Winter 2016-17 Discussion

[GTAWX1993]

I find that in the Great Lakes, usually years that have mid-November pattern changes to cold after warm starts are the ones that are most likely to lead to cold December's (Like 2008, 2005, and 2000).

Years where November was warm virtually the entire month (Like 2015, 2011, 2001, and 1999), and years where it was more cold early in the month than later in the month relative to normal (Like 2012, 2006, and 1998) are more likely to lead to mild December's. Even years where November is cold for virtually the entire month (Like 2014, 1997, and 1996) are more likely to lead to mild December's than the years that have sustainable early November warmth and then a mid-month pattern change to cold.

The 2nd half of November could potentially be our test, although November 2009 was warm for virtually the entire month, and December that year was near to slightly below normal here.

[RogueWaves]

On 11/8/2016 at 8:32 PM, GTAWX1993 said:

I find that in the Great Lakes, usually years that have mid-November pattern changes to cold after warm starts are the ones that are most likely to lead to cold December's (Like 2008, 2005, and 2000).

Years where November was warm virtually the entire month (Like 2015, 2011, 2001, and 1999), and years where it was more cold early in the month than later in the month relative to normal (Like 2012, 2006, and 1998) are more likely to lead to mild December's. Even years where November is cold for virtually the entire month (Like 2014, 1997, and 1996) are more likely to lead to mild December's than the years that have sustainable early November warmth and then a mid-month pattern change to cold.

The 2nd half of November could potentially be our test, although November 2009 was warm for virtually the entire month, and December that year was near to slightly below normal here.

Nice observations on November trends.

[michsnowfreak]

On Tuesday, November 08, 2016 at 8:32 PM, GTAWX1993 said:

I find that in the Great Lakes, usually years that have mid-November pattern changes to cold after warm starts are the ones that are most likely to lead to cold December's (Like 2008, 2005, and 2000).

Years where November was warm virtually the entire month (Like 2015, 2011, 2001, and 1999), and years where it was more cold early in the month than later in the month relative to normal (Like 2012, 2006, and 1998) are more likely to lead to mild December's. Even years where November is cold for virtually the entire month (Like 2014, 1997, and 1996) are more likely to lead to mild December's than the years that have sustainable early November warmth and then a mid-month pattern change to cold.

The 2nd half of November could potentially be our test, although November 2009 was warm for virtually the entire month, and December that year was near to slightly below normal here.

Good observations! And welcome to the board!

[DAFF]

Found this scale of snow quality on a Snowmaking website, thought it was worth passing along...

	Snow Quality	Description
	1	Snow cannot be packed, powder
	2	Snow can only be packed into a loose ball that falls apart
	3	Snow can be packed into a ball that can be broken apart
	4	Snow can be packed into a dense ball that does not change color when squeezed
	5	Snow can be packed into a dense ball that changes to a darker color when squeezed but little or no water comes out
	6	Snow can be packed into a dense ball that discharges water when squeezed

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Recent mid range runs for December including the Parallel Euro are full weenie. Cold, cold, and snow

[BuffaloWeather]

2 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Recent mid range runs for December including the Parallel Euro are full weenie. Cold, cold, and snow

Yeah, Long range Euro weeklies look good. December into Early January will be the best part of winter I believe. Most long range models/analogs have the Polar Vortex strengthening later in winter which would hinder arctic outbreaks.

[michsnowfreak]

13 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah, Long range Euro weeklies look good. December into Early January will be the best part of winter I believe. Most long range models/analogs have the Polar Vortex strengthening later in winter which would hinder arctic outbreaks.

It will be so nice to have a snowy christmas!!! We had a good stretch in the early 2000s then we haven't had a true white Christmas since 2012! Even during the historic winter of 2013-14, when we spent most of the winter buried in umprecedentedly deep snow and had snow cover the ground continuously from early December to late March, the snow depth briefly went to a T on Dec 23-25. Can't make it up lol. Winters with unprecedented snowcover/depth here would be 2013-14, followed by 2014-15 then 1977-78, and none of the 3 had a white Christmas. The quirks of mother nature. 

 

Unsure about late winter, but I am not convinced we can ever have a subpar February snow wise again. The amount of snow that has fallen in February the last decade or so is like nothing I have ever seen before. It's more anomalous than even March 2012 imo. 

[BuffaloWeather]

5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

It will be so nice to have a snowy christmas!!! We had a good stretch in the early 2000s then we haven't had a true white Christmas since 2012! Even during the historic winter of 2013-14, when we spent most of the winter buried in umprecedentedly deep snow and had snow cover the ground continuously from early December to late March, the snow depth briefly went to a T on Dec 23-25. Can't make it up lol. Winters with unprecedented snowcover/depth here would be 2013-14, followed by 2014-15 then 1977-78, and none of the 3 had a white Christmas. The quirks of mother nature. 

 

Unsure about late winter, but I am not convinced we can ever have a subpar February snow wise again. The amount of snow that has fallen in February the last decade or so is like nothing I have ever seen before. It's more anomalous than even March 2012 imo. 

I completely agree. December is my favorite month to have winter in. Like you said the last few winters I was wearing shorts on Christmas, so hopefully this winter is a change.

[Jonger]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I completely agree. December is my favorite month to have winter in. Like you said the last few winters I was wearing shorts on Christmas, so hopefully this winter is a change.

I would rather have -5F departure in December and a 0 to +2F in January, February and March. I want to ride my sled, have a white Christmas and simply enjoy winter. By March, if I'm not riding my snowmobile, I'd rather be above normal. It seems like our winters start later and end later now days, cutting into spring.

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, Jonger said:

I would rather have -5F departure in December and a 0 to +2F in January, February and March. I want to ride my sled, have a white Christmas and simply enjoy winter. By March, if I'm not riding my snowmobile, I'd rather be above normal. It seems like our winters start later and end later now days, cutting into spring.

I'm with you as well, by Mid March if it's not snowing bring on 2012 March!

[Jonger]

10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm with you as well, by Mid March if it's not snowing bring on 2012 March!

Maybe push that back 3 weeks, I like apples and cherries.

[Hoosier]

Started a medium/long range winter thread:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49248-winter-2016-2017-mediumlong-range-discussion/

 

[Hoosier]

LOT's winter forecast is out for anyone interested.

[BuffaloWeather]

Let the ski season commence!

[Jebman]

This will be a mega winter long remembered in the Midwest and in New England.

Throughout the winter, which will last well into the late spring, jebwalks will be characterized by crippling cold and ridiculous amounts of snow accumulation. The Midwest in particular will be battered into submission by epic Siberian airmass after epic Siberian airmass. The Northeast will get smashed by a few of the Midwestern airmasses. By late July 2017, the record books for the Midwest and Northeast will need to be completely rewritten, in terms of crazy frigid temperatures and in terms of unbelievably deep snowpack, some of which will persist into meteorological summer. I am not referring to the mountains, either.

By mid January of the New Year, many in the Midwest and in the typical lake effect communities will be crying for the Jebman to come and dig them out, and many will be crying for Spring. Snowblowers will break down, and snow removal equipment will simply get bogged down in the incredibly deep, 1978-like snowpacks. This winter in the Midwest WILL BE FAR WORSE THAN 1978, due to climate change perturbations and because of such frigid airmasses interacting with milder air farther south.

If you live in these places, you might want to think about moving to Virginia for the next 9 months.

IT'S GOING TO BE BAD.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I completely agree. December is my favorite month to have winter in. Like you said the last few winters I was wearing shorts on Christmas, so hopefully this winter is a change.

shorts is a bit of a stretch lol (then again I only wear shorts May-Aug) but yes the last two Christmases were mild.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, Jonger said:

I would rather have -5F departure in December and a 0 to +2F in January, February and March. I want to ride my sled, have a white Christmas and simply enjoy winter. By March, if I'm not riding my snowmobile, I'd rather be above normal. It seems like our winters start later and end later now days, cutting into spring.

Ive heard a lot of people say that. Its a bit of a perception issue, but late winter has certainly been much snowier than normal. December has been hit or miss.

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Ive heard a lot of people say that. Its a bit of a perception issue, but late winter has certainly been much snowier than normal. December has been hit or miss.

Lately though December has sucked more often than not.  There's been one good one out of the last 4 or 5. 

[Hoosier]

Not doing a real outlook but I feel pretty good about the prospects of a snowier than average winter around here... probably almost as good as you can feel as there's always uncertainty.  Analogs and recent history support it, and we don't have a notoriously hostile ENSO signal like last winter (and even then some places did alright).  I'm actually more uncertain about temps as I could envision a scenario that is a bit warmer than average for DJF.  I'd lean colder but with low confidence.

[IWXwx]

41 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not doing a real outlook but I feel pretty good about the prospects of a snowier than average winter around here... probably almost as good as you can feel as there's always uncertainty.  Analogs and recent history support it, and we don't have a notoriously hostile ENSO signal like last winter (and even then some places did alright).  I'm actually more uncertain about temps as I could envision a scenario that is a bit warmer than average for DJF.  I'd lean colder but with low confidence.

I pretty much agree with this assessment.

In fact, in the crap shoot that is the snowfall contest, I just took the 30 year average for each location and added a couple of inches for my guess. I coupled my thoughts on above normal precip with maybe the snowfall totals being knocked back by thermal issues in some events. As far as different locations within the subforum, who knows where the sweet spot will be this winter? I just went a little above everywhere.

[Thundersnow12]

23 hours ago, Jebman said:

This will be a mega winter long remembered in the Midwest and in New England.

Throughout the winter, which will last well into the late spring, jebwalks will be characterized by crippling cold and ridiculous amounts of snow accumulation. The Midwest in particular will be battered into submission by epic Siberian airmass after epic Siberian airmass. The Northeast will get smashed by a few of the Midwestern airmasses. By late July 2017, the record books for the Midwest and Northeast will need to be completely rewritten, in terms of crazy frigid temperatures and in terms of unbelievably deep snowpack, some of which will persist into meteorological summer. I am not referring to the mountains, either.

By mid January of the New Year, many in the Midwest and in the typical lake effect communities will be crying for the Jebman to come and dig them out, and many will be crying for Spring. Snowblowers will break down, and snow removal equipment will simply get bogged down in the incredibly deep, 1978-like snowpacks. This winter in the Midwest WILL BE FAR WORSE THAN 1978, due to climate change perturbations and because of such frigid airmasses interacting with milder air farther south.

If you live in these places, you might want to think about moving to Virginia for the next 9 months.

IT'S GOING TO BE BAD.

Stop posting 

[IWXwx]

1 hour ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Stop posting 

lol

 

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Stop posting 

I agree, we don't need a terrible board meme posting nonsense in our subforum.

[slimjim101]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Not doing a real outlook but I feel pretty good about the prospects of a snowier than average winter around here... probably almost as good as you can feel as there's always uncertainty.  Analogs and recent history support it, and we don't have a notoriously hostile ENSO signal like last winter (and even then some places did alright).  I'm actually more uncertain about temps as I could envision a scenario that is a bit warmer than average for DJF.  I'd lean colder but with low confidence.

The NWS office in Chicago has an outlook with a * and looking at it that is a big *

 http://www.weather.gov/lot/2016WinterOutlook 

[ConfusedKitten]

On 11/19/2016 at 3:33 PM, Jebman said:

This will be a mega winter long remembered in the Midwest and in New England.

Throughout the winter, which will last well into the late spring, jebwalks will be characterized by crippling cold and ridiculous amounts of snow accumulation. The Midwest in particular will be battered into submission by epic Siberian airmass after epic Siberian airmass. The Northeast will get smashed by a few of the Midwestern airmasses. By late July 2017, the record books for the Midwest and Northeast will need to be completely rewritten, in terms of crazy frigid temperatures and in terms of unbelievably deep snowpack, some of which will persist into meteorological summer. I am not referring to the mountains, either.

By mid January of the New Year, many in the Midwest and in the typical lake effect communities will be crying for the Jebman to come and dig them out, and many will be crying for Spring. Snowblowers will break down, and snow removal equipment will simply get bogged down in the incredibly deep, 1978-like snowpacks. This winter in the Midwest WILL BE FAR WORSE THAN 1978, due to climate change perturbations and because of such frigid airmasses interacting with milder air farther south.

If you live in these places, you might want to think about moving to Virginia for the next 9 months.

IT'S GOING TO BE BAD.

 

I wanna believe...

[CoachLB]

Any of these will do.

[Chinook]

On 11/19/2016 at 1:33 PM, Jebman said:

This will be a mega winter long remembered in the Midwest and in New England.

Throughout the winter, which will last well into the late spring, jebwalks will be characterized by crippling cold and ridiculous amounts of snow accumulation. The Midwest in particular will be battered into submission by epic Siberian airmass after epic Siberian airmass. The Northeast will get smashed by a few of the Midwestern airmasses. By late July 2017, the record books for the Midwest and Northeast will need to be completely rewritten, in terms of crazy frigid temperatures and in terms of unbelievably deep snowpack, some of which will persist into meteorological summer. I am not referring to the mountains, either.

By mid January of the New Year, many in the Midwest and in the typical lake effect communities will be crying for the Jebman to come and dig them out, and many will be crying for Spring. Snowblowers will break down, and snow removal equipment will simply get bogged down in the incredibly deep, 1978-like snowpacks. This winter in the Midwest WILL BE FAR WORSE THAN 1978, due to climate change perturbations and because of such frigid airmasses interacting with milder air farther south.

If you live in these places, you might want to think about moving to Virginia for the next 9 months.

IT'S GOING TO BE BAD.

For all of those who are new to these boards, what Jebman has posted is pure conjecture. The winter of 77-78 was a record-setting snow year in my old home town of Toledo OH. (snowfall record broken in 13-14). But it is hard to get a winter worse than 77-78.

[Jonger]

December looking sexy. 

[Jonger]

34 minutes ago, Chinook said:

For all of those who are new to these boards, what Jebman has posted is pure conjecture. The winter of 77-78 was a record-setting snow year in my old home town of Toledo OH. (snowfall record broken in 13-14). But it is hard to get a winter worse than 77-78.

13-14 was close. 

[Jonger]

2 hours ago, slimjim101 said:

The NWS office in Chicago has an outlook with a * and looking at it that is a big *

 http://www.weather.gov/lot/2016WinterOutlook 

That's like Joe Namath guaranteeing a Super Bowl win, as long as his team plays good.