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All-purpose Thunderstorm Discussion Thread II


CT Rain

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Just now, Bostonseminole said:

anything interesting today?

SPC

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...NEW ENGLAND...
   BAND OF SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
   WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF COLD FRONT TODAY AND
   SWEEP EWD ACROSS THIS REGION.  WLY DEEP-SHEAR VECTORS WITH 30-40 KT
   EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION TO THIS
   ACTIVITY...AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...WITH
   WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT SFC
   HEATING...AND ONLY NARROW RIBBON OF MRGLLY FAVORABLE RETURN-FLOW
   MOISTURE IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING FRONT...BUOYANCY WILL BE QUITE
   LIMITED.  

 

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Sunday is a little interesting on the 18z GFS.  Some room to destabilize and pretty rich presence of low-level moisture if we warm sector.  Timing of best winds aloft could be off but GFS does steepen lapse rates during the day with strong CAA in the mid-levels...could really boost cape if dews approach 70F.

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