Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, Angry Smokey said: Thanks! Hoping for one more decent snow chance before we move on to next winter Have some good friends in Elizabethton BTW. Great place. The Euro and GFS have been phasing systems or getting close multiple times on each run during the past day FWIW. We really need a -NAO to have a chance. Right now the cold is missing from the equation as well and there is nothing to keep systems from cutting on some runs. That said, the southern jet appears to be really active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Angry Smokey said: Good stuff, so best place for models is what you linked above? I like Tropical Tidbits...Pivotal Weather is also good. Those two are great free sites. If you want a little more in depth for a decent price...the model center here on AmWx is good. I pay for WxBell during winter months, and then drop the subscription after March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angry Smokey Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I like Tropical Tidbits...Pivotal Weather is also good. Those two are great free sites. If you want a little more in depth for a decent price...the model center here on AmWx is good. I pay for WxBell during winter months, and then drop the subscription after March. Great stuff thank you! Lurked for a couple years and finally decided to post. Appreciate all the help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, *Flash* said: ^ Interesting tidbit from this morning's OHX forecast discussion. I think we can all agree regardless of today's trends, we got something on the board worth tracking. At this point, just give me snow somewhere within 200 miles of BNA and I will chase it. IMBY has lost a lot of meaning as this winter has progressed. I agree, the 18Z run of last nights GFS was a dream run, several opportunities if we just had a little more cold air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Here's an example of how lackluster this winter has been so far.....Mt. Leconte averages 100 inches of snow a year, but has only had 8 inches so far this season. Saw this while reading the daily blog post from the winter care taker up on top of the mountain (http://www.highonleconte.com/daily-posts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 55 minutes ago, Greyhound said: Here's an example of how lackluster this winter has been so far.....Mt. Leconte averages 100 inches of snow a year, but has only had 8 inches so far this season. Saw this while reading the daily blog post from the winter care taker up on top of the mountain (http://www.highonleconte.com/daily-posts) That is crazy. I think they will start making up some ground as the Weeklies are a great set-up for Mtn snows late this month and into early spring IMO. Highly unlikely they make-up all of it...I am not saying that. But it is the year of the comeback... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: That is crazy. I think they will start making up some ground as the Weeklies are a great set-up for Mtn snows late this month and into early spring IMO. Highly unlikely they make-up all of it...I am not saying that. But it is the year of the comeback... I believe March usually brings the heaviest snows to the highest elevations in east TN. More than any other month on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I noticed the Bradford buds are swelling, and even opening on some of the local trees. I don’t think I’ve ever seen trees blooming in early February before—not even during last year’s super warm, super Nino. Depressing, really. A lot of local fruit orchards could be in for a very bad season if this warmth continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 Two perfect track storms in the 7-14 day range and it's a heatwave for both. When LeConte can't even get snow you know it's a record breaker for a bad winter. Those of you in the far eastern areas that pulled 3-6 inches essentially won the lottery this year. We'll see if next year is any better. Right now signals are mixed at best. As it stands, unless we get a spring surprise, this is the least snowy winter ever in my area. Not sure what LeConte's least snow winter record is, but I'd be shocked if that's not on a solid pace for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 hours ago, dwagner88 said: I believe March usually brings the heaviest snows to the highest elevations in east TN. More than any other month on average. There have been some monsters during March above 3,500'. If the Weeklies are right...this might be one of those years. This winter reminds me very much of 89'. When if flipped warm, we never went back. But I usually don't throw in my last towel until the second week of March. The window at the end of the month would be decent if climo wasn't making things difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 hour ago, John1122 said: Two perfect track storms in the 7-14 day range and it's a heatwave for both. When LeConte can't even get snow you know it's a record breaker for a bad winter. Those of you in the far eastern areas that pulled 3-6 inches essentially won the lottery this year. We'll see if next year is any better. Right now signals are mixed at best. As it stands, unless we get a spring surprise, this is the least snowy winter ever in my area. Not sure what LeConte's least snow winter record is, but I'd be shocked if that's not on a solid pace for it. Let's just hope this isn't one of those bad winter couplets that you speak of....I am riding the solar min/weak Nino/QBO flip train and try to put that truth(bad winters are found in pairs) out of my mind. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 It was march 5, 2015 when we got our last 3+ inch snowstorm on the west side of the state. I would not be surprised if we had a late storm come through into march. It has happened before and it will happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: It was march 5, 2015 when we got our last 3+ inch snowstorm on the west side of the state. I would not be surprised if we had a late storm come through into march. It has happened before and it will happen again. As long as the southern jet is spitting out storms from the GOM, anything is on the table. We just need some cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Let's just hope this isn't one of those bad winter couplets that you speak of....I am riding the solar min/weak Nino/QBO flip train and try to put that truth(bad winters are found in pairs) out of my mind. LOL. Honestly I'm almost inclined to include last winter in the bad winter couplet. It was blow torch warm and most of the region was almost snow free. KY and VA border areas were the exception in the region. Warm/snow drought was the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: As long as the southern jet is spitting out storms from the GOM, anything is on the table. We just need some cold. Yeah, Having temps in the 60's for such a long duration in the winter months is a tough pill to swallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: Honestly I'm almost inclined to include last winter in the bad winter couplet. It was blow torch warm and most of the region was almost snow free. KY and VA border areas were the exception in the region. Warm/snow drought was the rule. You know...I did think about that. I really think the Super Nino just cooked the northern hemisphere. Maybe we can return to a more predictable state next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Yeah, Having temps in the 60's for such a long duration in the winter months is a tough pill to swallow. I have used my wood stove about 25% of what my normal usage would be...Wood for next year will be seasoned better as a silver lining. But yeah, we have given back 2-3 weeks at a time of prime winter months this year. Glad I don't own a ski slope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 45 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I have used my wood stove about 25% of what my normal usage would be...Wood for next year will be seasoned better as a silver lining. But yeah, we have given back 2-3 weeks at a time of prime winter months this year. Glad I don't own a ski slope... I'm sure your back will be appreciative of a few less swings on the ax this summer/fall, HA. What do you guys think of the Feb 25-30 strech? I was looking around and it looks like we may have some favorable conditions around that time frame for a snow storm. You all seeing anything of interest around that time?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbowman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Honestly I'm almost inclined to include last winter in the bad winter couplet. It was blow torch warm and most of the region was almost snow free. KY and VA border areas were the exception in the region. Warm/snow drought was the rule. We did finish above seasonal averages for snow here in the Nashville area for the first time in several years. That was thanks to the one big dump in late January of 7+ inches. Sent from my LG-H918 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just heard thunder...start the clock. Snow within two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Thinking the same thing, Carver...didn't we have some severe weather in early March in 1993? This volatile weather can produce some wild swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 It's likely to be snow showery tomorrow. So the thunder rule will probably hold. The 18z tried, actually had some snow on the northern fringe down into Georgia. We know there's a 90 percent change that storm comes north with it's precip shield and track, the question will be about cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Model ► GFS Zoom ► Continental US Still 9 days out so take it with a grain of salt and enjoy looking at the possibilities until the map goes in a completely different direction on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 With the light snowshowers today the seasonal total for Honaker is now 7.50 inches. To me this seems more like an event that would occur in late march given the thunderstorms that preceded it. A little bit of a shock as well to go from low 70's to upper 20's in 48 hours. It's times like this I can simply admire our mesothermal climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 I hate to get sucked in, but the suppressed Miller A in the GOM is about what you want to see at this point from the GFS. Take the middle ground between it and the CMC/Euro and the track is perfect. Colder temps are beginning to show as well. Even the northern track edge Euro/CMC aren't far off on temps. Have the storm along the GOM and the area would likely see wintry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, John1122 said: I hate to get sucked in, but the suppressed Miller A in the GOM is about what you want to see at this point from the GFS. Take the middle ground between it and the CMC/Euro and the track is perfect. Colder temps are beginning to show as well. Even the northern track edge Euro/CMC aren't far off on temps. Have the storm along the GOM and the area would likely see wintry precip. LOL. I know...I am watching it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: LOL. I know...I am watching it as well. Me too, guess I am a sucker for train wrecks. Good news is, this one has a chance to come off the tracks later vs soooner.... it's a good look, even if not currently a snowy one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 John, what time frame are you talking about re your latest post? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 18 minutes ago, WinterWonderland said: John, what time frame are you talking about re your latest post? Thanks. Was wondering same thing really, not seeing anything except maybe seasonal temps, which are now approaching 50 for highs Middle TN area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 There are actually at least two Miller A windows...I suspect John is looking ar the one next TR. That is the first one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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