jaxjagman Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 Looks interesting the first week of March.The SOI dropped 40 points the last couple days.The last 3 rises of the SOI above 20 points in a three day span we saw heights rise up into the Upper Plains,the last SOI drop of 20 there was lower heights,looks like a decent system coming out of Asia.Could be anything right now but i believe we'll see a good system in the Valley upcoming the first couple days of March somewhere around that time frame.,we'll see what the weeklies show tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 37 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Looks interesting the first week of March.The SOI dropped 40 points the last couple days.The last 3 rises of the SOI above 20 points in a three day span we saw heights rise up into the Upper Plains,the last SOI drop of 20 there was lower heights,looks like a decent system coming out of Asia.Could be anything right now but i believe we'll see a good system in the Valley upcoming the first couple days of March somewhere around that time frame.,we'll see what the weeklies show tonight. Indeed, the weeklies look good at 500, 850, and 2m for the time frame of very late Feb to mid-March. This is roughly days 11-32 w temps at or below normal w BN the rule. This time frame has been very consistent on the weeklies for quite some time. Could it be a mirage? Sure. But the EPS is beginning to show what is on the weeklies which is cold in the mid-section bleeding southeast. The SER will be a downstream result of the cold in the nation's mid-section but it strongly implies a storm track from the southeast to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Realistically, these windows have been whittled down to about a week once we reach reality and they have tended to moderate as we get closer. Still, an honest assessment is a a normal to BN late winter pattern during the time frame mentioned in my previous post...Do I buy it? Maybe portions of it...the weekly maps make it tempting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 I have my skeptic glasses on this AM. While the Weeklies maps sure look decent for weeks 2.0-4.5...the 12z EPS took a rather large step back last night. I certainly think the Weeklies might be on to something...but we have seen this before. Weeklies look nice but the EPS does not support it during subsequent runs. Will be interesting to see future runs. Sure seems like a trough is going to establish itself in the middle of the country. As w the 0z EPS, where that trough axis sets-up is important as we have little room for error being on the eastern edges of it. So, to use a Volquest term...time to pump the breaks on the Weeklies. Also, for most of us outside of elevations...if snow was ever to be in the forecast we really need it to be at night due to the sun's angle. So, that climo fact alone eliminates about half of the time we could see accumulation. Things are quickly working against us now in terms of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 17, 2017 Author Share Posted February 17, 2017 It used to be that I received at least one 3+ inch snow in March. There were rarely times we got less. Now March is more like April and it's hard to get more than an inch on a good day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 0z EPS again to a big step backwards from the Weeklies as it now has a trough in the West. Most models support this and is very similar to what the models did in early December(GEFS and EPS) which forecast a LR trough in the East only to pull it westward during later runs. At this point unless something changes, that run of the Weeklies either jumped too early or it was just wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 This has been the winter of the Model Mirage. They show something so good and enticing from a long distance, but as you get closer, it evaporates. I have a feeling the trough will end up in the west, as it has been most of the winter. We had a good run of an eastern based trough from 2013-2015. It gave us some decent cold through those winters, and even with super Nino last year, we had a better winter than the current one. It also blessed us with cooler, wetter summers until last year. I think the warm pool of water in the north Pacific was the main driver of our weather for those years. It even trumped the El Nino of last year, albeit briefly, and we had frequent cold outbreaks in 2013-14 even with little help from the NAO. That warm pool has shrunk, and late last year cooled to below normal. http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif I think as long as the North Pacific remains in a cooler state, the trough will be more apt to be in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Yeah, if that cool pool doesn't change by next October, might as well punt next winter too. I guess it depends on what the NAO decides to do in future winters. For an extended period we've had little from the North Atlantic (NAO), but we didn't really need it with the North Pacific helping out. Now that the North Pacific is no longer our friend, there's little to drive cold into our area and keep it here. If the NAO ever decided to go negative and stay there for a change during the winter instead of the summer, then we can have a winter similar to 09-10 (the last winter we had a prolonged -NAO). It seems the north Pacific and the North Atlantic really are major players in our weather. As long as you have at least one on your side, you can score a decent winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 The West has been due several good winters. They desperately needed the water they received this winter. We also were able to get much needed rain. This is one for the ages for our folks in western NA. Again, the models have not been bad this winter...inside of d10 they have been very good. D10+ is just gravy. I can remember a time when they would swing so wildly...they were wholly undependable. The QBO has been lousy. That is one metric that I will never ignore again. Keeping my fingers crossed for March Madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The West has been due several good winters. They desperately needed the water they received this winter. We also were able to get much needed rain. This is one for the ages for our folks in western NA. Again, the models have not been bad this winter...insided of d10 they have been very good. D10+ is just gravy. I can remember a time when they would swing so wildly...they were wholey undependable. The QBO has been lousy. That is one metric that I will never ignore again. Keeping my fingers crossed for March Madness. I concur,the early battering of the PV with the QBO this winter did severe damage to our winter.We would have been better off if the PV split earlier.Analogs missed this winter.But that's normal it seems with analogs in the winter time,seems to be a crap shoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbowman Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 I don't think the NAO is a major player in developing cold weather. It absolutely is the main player in keeping a cold regime locked in, but the EPO, PNA and AO are the drivers to deliver the cold air into our area. Sent from my LG-H918 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 3 hours ago, rbowman said: I don't think the NAO is a major player in developing cold weather. It absolutely is the main player in keeping a cold regime locked in, but the EPO, PNA and AO are the drivers to deliver the cold air into our area. Sent from my LG-H918 using Tapatalk true in winter,the east roots for a -NAO,we could care less here in Mid Tn and the western Valley we dont get winter storms unless its a freak storm that pulls moisture up to us.Storms that track through SE GA,NE FL with a -NAO and cut up is what the eastern valley wants but we in general miss out on anything big or anything at all for that matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 Should be some signs of a Rossby wave by the WPO #severeweather with the PNA crashing look for a SER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 Someone needs to start a spring thread because this winter is done maybe a cool snap,but other than that..meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 19, 2017 Author Share Posted February 19, 2017 When California floods in winter it's almost always bad news for our region for snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 Euro shows the boundary stalling out in the the Valley with a few short waves effecting us.This is the best ive seen in a while,Positive tilted trough into Mongolia into China will pump up the heights into Korea.This has severe written all over it 44 minutes ago, John1122 said: When California floods in winter it's almost always bad news for our region for snow chances. Think we got a half inch of snow John,doubt we see anymore this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 Alot of variables for next winter on the table,right now the enso is in a = state.The warm biased Euro shows possibly getting to a super Nino to a weaker one.The LDEO shows us going back to Nina more like in the summer while the Nasa shows us a super Nino possibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 The patern that is setting up end of month into march looks like a late fall early winter storms go south to Texas then north east to the great Lakes look's like our winter in the south is over we can look forward to a lot of severe weather and rain and warmth from the models right now my trees already have leaves and might have to mow soon hope we can do better next year. This winter has to be the weirdest I have ever seen down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 26 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: The patern that is setting up end of month into march looks like a late fall early winter storms go south to Texas then north east to the great Lakes look's like our winter in the south is over we can look forward to a lot of severe weather and rain and warmth from the models right now my trees already have leaves and might have to mow soon hope we can do better next year. This winter has to be the weirdest I have ever seen down here. Yup,the crappie Pac is to blame.When we should have cold it's not there for us.The SOI rose around 30 ponits the last couple days,look for a big warm into the upper plains the 2nd week of March,the euro even suggest this with a ridge into Mongolia and China Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 3 hours ago, Mrwolf1972 said: The patern that is setting up end of month into march looks like a late fall early winter storms go south to Texas then north east to the great Lakes look's like our winter in the south is over we can look forward to a lot of severe weather and rain and warmth from the models right now my trees already have leaves and might have to mow soon hope we can do better next year. This winter has to be the weirdest I have ever seen down here. Respectfully, why are you posting the exact same post in both the SE forum and TN Valley forum? (Edit) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Come on now,we are in warp zones in the Valley.Being he's from the eastern Valley the weather effects us different in the Mid into the west .You guys in the east post on the SE thread and not the Valley thread as well,this is uncalled for IMO Edit: We need to stop this,my self included.I learned alot from you myself speaking Carver with humility posting,if we don't agree with someone else's opinion let if fly by and not even comment or back it up for the matter with your opinion.I got bashed by Andyhb a couple years ago and rightfully so in a severe thread.I like this post Ed Vallee posted,it makes me google everything i'm not sure of,you guys even make me google things.Good group we have here for that matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Jax, that is just bizarre. Get a grip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Jax, that is just bizarre. Get a grip. Get a grip of what?You continuously run posters away and Mr Bob and Jeff agree with you for everything you say,good grief now.People might not know as much as you do but have to start at sometime?What ever man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 The questions still stands...why is the exact same post in two different regional threads? It was asked respectfully. You are creating an issue and putting words in my mouth that were never intended. Jax you have responded in anger multiple times on this forum. You have cussed and made accusations that are untrue in multiple posts during the past years - mostly late in the evening. Enough is enough. This thread has 75k+ views and over 1,500 replies which is a record for our small sub-forum during a very poor winter. We have new posters from all over the forum area. Folks come here to have civil conversations about the weather and to kick the dirt around. I am not here to stroke egos or give everyone a trophy. Not everybody is going to be happy all of the time. I am here to talk weather. Ease up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: The questions still stands...why is the exact same post in two different regional threads? It was asked respectfully. You are creating an issue and putting words in my mouth that were never intended. Jax you have responded in anger multiple times on this forum. You have cussed and made accusations that are untrue in multiple posts during the past years - mostly late in the evening. Enough is enough. This thread has 75k+ views and over 1,500 replies which is a record for our small sub-forum during a very poor winter. We have new posters from all over the forum area. Folks come here to have civil conversations about the weather and to kick the dirt around. I am not here to stroke egos or give everyone a trophy. Not everybody is going to be happy all of the time. I am here to talk weather. Ease up. Just saying,you should ease up on NEW posters.I said up above i can get better with my faults the same as you talked about here i reckon.. i was probably the worse poster here and might still be a couple years ago to some minds.MrWolf gave his thoughts of his upcoming pattern ahead,he might be right or he might be wrong,i might be wrong or i might be right,maybe its just time for me to move on and find another weather board without the police being involved.i mean,you're always the right one,right?..sigh....This board has always been biased of nothing but a spin off of the SE states(Carolinas),more eastern Valley not to many peeps even post past the Plateau,not that it matters to me just bringing up a point,when weather effects the Valley i point it out not leave it behind in a said so region like most do here,maybe others should follow this as well if you want to see the Valley expand on this site,good luck otherwise,,,life will happen tomorrow and so will i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Hot summer Hot fallHot winterI don't think anybody from the Valley region like any of those. That's a long run of bad weather. Naturally, it's going to cause some frustration. Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 4 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Just saying,you should ease up on NEW posters.I said up above i can get better with my faults the same as you talked about here i reckon.. i was probably the worse poster here and might still be a couple years ago to some minds.MrWolf gave his thoughts of his upcoming pattern ahead,he might be right or he might be wrong,i might be wrong or i might be right,maybe its just time for me to move on and find another weather board without the police being involved.i mean,you're always the right one,right?..sigh....This board has always been biased of nothing but a spin off of the SE states(Carolinas),more eastern Valley not to many peeps even post past the Plateau,not that it matters to me just bringing up a point,when weather effects the Valley i point it out not leave it behind in a said so region like most do here,maybe others should follow this as well if you want to see the Valley expand on this site,good luck otherwise,,,life will happen tomorrow and so will i Taking it to banter...my response will be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 5:11 AM, mempho said: Hot summer Hot fall Hot winter I don't think anybody from the Valley region like any of those. That's a long run of bad weather. Naturally, it's going to cause some frustration. Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk No doubt, Mempho. Glad to see you posting still. Been a bad streak for Memphis of all places, and you never complain. I would like to see a great winter for you guys over there so we can build the forum that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 No doubt, Memho. Glad to see you posting still. Been a bad streak for Memphis of all places, and you never complain. I would like to see a great winter for you guys over there so we can build the forum that way.Yes, there is no doubt in my mind that the lack of participation in the West is due to the terrible run we've been on. I do complain sometimes (because I'm human, just like everyone else) but my personal coping mechanism is to just move on to other things. Complaining never helps and it just puts me in a negative mood for all the other things in life. I know a lot of people are the same way and just ignore weather and weather forums until something exciting happens. I know the east has gotten plenty of shaft to because - overall- if you take out a couple of events over the past few years, it's been really bad as well. We had some good events from 2008 thru 2011 and a decent 2015. Heck, I did get 3 inches of snow in my backyard in January, and I have had more snow than Chicago in 2017. That just shows how bad winter has been in the eastern half of the country. Chicago has had 0.6 inches since the 17th of December or something like that. We'd be griping about that! The subforum will grow both out west and overall when good things happen. Just stay the course. Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, mempho said: Yes, there is no doubt in my mind that the lack of participation in the West is due to the terrible run we've been on. I do complain sometimes (because I'm human, just like everyone else) but my personal coping mechanism is to just move on to other things. I know a lot of people are the same way. I know the east has gotten plenty of shaft to because - overall- if you take out a couple of events over the past few years, it's been really bad as well. We had some good events from 2008 thru 2011 and a decent 2015. Heck, I did get 3 inches of snow in my backyard in January, and I have had more snow than Chicago in 2017. That just shows how bad winter has been in the eastern half of the country. Chicago has had 0.6 inches since the 17th of December or something like that. We'd be griping about that! Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk Good points. If I have learned anything this winter it to never ignore the QBO. It really would have been a strong clue to many of the past winters. Man, isotherm and Webber nailed the winter forecast and with decent reasoning, meaning they didn't just get lucky. I still hold out hope for a Hail Mary, but realistically the models continue to be vacant of even minor events. Hey, glad you got some snow in Jan. My sister-in-law lives in Downeaster Maine. They have just been hammered. Got a text that showed a pic of 4' of snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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