Winter 2016-17 Discussion

[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, Jonger said:

13-14 was close. 

Yes it was.  I wasn't alive for 77-78 but looking through data, there's an argument that 13-14 matched it.  Of course if you are looking for a tiebreaker, there's the blizz of 78.

[csnavywx]

Not that excited for December yet. PV attenuation/partial split looks to favor a position on the Russian side of the pole (probably over Siberia). This positioning keeps the Pacific jet enhanced, continually flooding source regions with warm air and ensuring what cold air outbreaks are transient. Until I see a sustained break there, I'm skeptical. Obviously, always the transient, marginal cold or thread-the-needle scenario, but not looking for sustained cold until the Pacific cooperates.

[DAFF]

Jebman = Farmers almanac wish cast fantasy..

 blizz of 78 which trumps 13-14 in any hand

CSNAVYWX= voice of reason

 

 

[Jebman]

6 hours ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Stop posting 

There has never been so little ice in the Arctic, and sea temperatures in the Arctic are anomalously warm.

Consider what that could mean for sensible weather in the US.

I'll post a lot less, lol.

[London snowsquall]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Yes it was.  I wasn't alive for 77-78 but looking through data, there's an argument that 13-14 matched it.  Of course if you are looking for a tiebreaker, there's the blizz of 78.

Not for most places in the snow belt.   We had 70 inches plus by Jan 1/78.  Way better than 3 yes  ago.   A reasonable start this year with  more already in Nov than last couple years.      

[Hoosier]

12 minutes ago, London snowsquall said:

Not for most places in the snow belt.   We had 70 inches plus by Jan 1/78.  Way better than 3 yes  ago.   A reasonable start this year with  more already in Nov than last couple years.      

Yeah I was talking more regionwide with snow and cold, and looking at the 2 winters from start to finish.  

[michsnowfreak]

On 11/20/2016 at 9:37 PM, Hoosier said:

Yeah I was talking more regionwide with snow and cold, and looking at the 2 winters from start to finish.  

For Southeast Michigan it is not even close. 2013-14 was far more severe than 1977-78. Both were obviously textbook brutal winters regionwide, however in 1977-78, SE MI was sort of a "screwzone" compared to the rest of the region (still a brutal winter though), and in 2013-14, SE MI was ground zero (even though the entire region saw a brutal winter). Temps were very close, though when you include NDJFM total temp, 2013-14 was colder. Snowfall-wise, DTW saw 33.2" MORE snow in 2013-14 than 1977-78. Both winters were covered in snow basically from start to finish however the depth in 2014 was much deeper. Not even counting the dozens of days with T depth at the start and end of the season, 1"+ snowcover days were 91 in 1977-78 but 96 in 2013-14. Very close, however, when you look at 6"+ depth, 1977-78 saw 41 days but 2013-14 saw 65, and then 10"+ depth, 1977-78 saw just 6 days while 2013-14 saw 46 days!!! Not only a record smashed for Detroit, but put this in perspective. Detroit saw 46 days with 10"+ snowdepth in 2013-14...an AVERAGE winter sees 49 days of 1"+ depth! Also, 2013-14 didnt have any down time from start to finish. In 1977-78 saw a very active first half, but winter was basically a boring, dry tundra after the blizzard. Essentially the entire 2nd half of winter was brutally cold and bone dry and plenty of snow on the ground, but literally no action other than a few light snowfalls.

[nokywx]

Growing up in South Bend...77-78 was, and always will be, the gold standard.  172" for the season...monster late-November LE storm...solid December...historic 86.1" in January.  

I could maybe see the 86.1 being matched, as in Dec. 2000, I know parts of SW Mich. were around 70 in. for the month.  But the 172 is really mind-boggling for South Bend's latitude, and lack of elevation.

 

[Hoosier]

The ongoing drought in the southeast is very reminiscent of the fall of 2007.  We all know what the following winter was like. There's always a question of whether the pattern is dictating the dryness or the dryness is dictating the pattern, but you'd have to think that prospects for reversing that anytime soon aren't so great. Ninas tend to have some semblance of a southeast ridge anyway.

[RogueWaves]

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The ongoing drought in the southeast is very reminiscent of the fall of 2007.  We all know what the following winter was like. There's always a question of whether the pattern is dictating the dryness or the dryness is dictating the pattern, but you'd have to think that prospects for reversing that anytime soon aren't so great. Ninas tend to have some semblance of a southeast ridge anyway.

1st chinks in the armor on tap per CPC:

 

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

1st chinks in the armor on tap per CPC:

 

They'll need a lot, and consistently.  Massive area of D3 and D4.

[Stebo]

26 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

They'll need a lot, and consistently.  Massive area of D3 and D4.

Yeah 2 systems worth of rain will be nothing compared to their deficits. Also I do agree with 07-08 comparison, it is one that I have been making all the way back to early this summer. I hope we have a winter like that and if the active next 2 weeks are any indication, we might have a wild winter forthcoming.

[Hoosier]

18 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yeah 2 systems worth of rain will be nothing compared to their deficits. Also I do agree with 07-08 comparison, it is one that I have been making all the way back to early this summer. I hope we have a winter like that and if the active next 2 weeks are any indication, we might have a wild winter forthcoming.

07-08 also gets some points for being a Nino to Nina flip, though the magnitudes are obviously different this time around. The last 2 trimonthly readings for this year were -0.6 and -0.7... it's still quite possible we don't reach official Nina status via the 5 consecutive trimonthly protocol but whether it happens or not is sort of academic.

[Roger Smith]

In terms of heavy lake effect snows, Jan 1976 was worse than 1978, I had friends in London ON and was living in the Georgian Bay snowbelt, recalling that London got so much snow in Jan 1976 that crews had to place location flags on fire hydrants and many side streets had 15 feet of snow on either side in huge banks (the actual snowfall was probably about four or five feet). For some reason the Georgian Bay snowbelt only had normal amounts of snow, albeit some coming down almost every day. 

From what I recall of 1978, there wasn't a lot of snow on the ground when the blizzard hit on Jan 25-26 and when that was done, about three feet of wind-driven drifting snow anywhere west of a line from about K-W to Barrie, east of that snowfalls were quite small and it was a windstorm mainly. 

There were also some massive snow squall accumulations in the winter of 1970-71 on several occasions and by February of that winter, although it didn't snow much, many roads in central Ontario became unplowable until the spring melt. The worst of that snow fell in the last seven days of January in what was probably the all-time epic snow squall event in central Ontario. 

On the other side of the coin, the winter of 1982-83 produced very little lying snowfall and even in the Georgian Bay snowbelt there was almost no snow in the bush all winter. 

 

As to this coming winter, I expect it will be better than average for lake effect snowfalls and about average for non-lake effect or synoptic scale snowfalls, and January will probably be 4 to 6 degrees below normal, while February could swing from below to above about mid-way through. I think the potential is there for one memorable blizzard (not only lake effect but with that added on) and the most likely time for it would be Jan 20-24. 

[RogueWaves]

On 11/23/2016 at 3:32 PM, Hoosier said:

They'll need a lot, and consistently.  Massive area of D3 and D4.

 

On 11/23/2016 at 4:00 PM, Stebo said:

Yeah 2 systems worth of rain will be nothing compared to their deficits. Also I do agree with 07-08 comparison, it is one that I have been making all the way back to early this summer. I hope we have a winter like that and if the active next 2 weeks are any indication, we might have a wild winter forthcoming.

Where did my post say ANYTHING about wiping out their ongoing drought conditions?  But, it's gotta start sometime, some way. There are those who would say a drought ends with a flood, lol

[IWXwx]

Many of you are probably aware of this, but Dr. Cohen at MIT is predicting an early, cold winter for the eastern and central US due to his Siberian snow teleconnection:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-23/siberian-snow-theory-points-to-an-early-and-cold-winter-in-u-s

Here is his AO and PV analysis and forecast:

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

[Hoosier]

37 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Many of you are probably aware of this, but Dr. Cohen at MIT is predicting an early, cold winter for the eastern and central US due to his Siberian snow teleconnection:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-23/siberian-snow-theory-points-to-an-early-and-cold-winter-in-u-s

Here is his AO and PV analysis and forecast:

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

Cohen has had some misses as the article points out, possibly in part due to strong ENSO cycles overwhelming things.  We don't have that this year so we'll see what happens.  His work is interesting but I'm in the camp of needing to see more years/data to really be a believer.

[Chambana]

It's just hard to believe in, when the arctic, Canada and the United States are running well above normal, damn near coast to coast, at least for the month of November. 

[Hoosier]

FWIW, I looked at the top 10 warmest Novembers for Chicago (2016 is likely to make the list) and snowfall for those seasons and found no real meaningful correlation for Chicago. 4 years ended up snowier than average and 6 years were less snowy than average, but 2 of the below average years were within a couple inches of average.  Did not check to see if the top warmest Novembers meant anything as far as winter temps.

[IWXwx]

48 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Cohen has had some misses as the article points out, possibly in part due to strong ENSO cycles overwhelming things.  We don't have that this year so we'll see what happens.  His work is interesting but I'm in the camp of needing to see more years/data to really be a believer.

Yeah, he predicted colder than normal for the eastern half of the country last winter, but Mr. Nino put the smackdown on that. As you said, without a strong ENSO influence, his theory may have more relevance.

If we don't get some of that Siberian cold to head our way soon, we could be fighting thermal issues for awhile, even though we may remain in an active pattern. Translation: 34 and rain.

[vortex]

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

FWIW, I looked at the top 10 warmest Novembers for Chicago (2016 is likely to make the list) and snowfall for those seasons and found no real meaningful correlation for Chicago. 4 years ended up snowier than average and 6 years were less snowy than average, but 2 of the below average years were within a couple inches of average.  Did not check to see if the top warmest Novembers meant anything as far as winter temps.

I was watching Skilling one night a week or so back.  I believe he said 8 of the 10 winters with the warmest Novembers ended up above average temp wise.

[Hoosier]

25 minutes ago, vortex said:

I was watching Skilling one night a week or so back.  I believe he said 8 of the 10 winters with the warmest Novembers ended up above average temp wise.

Hmmm, I just checked the numbers and am coming up with 6 warmer than average and 4 colder than average.  Did he mention if he was just doing DJF or also including March?

[vortex]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Hmmm, I just checked the numbers and am coming up with 6 warmer than average and 4 colder than average.  Did he mention if he was just doing DJF or also including March?

No he didn't.  He may have said similar autumn temps and not just November. I know he said 8 of the 10 winters that followed ended up above normal.

[Hoosier]

FWIW, new CanSIPS run 

 

 

 

[nwohweather]

On 11/20/2016 at 7:02 PM, Jonger said:

13-14 was close. 

That winter whooped 77-78 in Toledo by over a foot. 86" fell topping 77-78's record of 73"

[Indystorm]

Happy meteorological winter everyone!  Maybe we can get this show on the road sometime this month of December.

[Jonger]

Storm track trending south -- dramatically, for the Thursday system. Euro and GFS.

[Jonger]

12 hours ago, Hoosier said:

FWIW, new CanSIPS run 

 

 

 

I think those models only look at the current day and reprint the same output going forward.

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Jonger said:

I think those models only look at the current day and reprint the same output going forward.

I don't think it works that way but I have read that the seasonal models try to account for climate change (have to say I'm not sure about CanSIPS).  The temperature output on this run seems a bit suspect given the 500 mb map.  If that 500 mb map is right, you'd expect the opposite with warmest departures in the southern US.

[RogueWaves]

6 hours ago, Jonger said:

Storm track trending south -- dramatically, for the Thursday system. Euro and GFS.

Would love to see anything close to today's Euro come to fruition. UP (western part initially) looking better-n-better for synoptic + LEh + LES

#michiganrockswinter

 

Snowfall follow-up map. Let's do this!