LoveSN+ Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 24 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Euro monthlies drop the winter hammer in December. So I've heard. What kind of teleconnection pattern does it have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Euro monthlies drop the winter hammer in December. You got a link to the monthlies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Euro monthlies drop the winter hammer in December. Lets hope. December needs to be pound town from December 1st to make up for last December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 7 hours ago, LoveSN+ said: So I've heard. What kind of teleconnection pattern does it have? Strong -EPO, strong -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 8 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: Would not be surprised to see a +EPO/-NAO winter overall this winter. Whats your reasoning? And by asking I'm not saying your wrong, just wonder why you think that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 9 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: Strong -EPO, strong -NAO Similar pattern to Dec. 2013? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Similar pattern to Dec. 2013? No. 2013 had a strong -EPO, BUT a ++NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 6 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: No. 2013 had a strong -EPO, BUT a ++NAO. Yeah that's right. Either way it supports great lake/northeast troughs. The most important part is the -EPO and Neutral to positive PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah that's right. Either way it supports great lake/northeast troughs. The most important part is the -EPO and Neutral to positive PNA. Right. Euro was +PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 57 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: Right. Euro was +PNA Really? It seems like PNA is neutral until Feb where it goes very negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 10 hours ago, snowcaine said: Really? It seems like PNA is neutral until Feb where it goes very negative Average of a +PNA which is what you would expect with -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 I really am not expecting that southeast ridge to really go away anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 3 hours ago, KokomoWX said: I really am not expecting that southeast ridge to really go away anytime soon. Me either. We should continue with an active storm track through the Ohio valley into winter. Add in some cold air and kaboom.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 I'm loving the look of the 500mb pattern. Throw in some colder air and lower heights and we're going to be partying like it's 1998 or 2007 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 21 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Similar pattern to Dec. 2013? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 21 hours ago, Powerball said: LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 On 10/10/2016 at 7:19 PM, Powerball said: Haha! You're right, that year was just to cold. Does anyone know what the top 5 analogs are for this coming winter? I know they've been changing as we went from Neutral Enso conditions to a likely weak La Nina now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 1 hour ago, snowcaine said: That looks nice, but its the CFS and more importantly, that's one run of the CFS. Certainly means almost nothing at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 Certainly seems that most are calling for cold and snowy in the Midwest and Ohio valley this winter. It makes me feel good, but also scared to get my hopes up. I agree with these forecasts from my observations, but lots of things can change before winter arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 On 10/13/2016 at 7:18 PM, snowcaine said: That's sexy. You can even see the warm great lakes effect on northern Michigan. That requires a juicy lake contribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConfusedKitten Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 3 consecutive GFS runs now showing the first lake effect snow for Southern Ontario and WNY on Saturday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 On 10/10/2016 at 2:23 PM, Angrysummons said: I don't remember a -EPO supporting a +PNA. 1983 had a raging -EPO and the PNA that December was not positive, slightly negative. EPO is just high latitude blocking in the PAC. Based on the waters around Greenland, you can see the warmth in the north and cold in the south. That supports vigorous east based nao blocking. If the EPO is more neutral and maybe a bit positive, that could lead to a nice combination in December. Sure, you can have that. However, my point is that very often in -weak Nina's often -EPO is accompanied by ridging in the west & SW U.S....which normally leads to +PNA. Was not implying that every time you have -EPO you'll have a +PNA. I'd love to see a PNA closer to neutral or weak negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 The CPC will issue their winter outlook today. It will be interesting to see what they have to say, especially with the reissue of the Nina watch last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjim101 Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 4 hours ago, IWXwx said: The CPC will issue their winter outlook today. It will be interesting to see what they have to say, especially with the reissue of the Nina watch last week. Here is the outlook for November http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/ and here it is for DJF http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3 and JFM http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 Certainly looks plausible for this winter. I think I would probably extend the colder temps further south a bit, but overall it looks good. I like that they are calling for a wet signal in the Ohio valley as well and once again makes sense with our friend the southeast ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 5 hours ago, slimjim101 said: Here is the outlook for November http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/ and here it is for DJF http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3 and JFM http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3 That would be quite nice up here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 i can certainly live with that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 On 10/20/2016 at 10:48 AM, LoveSN+ said: Certainly looks plausible for this winter. I think I would probably extend the colder temps further south a bit, but overall it looks good. I like that they are calling for a wet signal in the Ohio valley as well and once again makes sense with our friend the southeast ridge. Gotta remember those are not proposed temp anomalies but probabilities. Big difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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