Chinook Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 Former invest 90L, near the Cape Verde Islands, has been designated as Tropical Depression 7. It is expected to intensify steadily for the next 3 days. Posted is a shortened version of NHC Forecast Discussion #1. This might very well be a fish storm, but the GFS full-resolution graphics from TropicalTidbits show intense Cat-5-type sea level pressures in 9 days. (200 hours-ish). So that's something of fantasy-storm, but it will probably hit Cat-1 at the least. Quote The low pressure area located west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has developed a well-defined circulation and sufficient organized convection to be considered a tropical depression. Microwave imagery suggests that the system is likely still consolidating, with two or more vorticity centers rotating around a mean center. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt in agreement with a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 12.1N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 12.4N 31.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 13.2N 34.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 14.5N 37.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 16.2N 39.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 19.7N 44.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 23.8N 50.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 26.8N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 1 hour ago, Chinook said: Former invest 90L, near the Cape Verde Islands, has been designated as Tropical Depression 7. It is expected to intensify steadily for the next 3 days. Posted is a shortened version of NHC Forecast Discussion #1. This might very well be a fish storm, but the GFS full-resolution graphics from TropicalTidbits show intense Cat-5-type sea level pressures in 9 days. (200 hours-ish). So that's something of fantasy-storm, but it will probably hit Cat-1 at the least. A category three is probably a fait accompli. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 I think a category five intensity is more likely if it gets closer to Bermuda, like near 58-65W longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 23, 2016 Author Share Posted August 23, 2016 The last Cat-5 in the Atlantic was Felix (2007) so it has been 9 years. I suppose if we are going to break the Cat-5 drought, it may as well be a non-El Nino year, but I really don't know if anything super-extreme will happen with T.S. Gaston. Mods, feel free to change the name of this thread to T.S. Gaston or Hurricane Gaston as is appropriate Latest satellite image (0300z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 23, 2016 Author Share Posted August 23, 2016 T.S. Gaston has been analyzed to be 55 knots by the NHC. I like the fact that it has organized pretty well in the last 24 hours. It is showing deep convection in pulses, but mainly near the center of circulation now, as of the latest satellite image. NHC expects Gaston to move northwesterly and become a Cat-1 hurricane. That will put it near 50West as a hurricane. T.S. Gaston is at 35W in this image, and Invest 99L is at the longitudes of 55W-60W. The NHC has a considerable discussion about Invest 99L, so you may want to read that if you have interests in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 Gaston seems to be holding on at 65mph despite the shear. Doesn't look great at the moment but the structure is there. Wouldn't be surprised to see a major in a few days as it re-curves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 Yeah, Gaston got tangled up with a big upper low for a while, but now the low is pulling away to the sw so Gaston should be able to ramp up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 Gaston should send at least "some swell" to the east coast. Small by hurricane standards as distance and swell decay are big factor. There could be some 5 foot at 13 second sets if the nhc current forecast holds. That would translate to dangerous surf conditions for average swimmers as its receiving virtually no attention. This coming off a summer when there were virtually no waves on the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 7 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Gaston should send at least "some swell" to the east coast. Small by hurricane standards as distance and swell decay are big factor. There could be some 5 foot at 13 second sets if the nhc current forecast holds. That would translate to dangerous surf conditions for average swimmers as its receiving virtually no attention. This coming off a summer when there were virtually no waves on the east coast Agreed. Its pretty funny some of the local weather channel bozos around here are actually saying that yesterday and today we were seeing some swell from Gaston. In reality 91L has some pretty nice winds and fetch for a 9-11 sec period swell that is just beginning to show around here (especially Outer Banks). A few of my buddies went to Rodanthe yesterday and I saw pics of slick glass 4' sets when that light front was sliding through our region. Local winds are starting to mess it up now and probably will stay onshore for most of it (seems like it always happens). Anyhow, you gotta love hurricane season In other news when is the thread for 91L? This thing looks atleast 2x better than the mess down by Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 Gaston is the first major cane of the Atlantic season http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/282031.shtml BULLETIN HURRICANE GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2016 ...GASTON STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 55.1W ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 9 hours ago, VBsurf said: Agreed. Its pretty funny some of the local weather channel bozos around here are actually saying that yesterday and today we were seeing some swell from Gaston. In reality 91L has some pretty nice winds and fetch for a 9-11 sec period swell that is just beginning to show around here (especially Outer Banks). A few of my buddies went to Rodanthe yesterday and I saw pics of slick glass 4' sets when that light front was sliding through our region. Local winds are starting to mess it up now and probably will stay onshore for most of it (seems like it always happens). Anyhow, you gotta love hurricane season In other news when is the thread for 91L? This thing looks atleast 2x better than the mess down by Cuba. This is looking real real good for the east coast now. Not epic huge but we should have several days head high now with over head sets at stand outs like the obx and ruggles Rhode Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Going for the annularity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 It has gotten close to that look. Nice big eye you got there Gaston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 has that LUIS 1995 look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Yeah, Gaston has become a real beauty today with the huge, sharp eye and deep convective ring... nature at its finest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Save the image, it maybe years before we get another one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 14 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: Yeah, Gaston has become a real beauty today with the huge, sharp eye and deep convective ring... nature at its finest. Yep. Always good to see it on a fish. Hopefully it weakens as forecast before reaching the Azores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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