Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Big cave by the GEFS on the MJO plot towards the steady Euro. The bad...it takes the tour through 5-7 and the MJO did very well w this current shake-up. The good...low amplitude and lasts about two weeks(ok...maybe that should not be in the good category...maybe meh) and does not camp out there. GEFS and Euro look to go to a strong-ish phase 8. There is a lag of bout a week. So warmth should appear shortly after the tenth unless blocking in the Atlantic overrides it which I doubt. Just speculating, but that would mean cold would return around Feb 25th. So, might mean we are in the game for early March. Also, to use a DT paraphrased term...we are looking at a model and speculating on an outcome. We are not making a forecast. Edit...I am unable to get the link for today to work. Phases 5-7 are higher amplitude for both the Euro and GFS and not in the COD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Probably have to punt early next week, looks like just rain. Despite a couple colder runs, really nothing ever had a good high press anchor north. February 10 time frame, give or take, looks like the next chance to get a cold snap through here. MJO might be a helper and we should have some western Canada ridging. Looks like the strato warming does not translate as the PV story fades, so it would be another short cold shot. All that said, the 500 mb charts look cold-ish toward Day 14-15. I look for another short cold wave and hopefully another chance of precip. at least northeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 One thing I find interesting this AM is a -AO and +PNA showing up on the CPC ensembles. That couplet of teleconnectors has not been seen often this winter. The forecast +EPO will attempt to mute that. The LR models are still unimpressive excluding the GEFS. However, some interesting blocking signals showing up. All of that said, unless something changes soon...when things finally line-up it might be Spring. The 12z Euro looked interesting late and the GEFS has a -NAO which is effectively muted by a strong +EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 29 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: CMC showing teens on the 9th with some snow Interesting but would like to see more than one model run say the same thing before I jump on the wagon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 12 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: Interesting but would like to see more than one model run say the same thing before I jump on the wagon! The 12Z GFS has a remarkably similar solution. But I don't think I'd be jumping on any wagons just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, Coach B said: The 12Z GFS has a remarkably similar solution. But I don't think I'd be jumping on any wagons just yet. Interesting - I was just getting in the mood for Spring too - we are going to be in a world of hurt if this pattern continues into Spring with the severe weather potential - but lets enjoy the tracking for now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 minute ago, flash43 said: At least there are bandwagons that could theoretically be jumped on. Granted I agree...it would be an ill-advised discretion at this point based on how this winter has turned out. Looking back at past climo, it seems even in the worst winters, the month of February gives us that predictable/hittable fastball down the middle. Will we strikeout, single, double...or hit it out of the ball remains to be seen. For now, I'm just relieved we're leaving the worst part of winter behind heading into a new month. #freshsetofdowns Agreed. Old-timers around here, myself included to a certain extent, I think because I lived through the extreme cold of January 1985, I more easily associate January with crazy cold and February with snow, so it is good that we are past the climatolgical heart of Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Posting ten day maps about a specific threat is cluttering the thread IMO. They most likely will be very wrong. Discussion and speculation is different. Discuss it all day long...but most assuredly that look is going to change very soon. Pattern maps are also a different story... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 If memory servers, it was two winters ago (2015) when we had very little winter up until the middle part of February, then all heck broke lose with bitter cold, ice and snow. It lasted for two good solid weeks. It made up for the rest of the winter being so boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 31, 2017 Author Share Posted January 31, 2017 I never trust models showing accumulating snow when a low is well north and cold is chasing it. It used to happen that way but it seems like it never does any more, at least it never amounts to more than a few snow showers or flurries on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 34 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Posting ten day maps about a specific threat is cluttering the thread IMO. They most likely will be very wrong. Discussion and speculation is different. Discuss it all day long...but most assuredly that look is going to change very soon. Pattern maps are also a different story... To me, for what it is worth, I think having a dozen different threads for "weather" is cumbersome at best. I like being able to go to the thread, scroll through, stop on what I want to read and be done. Much easier than trying click on half a dozen different threads to pick up something here or there that might be good to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 31, 2017 Author Share Posted January 31, 2017 Lots of energy out in the Pacific, some cold and possible PV displacement into SE Canada. A bit of blocking in the Atlantic possible and an MJO that favors a tall Rockies ridge. There are possibilities in the upcoming pattern. We may not cash in on a single one and we may do a lot of flipping between a few cold days and a few warm days. Just have to hope for the best. I'm at 3.75 inches of snow on the season. That's around 2 inches below the worst winter ever here. So we're either going into new territory or something will work out over the next 45 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 28 minutes ago, John1122 said: Lots of energy out in the Pacific, some cold and possible PV displacement into SE Canada. A bit of blocking in the Atlantic possible and an MJO that favors a tall Rockies ridge. There are possibilities in the upcoming pattern. We may not cash in on a single one and we may do a lot of flipping between a few cold days and a few warm days. Just have to hope for the best. I'm at 3.75 inches of snow on the season. That's around 2 inches below the worst winter ever here. So we're either going into new territory or something will work out over the next 45 days or so. Are you thinking that we have 7-10 more days before it drops out of favorable territory due to the lag? May have gone in the COD today. Its forecast does not look good for winter weather as it is increasing in amplitude(past few days) for phases 5-7 to the point where it will have considerable impact provided we don't get blocking over the top. Now, it does get to phase eight eventually and may help us later this month. Also, does it have less or more impact as we move into late winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 hour ago, John1122 said: Lots of energy out in the Pacific, some cold and possible PV displacement into SE Canada. A bit of blocking in the Atlantic possible and an MJO that favors a tall Rockies ridge. There are possibilities in the upcoming pattern. We may not cash in on a single one and we may do a lot of flipping between a few cold days and a few warm days. Just have to hope for the best. I'm at 3.75 inches of snow on the season. That's around 2 inches below the worst winter ever here. So we're either going into new territory or something will work out over the next 45 days or so. I like our chances going forward looks like we are headed the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 The 12z EPS and GEPS are about as bad as one could draw-up for the lower 48 in the LR. The fly in the ointment which is preventing an absolute route of a bad pattern is the -NAO and -AO showing up. The massively positive EPO is cancelling those features out. I am not going to lie, that is one ugly pattern if you like winter. The one plus is sometimes when the AO and NAO are forecast to go negative...it takes the models a few days to recognize that. I can remember some years, where the teleconnections get aligned and then flip. But right now w the MJO heading into the tour, an upcoming ++EPO, and the QBO very positive...tough to see this pattern hitting unless we are very fortunate. The southern areas are now counting down winter as the end of Feb is the end of decent for them. NE TN valleys have until mid-March. Out of the next six weeks, I would guess three will be very warm. One last positive in a sea of warmth, the LR models do show some BN heights along the EC. Let's see if the -AO/-NAO can pull a rabbit out of the hat. MJO phase 8 will be winter's last gasp later in Feb. Take any and I mean any snow and enjoy it if you get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Are you thinking that we have 7-10 more days before it drops out of favorable territory due to the lag? May have gone in the COD today. Its forecast does not look good for winter weather as it is increasing in amplitude(past few days) for phases 5-7 to the point where it will have considerable impact provided we don't get blocking over the top. Now, it does get to phase eight eventually and may help us later this month. Also, does it have less or more impact as we move into late winter? Phase 8 in February is a Rocky Mountain ridge/eastern trough set up that does well for cold in the East. As we go later that could still not mean wintry weather. But it favors cold. Right now we have it, possible Atlantic blocking and even western ridging possibly helping out. On the negative side that big Alaska vortex will push pacific air into the continent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 17 minutes ago, John1122 said: Phase 8 in February is a Rocky Mountain ridge/eastern trough set up that does well for cold in the East. As we go later that could still not mean wintry weather. But it favors cold. Right now we have it, possible Atlantic blocking and even western ridging possibly helping out. On the negative side that big Alaska vortex will push pacific air into the continent. Thanks. That fits what I am looking at. Still a ways to go. There are a few hints on the GEFS that the AK block is less than permanent. Might be a case where the -NAO forms and holds on long enough to turn it loose later in the month. Does not look like a warm early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 Euro has a rainer southern slider on the 00z run. Need the LP 125-150 miles south and the 850 line 125-150 south and we'd be in big business. The EPS looks a little better than the OP at the same time frame. Trough is a little deeper. 850s are colder further south. EPS also agrees with the LP field being centered somewhere in the SE to the South of the Valley region. Center of that lowest height field to the south and east of us would be a pretty good Miller A track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 2 hours ago, John1122 said: Euro has a rainer southern slider on the 00z run. Need the LP 125-150 miles south and the 850 line 125-150 south and we'd be in big business. The EPS looks a little better than the OP at the same time frame. Trough is a little deeper. 850s are colder further south. EPS also agrees with the LP field being centered somewhere in the SE to the South of the Valley region. Center of that lowest height field to the south and east of us would be a pretty good Miller A track. Looks interesting, thanks for posting, though I know a little about the weather, I really do not know how to get those maps and stuff! Here's hoping it changes in our favor, either way, the rain will be appreciated, thinking of the months of August, September and October that are usually pretty dry around here. Anything we can do now to build up the water table, I am all for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 51 minutes ago, flash43 said: Correct me if I'm wrong, but winter 2010-11 was a classic example of a -NAO overwhelming other unfavorable teleconnections, right? I remember winter outlooks not looking good fall 2010, but December 2010 - mid February, many of us cashed in on the -NAO/-AO. Broadening out, December 2010 - May 2011 has to be one of most intense 6-month weather stretches of the century. Was that the Winter that allot of the snow systems went south of the Middle TN area? Areas like Chattanooga, Huntsville, Birmingham and Atlanta got the all because of the intense -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 16 minutes ago, flash43 said: Williamson County fared well in 2010-11 with double-digit snow totals that winter though you're right in the sense the bullseye totals were south of us. The worst winter by far for Nashville was 2013-14. Many of you smile upon that one, but that was the year of the snowdome for us. http://deepfryedmind.blogspot.com/2014/02/2013-14-winter-retrospective-year-of.html Wasn't 10-11 the year the bowling ball came through.I seem to remember this as i was living in Lawrence Co. back then.We got nothing but rain but as you went towards Mt.Pleasant more northward the sn totals ramped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 hour ago, flash43 said: Correct me if I'm wrong, but winter 2010-11 was a classic example of a -NAO overwhelming other unfavorable teleconnections, right? I remember winter outlooks not looking good fall 2010, but December 2010 - mid February, many of us cashed in on the -NAO/-AO. Broadening out, December 2010 - May 2011 has to be one of most intense 6-month weather stretches of the century. I will have to check. The strongly positive EPO coupled w a -NAO can make it warm here. I have to admit that I am losing interest in this winter at a rapid rate. Ha! You know the 6z GEFS hints at the -NAO winning. CPC has a very strong +PNA and a very strong -AO. The NAO is moving from positive to neatral. Without looking at the map, I would say that is a good sign. But for whatever reason, the models are not responding. And we have seen models erroneously predict the -NAO this winter. We had one decent blocking event in Jan. So, I will have to see it to believe it. Now, I have not delved into the models as much today. I did notice the QBO had just flipped to positive during the 10-11 winter. It is way overdue to flip negative now. Now, the MJO continues to go into higher amplitude phases 5-7...it initially looked to be modeled near the COD a few days ago. The trade off is phase 8 should be at a higher amplitude. So, it appear later this month that there is a nice window, but there are many things(Spring) beginning to make winter wx more difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Just now, flash43 said: Seems like the EPO is at least decreasing heading towards mid-month. By mid-Feb, the strongest teleconnection appears to be the +PNA so maybe we'll get lucky if we have a smidge of Atlantic blocking (not holding my breath). While I'm curious where the MJO will actually be in two weeks, bottom line: it seems we are at least teetering on something workable though the more definite takeaway is: if we smell this type of pattern in future winters, we'll have a much better corporate understanding of what trumps what in terms of teleconnection precedence. Atmospherically speaking, this thread is basically this clip... Agree that is the general look I am seeing in the LR...And for those reading the thread, this is just model speculation...not a forecast. I think sometime after the 20th we get another window. It could move up or be pushed back a few days. Lots of orange and red on those 2m maps after Feb 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Agree that is the general look I am seeing in the LR...And for those reading the thread, this is just model speculation...not a forecast. I think sometime after the 20th we get another window. It could move up or be pushed back a few days. Lots of orange and red on those 2m maps after Feb 10th. Yea, kind of got the speculation part, thanks for the clarification though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 23 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Posting ten day maps about a specific threat is cluttering the thread IMO. They most likely will be very wrong. Discussion and speculation is different. Discuss it all day long...but most assuredly that look is going to change very soon. Pattern maps are also a different story... Just to reinforce this....there is no magic time barrier but some where out there in that 8+ day range where there is no consensus and you are posting just to post it.... OTOH, If you are new and afraid to post your opinion...don't be. Post the map with the snow and say why you think it is a possibility other than the model shows it. You don't have to be elegant or know all the fancy terms....We are all wrong at one point or another and we all miss things. Plus, it helps foment conversation which can prompt new ideas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 The Cansips has the forum area at +.5 to +1 C for Feb. It has been very accurate w its warm look for DJF. It has a PNA ridge w no blocking in the Atlantic. That to me represents intermittent shots of cold that don't hold. We really need some blocking to slow things down...MA forum thought and not mine. Still true nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 38 minutes ago, Mr Bob said: Just to reinforce this....there is no magic time barrier but some where out there in that 8+ day range where there is no consensus and you are posting just to post it.... OTOH, If you are new and afraid to post your opinion...don't be. Post the map with the snow and say why you think it is a possibility other than the model shows it. You don't have to be elegant or know all the fancy terms....We are all wrong at one point or another and we all miss things. Plus, it helps foment conversation which can prompt new ideas.... +1.... I say it all the time...this is a great place to test ideas. Nobody is learning if they are not making mistakes per the great John Wooden. For me it is more about figuring things out and understanding how things work. I think many of us who have been here a while try to uphold the tradition of not posting d10+ maps unless they have some value such as illustrating where a pattern could go, maybe the clown map is just ridiculous, etc... All of us break the unsaid rule from time to time. So, I am not innocent of this either. But if d10 maps are posted for every model suite, it gums up the works a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 GFES has a few days above normal, a few below, a few above again, then near to slightly below normal for the last 5-6 days of the 16 day. The end of the run is very nice at 500. The +PNA with the good Atlantic should be very good for here. Canada isn't super Arctic but is cold enough that it would send down air easily cold enough to work with. We don't need it to be 10 degrees to have a nice event, we need it to be 25-34 roughly as a rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 John, was just looking at the GEFS...That is a great look w the PNA ridge bridging over to Greenland. If true, that will slow things down near the EC. And yes, that is how to post a 384 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 That look begins to show up @d12. So, much closer than d16. Those heights over Greenland are a great sign. That is how to override a lousy MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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