hawkeye_wx Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 If you want to see something wild, check out the 10-day loop of the euro for the western Pacific region. It has Lionrock moving southwest toward Okinawa, then reversing back northeast and strengthening into a strong typhoon. Then, in a Sandy-like scenario, it gets caught by a digging upper low, turns northwest across Japan and gets launched all the way back across Manchuria and into eastern Mongolia. The entire pattern from north Asia to Alaska looks like it suddenly reverses and flows backward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 7 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: If you want to see something wild, check out the 10-day loop of the euro for the western Pacific region. It has Lionrock moving southwest toward Okinawa, then reversing back northeast and strengthening into a strong typhoon. Then, in a Sandy-like scenario, it gets caught by a digging upper low, turns northwest across Japan and gets launched all the way back across Manchuria and into eastern Mongolia. The entire pattern from north Asia to Alaska looks like it suddenly reverses and flows backward. Going to be in Tokyo next week for meeting, maybe I will get smacked by Lionrock, watching it closely, cool track.. EURO/GFS have it pretty strong as it move up towards Japan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 12z GFS just caved to Euro and now shows a Sandy-style phase resulting in a Japan strike: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 Wow that looks bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 A few days ago I saw T.S. Lionrock on the Navy Tropical Cyclone web site. It didn't look too strong, but I thought "Lionrock is the coolest sounding name." I wonder how they came up with that name on the West Pacific name-list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 6 minutes ago, Chinook said: A few days ago I saw T.S. Lionrock on the Navy Tropical Cyclone web site. It didn't look too strong, but I thought "Lionrock is the coolest sounding name." I wonder how they came up with that name on the West Pacific name-list. it's named after a mountain in HK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Gonna be a real test for Tokyo, that's for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 I've been watching Lionrock very closely for the past couple of days. The consistency of the ECMWF solution coupled with the trend of other guidance towards it is certainly ominous. For now, it's a good compact little system. Looks like all systems go for strengthening to me, at least in the short term. I've actually posted a blog recently largely focusing on Lionrock with updates coming in the comments section if anyone cares to give it a read. Western Pacific Tropical Analysis: August 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Lionrock analyzed at 100 kts by JTWC JTWC prognostic discussion Aug 24, 15z Quote RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TY 12W HAS BEEN ABLE TO INSULATE ITSELF AND MAINTAIN RADIAL OUTFLOW DESPITE WEAKENING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND CONVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO 5.5 (102 KNOTS). TY 12W IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 That 12Z EC run was wild. EPS is in lock-step as far as track is concerned, so that's a bit ominous. Amazing to see a global model tank it into the 910s and maintain 920s right up until landfall. Definitely a Sandy-esque type evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 Euro is the only model showing capture now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 While some members of guidance did shift east, it looks to me that the ECMWF still has support for its general solution. As perhaps is expected, the EPS remains very dialed in with the operational's solution. The ECMWF/EPS solution did shift up the Honshu coast some though, so that trend is definitely something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 And just like that, the 18Z GFS returns to the capture solution albeit crossing northern Honshu this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 8 minutes ago, gymengineer said: And just like that, the 18Z GFS returns to the capture solution albeit crossing northern Honshu this time. Noncapture is already east of the capture solutions by 48hrs. This has everything to do with how far east the storm goes in the short run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 The GFS has been the main problem child for a consistent solution showing trough capture, kinda wiggling about between the two solutions. Considering how many GEFS members show landfall though, I highly doubt Lionrock escapes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 GFS and Euro now agree somewhat on a late capture, and landfall in northern Japan. Tokyo will dodge the bullet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 Now Typhoon Lionrock has been analyzed to be at the strength of 115 kt. This is impressive. JTWC forecast has 75kt before landfall on Aug 30, 00z. I am not sure if they are thinking it will weaken below 75kt before its landfall (after 00z August 30) on northern Japan. As has been mentioned before, Lionrock will be captured by a mid-latitude trough and rotate back in towards China eventually. This is reminiscent of Sandy. So it is a really weird situation. Quote TYPHOON (TY) 12W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT A COMPACT, STRENGTHENING CORE (APPROXIMATELY 60-NM DIAMETER EYEWALL) WITH A 28-NM ROUND EYE, WHICH PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST. ... HOWEVER, CORE CONVECTION REMAINS VIGOROUS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE MAINTAINED AT T6.0 (115 KNOTS). CONSEQUENTLY, THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL ERC AND DECREASING SATCON ESTIMATES OF 109 KNOTS MAY SIGNAL A WEAKENING TREND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 Pretty sweet capture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 It's interesting to see how quickly this transitioned from a classic WPac looking typhoon to something that actually resembles Sandy '12 (a little over 12 hours) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 This is absolutely Japan's Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 mid-day Aug 29 - Typhoon Lionrock starting to feel the effects of strong shear (I think) southeast of Tokyo. As of now (after 00z Aug 30) Lionrock is analyzed to be 55kt and fairly close to northern Japan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 30, 2016 Author Share Posted August 30, 2016 The euro got the capture scenario right, but initially had it getting pulled into southern Japan in a much stronger state. It ended up taking the scenic route up into far northern Japan, so was able to lose quite a bit of its punch. It's interesting to follow this kind of stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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