Winter 2016-17 Discussion

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, Jonger said:

Phhooooft. That winter couldn't manage 4 days without shooting up to 40 degrees.

You picked a day we had thunderstorms 3 days after a regional severe weather event. Yeah I am more shocked the snow cover is even that good...

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, Jonger said:

Phhooooft. That winter couldn't manage 4 days without shooting up to 40 degrees.

True. Nothing will EVER top 2013-14 for me, but I certainly will take 2007-08. Despite the frequent thaws and the Grand Poobah of screw jobs Jan 1st, I still got 78.2" of snow, nearly twice normal!

[Jonger]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

True. Nothing will EVER top 2013-14 for me, but I certainly will take 2007-08. Despite the frequent thaws and the Grand Poobah of screw jobs Jan 1st, I still got 78.2" of snow, nearly twice normal!

My interests are regional. That winter had too many regionwide thaws. If there is a trace of snow in Gaylord on Jan 10th, I'm hating the pattern. That's just me.

[osubrett2]

I'll take an 07-08 redux as well. Numerous 3-4" front end snow storms before a switch to sleet/FZA in January and February. And then the biggest storm in CMH history: 20.8" between 3/7-3/8/08. (Pretty sure the 1950 Great Appalachian storm didn't drop more). I'm all for torchy-ish winters with plentiful snow, like '07-'08. The winters of '13-'14 and '14-'15 were miserable IMO with the extreme, prolonged cold with very minimal synoptic snow here in Central Ohio. Everyone else cashed in those winters.

[snowlover2]

3 hours ago, osubrett2 said:

I'll take an 07-08 redux as well. Numerous 3-4" front end snow storms before a switch to sleet/FZA in January and February. And then the biggest storm in CMH history: 20.8" between 3/7-3/8/08. (Pretty sure the 1950 Great Appalachian storm didn't drop more). I'm all for torchy-ish winters with plentiful snow, like '07-'08. The winters of '13-'14 and '14-'15 were miserable IMO with the extreme, prolonged cold with very minimal synoptic snow here in Central Ohio. Everyone else cashed in those winters.

Give me that over again as well. Think that was the last time I had a double digit snowfall from one storm.

[snowcaine]

European weeklies showing quite a few arctic outbreaks in December 

[RogueWaves]

3 hours ago, snowcaine said:

European weeklies showing quite a few arctic outbreaks in December 

#itscoming

[beavis1729]

17 hours ago, andyhb said:

I can cherry pick a date from just about any winter and find snow-depth like that, but sure continue pushing that anything other than wishing for Arctic tundra is "trolling".

Regardless, I'll take just about any winter as long as it ends in March and doesn't blowtorch the NE Pacific.

Well...it is trolling. 

Why can't people grasp the fact that we only have 1-2 months of decent winter in most Midwest locations (which I define as sub-32 highs or snow on the ground)...and therefore winter lovers are very passionate for wintry conditions that are very elusive in these parts. You make it sound like we want -40 or colder constantly, like in Siberia. Come on. In summer, you can pretty much count in summertime conditions on 95% of days. But in winter, you can't count on consistent winter like conditions...which is why we (including Jonger) yearn for it. In Chicago, about 12 days are over 40 degrees in an average December. That is not winter...and so we continue hoping for it and appreciating it when it actually does occur. I don't know why people think Feb 2015 was so "uncomfortably cold." In Chicago, it just happened to be wintry...heaven forbid (!)...similar to a typical February in central WI. It's not the end of the world.

You don't see people posting in summer threads that they hope for every day to be in the 50s...with maybe an occasional summer like day thrown in. We have 4 months of summer - plenty to go around. 

The NE forum has a 51-page thread about the upcoming winter...and go figure, all of the posts convey excitement about winter!! Whether it's the SAI, La Niña status, analogs, reminiscing about prior storms, etc...it's genuine excitement without having to spar with people who don't like winter. Heck, there are several other winter-related threads ongoing in that forum too. 

If people want to post about mild winters, why not create a thread for that...without crashing the party in the main winter thread. 

It's nothing personal...but I simply can't understand why people post in a winter thread to instigate bickering. What's the point??

[weatherbo]

This sub is weird.  I blame Alek.

[andyhb]

3 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Well...it is trolling. 

Why can't people grasp the fact that we only have 1-2 months of decent winter in most Midwest locations (which I define as sub-32 highs or snow on the ground)...and therefore winter lovers are very passionate for wintry conditions that are very elusive in these parts. You make it sound like we want -40 or colder constantly, like in Siberia. Come on. In summer, you can pretty much count in summertime conditions on 95% of days. But in winter, you can't count on consistent winter like conditions...which is why we (including Jonger) yearn for it. In Chicago, about 12 days are over 40 degrees in an average December. That is not winter...and so we continue hoping for it and appreciating it when it actually does occur. I don't know why people think Feb 2015 was so "uncomfortably cold." In Chicago, it just happened to be wintry...heaven forbid (!)...similar to a typical February in central WI. It's not the end of the world.

You don't see people posting in summer threads that they hope for every day to be in the 50s...with maybe an occasional summer like day thrown in. We have 4 months of summer - plenty to go around. 

The NE forum has a 51-page thread about the upcoming winter...and go figure, all of the posts convey excitement about winter!! Whether it's the SAI, La Niña status, analogs, reminiscing about prior storms, etc...it's genuine excitement without having to spar with people who don't like winter. Heck, there are several other winter-related threads ongoing in that forum too. 

If people want to post about mild winters, why not create a thread for that...without crashing the party in the main winter thread. 

It's nothing personal...but I simply can't understand why people post in a winter thread to instigate bickering. What's the point??

2011-12 mostly sucked too, for the record.

Monotony is what I'm against, plain and simple.

Where did I come into the thread trying to instigate bickering? Jonger is the one who got all bent out of shape about me saying I didn't like the results of that analog composite that was posted earlier. Also lol @ using the NE forum as an example when you have characters like CT Blizz hyping everything to kingdom come (and proud of it).

[hawkeye_wx]

22 hours ago, Stebo said:

I would love 07-08 to happen every winter.

07-08 was easily the best winter of my lifetime.  It began with two December ice storms, which we rarely get, and ended with record snowfall.

There was a severe southeast US drought heading into that winter as well.  Here in the western part of the subforum, we should tend to benefit from some southeast US ridging.  

[beavis1729]

1 hour ago, andyhb said:

2011-12 mostly sucked too, for the record.

Monotony is what I'm against, plain and simple.

Where did I come into the thread trying to instigate bickering? Jonger is the one who got all bent out of shape about me saying I didn't like the results of that analog composite that was posted earlier. Also lol @ using the NE forum as an example when you have characters like CT Blizz hyping everything to kingdom come (and proud of it).

Again, not personal at all.  I'm just tired of people complaining about winter in a winter thread.  Sure, I would love for it to be snowy/active/cold all the time...but when it's cold and dry, at least it feels like winter.  Cold and dry in Chicago and Ohio is not the "arctic tundra"; that does a disservice to true arctic weather.  December 1983 in INL was the arctic tundra.

 

I'm not saying it has to be "ra ra ra" about winter all the time; if people have meteorological/climo analysis to add, that's great.  But it's obnoxious to see people arguing, putting each other down, and incessantly going back and forth about how great mild winters are due to how uncomfortable it is to be outside.  If people really feel that way, great...but this is not the place for it.  Let's just talk about winter.

 

I hate summer...and so I choose to stay out of the summer threads.  It's just common courtesy.

As for the NE forum - it's not about individual people.  There are a ton of mets who cheer on winter in every possible way, and analyze everything about it - it's a good community.  The NYC forum is similar.

 

Cheers.

 

[Stebo]

Why must we only like a cold winter to talk about winter in this thread, that doesn't make sense. I think most of the posts in this thread are fine but you have to realize that Jonger post was an obvious troll especially after I explained why. I mean DTW had 71.7" of snow in 07-08 and he picks the absolute worst time for there to be snow in the winter, that is trolling.

[Stebo]

Also using NYC and NE subforums as your backing for good forums is pretty laughable. NYC all the mets got chased out, hell in their La Nina thread I was posting stuff in it because no met had posted in that thread for ages. NE looks busy with respect to mets but it is really like 3 or 4 mets posting all day long, furthermore the posters in that subforum wish cast every winter as being the greatest winter of all time, that isn't rational or rooted in science.

[Stebo]

43 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

07-08 was easily the best winter of my lifetime.  It began with two December ice storms, which we rarely get, and ended with record snowfall.

There was a severe southeast US drought heading into that winter as well.  Here in the western part of the subforum, we should tend to benefit from some southeast US ridging.  

Yeah that drought they are having down there in the Southeast is going to be a player this winter, it will help set up a ridge there if things don't change. Hell Huntsville AL hit 85 today at noon to break their all time record for November, ended up maxing at 88.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Well...it is trolling. 

Why can't people grasp the fact that we only have 1-2 months of decent winter in most Midwest locations (which I define as sub-32 highs or snow on the ground)...and therefore winter lovers are very passionate for wintry conditions that are very elusive in these parts. You make it sound like we want -40 or colder constantly, like in Siberia. Come on. In summer, you can pretty much count in summertime conditions on 95% of days. But in winter, you can't count on consistent winter like conditions...which is why we (including Jonger) yearn for it. In Chicago, about 12 days are over 40 degrees in an average December. That is not winter...and so we continue hoping for it and appreciating it when it actually does occur. I don't know why people think Feb 2015 was so "uncomfortably cold." In Chicago, it just happened to be wintry...heaven forbid (!)...similar to a typical February in central WI. It's not the end of the world.

You don't see people posting in summer threads that they hope for every day to be in the 50s...with maybe an occasional summer like day thrown in. We have 4 months of summer - plenty to go around. 

The NE forum has a 51-page thread about the upcoming winter...and go figure, all of the posts convey excitement about winter!! Whether it's the SAI, La Niña status, analogs, reminiscing about prior storms, etc...it's genuine excitement without having to spar with people who don't like winter. Heck, there are several other winter-related threads ongoing in that forum too. 

If people want to post about mild winters, why not create a thread for that...without crashing the party in the main winter thread. 

It's nothing personal...but I simply can't understand why people post in a winter thread to instigate bickering. What's the point??

I love winter like you. I like DEEP winter, not just snowstorms. Everyone has their own opinions of whats harsh and whats not, but it should be easy to see why your vision of winter and summer come off as skewed. We only get 1-2 months of winter but summer is summer 95% of the time? Its certainly a sentiment most in this region would disagree with. I usually say we have 6 months of winter, 4 months of summer, and 2 months for Fall and spring to fight over. I like summer, but not nearly as much as I love winter. So I cant say it enough that I am on your side when it comes to wanting all aspects of winter. But to play devils advocate, I can argue that many summer fans could say we are lucky to see 2-3 weeks of true "summer" most years (days in the upper 80s or higher). The reality is, we usually go 6 months from first to last snowflake in a season, but does it snow the entire time? No. We usually go 5 months from first to last 80-degree day. Is it warm the entire time? No. Its all relative.

 

It is now November so I say bring on the snow

[Hoosier]

I recall quite a few thaws in 07-08 (don't forget I was in LAF then), which was a bit annoying in an overall good winter.  Funny how my preferences have changed even in the past 5-10 years as frequent thaws now wouldn't bother me at all.  Fact is, no two winters are the same and everybody has their own idea of what a good winter is.

[Stebo]

18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I recall quite a few thaws in 07-08 (don't forget I was in LAF then), which was a bit annoying in an overall good winter.  Funny how my preferences have changed even in the past 5-10 years as frequent thaws now wouldn't bother me at all.  Fact is, no two winters are the same and everybody has their own idea of what a good winter is.

True but active winters are more fun

[hlcater]

I like the cold. I may be the only one here, but I'd rather have a consistent winter than a thaw. Big storms are great, dont get me wrong, but winter to me isnt winter without snow on the ground for most of it. 1 or 2 thaws (or less preferably )  and a few good 6-8" storms and that's a perfect winter in my book.

[beavis1729]

It's good to see the background conditions setting up for a potentially good winter - weak La Niña, low solar, good SAI, etc. But it concerns me how warm the arctic and Canada have been, along with low sea ice. I realize that low sea ice can ironically be favorable for us down here in the tropics...but it concerns me that our cold source to the north isn't very cold. 

Thoughts?

[RogueWaves]

48 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

It's good to see the background conditions setting up for a potentially good winter - weak La Niña, low solar, good SAI, etc. But it concerns me how warm the arctic and Canada have been, along with low sea ice. I realize that low sea ice can ironically be favorable for us down here in the tropics...but it concerns me that our cold source to the north isn't very cold. 

Thoughts?

Hoping we get some help from the current SSW event in regards to getting some better cold on our side of the globe. 

[michsnowfreak]

Liking that the weeklies show some arctic cold in December. We always get plenty of winter action after new years, December is the more hit or miss month

 

[IWXwx]

Here is a link to a video of a Periscope broadcast of a Winter Weather workshop with the IND area media from a couple of days ago. Mike Ryan with IND gives his thoughts on the coming winter. The presentation is a little simplified due to his audience (media), but interesting nonetheless. In a nutshell, he is going with about 32-36" at Indy (normal 26") and slightly cooler than normal.

He really hits on '83-'84 and '95-'96 as analog years, as well as '50-'51 and '07-'08. I know that most of what he talks about has been discussed here ad nauseam, but he is a good and respected met.

His forecast begins at about the 22 minute mark if you're interested in watching.

https://www.periscope.tv/w/1lPKqYqvwELKb?platform=hootsuite

 

[Powerball]

On 11/1/2016 at 10:49 PM, michsnowfreak said:

I love winter like you. I like DEEP winter, not just snowstorms. Everyone has their own opinions of whats harsh and whats not, but it should be easy to see why your vision of winter and summer come off as skewed. We only get 1-2 months of winter but summer is summer 95% of the time? Its certainly a sentiment most in this region would disagree with. I usually say we have 6 months of winter, 4 months of summer, and 2 months for Fall and spring to fight over. I like summer, but not nearly as much as I love winter. So I cant say it enough that I am on your side when it comes to wanting all aspects of winter. But to play devils advocate, I can argue that many summer fans could say we are lucky to see 2-3 weeks of true "summer" most years (days in the upper 80s or higher). The reality is, we usually go 6 months from first to last snowflake in a season, but does it snow the entire time? No. We usually go 5 months from first to last 80-degree day. Is it warm the entire time? No. Its all relative.

 

It is now November so I say bring on the snow

I vehemently disagree with the bolded.

A 2009 Summer is akin to a 2012 Summer like a 1982-1983 Winter is akin to a 2013-2014 Winter.

[Powerball]

And lol at some of the meltdowns.

I would suggest moving to Anchorage, AK.

[Powerball]

On 11/1/2016 at 7:53 AM, osubrett2 said:

I'll take an 07-08 redux as well. Numerous 3-4" front end snow storms before a switch to sleet/FZA in January and February. And then the biggest storm in CMH history: 20.8" between 3/7-3/8/08. (Pretty sure the 1950 Great Appalachian storm didn't drop more). I'm all for torchy-ish winters with plentiful snow, like '07-'08. The winters of '13-'14 and '14-'15 were miserable IMO with the extreme, prolonged cold with very minimal synoptic snow here in Central Ohio. Everyone else cashed in those winters.

The most annoying part about the past few winters were the lack of dynamic snowstorms, due to the virtually non-existent SE Ridge and STJ.

I miss the days when we would get a snowstorms like we did on New Years 2008 or 2/6/2008.

[beavis1729]

Obviously one's view on the lengths of seasons can vary...but I don't know how anyone can say we have 6 months of winter. Sure, we can get a chilly day or two and a bit of snow in early November or late April...but in my mind, the winter season is a state of mind, i.e. the time of year when, on average, a day feels like winter. Early December doesn't meet that guideline in my area, as there are often days in the 40s and 50s. Same with late February...and on top of that, it fells warm outside on a sunny day, especially in a car. That is not winter. So, for me, the winter season is December 10-February 10...because that is when you can count on wintry days, more often than not. 

With that said, there is obviously a steep winter gradient by latitude in the Midwest. Central WI is 3 months, northern WI is 4 months, and St. Louis is near 0 months. 

[BuffaloWeather]

I like summer much more than winter. I'd always take winter conditions from Mid/late Nov to Mid March though. A quick transition to warmth in March is always my ideal hope. 2012 was just incredible for that. The cold in the long range keeps getting put back farther and farther. Wouldn't be surprised if we stay above normal through December at the earliest.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I like summer much more than winter. I'd always take winter conditions from Mid/late Nov to Mid March though. A quick transition to warmth in March is always my ideal hope. 2012 was just incredible for that. The cold in the long range keeps getting put back farther and farther. Wouldn't be surprised if we stay above normal through December at the earliest.

I'm starting to suspect that as well. So many mets (not just Joe Bastardi) calling for an early start to winter, even up here in Canada, reminds me of 2001-2002 and 2011-2012. Both of those years saw mets calling for cold that never really materialized.

 

This being said, I note that November 1975, a La Nina year, also got off to a very warm start in these parts.

[michsnowfreak]

18 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I'm starting to suspect that as well. So many mets (not just Joe Bastardi) calling for an early start to winter, even up here in Canada, reminds me of 2001-2002 and 2011-2012. Both of those years saw mets calling for cold that never really materialized.

 

This being said, I note that November 1975, a La Nina year, also got off to a very warm start in these parts.

Bill Deedler (retired DTX met) didnt think winter would get off to an early start this year. even still this is too early to even talk about an early start. Winter doesnt set in in early November. If it was cold and snowy right now, Id bet on a very mild Thanksgiving.