CT Valley Snowman Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 I was glued to TWC as a 13 year old kid but there was not much excitement at a friends house on the north side of Springfield,Ma being too far west. Definitely awesome watching the footage from SE NE. Like others have alluded to, a more direct hit from Cat 3 or God forbid 4 (with the Atlantic so warm its not impossible) would be a huge blow with the dense forestry and amount of coastal development here in SNE,not to mention our fragile economies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 Just imagine the damage and destruction Cape Cod and especially Harwich and Chatham would go through if a category three or higher hurricane made it to a landfall on Cape Cod? Unimaginable and with the SSTs able to sustain a hurricane through 40N latitude, it wouldn't weaken much if it made landfall over Falmouth, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 3 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Just imagine the damage and destruction Cape Cod and especially Harwich and Chatham would go through if a category three or higher hurricane made it to a landfall on Cape Cod? Unimaginable and with the SSTs able to sustain a hurricane through 40N latitude, it wouldn't weaken much if it made landfall over Falmouth, MA. Alex at least showed us that it was possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 Largest surf I'd ever seen out here. Cloudbreak stuff. Walls of whitewater from swells breaking already beyond the horizon. Was following every move on the wx channel. Day before was in a sailboat race in ACK Sound. Half way through, the NWS update was ominous. Most bailed on the race. Owner of the boat wanted my opinion on what to do with his boat. He kept it at Padanaram. I said keep it here cuz the track looked like Gloria's. He said no, he'd go back and take his chances. Wind was cranking NW at the time, so I said at the very least, wait until 2am when wind would go light SE. He was glad he did. He got his boat all secured on a LONG scope when he arrived early that morning. His was one of very few boats that didn't sink. Lucky man. Back here my anemometer was peaking at 85-95mph in the afternoon. Pretty good flooding downtown in the low areas. Bob was a very dry storm for us. The air was saturated with salt spray and all the trees ended up defoliated. 2 weeks later, all the lilacs and other flowering shrubs started blooming again. Cool storm. The old timers always talk about Esther in '61. I can see why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 8 hours ago, Tater Tot said: Alex at least showed us that it was possible. careful with this example, tho - this image of Alex is situated nearly collocated with the Gulf Stream, which during August of any year ... is pretty damn hot even at that latitude. the Gulf Stream high-tails it parabolically east well prior to our latitude, and you have to know something about the standard model for oceanic circulation in the Atlantic (not that you don't - just in general). most the graphics available to general web-consumption are two "cartoony" in nature ... and don't describe enough, all import more local-scaled climate modulation regions. such as, coastal New England and the upper MA. the coastal waters of these regions ...extending out several hundred miles, is actually above the warm conveyor Gulf Stream and the flow there perpetually delivers cold water from the far NW Atlantic Basin - look up Labrador Current. it is modulated warmer in the summer, and ... this is actually quite evident this particular season speak of the devil, warm surface water as far N as Long Island can evolve - but the thermocline is quite shallow and gossamer ...mixing out at the drop of a hat. i was discussing this a while ago in this thread, supposition: if a TC happened to time perfectly with the climate max for SSTs E of NJ, it may benefit and hold more tropical characteristics farther N along its trek than usual. by and large, however, you are not likely to ever see Alex' type of structure over Montauk Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 That would be awesome though Tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: careful with this example, tho - this image of Alex is situated nearly collocated with the Gulf Stream, which during August of any year ... is pretty damn hot even at that latitude. the Gulf Stream high-tails it parabolically east well prior to our latitude, and you have to know something about the standard model for oceanic circulation in the Atlantic (not that you don't - just in general). most the graphics available to general web-consumption are two "cartoony" in nature ... and don't describe enough, all import more local-scaled climate modulation regions. such as, coastal New England and the upper MA. the coastal waters of these regions ...extending out several hundred miles, is actually above the warm conveyor Gulf Stream and the flow there perpetually delivers cold water from the far NW Atlantic Basin - look up Labrador Current. it is modulated warmer in the summer, and ... this is actually quite evident this particular season speak of the devil, warm surface water as far N as Long Island can evolve - but the thermocline is quite shallow and gossamer ...mixing out at the drop of a hat. i was discussing this a while ago in this thread, supposition: if a TC happened to time perfectly with the climate max for SSTs E of NJ, it may benefit and hold more tropical characteristics farther N along its trek than usual. by and large, however, you are not likely to ever see Alex' type of structure over Montauk Long Island. Definitely some truth there, but we can't ignore the shear and dry air entrainment aspect. The latter can kill off even the best looking TC in the Gulf of Mexico, let alone New England. And the former will be ever present at these latitudes. Obviously it can happen, but we really do need to thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 4 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Definitely some truth there, but we can't ignore the shear and dry air entrainment aspect. The latter can kill off even the best looking TC in the Gulf of Mexico, let alone New England. And the former will be ever present at these latitudes. Obviously it can happen, but we really do need to thread the needle. absolutely! that was also discussed .. .the aspect about entrainment and how almost all "TC" up this far are already in the throws of transition ... it is as usual a question of rates of change - we can imagine scenarios where transition is slower to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: absolutely! that was also discussed .. .the aspect about entrainment and how almost all "TC" up this far are already in the throws of transition ... it is as usual a question of rates of change - we can imagine scenarios where transition is slower to occur. Good points. Something like the 38 Long Island express ,where a storm gets caught up in a extremely fast flow and doesn't have time to rapidly weaken, is probably still our most likely scenario for CAT 3 /4 type winds here in New England with the forward speed and momentum causing greater winds and surge than what the statistics of said storm would imply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 Oh wow, I didn't realize how perfectly Alex rode the gulf stream. I thought he was just an example of the best that a storm could possibly look that far north. I knew the coastal waters were much cooler, but I figured they didn't extend far out enough to have much effect until right at the time of landfall. And of course dry air and shear will always be an issue, but assuming the hypothetical scenario where both conditions are at their lowest, and cause minimum disruptions... what's the best a storm could look? The 1938 scenario is the most likely to bring cat3+ conditions to NE, but don't all the super-fast-moving storms have godawful satellite and radar presentation, like Juan? I'm not thinking about how strong a NE hurricane could be as much as I'm wondering how tropical the storm could remain in nature, and how classic of a structure is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 I would say if we could get a picture of Hurricane Edna hitting the Cape she would look pretty decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 There's radar data of Edna but you could probably analyze these pictures better with your eyes closed. http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/106016.pdf http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0469(1958)015<0264:EROHE>2.0.CO%3B2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 9 hours ago, Tater Tot said: Oh wow, I didn't realize how perfectly Alex rode the gulf stream. I thought he was just an example of the best that a storm could possibly look that far north. I knew the coastal waters were much cooler, but I figured they didn't extend far out enough to have much effect until right at the time of landfall. And of course dry air and shear will always be an issue, but assuming the hypothetical scenario where both conditions are at their lowest, and cause minimum disruptions... what's the best a storm could look? The 1938 scenario is the most likely to bring cat3+ conditions to NE, but don't all the super-fast-moving storms have godawful satellite and radar presentation, like Juan? I'm not thinking about how strong a NE hurricane could be as much as I'm wondering how tropical the storm could remain in nature, and how classic of a structure is possible. that's precisely that idea - the paraphrasing goes like... 1 ... the baseline expectation is that TCs are always losing/compromising there tropical characteristics prior to succeeding our latitude; 2 ... *however* they don't always decay and or convert at the same rate, because of environmental parameters in situ each scenario may be more(less) detrimental; therein, there is room to hypothesis means as to how to keep conditions more conducive. Just looking at that Esther track/intensity scheme above ... that system was still Category 4 near the latitude of southern NJ. If that TC had move 50 to 100 miles west of that ... and accelerated? the environmental conditions prior to and during may be worth exploring.. Then you have Gloria; that system was briefly a Category 5 out ENE of the Bahamas ...then, Category 4 for awhile... but by the time it got abeam of Cape Hatteras it started weakening significantly/fast.. I think it was barely Category 1 by the time it went across the western end of LI/CT moving at some 45 or 50 mph. The 1938 legend was significantly stronger at landfall in similar area, showing that set-up plays a roll in intensity maintenance. which is all this is probably more obvious than not.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 38 had a Sandy-like warm seclusion helping to slow the weakening process. It helped keep the tropical characteristics while the system itself what being captured by the upper level system southwest of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 38 had a Sandy-like warm seclusion helping to slow the weakening process. It helped keep the tropical characteristics while the system itself what being captured by the upper level system southwest of SNE. fascinating - ...how did/do the researchers make that assessment? i mean i don't challenge it; i just think that's interesting. seeing as Sandy had something similar .. perhaps also, noticed the last of '38's track was actually gaining longitude again. maybe there is something to that seclusion being common among 'freaks'/capture scenarios that 'left hook' at higher latitudes. heh, i still can't get over the foot + early season snow along the roof top of the midriff cordillera, while Sandy raged ashore... It makes me pause over all those GGEM solutions over the past 15 years that inevitably at some point during the autumn season, completely fused/integrated a full bird 'cane into a mid-latitude cyclone along the MA... Sandy wasn't THAT, no..but schit if sniff the same ballpark franks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: fascinating - ...how did/do the researchers make that assessment? i mean i don't challenge it; i just think that's interesting. seeing as Sandy had something similar .. perhaps also, noticed the last of '38's track was actually gaining longitude again. maybe there is something to that seclusion being common among 'freaks'/capture scenarios that 'left hook' at higher latitudes. heh, i still can't get over the foot + early season snow along the roof top of the midriff cordillera, while Sandy raged ashore... It makes me pause over all those GGEM solutions over the past 15 years that inevitably at some point during the autumn season, completely fused/integrated a full bird 'cane into a mid-latitude cyclone along the MA... Sandy wasn't THAT, no..but schit if sniff the same ballpark franks.. There is a paper on that...I'll see if I can find it. Perhaps it was a presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 Wish I had a cool Bob story to tell. I'm getting really impatient sitting here waiting for the next Carol or 1938. It's becoming apparent that I'll have to travel if I want to experience a nice forest blowdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: fascinating - ...how did/do the researchers make that assessment? 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: There is a paper on that...I'll see if I can find it. Perhaps it was a presentation. Abstract only, but maybe this? https://ams.confex.com/ams/92Annual/webprogram/Paper201950.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 Presentation by the same author if any tropical weenies want to dim the lights, light a candle, and open a bottle of wine to enjoy. https://www.wcsu.edu/weatherconference/presentations-fourth/Robert Hart/WCSU2012.pptx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 Pretty cool seeing the reanalysis of the 1893 NY hurricane. I wasn't aware that it could have been a Fujiwara interaction that slung it into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 Ahh that's it. Thanks Chris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 I slept through Hurricane Bob as a one year old about to turn two years old at the time. So I wasn't old enough to remember anything from the hurricane. I can only imagine looking at the youtube clip of Bob Hope and Jim Cantore discussing the progress of Bob as he came into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 I was so disappointed....completely and utterly lame in my hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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