Jonger Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 5 hours ago, andyhb said: You guys do realize the pattern that most prototypically yields the biggest snowstorms in the Great Lakes (i.e. a lakes cutter-dominated regime with some semblance of a SE ridge) also usually produces severe weather elsewhere, right? What does a bunch of NW flow usually yield outside of the LES belts and the odd robust clipper? I'm not specifically talking severe weather in the forum. I'm aware of the climatology. I know some here don't care, but that type of pattern usually results in bare ground most of the time. We hit one, but most of the time they just go north and we lose our snowpack. I want snow on the ground, not a soggy yard with fog. Might as well move down south and forget about winter altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 1 hour ago, Stebo said: Very correct here, think of some of the best storms this region has had, Super Tuesday, GHD Blizzard 1 and 2, 99 Blizzard, Cleveland superstorm, all had some sort of southern stream vort and a few of them had major severe weather associated with them. We don't want a ridge in the southwest, that is bad for cutters for the region. The 99 storm is one of the few times you will see that much snow with a low going to our NW. We got lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjim101 Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 Working on my snow fall contest guess for the upcoming winter. And in working on my home towns guess I will be using several ideas. Below is one of the ideas. At this time it looks like we may end to having an neutral ENSO going back to 1950 here is a list of years that have had past neutral ENSO’s remember the years as referred to here start in September and run to the next August. Thus 1979 would run from September 1979 to August 1980. The neutral ENSO years 2008, 2006, 2005, 2004,2003,2001,1999,1996,1995,1994,1993,1992,1990,1989,1985,1984,1983,1980,1979,1978,1977, 1968,1966,1962,1961,1960,1959,1958,1953,1952 and 1950. In the neutral ENSO winters here in Grand Rapids the average mean snow fall total has been 78.1” (around 75” is average for all years The top 3 snowiest winters (in that group) were 104.9” in 2008/09, 104.7” in 1958/59 and 98.1” in 2000/01. And on the flip side the 3 least snowy neutral years were 39.7” in 1952/53, 48.5” in 1979/80 and 51.5” in 1980/81. So how much snow will fall here in Grand Rapids this winter (2016/17) well its safe to say somewhere between 40 and 104” with between 70 to 80” being a good bet at this time. I will be working on the contest over the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 Just now, Jonger said: The 99 storm is one of the few times you will see that much snow with a low going to our NW. We got lucky. Yes but all the rest still apply, I am sure I can go on and on about the major storms in this region. NW flow doesn't cut the mustard outside of the lakes and occasional clippers which could even miss us to the south, 09-10 is an example of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yes but all the rest still apply, I am sure I can go on and on about the major storms in this region. NW flow doesn't cut the mustard outside of the lakes and occasional clippers which could even miss us to the south, 09-10 is an example of that. I'm fine with the ridge before a storm, but once we get hit.... NW all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 Just now, Jonger said: I'm fine with the ridge before a storm, but once we get hit.... NW all the way. So you want a one storm winter, how'd that work two winters ago. If I remember correctly there was endless complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CP_WinterStorm Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 18 hours ago, Stebo said: So you want a one storm winter, how'd that work two winters ago. If I remember correctly there was endless complaining. Wow, so hostile in here lately. Not that I am trying to make matters worse, but I will say that I'd much rather deal with a southeast ridge than a relentless NW flow. You don't get big storms in that type of pattern, and as much as I enjoy a good snow-pack all winter long, I'd rather have it be active than relentlessly cold as that can sometimes lead to long snowless periods anyhow. Judging by the overall look of things, we should see a nice mix of both this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 Looks like a nice battle between climate models and forecasters is setting up. Many forecasters calling for colder than average upper midwest and most climate models are torching the entire U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 3 hours ago, CP_WinterStorm said: Wow, so hostile in here lately. Not that I am trying to make matters worse, but I will say that I'd much rather deal with a southeast ridge than a relentless NW flow. You don't get big storms in that type of pattern, and as much as I enjoy a good snow-pack all winter long, I'd rather have it be active than relentlessly cold as that can sometimes lead to long snowless periods anyhow. Judging by the overall look of things, we should see a nice mix of both this winter. Yeah the post wasn't meant to be hostile, its just people have very poor memory around here and forget what we had to deal with in previous winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 50 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: Looks like a nice battle between climate models and forecasters is setting up. Many forecasters calling for colder than average upper midwest and most climate models are torching the entire U.S. Lots of IP/ZR storms this winter for the subforum. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Just now, IWXwx said: Lots of IP/ZR storms this winter for the subforum. Book it. I would be down for some ZR storms. We haven't had a good one around here for 5+ years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 53 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: Looks like a nice battle between climate models and forecasters is setting up. Many forecasters calling for colder than average upper midwest and most climate models are torching the entire U.S. Which model are you looking at? I would be careful with some, they default to warm beyond 2 months out. February 2015 was shown as a blowtorch in November 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Just now, Jonger said: Which model are you looking at? I would be careful with some, they default to warm beyond 2 months out. February 2015 was shown as a blowtorch in November 2014. Just the suite that is common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: I would be down for some ZR storms. We haven't had a good one around here for 5+ years. I love any anomalous weather, but can do without power outages. Que sera, sera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 12 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Lots of IP/ZR storms this winter for the subforum. Book it. We are due for a major ice storm up in this part of the region, I want to say it has been a good 7 years since we had something over 3/4" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: We are due for a major ice storm up in this part of the region, I want to say it has been a good 7 years since we had something over 3/4" of ice. Yeah, we are overdue for major ice. I've been pounding the possibilities in the Winter Weather Preparedness presentations I'm giving locally. Multiple day power outages are a nightmare for local Emergency Management Agencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 1 hour ago, LoveSN+ said: Looks like a nice battle between climate models and forecasters is setting up. Many forecasters calling for colder than average upper midwest and most climate models are torching the entire U.S. Most climate models are torching the entire US? The cfs does not torch the north, don't really have access to other models. Links or pics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 29 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah the post wasn't meant to be hostile, its just people have very poor memory around here and forget what we had to deal with in previous winters. 2015 was a tundra. Deep snowpack and just brutal cold. A true severe winter, but with lack of storminess outside the big dog, snowfall itself just barely above normal. The winter would have seemed even more brutal if not for coming off a a historic 2013-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 14 minutes ago, Stebo said: We are due for a major ice storm up in this part of the region, I want to say it has been a good 7 years since we had something over 3/4" of ice. Last Dec 28 ice storm was the best we have had in over a decade, even though it melted overnight. Haven't had a crippling ice storm here in 14 years. Been all about the snow. We usually see just nuisance glaze or sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 25 minutes ago, Jonger said: Which model are you looking at? I would be careful with some, they default to warm beyond 2 months out. February 2015 was shown as a blowtorch in November 2014. Have a good feeling for this winter here in the Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: 2015 was a tundra. Deep snowpack and just brutal cold. A true severe winter, but with lack of storminess outside the big dog, snowfall itself just barely above normal. The winter would have seemed even more brutal if not for coming off a a historic 2013-14. Cold and old snow doesn't push the meter for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 20 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Yeah, we are overdue for major ice. I've been pounding the possibilities in the Winter Weather Preparedness presentations I'm giving locally. Multiple day power outages are a nightmare for local Emergency Management Agencies. Hell i'm overdue for a major snow. Haven't had a double digit snowfall here in 9 years. Hoping to break that this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 See the tweet here from Michael Ventrice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 12 minutes ago, Stebo said: Cold and old snow doesn't push the meter for me. Winter 2013-14 was probably a once-in-300 years winter locally when you combine all factors (certainly nothing like that had been seen since records started, cold+snowfall+snowdepth+# of storms+wind), so i dont ever foresee us ever matching that, but thats a good example of constant snowpack that never has a chance to get old. 2014-15 was an example of old snowpack that simply cant melt. I think a 2007-08 winter would be perfect for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 14 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: See the tweet here from Michael Ventrice. Interesting tidbit about NCAR_CESM, which shows the coolest outlook. Regardless, at this latitude none of those temp forecasts would bother me one bit (except maybe CMC2). As long as we get storminess its game on, and I dont think I have seen any projection of a dry winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Winter 2013-14 was probably a once-in-300 years winter locally when you combine all factors (certainly nothing like that had been seen since records started, cold+snowfall+snowdepth+# of storms+wind), so i dont ever foresee us ever matching that, but thats a good example of constant snowpack that never has a chance to get old. 2014-15 was an example of old snowpack that simply cant melt. I think a 2007-08 winter would be perfect for you. I would love 07-08 to happen every winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConfusedKitten Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 14-15 was pretty brutal, but I'll still take the endless cold over whatever the **** last February was. I think we can all agree that 13-14 was near-perfect though, and 10-11 here in Southern Ontario because of one huge storm + consistent snowfall throughout the rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Hi, alll! With October coming to a close, it is that time where I come back to life on this board. I have already been spending time perusing through old winter threads just to get me excited again. Hah! Looking forward to discussing winter storms and lake effect snows with everybody! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 2 hours ago, Stebo said: I would love 07-08 to happen every winter. Phhooooft. That winter couldn't manage 4 days without shooting up to 40 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 28 minutes ago, Jonger said: Phhooooft. That winter couldn't manage 4 days without shooting up to 40 degrees. I can cherry pick a date from just about any winter and find snow-depth like that, but sure continue pushing that anything other than wishing for Arctic tundra is "trolling". Regardless, I'll take just about any winter as long as it ends in March and doesn't blowtorch the NE Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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