Carvers Gap Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Yeah, Chicago can honestly say their winter was a F; however, I'm more leniant for our region's grade. Give the terrible setup as mentioned, I'm more prone to give our winter a D or C- since we were able to squeeze out an ankle-biter not to mention December felt like December up 'til a few days before Christmas. So we weren't completely shut-out. Overall, still more snow than 2004-05 and 2011-12...plus not as frustrating as the snowdome winter of 2013-14. So definitely not the worst winter of the century. Ranks #5 worst for me. Yeah, I would prob go w a C- barring some late season miracle. I mean I have lived through a bunch of almost snowless winters in Knoxville. It can be worse than this one. Chatt folks are some of our most patient and realistic folks...been a tough season for them. Also, these late season hurricanes of recent seasons have not been a good sign for us. May be no correlation, but they have made me highly superstitious. I think the Super Nino cooked our winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Good points. If I have learned anything this winter it to never ignore the QBO. It really would have been a strong clue to many of the past winters. Man, isotherm and Webber nailed the winter forecast and with decent reasoning, meaning they didn't just get lucky. I still hold out hope for a Hail Mary, but realistically the models continue to be vacant of even minor events. Hey, glad you got some snow in Jan. My sister-in-law lives in Downeaster Maine. They have just been hammered. Got a text that showed a pic of 4' of snow on the ground. Well, let's hope for the rubber band to snap back in our direction soon! Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 I am not driven away by you Carvers Gap. I merely lack the knowledge in analyzing weather favorable for a severe threat or in the very least potential for thunderstorms. Snow is an easier beast to interpret and guesstimate especially when totals are shown. Storms on the other hand are complex systems with many different factors all required to create the right conditions over a very small local area. I typically sit in the background reading through the posts related to severe. If I post something and its wrong or misguided I like to be corrected. I would prefer to be humble and learn from mistakes. It is odd that the Tennessee valley forum is so small and lacking in users. Hopefully an active storm season sparks interest. As for what is left of winter I expect one more event to occur at least for some of us simply due to the 40 day window left for something to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 19 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: I am not driven away by you Carvers Gap. I merely lack the knowledge in analyzing weather favorable for a severe threat or in the very least potential for thunderstorms. Snow is an easier beast to interpret and guesstimate especially when totals are shown. Storms on the other hand are complex systems with many different factors all required to create the right conditions over a very small local area. I typically sit in the background reading through the posts related to severe. If I post something and its wrong or misguided I like to be corrected. I would prefer to be humble and learn from mistakes. It is odd that the Tennessee valley forum is so small and lacking in users. Hopefully an active storm season sparks interest. As for what is left of winter I expect one more event to occur at least for some of us simply due to the 40 day window left for something to happen. Thank you for that. You are doing great. Yep. Just a slow, slow winter. If you look at many of the storm threads...there will be 40k views in a week. Still 75k views w 1,500 posts is a big jump for thread views in our sub-forum. Getting anything "wintry" to talk about this winter has been like getting blood out of a turnip. We have always been a small group FWIW. But the content equals most other sub forums.......like I said in banter many of us would be thrilled to see some of our younger posters go into the sciences and better yet get a red tag. This is a Thomas Edison winter.....meaning we have discovered yet another one of the 10,000 ways not to make a light bulb, i.e. snowy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 I have my doubts about the 12z GFS and GEFS....as the GEFS has erroneously portrayed cold in the LR many times this winter. It has fooled me multiple times this season, and I know better. But because we are in rally cap mode...here goes. Enjoy it for six hours. If it verifies, should be cold just long enough to wipe-out everything getting ready to bloom early or in the current process of doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 But to be honest...this prob more like it. This is the general look of the GEM in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Probably time to start the spring thread with met spring right around the corner Carver,my apologies to you for my rant last evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 20 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Probably time to start the spring thread with met spring right around the corner Carver,my apologies to you for my rant last evening No problem, my brother. Agree, time for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 The GEFS has again left us as expected. But the weeklies say wk3 rally cap time...long shot city. <some sarcasm intended> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: The GEFS has again left us as expected. But the weeklies say wk3 rally cap time...long shot city. <some sarcasm intended> Best chance indeed by the weeklies,just need a storm.Hopefully it's right also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 On 2/19/2017 at 7:45 PM, Carvers Gap said: Respectfully, why are you posting the exact same post in both the SE forum and TN Valley forum? (Edit) my appoligies didn't know if same people was in both forums ill refrain from in the future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 its looking like next Thursday we are in for a deluge in the valley wish it was snow but a lot of rain setting up . will this pattern ever end or are we gonna flood away into spring like California? didn't know wich forum to post this hope its ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 49 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: my appoligies didn't know if same people was in both forums ill refrain from in the future I do not really frequent the Southeast Forum like I do this one, so I appreciate the post, not sure why it would matter if it were posted in both forums. I scan past material in all forums that I have already ready, pretty easy to do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 2 hours ago, Mrwolf1972 said: my appoligies didn't know if same people was in both forums ill refrain from in the future Makes sense. No need to apologize. And thanks for the response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 2 hours ago, Mrwolf1972 said: its looking like next Thursday we are in for a deluge in the valley wish it was snow but a lot of rain setting up . will this pattern ever end or are we gonna flood away into spring like California? didn't know wich forum to post this hope its ok. Here is the place to post IMO. Good info. We may need the rain...maybe not as much as CA. Seems like the North Fork of the Holston in Kingsport is a bit low for spring. I know Little River in Townsend is lower than normal, nothing extreme but low. Little River Outfitters has a nice write-up each day about the fishing there. They include a water flow report. Hatches are rolling 4-6 weeks early. But I think the water table is still low. So, we need above normal rainfall when we can get it. But again as you point out, we have to be careful what we wish for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Started a spring pattern thread for March, April, and May pattern discussion. Since we are within seven days, I went ahead and created it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 21, 2017 Author Share Posted February 21, 2017 The 3.5 inches of snow here represent the lowest total I've ever seen here or that my grandfather ever recorded here. Granted, I have seen accumulating show all the way into late April here, so I won't discount that a spring surprise could happen. But barring that, it will be the worst snow total of any cold season in at least the last 90 years here. I normally get around 20 inches. Had 3 consecutive above normal seasons. So this one being well below isn't a surprise, but the amount below is a surprise to me. The other thing is there were so few days where snow fell from the sky. Snow showery days without much accumulation are common here even in bad winters for totals. That wasn't a common thing this winter for sure. Amazing differences can happen here. 2 years ago yesterday it was around -10 degrees, yesterday's high here was 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 I actually got more snow this winter than I did last year. Last year I barely had half an inch. This year I got a solid inch from one storm. I'd give this one a D. Last year was a D-. I definitely want to see a very wet March this year. We are still running way behind. There was another small forest fire on the side of Lookout Mountain Friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Considering I have been very fortunate with this very unfavorable winter. I will give this winter a presumed D+ for being slightly less than half of average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Out of curiosity blunder, where are you getting your snowfall averages for there ? The average for the Honaker/Lebanon area is at least 25-30 inches. Wise's average was 48" as of 2010. Y'all should be withi 10-15" of there @ least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Second time typing this I lost it going to another page... anyway worldclimate and usclimatedata say Richlands... (Although in Tazewell county it is a much better marker due to Richlands being closer and more in line with Honaker's temperature.) gets just 17 inches annually. I am skeptical of this but I cannot disprove it with hard evidence. My source comes from my local high school with an annual average of 22 inches according to my science teacher. 10.5 inches is what I have measured so far this winter from all combined events this winter season. Half of this took place in the early January event the rest was spread out in the few other minor events. The last system ended with about 2.5 inches of heavy wet snow. This disappeared quickly but I got a good measurement on it in the early morning using a ruler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Interestingly there is a big difference in snow total averages for swva for areas of similar elevation and temperature. Take Wise for example as you mentioned, it according to us climate data has an average high of 42 and low of 24 in January with a snowfall average of 52 inches (supposedly)! Richlands on the other hand has an average high of 43F and low of 21F with an average of just 17 inches (supposedly). Both towns experience almost all the same weather events. Wise sits at 2500ft while Richlands sits at 2000ft. The only possible way I can see Wise getting more snow is through collected NW flow snow. http://www.weather.gov/gsp/nwflow. I do not think it accounts for such a large difference though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Thanks for the info Blunder. Interesting stuff and not surprising the disparities. I ran across several outlets that did the same for this area. Sad! I recall one having an amount the same as for Knoxville ! Lol. I have only measured 4.3" this season. Right with '73-74 and 90-91top 3 least snowy winters here in my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 my guess is inconsistent or inaccurate data collection... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: Thanks for the info Blunder. Interesting stuff and not surprising the disparities. I ran across several outlets that did the same for this area. Sad! I recall one having an amount the same as for Knoxville ! Lol. I have only measured 4.3" this season. Right with '73-74 and 90-91top 3 least snowy winters here in my lifetime. 1973/1974 was the same way in the Nashville area, though, I think 2016/2017 has both beat for warmth. Remember, back then we didnt realize we just had another couple of bad seasons to go through before the heavy hitting back-to-back seasons of the mid to late 1970's! Here is to hoping it is the same now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Unpinning the winter thread thereby guaranteeing someone will get a March surprise...you are welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 22, 2017 Author Share Posted February 22, 2017 Wise averages 23.4 inches per year according to NOAA. Most of the Plateau, SE KY, NE Tennessee and SWVA averages 15-25 inches per year with spikes well above that once you get above 3000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Only a dusting in Corbin to date. What a sad, sad so called "winter" this has been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Lol ! I guess they've lowered those "averages" considerably the last few years then, as they've raised the temp. avg. values based on recent data/warming climate. The Virginia state climatology office and sercc have different amounts. wonder why ? I guess it's where each gets it's data or comes up with it just estimating based on official stations. In any individuals case, I guess it's which/what they "want" to believe. In my case as far as my local, it's based on my personal non biased observations of about 40 years worth. Btw, I'm contacting Noaa to discuss why the change in the Wise averages and where that data came from. I'm a stickler for accuracy and honesty, always have been and always will be. John, we , as you know, are in an area that sees drastic increases in snow amounts at relatively short distances the further north you go, even without elevation increases. Also, Wise sits in an excellent downwind upslope location as opposed to further sw areas of the plateau, such as crossville. I think Carver can help me out here. Anyway, here's a couple good links if you want, imo, more detail and reasoning: highknoblandform.com and climate.virginia.edu/online_data.htm Check out thats records as well. Wise holds state offocial seasonal snowfall record. 124.2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 54 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Lol ! I guess they've lowered those "averages" considerably the last few years then, as they've raised the temp. avg. values based on recent data/warming climate. The Virginia state climatology office and sercc have different amounts. wonder why ? I guess it's where each gets it's data or comes up with it just estimating based on official stations. In any individuals case, I guess it's which/what they "want" to believe. In my case as far as my local, it's based on my personal non biased observations of about 40 years worth. Btw, I'm contacting Noaa to discuss why the change in the Wise averages and where that data came from. I'm a stickler for accuracy and honesty, always have been and always will be. John, we , as you know, are in an area that sees drastic increases in snow amounts at relatively short distances the further north you go, even without elevation increases. Also, Wise sits in an excellent downwind upslope location as opposed to further sw areas of the plateau, such as crossville. I think Carver can help me out here. Anyway, here's a couple good links if you want, imo, more detail and reasoning: highknoblandform.com and climate.virginia.edu/online_data.htm Check out thats records as well. Wise holds state offocial seasonal snowfall record. 124.2 inches. 23.4" seems really low. Upslope totals up there are crazy at times if I remember correctly. The border between KY and VA in that area seems to get hammered...I see their radar when I am watching events here in Kingsport. When we are scraping for 1-2" of snow here w upslope events, they are getting 4-8" or more. In a normal winter they can get a half dozen of just those events alone. They have a well-known flooding problem during winter which is a good indicator of how much snow they get. Seems like that average is suppressed quite a bit. The flooding problem has been pretty well documented. I bet if one could get their hands on those, they could get a pretty reliable snow avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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