Hermine

[LakeEffectKing]

[Hugo]

Hey. New Forum.  Pretty sweet. 

[csnavywx]

Cute indeed. It's sitting near/under a shear maximum at the moment (30-35kt of vertical wind shear), but conditions gradually improve from here on out. That is, if there's anything left to develop.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Place your bets if it  prevails or gets ripped to shreds by Cuba and shear.

[bobbutts]

Euro and HWRF and CMC all show some intensifying after it reaches the Gulf.  End of the period they show it anywhere from NC to TX.. Seems like everything from dissipation to major impact are all in the realm of possibilities still. 

[MJO812]

Could the Gfs actually be right predicting a tropical system?

[yoda]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Could the Gfs actually be right predicting a tropical system?

Better chance than the Canadian model

[wxmx]

Looks like a patient in ICU after a major surgery. Tonight will be critical. If it can develop some strong convection near the center, then tomorrow 99L will deal with slightly better upper level conditions.

[WeSuck]

Looks to be re-firing the boosters as we speak: 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/flash-vis-long.html

[Tater Tot]

  New subforum.

 

99L might end up being one of the biggest anticlimaxes since LOST.

[ldub23]

I guess all those hot waters didnt  mean much.

[Morris]

RIP

[Wow]

That was fun.

[SN_Lover]

What a lol storm. Fooled and slams straight into Cuba. 

[NJwx85]

I think this might be the best it has looked in days.

Seems to be a big burst of convection right over or just east of the LLC.

 

[downeastnc]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I think this might be the best it has looked in days.

Seems to be a big burst of convection right over or just east of the LLC.

That loop I am seeing has to be a few days old

[NJwx85]

Just now, downeastnc said:

That loop I am seeing has to be a few days old

Yeah, it didn't paste the correct loop. It seems to be a common occurrence with this website lately. 

[NJwx85]

Here you go, I had to save the file and then upload it.

[SnowlieSnowstormson]

Deep sheer is now becoming much more favorable in that area and there seems to still be a remnant low level circulation that somehow has survived. Convection now popping just east of the center, who knows?

[NJwx85]

 

 

[Morris]

The site sucks with uploading images reverting to the first one posted with the same link.

[Drz1111]

36 minutes ago, SnowlieSnowstormson said:

Deep sheer is now becoming much more favorable in that area and there seems to still be a remnant low level circulation that somehow has survived. Convection now popping just east of the center, who knows?

More favorable for what, planes flying to Europe? 

[hawkeye_wx]

4 hours ago, ldub23 said:

I guess all those hot waters didnt  mean much.

I think tv mets, especially, tend to place too much emphasis on how warm the water is.  This time of year the water is always plenty warm everywhere, throughout the basin.  It's really all about the atmosphere.  The water could be 100 degrees, but if the atmosphere is crap you get 99L.

[BTRWx]

Here's a little inspiration for you all! (Even if you don't approve of TWC)

 

Via Bryan Norcross's Facebook

"Science Is Telling South Florida to Be Ready

So how much do we want to believe modern science? If the science is right, a storm is coming to South Florida on Sunday and will be a threat somewhere on the Gulf coast next week.

This is a tricky one because the tropical blob that’s down at the bottom end of the Bahamas is going to continue to look ugly at least through tomorrow. In fact, it’s so disorganized that it doesn’t qualify for a cone or even a Tropical Storm Watch. So it’s going to be hard to get people to pay attention.

On Saturday the system should be organizing near Nassau in the Bahamas and the most likely track is toward South Florida. By that time we should have a cone and solid intensity forecasts, but that will be late in the game.

On Sunday the best evidence is that the winds will pick up with driving tropical rain. The question, of course, is how much.

The odds say the storm – to be called Hermine (her-MEEN) – will come in as a tropical storm, but it could be quite strong, and there is some chance it intensifies very quickly over the Gulf Stream and makes it to hurricane strength.

There is also a chance that it stays weak and slides on by, though the atmospheric pattern looks favorable for strengthening and the ocean water is extremely warm. The only thing lacking might be time.

It’s too early to tell whether the strongest winds will go over the Keys, Miami-Dade and Broward, or just miss to the south.

The bottom line: be ready to take action quickly on Saturday depending on what develops. Electricity dependent people, boats, and anything vulnerable to strong winds might have to be taken care of.

There’s a chance that shutters may be required. It’s too early to know. But most people in South Florida haven’t used their shutters in 11 years. This would be a good time to check them out, be sure they still work, lubricate them if necessary, and know what you would do if the storm looks like it’s going to really crank up.

It’s too early to know much after that, though the atmospheric conditions look favorable for the storm to continue to strengthen as it moves toward the Gulf. The only thing in the way is the Florida landmass, but the southern part of the peninsula is mostly covered by water, especially this year. So everybody around the Gulf coast, especially Louisiana to Florida, needs to pay close attention to the forecasts this weekend.

Most often, first you’re in the cone and under the spaghetti, then you get a watch, and then a warning, and then you have a day or two to get ready. This scenario is very different, and the timeline is compressed. For South Florida, the information will come much later than we’re used to.

If the science, i.e. the forecast is right, the bad weather will continue into Monday with the winds only slowly dying down and South Florida on the wet side of the system.

I’ll see you on The Weather Channel. Stay tuned and stay aware."

[Jackstraw]

I wouldn't write it off just yest.  Shear is on the wane.  It could head right through the straights without the center interacting with much land.  It is definitely going to have its best shot at organizing in the next 48 hours.  As Hawk said, the atmosphere has been crap but as it improves there is plenty of hot juice to work with.  It still wouldn't surprise me to have a cane in the eastern Gulf by Monday.

[David Reimer]

I want 99L to bite the dust just to shove it in the face of the hypecasters on social media. The amount of hype with this system, even this morning from an accredited meteorologist, makes me want to pull my hair out. 

[WhiteoutWX]

Regarding the Weather Channel article posted above, while yes there is a lot of uncertainty, I think it's a bit ridiculous and a lot of hype to be talking about storm shutters possibly being needed and what not in south Florida...this thing was never going to be a significant threat to the Miami area. Most of the intensity uncertainty has centered on the period for once it is in the Gulf.

[rockchalk83]

11 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

Here's a little inspiration for you all! (Even if you don't approve TWC)

 

Via Bryan Norcross's Facebook

"Science Is Telling South Florida to Be Ready

So how much do we want to believe modern science? If the science is right, a storm is coming to South Florida on Sunday and will be a threat somewhere on the Gulf coast next week.

This is a tricky one because the tropical blob that’s down at the bottom end of the Bahamas is going to continue to look ugly at least through tomorrow. In fact, it’s so disorganized that it doesn’t qualify for a cone or even a Tropical Storm Watch. So it’s going to be hard to get people to pay attention.

On Saturday the system should be organizing near Nassau in the Bahamas and the most likely track is toward South Florida. By that time we should have a cone and solid intensity forecasts, but that will be late in the game.

On Sunday the best evidence is that the winds will pick up with driving tropical rain. The question, of course, is how much.

The odds say the storm – to be called Hermine (her-MEEN) – will come in as a tropical storm, but it could be quite strong, and there is some chance it intensifies very quickly over the Gulf Stream and makes it to hurricane strength.

There is also a chance that it stays weak and slides on by, though the atmospheric pattern looks favorable for strengthening and the ocean water is extremely warm. The only thing lacking might be time.

It’s too early to tell whether the strongest winds will go over the Keys, Miami-Dade and Broward, or just miss to the south.

The bottom line: be ready to take action quickly on Saturday depending on what develops. Electricity dependent people, boats, and anything vulnerable to strong winds might have to be taken care of.

There’s a chance that shutters may be required. It’s too early to know. But most people in South Florida haven’t used their shutters in 11 years. This would be a good time to check them out, be sure they still work, lubricate them if necessary, and know what you would do if the storm looks like it’s going to really crank up.

It’s too early to know much after that, though the atmospheric conditions look favorable for the storm to continue to strengthen as it moves toward the Gulf. The only thing in the way is the Florida landmass, but the southern part of the peninsula is mostly covered by water, especially this year. So everybody around the Gulf coast, especially Louisiana to Florida, needs to pay close attention to the forecasts this weekend.

Most often, first you’re in the cone and under the spaghetti, then you get a watch, and then a warning, and then you have a day or two to get ready. This scenario is very different, and the timeline is compressed. For South Florida, the information will come much later than we’re used to.

If the science, i.e. the forecast is right, the bad weather will continue into Monday with the winds only slowly dying down and South Florida on the wet side of the system.

I’ll see you on The Weather Channel. Stay tuned and stay aware."

The essay from Norcross is from yesterday morning. His tune has changed, somewhat, since then. 

[BTRWx]

4 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

The essay from Norcross is from yesterday morning. His tune has changed, somewhat, since then. 

Thank you for the clarification!  Here is his most recent discussion:

"The tropical system in the southeast Bahamas – Invest 99-L is still struggling this morning, which is encouraging news for the weekend for South Florida. It seems unlikely that a strong storm will suddenly spring to life over the Bahamas and slam the coast.

More likely the system will still be trying to organize as it slides by southeast Florida and the Keys on Sunday increasing the rain and the wind off the ocean, and continuing the rainy, breezy weather into the middle of next week. How rainy and how breezy on Sunday is still an open questions, but not it does not look like it would be at a threatening level.

Unfavorable upper-level winds and dry air have not allowed 99-L to get going. There is still is a pronounced area of spin, and thunderstorms are trying to develop near the center, but until that persists no significant organization can take place. The bottom line: some future development can’t be ruled out, but it will likely take a few days, if it happens.

The atmospheric pattern still looks like it will become more favorable late in the weekend and into next week as the disturbance approaches Florida and then heads toward the Gulf. How much the system can organize over the Bahamas and in the Florida Straits, and how much it interacts with the Florida landmass will determine the starting point for a system moving into the Gulf early next week.

The computer models are forecasting a somewhat favorable pattern over the Gulf for some strengthening, but until we see if the system gains organization over the weekend, there is no hope of predicting what might happen next and who, if anybody, might be threatened on the Gulf coast.

Residents from Louisiana to Florida’s west coast should make it a point to check in over the weekend to see how things are developing. Expect the potential forecast tracks to change wildly until the system gains organization, if it does.

Remember, model and forecast errors are much larger when a system is disorganized. Stay tuned."

[hawkeye_wx]

20 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

...this thing was never going to be a significant threat to the Miami area.

Our best model had a tropical storm/hurricane hitting south Florida for multiple runs.  That cannot just be dismissed as garbage hype with no chance of verifying.