CT Rain Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 I like the SPC outlook with slight risk to our west tomorrow - but could be interesting by evening as low level shear ramps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 38 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I like the SPC outlook with slight risk to our west tomorrow - but could be interesting by evening as low level shear ramps up. Like the look, especially back in CNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 I'm already pre-aggravated for tomorrows disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 1 hour ago, CT Rain said: I like the SPC outlook with slight risk to our west tomorrow - but could be interesting by evening as low level shear ramps up. I haven't had time to look much. What time do you think the timing is for here? Working until 5 and would like to chase but traffic sucks at that time. Rockledge is always a good place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 Big theta-e push tomorrow evening as well. Even though srfc warm front may be north at the time, always like the look of high MU CAPE. Tomorrow afternoon is progged for now across western and SW SNE, but could spread east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Big theta-e push tomorrow evening as well. Even though srfc warm front may be north at the time, always like the look of high MU CAPE. Tomorrow afternoon is progged for now across western and SW SNE, but could spread east. Severe threat with AM warm front? Maybe a Long Island special or coastal CT...possible TOR possibility? NAM also has tornado potential in afternoon...gotta watch Sfc winds and when llvl jet increases. Storm mode will be important too...should end up linear but could see embedded mesos or maybe discrete initially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 Ryan says NAM definitely has a TOR threat tomorrow along the warm front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Severe threat with AM warm front? Maybe a Long Island special or coastal CT...possible TOR possibility? NAM also has tornado potential in afternoon...gotta watch Sfc winds and when llvl jet increases. Storm mode will be important too...should end up linear but could see embedded mesos or maybe discrete initially 22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ryan says NAM definitely has a TOR threat tomorrow along the warm front It's there. The 4km hangs the front up in northern MA (based on the wind fields). The front will at least be E/W versus NW/SE, so storms should be able to follow the front rather than just cross it briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It's there. The 4km hangs the front up in northern MA (based on the wind fields). The front will at least be E/W versus NW/SE, so storms should be able to follow the front rather than just cross it briefly. That's a pretty nice look on the NAM. Definitely a risk wherever it hangs up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 Just looking at things now, almost looks like front hangs up near and south of pike tomorrow aftn on the 4km NAM. That's a potent look down in CT and RI and maybe even SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 The latest convective outlook mentioned the "conditional tornado risk" as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 11 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: The latest convective outlook mentioned the "conditional tornado risk" as well. And a conditional higher end tornado risk at that (for New England of course). Talking with Ryan, he's right, some models popping off 30+ knots of 0-1km shear tomorrow. That's more than enough for a quick EF2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 15, 2016 Author Share Posted August 15, 2016 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: And a conditional higher end tornado risk at that (for New England of course). Talking with Ryan, he's right, some models popping off 30+ knots of 0-1km shear tomorrow. That's more than enough for a quick EF2. ECMWF doesn't look as bullish to me but still intruguing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 The 4Km NAM was impressive tomorrow. Sick hodos in srn CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 18Z nam stilll pretty impressive behind the front. Winds are still backed to more srly with westerly flow aloft at 850 and above. If round 2 comes in from NY state...seems like spinner threat is there. Nothing really set in stone as both WF placement and round 2 stuff aren't exactly in agreement...but setup is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 15, 2016 Author Share Posted August 15, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 18Z nam stilll pretty impressive behind the front. Winds are still backed to more srly with westerly flow aloft at 850 and above. If round 2 comes in from NY state...seems like spinner threat is there. Nothing really set in stone as both WF placement and round 2 stuff aren't exactly in agreement...but setup is interesting. Yeah 18z NAM gets really sweet around midnight tomorrow night FWIW. 12km NAM is almost 4 on the STP which is pretty impressive. Still a threat during the day with low level wind remaining backed. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 Where is warm front likely to sit? Right around I-90? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 29 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yeah 18z NAM gets really sweet around midnight tomorrow night FWIW. 12km NAM is almost 4 on the STP which is pretty impressive. Still a threat during the day with low level wind remaining backed. We'll see. The 4km 18z bufkit for BDL is pretty jaw dropping for tomorrow evening. That hodograph is about as good as it gets here combined with the instability. Lapse rates aren't really pathetic either (6 C/KM)...but that shear of 30-35 m/s is pretty impressive. 0-6km cape between 250-300 J as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 Are their any notable severe weather analogs from the past that tomorrow might compare to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 16 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Are their any notable severe weather analogs from the past that tomorrow might compare to? meh I would't really focus all too much on analogs when it comes to convective events really. In the end, it all comes down to timing and getting all the best parameters to line up...some events that will happen and others it won't. We can have a setup pinging 5/31/98 as an analog but if timing is different it's not going to pan out that way. Right now we are seeing favorable parameters for not only severe weather but a few tornadoes but its a matter of how everything comes together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 The 5-9 timeframe I think is period to watch. The 0z NAM continues to be quite impressive and maximizes cape/shear during the evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LikesNaturesFury Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The 5-9 timeframe I think is period to watch. The 0z NAM continues to be quite impressive and maximizes cape/shear during the evening Where? What zones/areas? Any hope for northeast RI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 44 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The 5-9 timeframe I think is period to watch. The 0z NAM continues to be quite impressive and maximizes cape/shear during the evening lost the am stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 8 minutes ago, LikesNaturesFury said: Where? What zones/areas? Any hope for northeast RI? I would think the better tornado threat would be for areas further west...Hudson Valley into N NJ and into western/central CT. One question is timing and nocturnal tornadoes are very tough to come by here (although the models do keep the ingredients for that in lace well into the evening) but another question is storm mode and by that point I think activity will become more linear so wind damage would be primary threat but can't rule out an embedded meso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 I'm somewhat intrigued by the level of low level shear being depicted tomorrow in the Hudson Valley/perhaps eastward into western portions of the region. That tornado near Indianapolis today happened in a similar low level environment, although the poor mid level lapse rates with a real lack of an EML and modest deep layer shear still don't exactly scream full blown supercells. Would help if you could maximize the level of 0-3 km MLCAPE via augmentation of the low level lapse rates (the Indy tornado occurred on a gradient of this). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Great time to be pitching a tent tomorrow in the catskills just outside of Hunter mtn. ...hope i don't end up killing my family.Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LikesNaturesFury Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 40 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I would think the better tornado threat would be for areas further west...Hudson Valley into N NJ and into western/central CT. One question is timing and nocturnal tornadoes are very tough to come by here (although the models do keep the ingredients for that in lace well into the evening) but another question is storm mode and by that point I think activity will become more linear so wind damage would be primary threat but can't rule out an embedded meso Sry, not looking for tornadoes, just looking for a t-storm. Any hope for NE RI? Tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 I threw a chance in my forecast for south-central Ontario and southern eastern Ontario. Looks pretty solid. 1000 MUCAPE and very strong low-level shear with low LCLs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epicnova Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 How does it look for the Seekonk MA (SE New England) area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 16, 2016 Author Share Posted August 16, 2016 NCAR ensembles remain bullish but most of the other hires stuff keeps things pretty quiet over SNE until 0z. That's definitely the concern today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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