Winter 2016-17 Discussion

[IWXwx]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Talked to him fairly recently.  Busy with work is what he said but I suspect there could be more to it than that since his absence has been so prolonged.  Just a guess...I honestly don't know anything else.  He's my best weather board buddy and he brought a lot to the table so it would be nice to see him post more often if he can.

This.

I really miss his input and hope he finds his way back to the board. I vaguely remember him posting something shortly after he moved referring to helping his parents with some storm related damage (flooding?). He seemed despondent. I hope all is well with him. 

[andyhb]

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Dry northwest flow hell incoming. 

[Chicago WX]

Well, I picked a good day to lurk, lol. 

Seriously though, everything is fine with me. Life is good. Probably a couple of reasons I haven't posted much in the last year or so, but that's neither here nor there. I'm starting to get a bit of the weather fever again, so you all may have to deal with me posting again. It's been awhile.

As for this winter, I actually starting looking at things a bit yesterday. Neutral cool or weak Nina gives us a good chance at a snowier/colder winter, IMO. Without an overwhelming Nina influence (mod or stronger), I do wonder if there's any carryover Nino effect...which isn't necessarily a bad thing. 1983-84 may not be an awful analog at this early stage.   

[Chicago WX]

8 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

For the upcoming winter, I've seen 1983-84 thrown out as somewhat of an analog (not necessarily the strongest analog) in various sub-forums & discussions.

December 1983 was my first weather memory.  I was 9 years old and actually remember the intense cold.  As often happens with events at that age, I came to expect that all winters were supposed to be cold like that; I had no idea what a unique month that was.

Here are the high/low temps in Chicago (ORD) for Dec 17-30, 1983...it has to be close to the coldest 2-week period on record.

It is the coldest 14 day period in Chicago's recorded history.

Top 5 coldest mean average temperatures (14 day):

1) 0.4˚ - Dec 17-30, 1983

2) 1.0˚ - Jan 27-Feb 9, 1895 and Dec 18-31, 1983

4) 1.1˚ - Dec 16-29, 1983

5) 1.7˚ - Jan 28-Feb 10, 1895

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Chicago WX said:

Well, I picked a good day to lurk, lol. 

Seriously though, everything is fine with me. Life is good. Probably a couple of reasons I haven't posted much in the last year or so, but that's neither here nor there. I'm starting to get a bit of the weather fever again, so you all may have to deal with me posting again. It's been awhile.

As for this winter, I actually starting looking at things a bit yesterday. Neutral cool or weak Nina gives us a good chance at a snowier/colder winter, IMO. Without an overwhelming Nina influence (mod or stronger), I do wonder if there's any carryover Nino effect...which isn't necessarily a bad thing. 1983-84 may not be an awful analog at this early stage.   

Sup

I agree with your thoughts.  You can find a number of pretty good winters that were cool neutral or weak Nina but like anything, there are exceptions.

[beavis1729]

2 hours ago, Chicago WX said:

It is the coldest 14 day period in Chicago's recorded history.

Top 5 coldest mean average temperatures (14 day):

1) 0.4˚ - Dec 17-30, 1983

2) 1.0˚ - Jan 27-Feb 9, 1895 and Dec 18-31, 1983

4) 1.1˚ - Dec 16-29, 1983

5) 1.7˚ - Jan 28-Feb 10, 1895

Thank you sir - I knew I could count on you to check the numbers.

[cyclone77]

3 hours ago, Chicago WX said:

Well, I picked a good day to lurk, lol. 

Seriously though, everything is fine with me. Life is good. Probably a couple of reasons I haven't posted much in the last year or so, but that's neither here nor there. I'm starting to get a bit of the weather fever again, so you all may have to deal with me posting again. It's been awhile.

As for this winter, I actually starting looking at things a bit yesterday. Neutral cool or weak Nina gives us a good chance at a snowier/colder winter, IMO. Without an overwhelming Nina influence (mod or stronger), I do wonder if there's any carryover Nino effect...which isn't necessarily a bad thing. 1983-84 may not be an awful analog at this early stage.   

Nice to hear from ya.  

[IWXwx]

Thanks for checking in Tim and I'm glad to here that everything's okay. I hope to hear more from you this upcoming winter. My superstitious self blamed our craptastic winter on you not posting.

Oh, and I enjoy snow in the winter. Enough of this icebox talk.

[Chicago WX]

Season snowfall totals in cool neutral and weak Ninas (since 1949-50). Purple shaded is the highest total in that timeframe...blue is a top 10 season...and green is at and above the median season total. I used CPC's try-monthly ONI numbers from met fall to winter, and averaged those numbers, to try to account for the lag effect (2-3 months) in ENSO's influence...or lack of, in some cases. IL, IN, IA, KY, and MI below. Click the charts to enlarge.

[Chicago WX]

MI, MN, MO, OH, and WI cool neutral totals. 

[Chicago WX]

MI, MN, MO, OH, and WI weak Nina totals.

[Thundersnow12]

I'm with Cyclone....can't be worse than last winter. The November storm was pretty great but after that sucked.

Agree with others on what has been posted above regarding chances for snowier than normal

[CP_WinterStorm]

On 8/18/2016 at 2:43 PM, Thundersnow12 said:

I'm with Cyclone....can't be worse than last winter. The November storm was pretty great but after that sucked.

Agree with others on what has been posted above regarding chances for snowier than normal

Hey guys! Longtime lurker here from another forum, whose name I will not mention, and figured I would finally join in on the fun. As a person who doesn't like the summertime heat and humidity one bit, I am liking the mentions of cooler weather and a decent winter this early on. I'm rooting for a snowier winter, especially after last years' nonsense. If it would not have been for the local blizzard on February 24th, the season would have been paltry at best here in Crown Point.

I've made a simple observation, and I am wondering if anyone else has noticed it also. It seems that "the blob" in the eastern Pacific that drove the winter of '13-'14 is reappearing. What would be the likelihood that this sticks around into winter and drives a winter similar to '13-'14? It wouldn't catch my attention as much, but to my untrained eye, it would appear we are heading for a similar ENSO state also (aka., La Nada/very weak La Nina).

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, CP_WinterStorm said:

Hey guys! Longtime lurker here from another forum, whose name I will not mention, and figured I would finally join in on the fun. As a person who doesn't like the summertime heat and humidity one bit, I am liking the mentions of cooler weather and a decent winter this early on. I'm rooting for a snowier winter, especially after last years' nonsense. If it would not have been for the local blizzard on February 24th, the season would have been paltry at best here in Crown Point.

I've made a simple observation, and I am wondering if anyone else has noticed it also. It seems that "the blob" in the eastern Pacific that drove the winter of '13-'14 is reappearing. What would be the likelihood that this sticks around into winter and drives a winter similar to '13-'14? It wouldn't catch my attention as much, but to my untrained eye, it would appear we are heading for a similar ENSO state also (aka., La Nada/very weak La Nina).

 

Hey there.  Yeah, last winter had 3 highlights for me...the November 21 storm, the December 28 sleet storm, and the February 24 storm that you mentioned.  Wasn't great overall but consider myself lucky that there was some excitement mixed in an overall suck sandwich.

That is quite a warm pool off the west coast.  The ENSO state could be similar to 2013-14 but a difference this time is that we are coming off a strong Nino, which may mean some carryover aspects.  Also, 2013-14 is a pretty high bar that is not likely to repeat in a given year, so it would be wise to keep expectations in check.  Anyhow, I'm more optimistic than last year.

[CP_WinterStorm]

18 hours ago, Hoosier said:

 

Hey there.  Yeah, last winter had 3 highlights for me...the November 21 storm, the December 28 sleet storm, and the February 24 storm that you mentioned.  Wasn't great overall but consider myself lucky that there was some excitement mixed in an overall suck sandwich.

That is quite a warm pool off the west coast.  The ENSO state could be similar to 2013-14 but a difference this time is that we are coming off a strong Nino, which may mean some carryover aspects.  Also, 2013-14 is a pretty high bar that is not likely to repeat in a given year, so it would be wise to keep expectations in check.  Anyhow, I'm more optimistic than last year.

I am just south of you in Crown Point, but was in Minnesota for the sleet storm. Otherwise I am sure that would be on my list also.

No, and I understand that, but it makes me wonder just how much of an impact it will have. That is, if it sticks around as it is very early in the game still. I'm so over this heat and humidity though that it's got me looking more at the distant future than in the near-term.

[beavis1729]

Not sure where to put this - a good paper on the winter of 1887-88. This was the last in a 6-year period of brutal winters in the upper Midwest- the last hurrah of the little ice age. 

http://climate.umn.edu/pdf/mn_winter_1887-1888.pdf

[Jonger]

We are due for a good volcano eruption. Krakatoa dropped the northern hemisphere summer temps 2.2F! Most likely the entire planet dropped by the same amount for a year. The climate impact of Krakatoa makes me wonder if we could geoengineer some of the heat out of the planet (hopefully without the acid rain).

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1883_eruption_of_Krakatoa#Global_climate

[CP_WinterStorm]

10 hours ago, Jonger said:

We are due for a good volcano eruption. Krakatoa dropped the northern hemisphere summer temps 2.2F! Most likely the entire planet dropped by the same amount for a year. The climate impact of Krakatoa makes me wonder if we could geoengineer some of the heat out of the planet (hopefully without the acid rain).

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1883_eruption_of_Krakatoa#Global_climate

Anyone know when the last eruption was that had an impact on the climate? Was it Pinatubo, or has there been one since that I'm not recalling?

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, CP_WinterStorm said:

Anyone know when the last eruption was that had an impact on the climate? Was it Pinatubo, or has there been one since that I'm not recalling?

I think that was probably the last one that had significant impacts on the climate.  The tropical volcanic eruptions tend to have bigger climate impact, though there can be some exceptions (particularly if a volcano farther north erupts for a very long amount of time).

[michsnowfreak]

All things considered, early signs for the winter are once again promising. Could be a very active storm track.

[michsnowfreak]

On 8/30/2016 at 11:13 PM, beavis1729 said:

Not sure where to put this - a good paper on the winter of 1887-88. This was the last in a 6-year period of brutal winters in the upper Midwest- the last hurrah of the little ice age. 

http://climate.umn.edu/pdf/mn_winter_1887-1888.pdf

looks like a great read...will have to read it all later.

[CP_WinterStorm]

36 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

All things considered, early signs for the winter are once again promising. Could be a very active storm track.

I am okay with that, persistent bitter cold doesn't exactly do much for me but a stormy pattern always makes for a fun winter.

[Chambana]

Honestly if we can get some strong persistent blocking out west, then a 1983-1984 scenario could be plausible. For those desperately wanting a front loaded winter, 83-84 was certainly that. 

 

Just please somebody stop the ugliness of Decembers since 2011, including two back to back decembers with less than 1" of snowfall. 

[Jonger]

1 minute ago, Chambana said:

Honestly if we can get some strong persistent blocking out west, then a 1983-1984 scenario could be plausible. For those desperately wanting a front loaded winter, 83-84 was certainly that. 

 

Just please somebody stop the ugliness of Decembers since 2011, including two back to back decembers with less than 1" of snowfall. 

Dec 2013 was cold. But, yea... Decembers have been pretty much garbage the last 5 years.

[michsnowfreak]

31 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Dec 2013 was cold. But, yea... Decembers have been pretty much garbage the last 5 years.

December 2011 had a few bouts of snow but it was mild and wet.

December 2012 had a nice wintry Christmas to New Years. The problem is the first 3 weeks of the month were basically April in December.

December 2013 was great. One big snowstorm and lots of cold, constant snowcover en route to a historic winter.

December 2014 was not that warm but was gray and quiet. Just a dusting of snow, though the winter less month would be forgotten in an otherwise severe winter.

December 2015 was a strong nino influenced inferno, the rest of the winter not good but a million times better than december.

 

We are due for a good December. The million dollar question however...will we ever have a below normal snowfall February again lol?

[andyhb]

Was thinking an active winter severe wise until the Nina naturally crapped the sack.

[Chambana]

December 2010 was great, and who could forget that Christmas Eve snowstorm? Epic timing. This winter could be interesting, with such a small sample size for super Ninos, let alone super Nino preceded by weak Nina (83-84) it's really a crapshoot on what could happen. 

 

 

[Chambana]

Still haven't reached La Niña threshold. ENSO neutral remains in place. 

[A-L-E-K]

lol @ the arctic and persistent n. pac warm pool

[Jonger]

37 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

lol @ the arctic and persistent n. pac warm pool

Since our cold forms over land, isn't this a good thing for eastern troughs?