Daniel Boone Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 3 hours ago, Mrwolf1972 said: its trying to come back to us just still little to far north with the warm nose verbatim, thats a snow to rain to snow depiction. however, if enough cold can stay in place, especially with lp placemants and strength there, could be mostly snoe at least northern valley areas , especially if very little winds are realized. ie; very little downsloping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2017 Author Share Posted January 28, 2017 The Euro is suppressed, weaker and colder. Basically right where you want it to be. EPS is cold and stormy. Euro Control is a major snow storm. GFS is the current northern edge of guidance. Basically all solutions are on the table at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 3:58 PM, John1122 said: The Euro is suppressed, weaker and colder. Basically right where you want it to be. EPS is cold and stormy. Euro Control is a major snow storm. GFS is the current northern edge of guidance. Basically all solutions are on the table at this point. Bout all we can ask for at this range. There is a decent pattern that supports confluence near our area. This may be a situation where we track multiple events within a ten day period. (Edit: not days 1-10...more like 8-18.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Next winter a few of the seasonal models are showing a Nino Modoki into fall maybe into winter.Would be better than this dumpster winter anyways,this is the BOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 28 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Next winter a few of the seasonal models are showing a Nino Modoki into fall maybe into winter.Would be better than this dumpster winter anyways,this is the BOM. Yep. I am actually pretty optimistic about next winter. Solar min and maybe a QBO flip also. IMO the QBO staying very positive has just overridden the entire current seasonal pattern. It has inhibited blocking in the Atlantic. Other than some late optimism due to a weak Nina, I am not sure anyone was ever fired-up about this current winter. The best I felt this winter could achieve was normal climo. Temps will be above. Snow prob below to much below for much of the forum area. But next winter (other than John's noted concern of coupled bad winters) seems to have fewer red flags. I am even optimistic this upcoming summer will be normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Yep. I am actually pretty optimistic about next winter. Solar min and maybe a QBO flip also. IMO the QBO staying very positive has just overridden the entire pattern. It has inhibited blocking in the Atlantic. Other than some late optimism due to a weak Nina, I am not sure anyone was ever fired-up about this current winter. The best I felt this winter could achieve was normal climo. Temps will be above. Snow prob below to much below for much of the forum area. But next winter (other than John's noted concern of coupled bad winters) seems to have fewer red flags. I am actually optimistic this upcoming summer will be normal. Yeppers,the QBO broke records dated back from 1948 for Nov and Dec,all time high in Dec for any time dated back then, +15.09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 I'll take that record breaking back.1999 spring was just as brutal and even higher with the QBO https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 But Nov and Dec of 2016 are record months still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 When you look at the control run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 54 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: When you look at the control run So you are saying there is a chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 9 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: So you are saying there is a chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 12 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Yep. I am actually pretty optimistic about next winter. Solar min and maybe a QBO flip also. IMO the QBO staying very positive has just overridden the entire current seasonal pattern. It has inhibited blocking in the Atlantic. Other than some late optimism due to a weak Nina, I am not sure anyone was ever fired-up about this current winter. The best I felt this winter could achieve was normal climo. Temps will be above. Snow prob below to much below for much of the forum area. But next winter (other than John's noted concern of coupled bad winters) seems to have fewer red flags. I am even optimistic this upcoming summer will be normal. Eventually, it is simply down to statistics right? Eventually we will have a Winter that produces. For me, after this cold snap with near average temps, I believe I am ready to start looking at the possibilities for next season. How soon can we open a thread?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 hour ago, weathertree4u said: Eventually, it is simply down to statistics right? Eventually we will have a Winter that produces. For me, after this cold snap with near average temps, I believe I am ready to start looking at the possibilities for next season. How soon can we open a thread?! Statistically, we have been due a real dud in the eastern Valley. As for good winters, we have had several decent ones at TRI recently. Nashville did well last winter. It is not like we have been on a bad pay streak. Again, I am not sure we should be surprised fhe cold went into the West w Nina conditions. The AMO on a macro-scale is also a big driver as it limits blocking. Until it flips, cold winters will be difficult to come by. It has not been in a favorable state for many years if I remember correctly. Might still be several years before it flips. The oceans will drive the pattern w maybe some solar min included. The MJO did correctly predict the temps drop we are currently having(maybe duration as well). I also believe it will correctly predict the upcoming warm-up(maybe very warm) and return to cold after that. But still, I think we can thank the QBO for our warm winter along w the Nina and left over super Nino heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Statistically, we have been due a real dud in the eastern Valley. As for good winters, we have had several decent ones at TRI recently. Nashville did well last winter. It is not like we have been on a bad pay streak. Again, I am not sure we should be surprised fhe cold went into the West w Nina conditions. The AMO on a macro-scale is also a big driver as it limits blocking. Until it flips, cold winters will be difficult to come by. It has not been in a favorable state for many years if I remember correctly. Might still be several years before it flips. The oceans will drive the pattern w maybe some solar min included. The MJO did correctly predict the temps drop we are currently having(maybe duration as well). I also believe it will correctly predict the upcoming warm-up(maybe very warm) and return to cold after that. But still, I think we can thank the QBO for our warm winter along w the Nina and left over super Nino heat. Guess should not complain but when I say a Winter that produces, I mean Winter like I recall from childhood. I grew up in the 70's so I was spoiled I guess when we had the three good seasons back to back and a couple good ones in the 1980's. Not sure that you could say Nashville had a good season last year, technically, we had one good storm, which, with the current averages put us above normal for the season. Guess I have been drinking the cool-aide too long that JB sells and am expecting cold when there really isnt any! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 hour ago, weathertree4u said: Guess should not complain but when I say a Winter that produces, I mean Winter like I recall from childhood. I grew up in the 70's so I was spoiled I guess when we had the three good seasons back to back and a couple good ones in the 1980's. Not sure that you could say Nashville had a good season last year, technically, we had one good storm, which, with the current averages put us above normal for the season. Guess I have been drinking the cool-aide too long that JB sells and am expecting cold when there really isnt any! Hey, I grew up during the 70s as well. Cool. I am forever ruined on what I expect from winter. I thought that was normal winter. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Hey, I grew up during the 70s as well. Cool. I am forever ruined on what I expect from winter. I thought that was normal winter. LOL. Eventually, we should both see those winters again, I hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 18 gfs has multiple systems 6-10th some look promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 29, 2017 Author Share Posted January 29, 2017 Everything is so close on the GFS. One of the systems was a mirror image of the one that happened early in January. A late bloomer that misses most of our area except far eastern portions and hammers central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 hour ago, John1122 said: Everything is so close on the GFS. One of the systems was a mirror image of the one that happened early in January. A late bloomer that misses most of our area except far eastern portions and hammers central NC. I know, I cannot believe that we could get missed twice in a season. That is not right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Hoping the models catch on to something in the day 6-10 range for us to discuss once the clipper discussion ends. The NAM really regained a little more respect from this event. Let's see if the GFS shows any consistency for a decent event occurring in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 30, 2017 Author Share Posted January 30, 2017 00z GFS looks like a perfect track miller A but it turns into an Apps bomb. Doesn't give east Valley nearly as much snow as it would actually get with a rapidly deepening low tracking from around North Florida to Western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 30, 2017 Author Share Posted January 30, 2017 Unlikely solution, but we'd gave NE winds here, surface temps are in the 30s, and there's bands of sub 32 850s across Tennessee at this frame. I think we'd be getting plastered with heavy, wet snow. It switches to snow by the next panel as the LP is between Asheville and Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 I see a minor event for areas above 1500ft on Thursday. Then next Sunday another major system will take hold it is shown to be rain but with a week out it has some potential to be a winter storm depending on where the low tracks. A little later on into the run another system appears as john mentioned above which starts primarily as rain and ends with a little snow at the end it also has potential to be a winter storm. Finally about 2 weeks out the run ends with a train of weak clippers affecting our forum to some extent I believe. I see a lot of projected missed opportunity for something major to occur and with such a large margin of error, a winter storm next week is a possibility on the table as of now. Although I wouldn't get my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 BSR Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 30, 2017 Author Share Posted January 30, 2017 Couldn't ask for a better track than the 06z for an Eastern Valley major winter storm......but there's no cold air to be found. It looks like most of the country is on fire the map is so red. It's raining in North Dakota in the heart of winter it's so warm on the GFS. We go full furnace for a while, the cold pretty much concentrates from Central Canada NW to Alaska and refuses to budge until day 14 or so. Alaska is rolling -40 to -50 across the entire state except a few places a couple miles from the coast. This is as warm a map as you'll ever witness for early February. The entire state of Montana, Idaho, and Washington are show to be above freezing essentially. It's showing 8000-12000 foot peaks as above freezing in February. Only Rocky Mountain locations above 10,000 feet are below freezing on this frame. The entire state of Maine is also 32 or above. Normally if the west was that warm, we'd be cold. There's even a huge trough in the East at 500mb but the cold refuses to budge from Canada. Looks like a mid-October map after the first cool shot or a mid May one with a late cool shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 hour ago, John1122 said: Couldn't ask for a better track than the 06z for an Eastern Valley major winter storm......but there's no cold air to be found. It looks like most of the country is on fire the map is so red. It's raining in North Dakota in the heart of winter it's so warm on the GFS. We go full furnace for a while, the cold pretty much concentrates from Central Canada NW to Alaska and refuses to budge until day 14 or so. Alaska is rolling -40 to -50 across the entire state except a few places a couple miles from the coast. This is as warm a map as you'll ever witness for early February. The entire state of Montana, Idaho, and Washington are show to be above freezing essentially. It's showing 8000-12000 foot peaks as above freezing in February. Only Rocky Mountain locations above 10,000 feet are below freezing on this frame. The entire state of Maine is also 32 or above. Normally if the west was that warm, we'd be cold. There's even a huge trough in the East at 500mb but the cold refuses to budge from Canada. Looks like a mid-October map after the first cool shot or a mid May one with a late cool shot. The fishy like flip flopping will likely continue with the models. I know the local weather personalities in the Nashville area should be run out of town on a rail. All of them this morning are getting the word out on the warm up. While it is likely to warm up, it has not been cold, it has been near normal! This is why people have such a hard time gauging appropriately any weather situation, whether it be Winter related or not, because of the sensationalism that is attached to everything! Activity like this adds to the reason why there is a run on stores when there is actually a storm to take seriously. Though we have gotten good snows in February and sometimes March, I really am not seeing anything to go against persistence for this season, that is, the pattern seems to have already locked in, sure, around here we may get a few days of normal, but I do not see anything that really stands out as that would create a different situation. As stated earlier, and in agreement with you, I am happy for the rain, although, with that, in the Middle TN area, we are fast catching up the water table! Stepping off my soap box now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Major warming? Stratospheric Warming The Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) is a phenomenon characterized by a rapid increase in polar temperatures in the stratosphere. The temperature increases more than a few dozen degrees in a few days in the boreal winter. In some cases the westerly polar night jet disappears and easterly winds appear during the warming. JMA is monitoring SSWs as one of the Regional Warming Centers. The warming is called a "Minor Warming", when the polar temperature increases more than 25 degrees in a period of a week or less at any stratospheric level. If the zonal mean temperature increases poleward from 60 degrees latitude and the net zonal mean zonal winds become easterly at 60 degrees latitude at 10 hPa (32 km) or below, it is classified as a "Major Warming". The SSW was discovered in 1952 by Scherhag (1952), but it took some time before the mechanism was theoretically identified by Matsuno (1971). The SSW is caused by a rapid amplification of planetary waves propagating upward from the troposphere. Planetary waves deposit westward momentum and create a strong meridional circulation which produces a large warming in the polar stratosphere due to adiabatic heating (e.g., McIntyre 1982). GFS 6z shows a split,first time though,with no support from any other model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 16 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Major warming? Stratospheric Warming The Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) is a phenomenon characterized by a rapid increase in polar temperatures in the stratosphere. The temperature increases more than a few dozen degrees in a few days in the boreal winter. In some cases the westerly polar night jet disappears and easterly winds appear during the warming. JMA is monitoring SSWs as one of the Regional Warming Centers. The warming is called a "Minor Warming", when the polar temperature increases more than 25 degrees in a period of a week or less at any stratospheric level. If the zonal mean temperature increases poleward from 60 degrees latitude and the net zonal mean zonal winds become easterly at 60 degrees latitude at 10 hPa (32 km) or below, it is classified as a "Major Warming". The SSW was discovered in 1952 by Scherhag (1952), but it took some time before the mechanism was theoretically identified by Matsuno (1971). The SSW is caused by a rapid amplification of planetary waves propagating upward from the troposphere. Planetary waves deposit westward momentum and create a strong meridional circulation which produces a large warming in the polar stratosphere due to adiabatic heating (e.g., McIntyre 1982). GFS 6z shows a split,first time though,with no support from any other model Still learning but I hope this warming does not me spring is going to be cold rains! I am ready for some spring wx. Give me some nice thunderstorms to sleep to. I do not believe in global warming but these latest winters give me pause. Winters just stink here in mid-TN anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 The time period around January 7-10th is mildly interesting on the 12z GFS. This is a look that could produce, though it's important to note the 0z Euro and GEM look completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 30, 2017 Author Share Posted January 30, 2017 The 12z looked much better than 06z. Cold air was around that run and the storm was suppressed SE of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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