Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 And 12z Dr No says, "No." Feels like spring today. I can't help but feel we are now in a spring-like pattern w some cold just to keep Feb honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 The MJO is forecast to be high amplitude phase 8 within a couple of weeks and stay there for several days. This is the analog of years in the last 40 where the MJO was in Phase 8 for a several days in a row in February at high amplitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 59 minutes ago, John1122 said: The MJO is forecast to be high amplitude phase 8 within a couple of weeks and stay there for several days. This is the analog of years in the last 40 where the MJO was in Phase 8 for a several days in a row in February at high amplitude. Should be a lag right as it takes 7-10 days for the MJO impacts to reach us, right? So 10 days in the tour roughly and a 7-10 day lag...I am thinking closer to the 20th. That said, the MJO plot may be at a higher amplitude, but it moves pretty quickly through the tour....so the effects may get here quicker if the trend continues. Seems like two weeks would be on the fast end of things...am I missing something? Honest question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Should be a lag right as it takes 7-10 days for the MJO impacts to reach us, right? So 10 days in the tour roughly and a 7-10 day lag...I am thinking closer to the 20th. That said, the MJO plot may be at a higher amplitude, but it moves pretty quickly through the tour....so the effects may get here quicker if the trend continues. Seems like two weeks would be on the fast end of things...am I missing something? Honest question. It takes 10-14 days after it leaves 6 to establish a trough in the East with colder than normal temps here. It's actually colder in 8 when it's lower amplitude or even in the COD on the 8 side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Winter may have the last laugh with a final parting shot later this month, but I'm about over always looking to the future for something good for us. I'll welcome a surprise snow, but mentally, I'm ready to move on to the next season. I'm just thankful I had one decent snow this year...unlike last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 12 minutes ago, JayCee said: Winter may have the last laugh with a final parting shot later this month, but I'm about over always looking to the future for something good for us. I'll welcome a surprise snow, but mentally, I'm ready to move on to the next season. I'm just thankful I had one decent snow this year...unlike last year. We are on the same page; ready to move on to Spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 21 minutes ago, JayCee said: Winter may have the last laugh with a final parting shot later this month, but I'm about over always looking to the future for something good for us. I'll welcome a surprise snow, but mentally, I'm ready to move on to the next season. I'm just thankful I had one decent snow this year...unlike last year. Agree with every word. You and me both. I will gladly accept any bonus snow, but my expectations are set low...like at nothing. That -NAO on the GEFS keeps me somewhat interested...hope springs eternal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 16 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: We are on the same page; ready to move on to Spring! For me it is a different case I feel as though we just experienced Spring in January. One system for you is fine but not in my case. Climates totally different. 7 inches so far here 3 more to go to reach 10 inches. Which I hope to receive at minimum. Average is 15-20 depending on what source. About Mid- March I will shift gears to Severe weather heh...heh. 3 more inches isn't to much to ask for right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozzyman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 hours ago, BlunderStorm said: For me it is a different case I feel as though we just experienced Spring in January. One system for you is fine but not in my case. Climates totally different. 7 inches so far here 3 more to go to reach 10 inches. Which I hope to receive at minimum. Average is 15-20 depending on what source. About Mid- March I will shift gears to Severe weather heh...heh. 3 more inches isn't to much to ask for right? I'm on the other side of Big A Mountain from you and I concur. Some of our biggest snows have occurred in March but unless we get a decent storm track and the cold to go along with it, we probably won't see one this year. At least the MJO could be heading towards phase 8! Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 12 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Agree with every word. You and me both. I will gladly accept any bonus snow, but my expectations are set low...like at nothing. That -NAO on the GEFS keeps me somewhat interested...hope springs eternal. It almost seems as if winter was a non-event anyway. We had record warmth and dryness up until very late November, when the models starting advertising the “pattern flip.” While it did get wetter, thankfully, the southeast ridge kept rearing its ugly head and the much advertised –NAO/-AO never really happened except for a brief spell in early January. The models keep dropping hints that something better may happen “out there” somewhere in the future, but at some point climatology will take over as the sun angle increases. Time is not on our side. February, and even March, can certainly give us a great surprise even when all the indices say no, and I’ll welcome it. But I’m not expecting it. When it comes to this winter, set your expectations low and you won’t be disappointed. And if and when some winter weather finally shows up, you’ll be pleasantly surprised. J Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 This makes you wanna pull your hair out.So many times we've been waiting on a -AO since met winter started and has never yet verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 16 hours ago, JayCee said: Winter may have the last laugh with a final parting shot later this month, but I'm about over always looking to the future for something good for us. I'll welcome a surprise snow, but mentally, I'm ready to move on to the next season. I'm just thankful I had one decent snow this year...unlike last year. This! I'm already gearing up for spring/summer gardening. One thing is for sure, this winter has been friggin excellent for winter gardening here. I've got the best looking crop of onions, garlic, kale, broccoli, and cabbage I've ever had. The "cold" shots haven't even phased it. Time to start some mater seedlings in the green house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 2, 2017 Author Share Posted February 2, 2017 More and more it's becoming likely that a gulf storm rolls through around next Friday. It's been there for quite a number of runs in a row. Track is still open but it was almost perfect for the valley region on the 12z GFS. Last night it was a very suppressed solution that bloomed a little too late. Today it's track from Dallas to Tallahassee to off the Charleston area is essentially as good as it gets for all of Tennessee. Canadian has a storm a day earlier and 200 miles north that hits Eastern Kentucky. The consistent southern track in the wake of a huge lakes cutter makes sense. We will see if it maintains or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 hour ago, John1122 said: More and more it's becoming likely that a gulf storm rolls through around next Friday. It's been there for quite a number of runs in a row. Track is still open but it was almost perfect for the valley region on the 12z GFS. Last night it was a very suppressed solution that bloomed a little too late. Today it's track from Dallas to Tallahassee to off the Charleston area is essentially as good as it gets for all of Tennessee. Canadian has a storm a day earlier and 200 miles north that hits Eastern Kentucky. The consistent southern track in the wake of a huge lakes cutter makes sense. We will see if it maintains or not. First real post, second official post here. I want to thank you guys for the tons of information I have learned here. I consider myself an enthusiast and have no formal training or degree in atmospheric sciences. I do love to learn though. On to the subject at hand. I saw the same thing on the 12z GFS - I waited for the Euro and it is blah. We are 7.5 days out, so seems like a legit thing to watch. I'm guessing if the Euro picks up on it and the GFS keeps it in the next few runs...maybe we get to spin up a discussion thread. I sure hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Looks like the Euro, GFS, and Canadian ALL have the same piece of energy in the northern stream at day 5 (in the northwest or just north in western Canada). Models diverge shortly after as both the GFS and Canadian take that piece of energy southeast toward the gulf, spawning a low. The euro simply absorbs this energy into the vortex in the Pacific. If you want a storm that has to come southeast with the ridge building in behind it on the west coast.... This PNA isn't going to stay put, but even transient can be of assistance to the shortwave out ahead.... the models that bring it out (GFS and Canadian) differ with regards to how stout this ridge is. It's ideal with the GFS, nice and tall and helps the piece of energy dig well south and provides a classic snowstorm look. By comparison, the Canadian ridging out west isnt as stout and as a result the low develops much further north and the entire shield is yanked much further north wrt snowfall..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 2, 2017 Author Share Posted February 2, 2017 18Z GFS was closer to the Canadian but colder and it blows up on the I-40 corridor across most of the Valley except the far southern and sw portions. 6-9 inches across Nashville, Knoxville, Tri. 10-12 across the N. Plateau, 8-10 across S KY-SWVA. All inside 180. Trails the big lakes cutter so it can't cut north. Through 144 the UKIE and GFS align. Exact details are off right now, but the ridge in the west and confluence in the NE from the cutter sent the trailing wave across the Southern states. GFS/CMC/UKIE have similar outlooks currently. Euro not as much but a long time to watch it unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 2, 2017 Author Share Posted February 2, 2017 Also of note, February 7th-15th is climatologically a very favorable time for snow storms across the Valley region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 3 hours ago, tnweathernut said: Looks like the Euro, GFS, and Canadian ALL have the same piece of energy in the northern stream at day 5 (in the northwest or just north in western Canada). Models diverge shortly after as both the GFS and Canadian take that piece of energy southeast toward the gulf, spawning a low. The euro simply absorbs this energy into the vortex in the Pacific. If you want a storm that has to come southeast with the ridge building in behind it on the west coast.... This PNA isn't going to stay put, but even transient can be of assistance to the shortwave out ahead.... the models that bring it out (GFS and Canadian) differ with regards to how stout this ridge is. It's ideal with the GFS, nice and tall and helps the piece of energy dig well south and provides a classic snowstorm look. By comparison, the Canadian ridging out west isnt as stout and as a result the low develops much further north and the entire shield is yanked much further north wrt snowfall..... Certainly would like to see some ensemble support outside of 1 or 2 members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 17 minutes ago, BNAwx said: Certainly would like to see some ensemble support outside of 1 or 2 members. Yeah no doubt. It's a pretty low percentage opportunity. I was simply pointing out why it was on the 12z OP GFS/GEM and not the euro. Lots of moving parts. I'd be surprised to see the Euro swing and miss to this degree around day 6 (where the models diverge). It and all 51 members...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 2, 2017 Author Share Posted February 2, 2017 23 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Yeah no doubt. It's a pretty low percentage opportunity. I was simply pointing out why it was on the 12z OP GFS/GEM and not the euro. Lots of moving parts. I'd be surprised to see the Euro swing and miss to this degree around day 6 (where the models diverge). It and all 51 members...... While it may not happen, the Euro has been getting killed on Southern threats this year. In the tracking thread in the SE forum the Euro was 0-4 while the GFS was 3-1. This is from the SE thread on model handling of wintry threats this year in our part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 14 minutes ago, John1122 said: While it may not happen, the Euro has been getting killed on Southern threats this year. In the tracking thread in the SE forum the Euro was 0-4 while the GFS was 3-1. This is from the SE thread on model handling of wintry threats this year in our part of the country. Interesting, I guess it's all in the interpretation of a win vs. loss. My recollection of the early January storm was the Euro was the first to pick up on the potential threat and it pretty much kept it on and off from days 13 to 10, lost it for a time, then brought it back around day 8. I know many bashed it, but I just didn't see it that way. Maybe that's a Carolina centric view? What was your recollection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 3, 2017 Author Share Posted February 3, 2017 GFS isn't backing off yet with the trailing wave southern slider. It went back south a bit with its solution and paints most of the region again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 3, 2017 Author Share Posted February 3, 2017 It's actually almost a really far south and west Clipper/Miller B there. Snow isn't as heavy as earlier as it comes more from the northern stream. Still 2-5 inches pretty wide spread across the 40 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 06Z GFS lost it totally. Its still there in some form on four or five of the ensemble members. Certainly not a very strong signal at this point. I guess it still gives me a reason to check in on the models run to run, which is more than I can say for the last three or four weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Long Range Discussion..... Looks like less and less likely that the MJO will have a factor to override its influence as it passes through 5-7 based on model trends. It entered five today. Should be about a one(maybe a bit longer) week lag and then the center of the nation should warm and that expand eastward. Looks like it will take about a week and a half for the aforementioned phases to be crossed. So, just rough calculations show a pretty significant warm signal from roughly Feb 10 to almost the end of February. (The most recent SOI signal is 10.33.) Then things late month get interesting as many models take the the MJO into a decent amplitude phase 8. Now, some models such as the most recent BOMM and Canadian don't go there. The Euro and American models are in decent agreement that it does. The Euro has been pretty consistent in its recent MJO forecast as the American models were in error for skipping 5-7 in earlier runs. They have since corrected towards the Euro. The 6z GFS, GEFS...0z Euro and EPS are showing a pretty big signal for a warm-up sometime after the 10th. The MJO showed the current flip where the trough was moved out of the west. The problem is the new pattern, though substantially different, is not much better than the old. Until we see significant blocking, there is nothing to slow the pattern down enough for systems to dig. The weeklies have been reasonably consistent in depicting a very late Feb cold pattern into early March. Basically, looks like what could be the last window for many in the Valleys, and it may not be good enough for many as climo is working against winter wx for many of the southern areas of our forum. The MJO and Euro weeklies do look to be in sync and the Weeklies outcomes seemed reasonable. If one wanted to counter modeling, EPO, MJO, and QBO...the PNA and AO are forecast to be in favorable states. But really, does a resurgence of warmth surprise anyone as it has trumped the pattern for most of this winter in the East? I will contend that we are in a very spring-like pattern w cold being added from time to time. Feels like March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Follow the right graphs,not mid or left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Follow the right graphs,not mid or left Jax, tell me what you are seeing there. I can't read it. LOL. To small for my mid40s eyes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Just now, Carvers Gap said: Jax, tell me what you are seeing there. I can't read it. LOL. To small for my mid40s eyes... It's what there maps show as the surface temp anomalies,better pic http://www.organicforecasting.com/rrwt-for4.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: It's what there maps show as the surface temp anomalies,better pic http://www.organicforecasting.com/rrwt-for4.html Thanks, man. Link helped because I could zoom. I would agree w those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 3, 2017 Author Share Posted February 3, 2017 GFS lost the event this morning but is slowly building it back over western areas. Canadian has a full fledged storm but too far north for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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