Winter 2016-17 Discussion

[Hoosier]

Yes it's still early but believe it or not, last year's thread was created in June.

One of the storylines so far this year has been the failure of La Nina to really develop following last winter's strong El Nino, and the latest projections are suggesting an event that may struggle to even achieve official Nina status for the winter.  A cool neutral or weak Nina winter would have implications from a forecasting perspective and in some ways make the forecast more challenging compared to last winter. 

Here are a couple of seasonal models for DJF temperatures.  As you can see, they are at odds with each other.

 

 

[andyhb]

Another buzzkill of a severe season coming up. 

Although the recent changes with the PDO intrigue me, was really looking for a stronger push toward a Nina to be more sure of a favorable pattern early next year and into spring.

[Hoosier]

La Ninas following El Ninos, since 1950:

1954-55

1964-65

1970-71

1973-74

1988-89

1995-96

1998-99

2007-08

2010-11

 

Cool neutral or weak Nina following El Nino, since 1950:

1954-55

1959-60

1964-65

1966-67

1980-81

1983-84

1995-96

2005-06

 

Cool neutral or weak Nina following strong El Nino, since 1950:

1966-67

1983-84

 

[buckeye]

21 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yes it's still early but believe it or not, last year's thread was created in June.

One of the storylines so far this year has been the failure of La Nina to really develop following last winter's strong El Nino, and the latest projections are suggesting an event that may struggle to even achieve official Nina status for the winter.  A cool neutral or weak Nina winter would have implications from a forecasting perspective and in some ways make the forecast more challenging compared to last winter. 

Here are a couple of seasonal models for DJF temperatures.  As you can see, they are at odds with each other.

 

 

 

 

MA forum started their's March 1st 

[Hoosier]

Hi buckeye

[Chicago Storm]

I'll take that JAMSTEC projection.

[Stebo]

2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

I'll take that JAMSTEC projection.

Neutral to slightly above normal precipitation with that as well. I do think it is a bit overdone on the warmth out west though especially if a -PDO locks in.

[BuffaloWeather]

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

La Ninas following El Ninos, since 1950:

1954-55

1964-65

1970-71

1973-74

1988-89

1995-96

1998-99

2007-08

2010-11

 

Cool neutral or weak Nina following El Nino, since 1950:

1954-55

1959-60

1964-65

1966-67

1980-81

1983-84

1995-96

2005-06

 

Cool neutral or weak Nina following strong El Nino, since 1950:

1966-67

1983-84

 

Great stuff as usually Hoosier, actually looking forward to winter more this year than last. Last year we didn't have a winter and this summer has been hot. Central AC is now on my must have list in house shopping. Are you thinking a Moderate or Strong La Nina look? I think a Moderate/Weak La Nina has much better winters than strong ones do.

[cyclone77]

Whatever happens, has about a 0.1% chance at being a worse winter than the last no-show of a winter.

[Chambana]

9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Great stuff as usually Hoosier, actually looking forward to winter more this year than last. Last year we didn't have a winter and this summer has been hot. Central AC is now on my must have list in house shopping. Are you thinking a Moderate or Strong La Nina look? I think a Moderate/Weak La Nina has much better winters than strong ones do.

Strong La Niña can be almost thrown out at this point, and moderate at this point is looking unlikely. Latest models have a very underwhelming Nina barely reaching the weak threshold. 83-84 could still be a decent analog, at this point anyway. 

 

Last year the writing was on the wall in October on what to expect during that super Nino, no doubt super ninos are the easiest winter to forecast.  This year however will be different, with anything from a 2010-2011 outcome, or a disaster 98-99 outcome. 

[josh_4184]

9 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Whatever happens, has about a 0.1% chance at being a worse winter than the last no-show of a winter.

I concur 110% 

[hlcater]

10 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Whatever happens, has about a 0.1% chance at being a worse winter than the last no-show of a winter.

4" of annual snowfall incoming

[Jonger]

DJF of 2015-2016 wasn't wall to wall crap.... December was so bad, it couldn't be saved by anything short of an epic Jan and Feb and that didn't happen. Those two months were roughly +2.5 here. December was +10.

[Hoosier]

Bad December is something that can happen in Ninos, so it wasn't all that surprising that it was bad though perhaps the magnitude was.  My guess is December won't be a throwaway month and we see a more normal start to winter this time.

[josh_4184]

11 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

83-84  Historic December cold, Historic February warmth.

Anyway, it can't get any worse than last winters pure suckage. I nice snowy December after 2 dull ones in a row would be nice.

Having a good December would be nice, i think almost everyone outside of Bo in the sub forum had a brown Christmas including my area which has only had a few in the last 50-60 years. 

[Jonger]

32 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Having a good December would be nice, i think almost everyone outside of Bo in the sub forum had a brown Christmas including my area which has only had a few in the last 50-60 years. 

Outside of the mountains, there was nowhere to ride for that enter month. Thankfully I had that mid  November storm help tide me over a tad. My biggest storm of all time locally.

[weatherbo]

52 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Having a good December would be nice, i think almost everyone outside of Bo in the sub forum had a brown Christmas including my area which has only had a few in the last 50-60 years. 

where you live specifically, there's a good chance you won't see another one for years.  As far as N lower goes, you are the spot.

[RogueWaves]

@ weatherbo

Yeah, he's in the spot and failed to mention that 3 days after Christmas he had a legit Winter Storm while some of us had to wait til February (or well, never) to get a decent 6+ event. For what last winter dealt, his area actually was one of the better places in the forum. First time since perhaps '72-73 that my area scored above avg snowfall during a strong Nino. We won't talk about when or how it got here, lol, but I can't complain either. I would think only your area beat his for number of days with a quality snow cover. 

[beavis1729]

For the upcoming winter, I've seen 1983-84 thrown out as somewhat of an analog (not necessarily the strongest analog) in various sub-forums & discussions.

December 1983 was my first weather memory.  I was 9 years old and actually remember the intense cold.  As often happens with events at that age, I came to expect that all winters were supposed to be cold like that; I had no idea what a unique month that was.

Here are the high/low temps in Chicago (ORD) for Dec 17-30, 1983...it has to be close to the coldest 2-week period on record.

12/17/83:  9/1

12/18/83:  3/-11

12/19/83:  6/-14

12/20/83:  19/0

12/21/83:  23/17

12/22/83:  19/-14

12/23/83:  -6/-18 

12/24/83:  -11/-25

12/25/83:  -5/-16

12/26/83:  10/-9

12/27/83:  19/10

12/28/83:  19/1

12/29/83:  1/-6

12/30/83:  10/-6

[josh_4184]

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

@ weatherbo

Yeah, he's in the spot and failed to mention that 3 days after Christmas he had a legit Winter Storm while some of us had to wait til February (or well, never) to get a decent 6+ event. For what last winter dealt, his area actually was one of the better places in the forum. First time since perhaps '72-73 that my area scored above avg snowfall during a strong Nino. We won't talk about when or how it got here, lol, but I can't complain either. I would think only your area beat his for number of days with a quality snow cover. 

Not sure I would call 7" of snow a legit winter storm up this way, didn't matter any since ground was barren up to that point. 

[Jonger]

49 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

For the upcoming winter, I've seen 1983-84 thrown out as somewhat of an analog (not necessarily the strongest analog) in various sub-forums & discussions.

December 1983 was my first weather memory.  I was 9 years old and actually remember the intense cold.  As often happens with events at that age, I came to expect that all winters were supposed to be cold like that; I had no idea what a unique month that was.

Here are the high/low temps in Chicago (ORD) for Dec 17-30, 1983...it has to be close to the coldest 2-week period on record.

12/17/83:  9/1

12/18/83:  3/-11

12/19/83:  6/-14

12/20/83:  19/0

12/21/83:  23/17

12/22/83:  19/-14

12/23/83:  -6/-18 

12/24/83:  -11/-25

12/25/83:  -5/-16

12/26/83:  10/-9

12/27/83:  19/10

12/28/83:  19/1

12/29/83:  1/-6

12/30/83:  10/-6

I was only 4.5 years old and I remember it too. It was so cold our tire blew out on the way home from my aunt & uncles home on Xmas eve.

[A-L-E-K]

warm and wet please

[Hoosier]

42 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

warm and wet please

 

Dry northwest flow hell incoming. 

[buckeye]

Farmers almanac calling for "siberian cold"....over much of the great lakes, OV, and eastern U.S.

Especially in February....temps as cold as 40 below normal.

 

here we go......

[Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Farmers almanac calling for "siberian cold"....over much of the great lakes, OV, and eastern U.S.

Especially in February....temps as cold as 40 below normal.

 

here we go......

40 below average is pretty rare...that's like January 1994 stuff. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

Farmers almanac calling for "siberian cold"....over much of the great lakes, OV, and eastern U.S.

Especially in February....temps as cold as 40 below normal.

 

here we go......

Rev up those Wind Chill Warnings!

In all seriousness, the farmers almanac is really not to be trusted, but I think you all knew that.

[Jonger]

Many lows will pass over Lansing and pound northern lower.

[IWXwx]

2 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Rev up those Wind Chill Warnings!

In all seriousness, the farmers almanac is really not to be trusted, but I think you all knew that.

It's my long range weather forecasting bible.

 

[cyclone77]

1 minute ago, IWXwx said:

It's my long range weather forecasting bible.

 

 

Where's Tim (ChicagoWX) been?  He's usually into these early discos about the upcoming winter.  Didn't post much last winter either.  Hope all is well.

[Hoosier]

37 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

 

Where's Tim (ChicagoWX) been?  He's usually into these early discos about the upcoming winter.  Didn't post much last winter either.  Hope all is well.

Talked to him fairly recently.  Busy with work is what he said but I suspect there could be more to it than that since his absence has been so prolonged.  Just a guess...I honestly don't know anything else.  He's my best weather board buddy and he brought a lot to the table so it would be nice to see him post more often if he can.