further deepening thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 On 8/26/2016 at 5:30 PM, NJwx85 said: 12z HWRF is a nuke in the Gulf. Deepens nearly 30mb in a 24 hour period from early Monday to early Tuesday with further deepening thereafter. Expand Hasn't that model been a nuke in the gulf for awhile now, curious to see what environmental conditions it has in the Bahamas and S. Florida to allow it to deepen so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 On 8/26/2016 at 5:42 PM, NWLinnCountyIA said: Hasn't that model been a nuke in the gulf for awhile now, curious to see what environmental conditions it has in the Bahamas and S. Florida to allow it to deepen so quickly. Expand The last four runs have been strong but it had backed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 On 8/26/2016 at 5:30 PM, NJwx85 said: 12z HWRF is a nuke in the Gulf. Deepens nearly 30mb in a 24 hour period from early Monday to early Tuesday with further deepening thereafter. Expand So was the ECMWF in the Atlantic. And the ECMWF yesterday was "moving towards" the GFS. Take a look at the consensus model intensity guidance chart at 12z - most don't have it getting past TS strength. The GFS is totally missing this at 4 days out? Look, not trying to be a party pooper here, and I'm not a Met ... but we've all been told that the models are not going to have a handle on this until it forms, if it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 Convection looks like it just erupted, Hurricane Hunters just uncanceled there flight for 1345 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 It may be firing convection today, but dry air and shear are still a big problem. Models suggest the Florida Keys area is the earliest this thing could really begin to organize. In addition to backing off the intensity, one other significant thing the euro is doing is trending toward stronger energy in the area where Fiona croaked, which gets pulled west in tandem with 99L and acts to stretch 99L and pull it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 On 8/26/2016 at 5:30 PM, NJwx85 said: 12z HWRF is a nuke in the Gulf. Deepens nearly 30mb in a 24 hour period from early Monday to early Tuesday with further deepening thereafter. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 Looking really good right now. Big tower going up to the NE of the center and what appears to be a ring of convection now wrapping around the Western side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 On 8/26/2016 at 6:52 PM, NJwx85 said: Looking really good right now. Big tower going up to the NE of the center and what appears to be a ring of convection now wrapping around the Western side. Expand Just when I gave its last rites early this morning, I get pulled back in. She's certainly a fighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 We have the Valerie Harper of invests here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 On 8/26/2016 at 6:52 PM, NJwx85 said: Looking really good right now. Big tower going up to the NE of the center and what appears to be a ring of convection now wrapping around the Western side. Expand Can you describe this ring better? I'm not seeing anything except a blob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 It's not better organized, I'm not sure what you guys are looking at. The wave axis is well west (central Bahamas) of the stronger convection. Shear is still too strong, and won't see it abate for another 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 Latest ASCAT and visible loop shows the wave axis nicely, btw. Convection is definitely still displaced east, but the analyzed shear has dropped to 15-20kt (source: CIMSS). Should head into favorable shear conditions late tonight and tomorrow. We're no longer getting downslope flow off Hispaniola entrained directly into the system, so that's probably part of the reason for the upswing in convective activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 Low level circulation opened even more...but that can help a new LLC build under or near the convection...shear appears to be lesser in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 On 8/26/2016 at 6:52 PM, NJwx85 said: Looking really good right now. Big tower going up to the NE of the center and what appears to be a ring of convection now wrapping around the Western side. Expand Dude, lets be real. It looks like ****. While it is better than it has been it is still a disorganized mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 On 8/26/2016 at 8:42 PM, wxmx said: Low level circulation opened even more...but that can help a new LLC build under or near the convection...shear appears to be lesser in there. Expand Yes. The moisture is all east of the wave axis. West is bone dry. We may see a blob over the east again tonight that spits out another surface eddy tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 On 8/26/2016 at 9:01 PM, Akeem the African Dream said: Dude, lets be real. It looks like ****. While it is better than it has been it is still a disorganized mess. Expand It looked better when I made that post. Agreed that it looks crappy now. Any model showing significant development holds off until reaching the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 I just posted in the general Tropical Atlantic thread and respond with any comments over there but since no one is probably reading that thread right now but something seems like it is developing south of Bermuda. Take a look at the visible loop before we loose daylight. Could it move west below the ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 Sheer is gone now. Start your engine's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 On 8/26/2016 at 3:31 PM, David Reimer said: I want 99L to bite the dust just to shove it in the face of the hypecasters on social media. The amount of hype with this system, even this morning from an accredited meteorologist, makes me want to pull my hair out. Expand CMC develops that and brings it right to the NC coast as a weak system.......NAMS also bring it to the NC coast as a weak low.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 On 8/26/2016 at 10:59 PM, SN_Lover said: Expand This thing may have managed to hold on just long enough... Convection appears to be either really close or on top of the LLVL "COC" (can we even call it a circulation), have had pretty decent DMC for a lot of today on the E/SE quad. Still not likely to develop into anything for another day or two though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 On 8/26/2016 at 11:08 PM, jojo762 said: This thing may have managed to hold on just long enough... Convection appears to be either really close or on top of the LLVL "COC" (can we even call it a circulation), have had pretty decent DMC for a lot of today on the E/SE quad. Still not likely to develop into anything for another day or two though. Expand Yup, convection is now on top of the LLC. Nothing stopping this right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 On 8/26/2016 at 9:19 PM, NJwx85 said: It looked better when I made that post. Agreed that it looks crappy now. Any model showing significant development holds off until reaching the Gulf. Expand It hasn't looked good all day. You must have been looking at another storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 Well.....what have we here?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 The models were dead wrong about conditions being more favorable when it reached the Bahamas. Instead, there is a dry upper trough sitting right on top of this system. Once again, the Atlantic basin is trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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