BlunderStorm Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 4 more inches of the white stuff and I will consider this winter not a bust! Sitting pretty up here with 6 inches thus far for the season. 19 inches being the average. The GFS unsurprisingly has backed off over the past 2 runs on the clipper/NW flow snow parade to no surprise. Those double digit kuchera totals are too good to be true imo. To be fair though I am still impressed with what I'm seeing even now after experiencing our little 2 week torchfest. I can only however look at the projections skeptically even as they march ever so closer. On the brighter side of equation (not to beat a dead horse) there certainly has been plenty of rain. In my case the drought has been entirely erased and southern areas of our sub-forum are improving as well. Local streams are looking better then they have for the last 6 months! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 At least we have one model that shows some glimmer of hope...AKA..Control.First real fantasy storm of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 52 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: But winter is not over yet...and that weak Nina climo may yet show itself. Five weeks left of prime winter week climo. If I have learned anything on this forum, it is to never rule anything out... It's true, but it just has that feeling like it's not quite going to get there this year. I seriously hope I'm wrong. At this point if I can land 2 inches from clippers over the weekend I'll be happy and then take it from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 12 minutes ago, John1122 said: It's true, but it just has that feeling like it's not quite going to get there this year. I seriously hope I'm wrong. At this point if I can land 2 inches from clippers over the weekend I'll be happy and then take it from there. Yeah, I agree. Not had many good windows so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 15 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: I noted the possibility just a few posts ago. The Euro is at odds w itself on the weeklies. Dacula Wx shows it is barely out of the COD which implies it has weak influence in those stages. Now, my observations is that even weak amplitude has not been a good thing this winter. I have not seen any model that keeps it there very long. The EMON does not take the tour. The Euro takes the quick, low amplitude tour. It may indeed blowtorch some in Feb as that has been the default for about two weeks, but a bit premature to write-off off Feb(edit...you noted mid month to clarify) based on model that is at odds with itself IMO. Again as noted just a few posts ago, the Euro MJO plot is not a good sign. Are we expecting BN heights in the far western Pacific for an extended period? Also, would you mind sharing the MJO chart or a link to it? I use this site.Not sure if you use or not but it gives the high frequency and the low (C.O.D) for each phase on it's anomalies,though 7-8 don't change http://www.frontierweather.com/mjoanalogs.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Here's another http://monitor.cicsnc.org/pub/mjo/v2/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 00z GFS is back to decent snows from the clipper. The Euro leaned it's way earlier and the gem has been getting better too. Hopefully a good portion of us at least get 1-3 total out of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 25 minutes ago, John1122 said: 00z GFS is back to decent snows from the clipper. The Euro leaned it's way earlier and the gem has been getting better too. Hopefully a good portion of us at least get 1-3 total out of them. I hope we can squeeze an inch here.Disco from BNA says under an inch right now,either way i'll be happy to see some snow.But i've seen clippers before being shown here before and it's been total "fail" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: I hope we can squeeze an inch here.Disco from BNA says under an inch right now,either way i'll be happy to see some snow.But i've seen clippers before being shown here before and it's been total "fail" They are a crapshoot. All about the angle of the trough. If they can dig down west it can get the eastern 2/3rds of the Valley with decent snows. Sometimes they stay too far north and border areas in the East get some snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 Wow, the GFS and GEFS are hugely different at 500mb and the surface in the long range. GEFS has us AN maybe 2-3 days over the next 16 days. GFS is between warm and a torch for almost the entire period after day 5. GEFS has a nice trough that is fairly persistent and quickly reloads when it does retreat. GFS has a ridge covering the entire southern half of the country at the this time. GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 Canada is just wickedly cold on both the GFS and the ENS. So there's a ton of cold air in NA. It just doesn't want to sink, especially on the GFS with the odd coast to coast ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 hour ago, John1122 said: Canada is just wickedly cold on both the GFS and the ENS. So there's a ton of cold air in NA. It just doesn't want to sink, especially on the GFS with the odd coast to coast ridge. Something is different on the 06Z of the GFS, me, I just notice the cold and snow, but others of you will be able to tell what it is about this run that is different in the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Tricky forecast past d10. If this is indeed a reshuffle, going to be plenty varying solutions. I will say the last 24 hours of operationals and ensembles have not been as encouraging post d10. But the models are all over the place right now. Need to watch the block in AK...if we lose that...that is an obvious problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 8 hours ago, John1122 said: Wow, the GFS and GEFS are hugely different at 500mb and the surface in the long range. GEFS has us AN maybe 2-3 days over the next 16 days. GFS is between warm and a torch for almost the entire period after day 5. GEFS has a nice trough that is fairly persistent and quickly reloads when it does retreat. GFS has a ridge covering the entire southern half of the country at the this time. GEFS Looks like 12z will again have some big disparity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Looks like 12z will again have some big disparity. Yep, the 12z GEFS is really a thing of beauty. Stable ridging west coast, stable trough in the east after a brief ridge at 500 somewhere in the middle. Neutral to slightly negative NAO and no sign of a SE ridge. Where do I sign up? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 19 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Yep, the 12z GEFS is really a thing of beauty. Stable ridging west coast, stable trough in the east after a brief ridge at 500 somewhere in the middle. Neutral to slightly negative NAO and no sign of a SE ridge. Where do I sign up? lol I am not sure I have seen (prob have and just have forgotten) such a mediocre run of the operational look so different from its ensemble. I suppose that means the op has little support. Yet, sometimes I have seen the op lead the way. Very wary at this point. The op lost all blocking on its run. The disparity gets even worse after the timeframe shown below. I am just using the lower 48 view to highlight the difference, but the global 500 pattern is even more opposite between the two. Big differences (John highlighted many of those earlier) over the top and in the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Though, they are not that dissimilar at the surface.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 The sixteen day snow ensemble for the GEFS has a decent signal w several individual members hitting the forum area. Feel free to post if one of you has it...I am out of memory. (Seriously, it is a pain to get more memory because I have to delete pics from past storm threads. Those are a great resource.). I am just linking to pics now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 These last two weeks in Nashville have been #1 in max and min temps #poopwinter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Jax, you got a link to that? Interesting info. So the last two weeks in Nashville is comparable to normal deep winter weather in New Orleans. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 John, remind me what happens when the AK block connects with AN heights in Siberia. D10 on the Euro is sliding the trough through the west. Looks like it is about to produce a strong PNA ridge. Also, large area of very low heights from Japan eastward under ths block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 25 minutes ago, Coach B said: Jax, you got a link to that? Interesting info. So the last two weeks in Nashville is comparable to normal deep winter weather in New Orleans. lol http://www.sercc.com/perspectives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 12z Euo looks poised to send a pretty good shot of cold into NA w the way the AK block is aligned at d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: John, remind me what happens when the AK block connects with AN heights in Siberia. D10 on the Euro is sliding the trough through the west. Looks like it is about to produce a strong PNA ridge. Also, large area of very low heights from Japan eastward under ths block. Siberian/Alaskan/PNA ridging is what set up the massive arctic outbreak in 1989. That collapsed with lower heights there in January 1990 and we went warm. This is what was reflected at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 14 minutes ago, John1122 said: Siberian/Alaskan/PNA ridging is what set up the massive arctic outbreak in 1989. That collapsed with lower heights there in January 1990 and we went warm. This is what was reflected at the surface. I know it is d10, but that is pretty similar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Similar as in... The trough slides east and the PNA gets pumped. It connects to the AK block which is connected to Siberia. Even on d9 you can see the cold headed over the pole at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Similar as in... The trough slides east and the PNA gets pumped. It connects to the AK block which is connected to Siberia. Even on d9 you can see the cold headed over the pole at 850. It would be a very similar look if everything in the Pacific progresses a few hundred miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Very good look at 500 on the 12z EPS control and mean. The mean reestablishes a broad NA trough at d12. Ridge rolls through from d8-12. It is not perfect, but workable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 minute ago, John1122 said: It would be a very similar look if everything in the Pacific progresses a few hundred miles east. That is the way it was headed when I looped it...that is what caught my eye. The control has -21C 850 departures heading southeast and approaching the northern Plains at d15 FWIW at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Way out there and subject to change, but this has been a pretty consistent look w variations of it on recent runs of the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.