KokomoWX Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Thought I'd drop this public forecast here - http://southernindianaweather.com/wx/2016-17-preliminary-winter-forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 5 hours ago, KokomoWX said: Thought I'd drop this public forecast here - http://southernindianaweather.com/wx/2016-17-preliminary-winter-forecast/ I'd love for that storm track to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbs Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 On September 27, 2016 at 10:28 PM, Stebo said: I'd love for that storm track to occur. MI wins it all in that particular forecast lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 13 hours ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: MI wins it all in that particular forecast lol. #michiganrockswinter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Seeing some blues show up in the Midwest on the simulated radar field in the long range GFS. Just another reminder that winter is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 6 hours ago, RogueWaves said: #michiganrockswinter That forecast would be amazing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 hour ago, LoveSN+ said: Seeing some blues show up in the Midwest on the simulated radar field in the long range GFS. Just another reminder that winter is coming. It's pretty normal for someone in Michigan to see snow in the next 3 weeks, typically in the high terrain near Gaylord and the western UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 2 hours ago, LoveSN+ said: Seeing some blues show up in the Midwest on the simulated radar field in the long range GFS. Just another reminder that winter is coming. Yes Welcome to the board! You may appreciate this - a paper about the 1981-82 Winter...which I believe was one of the harshest on record for your area. The paper was co-written by the father of one of my meteorology professors at NIU in the 1990s. http://www.isws.illinois.edu/pubdoc/RI/ISWSRI-104.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Thanks for the read, was quite interesting! I would have never thought that anywhere in central Illinois has gotten snow in April before, that just seems ludicrous. I'm down for snow anytime of year, so maybe this is the year I see snow in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 On September 29, 2016 at 9:32 PM, Jonger said: It's pretty normal for someone in Michigan to see snow in the next 3 weeks, typically in the high terrain near Gaylord and the western UP. Actually liking the signals for a warm October. One of the few times of the year here where the bugs are tolerable and there isn't snow. The snow will come... a few more weeks of warm weather will be nice. Leaves are nearing peak here now. Maybe just a few days off... A week to 10 days behind average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 hour ago, weatherbo said: Actually liking the signals for a warm October. One of the few times of the year here where the bugs are tolerable and there isn't snow. The snow will come... a few more weeks of warm weather will be nice. Leaves are nearing peak here now. Maybe just a few days off... A week to 10 days behind average. Hmm... looping global models show a pretty average October from what I saw recently. Looks above average through the 7th though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 19 minutes ago, Jonger said: Hmm... looping global models show a pretty average October from what I saw recently. Looks above average through the 7th though. From Mqt this morning: rival of the trof late week will send temps down, back to normal or even blo normal. It does not look like any period of blo normal temps will last long as NAEFS and CPC outlooks indicate that above normal temps should overall be favored into mid Oct. CFSv2 ensembles still indicate a strong/consistent signal for above normal temps overall into late Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Warm in October is good, you don't want to burn good winter troughs now and cool the lakes down on top of things. You want the real switch to happen right around November 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 7 hours ago, weatherbo said: Actually liking the signals for a warm October. One of the few times of the year here where the bugs are tolerable and there isn't snow. The snow will come... a few more weeks of warm weather will be nice. Leaves are nearing peak here now. Maybe just a few days off... A week to 10 days behind average. Foliage almost 3 weeks behind down here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 My analog package for this winter (also posted on twitter) included: 2008-09 1961-62 2005-06 1983-84 1959-60 My top two years were 2008-09 and 1961-62, so they were weighted double. I looked for a Weak Modoki La nina, +QBO, Low solar and -PDO. It was impossible to find any given year which met all the criteria but a WB nina was a characteristic of all the above years as I felt that this was most important. 3/5 years had a +QBO and 3/5 had a weak +PDO while the overall mean had a -PDO due to the weighting. Overall, I believe that the weak -NAO depiction is incorrect in the DJF composite. Im thinking that the NAO averages +ve in the DJF mean given the +QBO/low solar. The +QBO is unfavourable and the QBO/Solar combination are also unfavourable for a SSW/-NAM given the Holtan-Tan effect and its implications. DJF Surface temperature anomaly mean Northern Hemispheric z500 heights Precip The mean ridge positioning shifts east from December to January which seems to be supported by typical jet changes and the fact that the la nina will be weakening throughout the DJF period. DEC JAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 8 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said: My analog package for this winter (also posted on twitter) included: 2008-09 1961-62 2005-06 1983-84 1959-60 My top two years were 2008-09 and 1961-62, so they were weighted double. I looked for a Weak Modoki La nina, +QBO, Low solar and -PDO. It was impossible to find any given year which met all the criteria but a WB nina was a characteristic of all the above years as I felt that this was most important. 3/5 years had a +QBO and 3/5 had a weak +PDO while the overall mean had a -PDO due to the weighting. Overall, I believe that the weak -NAO depiction is incorrect in the DJF composite. Im thinking that the NAO averages +ve in the DJF mean given the +QBO/low solar. The +QBO is unfavourable and the QBO/Solar combination are also unfavourable for a SSW/-NAM given the Holtan-Tan effect and its implications. DJF Surface temperature anomaly mean Northern Hemispheric z500 heights Precip The mean ridge positioning shifts east from December to January which seems to be supported by typical jet changes and the fact that the la nina will be weakening throughout the DJF period. DEC JAN How much weight are you putting into the PDO? I noticed you didn't include 2013-14 in your analog package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 My uneducated take is na nada/+PDO= rockin' winter for the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 That's been my thinking for some time as well. The warmer waters in the north Pacific have set up a bit further west than in 2013, which leads not only me, but others as well to believe that the resulting trough may set up more over the upper Midwest, compared to the farther east trough of 2013. However, the CFS (not sure if it's the only climate model doing this currently) has been showing a moderate la nina for nino 3.4 now. That would definitely throw a wrench into things... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 12 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: That's been my thinking for some time as well. The warmer waters in the north Pacific have set up a bit further west than in 2013, which leads not only me, but others as well to believe that the resulting trough may set up more over the upper Midwest, compared to the farther east trough of 2013. However, the CFS (not sure if it's the only climate model doing this currently) has been showing a moderate la nina for nino 3.4 now. That would definitely throw a wrench into things... I'm pretty sure right now CFS is a loner in the moderate Niña call, most other models are saying a weak Niña right now. Most people need to realize we are coming off a record strong El Niño stronger than 72, 82, 97 (right?) 2013-2014 was a second year neutral enso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 I agree with you that it's currently an outlier, but it could be a trend. Or the CFS is dead wrong like usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Mostly correct on the comparison to '97. In terms of the 3.4 tri-monthly index it was a tie with '97 at 2.3C. '15-'16 had a higher weekly/monthly peak (and was the first event to go over the 3.0C mark). However, this event was less east-based than the '97 event, so it's not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison. Nino 4, for instance, was extremely warm. In '97, the index never made it above 1.1, whereas this time around it peaked at an incredible 1.8C. The Nino 1+2 values were considerably lower than '97. All in all, the most exceptional part of the event was the extremely warm WPAC warm pool extension. 31C+ SSTs in the central eq. Pacific were pretty much unprecedented in the modern era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 56 minutes ago, Chambana said: I'm pretty sure right now CFS is a loner in the moderate Niña call, most other models are saying a weak Niña right now. Most people need to realize we are coming off a record strong El Niño stronger than 72, 82, 97 (right?) 2013-2014 was a second year neutral enso. Yes, the CFS is an outlier at this point. No other NMME or IMME member has a moderate Nina. Most have neutral-negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 29 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Yes, the CFS is an outlier at this point. No other NMME or IMME member has a moderate Nina. Most have neutral-negative. Do you have any early thoughts on the upcoming winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 We want neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Strong NPAC warm pool and ENSO neutral is good news of course. However, we're going to have to watch the PV again this year. It's spinning up early and 70-10Hpa temps are already running quite a bit below normal. Neutral-negative and a GoA ridge won't help as much as you think if the AO doesn't play ball. We're gonna have to wait and see how SCE and SLP anomalies go in the Arctic this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 16 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Strong NPAC warm pool Will be interesting to see if it hangs around and forces the ridge over the west like 2013-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 It's hanging on strong for now. In 13-14 it disappeared in October and November, and then came raging back in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 21 hours ago, LoveSN+ said: How much weight are you putting into the PDO? I noticed you didn't include 2013-14 in your analog package. IMO, 13/14 is a good analog PDO wise and in general. I could have included it. Because of the uniqueness of the PV(sitting N of Hudson Bay) and its persistence I decided to leave it out. Even if the EPO plays ball, it is tough to get that type of configuration to last through almost the entire DJF period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 9, 2016 Author Share Posted October 9, 2016 Euro monthlies drop the winter hammer in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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