ineedsnow Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Swirling low level clouds definitely scud but sooo cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 It has the look of that WAA convection that really has yet to root into the boundary layer. You'll know it's really surface based once it starts right turning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Just some run-of-the-mill fail for my backyard. Make America wet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Just now, OceanStWx said: It's the best looking one out there. "Tallest" core, nice overhang. Definitely some rotation with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 True right movers today should be moving E at worse, most likely ESE or SE based on regional special soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Mets.. What is timeframe to look at this evening/tonight for things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Bit of spin there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Mets.. What is timeframe to look at this evening/tonight for things? After this round HRRR is kind of all fizzle no sizzle, but it would probably take that stuff in PA until after 00z to get into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 18 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: After this round HRRR is kind of all fizzle no sizzle, but it would probably take that stuff in PA until after 00z to get into SNE. Why you think the models are doing that...parameters appear to further become favorable and we have the height falls and such. Do you think that these hi res focus too much on forcing alone..like if forcing isn't crazy strong they develop nothing? Would be a far cry from when they loved cape lol and popped anything in big cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Just now, weatherwiz said: Why you think the models are doing that...parameters appear to further become favorable and we have the height falls and such. Do you think that these hi res focus too much on forcing alone..like if forcing isn't crazy strong they develop nothing? Would be a far cry from when they loved cape lol and popped anything in big cape Models are always better with coherent forcing. Open warm sector convection is just hard to model period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Models are always better with coherent forcing. Open warm sector convection is just hard to model period. Makes sense. 18z NAM sounding for BDL at 0z is nudity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Wife reported some swirling clouds and rain blowing from different directions along with loud thunder about an hour ago. Line in Pennsylvania seems to be heading towards the south coast and New York City, not much development right now in Central and Eastern New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epicnova Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 So is there any chance for strong storms in SE New England today, or are we out of luck once again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 11 minutes ago, Epicnova said: So is there any chance for strong storms in SE New England today, or are we out of luck once again? Prob late evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Delayed camping a day, so now we'll all get nothing. Sorry in advance guys...Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Llvl beginning to crank now and that should further enhance and largen hodographs towards evening. One thing that we lacked was stronger 0-1km shear I think but that is increasing. With ample heating going on and increasing moisture/theta-e we will become very unstable. While forcing won't be overly strong the presence of weak height falls could be enough. Not sure if we see a TOR threat as activity may be more linear but severe threat should still exist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epicnova Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Prob late evening I hope so. We need the rain, and I need the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 I just wonder if we see any cells develop in front of the line...that's what could lead to issues towards/around 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 The sun is out here. Maybe it helps us a little. Hoping for some rain maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Wish the god damn warm front would lift north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Ryan pretty much ruling out storms tonight. Just very isolated if that he said on air. What the hell happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ryan pretty much ruling out storms tonight. Just very isolated if that he said on air. What the hell happened? A little capping, poor lapse rates, need a bigger trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 this was a 4-hour bad timing frustration ... writing was on the wall if you ask me. i mentioned this morning that the warm front appeared retarded - maybe ct we may yet warm sector, but we aren't getting any sun help from it ... to late. we'll see what other triggers/mechanics can do to offset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 16, 2016 Author Share Posted August 16, 2016 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: A little capping, poor lapse rates, need a bigger trigger. Models really don't like those storms over E PA as they trek east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Just now, CT Rain said: Models really don't like those storms over E PA as they trek east. They really don't. Never bet on a warm front to help out around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Big BWER out by Oswego, where warm fronts actually move north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 We'll just have to see...mesos don't seem to like it but the ingredients will certainly be there. If we can keep MLcape values high with increasing shear and weak height falls I can't see how we don't get something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Well if that line fizzles or something doesn't fire ahead of it..There's still the stuff way out in WNY that has to come thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.