Winter 2016-17 Discussion

[Tanner Verstegen]

Here is a look at my winter forecast: http://www.midwestweather.org/2016/10/official-midwest-2016-2017-winter.html

Worried we may end up being warmer, but signs do point to a cooler winter

[andyhb]

My reaction towards that and that analog set (not towards the validity of the forecast):

[LoveSN+]

11 minutes ago, andyhb said:

My reaction towards that and that analog set (not towards the validity of the forecast):

Care to say which analogs you think aren't the best or ones you would add?

[Tanner Verstegen]

3 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said:

Care to say which analogs you think aren't the best or ones you would add?

I really do like 2013-2014. I coincides well with ENSO, PDO, AMO, QBO and eurasia snow cover. I do not like analogs using the NAO, EPO for example. Too much inter-seasonal variability. Otherwise this sums up my thoughts:

[andyhb]

22 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said:

Care to say which analogs you think aren't the best or ones you would add?

I just said "not towards the validity of the forecast".

[BuffaloWeather]

Winter is here for the Dacks, 2nd snowstorm in the last week. 5-10" in first storm and 5-8" in this one. Looks like quite a few areas in Ontario N/NW of Toronto will get some decent snow.  Possibly first flakes here tomorrow night, already first flakes in higher elevations S/SE of me. The 2nd half of November looks much better for winter lovers, still way out there though.

[LoveSN+]

19 minutes ago, andyhb said:

I just said "not towards the validity of the forecast".

Then what is the criticism? I am confused.

[andyhb]

1 minute ago, LoveSN+ said:

Then what is the criticism? I am confused.

I don't like the analogs from an actual result perspective.

[LoveSN+]

19 minutes ago, andyhb said:

I don't like the analogs from an actual result perspective.

An actual result perspective? What's wrong with them?

[andyhb]

4 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said:

An actual result perspective? What's wrong with them?

Ask Alek.

[Stebo]

25 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said:

An actual result perspective? What's wrong with them?

Andy likes severe weather and warmth, that forecast would be the exact opposite.

[LoveSN+]

28 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Andy likes severe weather and warmth, that forecast would be the exact opposite.

Oh a direct answer, that's nice. Thanks.

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, LoveSN+ said:

Oh a direct answer, that's nice. Thanks.

Lol, dude might want to dial it back, no need to come off mad.

[josh_4184]

10 hours ago, Willh said:

I'm seriously getting sick of this warmth and inability of winter to even remotely manifest itself.

 

This is offensive.

Its only October take it easy..

[weatherbo]

27 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Its only October take it easy..

I've enjoyed the warm fall. The snow will come. 

just a light rain/snow mix changing at times to all snow tonight.  Windy and damp

[roardog]

A cold September and October is kind of useless. You may get some snow with below normal temperatures in October but it will melt anyway and it's not like the ski resorts are going to open up or anything and benefit from snow that early. On the other hand, a mild September and October can be beneficial to everyone. 

[Roger Smith]

I was looking in for the snowfall contest and I don't see any signs of it, assume people would like to have it again this winter. 

So I will make this offer, if the contest does not start up by end of October 30th, I will set up a thread and use the same contest rules as last winter. As it turned out, last winter there was a need for a report on scoring and I created an excel file with the 30-year averages and various forecasts. The 30-year average was for 1986-2015. 

The thread is back on page two now, having last been updated in May 2016. 

So one way or another, we'll have a contest. But I would prefer that it starts up from either last year's originator or somebody more regular on this sub-forum. That person might want to change the contest rules, not an issue as far as I'm concerned. However, absent any such developments, I will get things rolling on October 31st, probably keep it open for entries to about November 10th or so. 

Meanwhile, on the question of what kind of winter in the Midwest, I feel that it's going to be quite a stormy one and snowfall will likely run above normal in most places. 

[IWXwx]

Roger, the guy who usually runs the contest, Tim (ChicagoWx) occasionally checks in, but hasn't been posting much. I'm pretty sure that it would not be a problem if you want to run it.

Signs are pointing toward an above normal precipitation winter for the Great Lakes area, but the jury is still out on how that translates into total snowfall. However, I am optimistic. 

[LoveSN+]

46 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Roger, the guy who usually runs the contest, Tim (ChicagoWx) occasionally checks in, but hasn't been posting much. I'm pretty sure that it would not be a problem if you want to run it.

Signs are pointing toward an above normal precipitation winter for the Great Lakes area, but the jury is still out on how that translates into total snowfall. However, I am optimistic. 

Things are certainly pointing towards that now. Once that Pac jet relaxes, the door for cold could open.

[Minnesota Meso]

On 10/25/2016 at 7:30 PM, LoveSN+ said:

Then what is the criticism? I am confused.

LoveSN+ There really shouldn't be any confusion at all.  Andy was not questioning the validity of the science involved in selecting the analog years, nor was he doubting the accuracy of the winter forecast.  What he didn't like was the results.  For his area it looks like another year of warmer than normal temps with below normal snow fall.  I know Andy is a fan of severe weather, but I really think he likes a good snowstorm or two over his area.  Andy I hate to speak for you, if I'm wrong about how I interpreted your remarks please feel free to comment here.

[Jonger]

On 10/25/2016 at 7:53 PM, Tanner Verstegen said:

I really do like 2013-2014. I coincides well with ENSO, PDO, AMO, QBO and eurasia snow cover. I do not like analogs using the NAO, EPO for example. Too much inter-seasonal variability. Otherwise this sums up my thoughts:

Don't try and rationalize this with Andy. He lives in Vancouver and has no skin in the game anyhow. This entire forum exists based on winter weather, so trying to root against a snowy, cold winter is simply trolling. If we are running 10 degrees above normal with severe weather in January, this forum will be dead as a doornail.

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, Jonger said:

Don't try and rationalize this with Andy. He lives in Vancouver and has no skin in the game anyhow. This entire forum exists based on winter weather, so trying to root against a snowy, cold winter is simply trolling. If we are running 10 degrees above normal with severe weather in January, this forum will be dead as a doornail.

Winter leads the way but action brings  attention.  I'm pretty sure the usual severe posters would be here for a severe event in January.

[Stebo]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Winter leads the way but action brings  attention.  I'm pretty sure the usual severe posters would be here for a severe event in January.

Yeah, whenever we have severe action people show up. We just haven't had any in ages, hell in winter time we have more discussion because others who normally aren't here join in on the discussion. In other words Jongrr is wrong as usual.

[Jonger]

10 hours ago, Stebo said:

Yeah, whenever we have severe action people show up. We just haven't had any in ages, hell in winter time we have more discussion because others who normally aren't here join in on the discussion. In other words Jongrr is wrong as usual.

In a bad pattern, we have more people here discussing when the bad pattern is going to end. Snowstorms bring people to the board. 

[michsnowfreak]

Chances of severe weather here in winter are extremely slim, no matter how much warmer than normal it is. If you look at the warmest January's on record here, they are typically cloudy and rainy with some snow that doesn't last long on the ground. A bit south of here the chances of winter severe are still low but do increase. I'm sure a winter severe outbreak would pique some interest but not even close to a snowstorm.

 

All that said, with absolutely no signs pointing to a very warm winter, I'm getting excited for perhaps another stormy winter. This winter will now be a full decade since our crazy snow bonanza began, with just two subpar winters in the mix (11-12 & 15-16).

[weatherbo]

Mike Hoffman, WNDU ch 16 in South Bend just released his Winter forecasts and they're usually pretty reliable from what I remember living there.  His call for South bend is -2.8 temp and 80" of snow, 13" above for them.

http://www.wndu.com/content/news/Mikes-Winter-Outlook-for-2016-2017-398983361.html

[Stebo]

Here is a link to OHweather's outlook for this winter, it is very thorough and detailed.

 

[andyhb]

On 10/28/2016 at 10:30 PM, Minnesota Meso said:

LoveSN+ There really shouldn't be any confusion at all.  Andy was not questioning the validity of the science involved in selecting the analog years, nor was he doubting the accuracy of the winter forecast.  What he didn't like was the results.  For his area it looks like another year of warmer than normal temps with below normal snow fall.  I know Andy is a fan of severe weather, but I really think he likes a good snowstorm or two over his area.  Andy I hate to speak for you, if I'm wrong about how I interpreted your remarks please feel free to comment here.

Nah you're pretty much spot on the mark.

[andyhb]

On 10/29/2016 at 5:15 AM, Jonger said:

Don't try and rationalize this with Andy. He lives in Vancouver and has no skin in the game anyhow. This entire forum exists based on winter weather, so trying to root against a snowy, cold winter is simply trolling. If we are running 10 degrees above normal with severe weather in January, this forum will be dead as a doornail.

12 hours ago, Jonger said:

In a bad pattern, we have more people here discussing when the bad pattern is going to end. Snowstorms bring people to the board. 

9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Chances of severe weather here in winter are extremely slim, no matter how much warmer than normal it is. If you look at the warmest January's on record here, they are typically cloudy and rainy with some snow that doesn't last long on the ground. A bit south of here the chances of winter severe are still low but do increase. I'm sure a winter severe outbreak would pique some interest but not even close to a snowstorm.

All that said, with absolutely no signs pointing to a very warm winter, I'm getting excited for perhaps another stormy winter. This winter will now be a full decade since our crazy snow bonanza began, with just two subpar winters in the mix (11-12 & 15-16).

You guys do realize the pattern that most prototypically yields the biggest snowstorms in the Great Lakes (i.e. a lakes cutter-dominated regime with some semblance of a SE ridge) also usually produces severe weather elsewhere, right? What does a bunch of NW flow usually yield outside of the LES belts and the odd robust clipper?

I'm not specifically talking severe weather in the forum. I'm aware of the climatology.

[Stebo]

3 hours ago, andyhb said:

You guys do realize the pattern that most prototypically yields the biggest snowstorms in the Great Lakes (i.e. a lakes cutter-dominated regime with some semblance of a SE ridge) also usually produces severe weather elsewhere, right? What does a bunch of NW flow usually yield outside of the LES belts and the odd robust clipper?

I'm not specifically talking severe weather in the forum. I'm aware of the climatology.

Very correct here, think of some of the best storms this region has had, Super Tuesday, GHD Blizzard 1 and 2, 99 Blizzard, Cleveland superstorm, all had some sort of southern stream vort and a few of them had major severe weather associated with them. We don't want a ridge in the southwest, that is bad for cutters for the region.