Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 Parts of the subforum, including here in Springfield, might be approaching or breaking August rainfall records with the upcoming storm systems, especially Wednesday-Thursday. SPI currently at 8.14 inches for August (including the 5.99 in less than 6 hours the night of 8/12, and 1.66 on 8/15). The August record is 8.37 set in 1981--and that's likely going down. WPC's latest 7-day QPF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted August 23, 2016 Author Share Posted August 23, 2016 And even though the small Slight risk for tomorrow is currently confined mainly to W IA and E Nebraska, all of MN and W WI are in the Marginal for tomorrow: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html ...EASTERN NEB...NORTHEAST KS...WESTERN/CENTRAL IA...NORTHERN MO...FAR SOUTHEAST SD... THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE LARGE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONTINUED POLEWARD MOISTURE RETURN /SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S/...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REACH EASTERN NEB TO THE MID MS VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL TO SOUTHERN MN AND SOUTHWEST WI TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOBE OF VORTICITY/MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MAY PRECEDE THE PRIMARY NM/CO SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH MAINLY MIDLEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA EARLY. SURFACE HEATING IN THE WAKE OF THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS THROUGH EASTERN NEB...EASTERN SD...NORTHERN MO...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN IA INTO SOUTHWEST MN WITH MUCAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG. MODELS SUGGEST SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING AROUND 500-MB IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY PERIOD MIDLEVEL IMPULSE. THIS COULD INHIBIT MORE ROBUST UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND...STRONGER MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. STRENGTHENING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES SUGGEST SUPERCELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL STORMS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. FURTHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION WITH EAST-NORTHEAST EXTENT ACROSS IA AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ SUGGEST UPSCALE GROWTH WILL BE LIKELY WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE GREATER SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT. ...EASTERN DAKOTAS/MN... THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE LIMITED THAN FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO MN SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE AIR MASS INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND HEIGHT FALLS WHICH SHOULD BE GREATER TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 23/21-24/00Z. THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW/TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO FORM FROM WEST-EAST TUESDAY EVENING...BUT EVENTUAL LOSS OF GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF STORMS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ..PETERS.. 08/22/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 June was dry but July was the 3rd wettest for IL since records began and August will be in the Top ten maybe 5..river levels are now high and soil moisture is high more heavy rain a coming any tropical systems in the next few weeks would be big trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 We could certainly use a break. Hopefully whatever happens around Puerto Rico with the invest will end up on the East Coast but I think there's a chance a Katrina or Ivan like track is possible... Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 1 hour ago, Justin said: We could certainly use a break. Hopefully whatever happens around Puerto Rico with the invest will end up on the East Coast but I think there's a chance a Katrina or Ivan like track is possible... Ugh. Ridge looks to build over top for a while. Question is how fast it breaks down. Slower breakdown would obviously heighten the chance for a system to move farther westward into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 what system and tomorrow looks like an I80 south event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: what system and tomorrow looks like an I80 south event True, we actually have to get something organized first. Euro has had it for 2 or 3 runs but it has been known to fail on occasion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 Tropical system still on the 12z ECMWF. Beast mode, looks like it may be headed for somewhere along the central Gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 lol @ Louisiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 Having returned from a trip to Louisiana two weeks ago before the heaviest rains hit this is one time I hope the Euro is not the King. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 4 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Having returned from a trip to Louisiana two weeks ago before the heaviest rains hit this is one time I hope the Euro is not the King. It would almost be unthinkable if it heads there. Generally speaking, it's a potentially concerning setup even before it may head for the Gulf. Synoptic setup is quite favorable for quick strengthening as it heads for Florida (assuming it hasn't been decimated by Hispaniola or something). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 00z Euro gets significant tropical remnants into the region just beyond the timeframe of this thread. Still a fantasy land scenario but not much else in the way of excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 We're overdue for one of those... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Scattered little but heavy cells popped up over the area very early this morning. I got a couple real nice cells with very heavy rain and good lightning/thunder. My total was 1.43". My August total is up to 6.63". They really got nailed up in far northeast Iowa as a line of storms trained over them for hours. The area near Decorah received up to 8.5". It seems like every storm event this summer has dropped 4-8 inches on somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 1.42" here. More storms on the way in the next half hour. Over 6" here for August as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 ^you're gonna get trained tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 11 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Don't need to wait that long! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 Continue discussion of today's tornado outbreak in this thread: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/48757-august-24-indianaohio-tornado-outbreak/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 Luckily tonight's heavy rain threat along the I-80 corridor isn't looking like too big a deal. Some of the models had been giving us another 2-3", which we definitely don't need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted August 25, 2016 Author Share Posted August 25, 2016 This storm cell in west central MO, which if it holds could reach the Springfield area around 3AM (according to WICS-20's 9PM news on sister Fox station WRSP-55 here in Springfield) have prompted a Thunderstorm Warning in the Boonville, MO area. There had been a Tornado Warning near that area earlier. (Yes, they actually ran a Storm Tracker on that cell all the way to Springfield). BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1028 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN PETTIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... CENTRAL COOPER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... SOUTHEASTERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 1100 PM CDT * AT 1027 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF PILOT GROVE...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF MARSHALL...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MARSHALL...BOONVILLE...FAYETTE...NEW FRANKLIN...PILOT GROVE... ROCHEPORT...NELSON...BLACKWATER...FRANKLIN...WOOLDRIDGE... ARROW ROCK AND LAMINE. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 80 AND 114. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 For today Aug. 25 SPC has placed the St. Louis area northeastward through central IL and IN in a slight risk of severe. Winds seem more unidirectional today compared to yesterday when helicity was optimal but there is an MCV approaching from MO. We'll see what happens. Clear skies throughout much of the affected region at i p.m. EDT. 88/71 presently at Indpls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 Interesting Special Weather Statement THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION. IF YOU OBSERVE A FUNNEL CLOUD...STAY CALM AND SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THE FUNNEL CLOUD HAS PASSED OR DISSIPATED. PLEASE REPORT ANY FUNNEL CLOUD SIGHTINGS TO THE NORTHERN INDIANA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VIA LAW ENFORCEMENT OR SOCIAL MEDIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 Yeah there was a funnel cloud reported in Pulaski county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 Nothing like a surprise morning tornado warning for the East side of Indianapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 Indianapolis cant miss lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 Cool pic from central IN this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 ace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: Cool pic from central IN this morning A different kind of ground scrubber. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 Just got back from having dinner with a friend in Speedway. Had to take numerous detours because of flooded roads from a storm this evening. From 6-7:10 p.m. Indianapolis airport picked up just under 2 inches of rain. The Broad Ripple area was hit by strong straight line winds with numerous trees and branches down from this morning's storm with 20,000 customers out of power for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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