Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 6 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Was going to post this in the severe thread but since this is the upcoming pattern possibly, i'll put it here.The Euro is showing the MJO getting into 4,5,6 coming up.Six is a blow torch in Feb.I was looking at the #RRWT on the Organic forecasting site and they are also showing a big warm around mid month,this would fit in with upcoming MJO the Euro is showing.Also during this time we come into a wetter pattern when the MJO gets into 5,especially 6 & 7.So we should start to see a more active East Asia coming up shortly if all this falls in place. I noted the possibility just a few posts ago. The Euro is at odds w itself on the weeklies. Dacula Wx shows it is barely out of the COD which implies it has weak influence in those stages. Now, my observations is that even weak amplitude has not been a good thing this winter. I have not seen any model that keeps it there very long. The EMON does not take the tour. The Euro takes the quick, low amplitude tour. It may indeed blowtorch some in Feb as that has been the default for about two weeks, but a bit premature to write-off off Feb(edit...you noted mid month to clarify) based on model that is at odds with itself IMO. Again as noted just a few posts ago, the Euro MJO plot is not a good sign. Are we expecting BN heights in the far western Pacific for an extended period? Also, would you mind sharing the MJO chart or a link to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Here is the latest Euro on Dacula Wx. Here is a composite of thr major models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: I noted the possibility just a few posts ago. The Euro is at odds w itself on the weeklies. Dacula Wx shows it is barely out of the COD which implies it has weak influence in those stages. Now, my observations is that even weak amplitude has not been a good thing this winter. I have not seen any model that keeps it there very long. The EMON does not take the tour. The Euro takes the quick, low amplitude tour. It may indeed blowtorch some in Feb as that has been the default for about two weeks, but a bit premature to write-off off Feb(edit...you noted mid month to clarify) based on model that is at odds with itself IMO. Again as noted just a few posts ago, the Euro MJO plot is not a good sign. Are we expecting BN heights in the far western Pacific for an extended period? Also, would you mind sharing the MJO chart or a link to it? Yeah,i didn't write off Feb. or winter by all means,winter don't end for 2 months,met for 5 wks or so,just showing some change of the pattern upcoming.Like you mentioned,the MJO signals weaken in the upcoming days.Pic of the CHI shows changes coming up,what was more divergence is looking more of a wetter pattern upcoming,just need some cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Yeah,i didn't write off Feb. or winter by all means,winter don't end for 2 months,met for 5 wks or so,just showing some change of the pattern upcoming.Like you mentioned,the MJO signals weaken in the upcoming days.Pic of the CHI shows changes coming up,what was more divergence is looking more of a wetter pattern upcoming,just need some cold But yeah, the Euro MJO gives me pause...the weeklies are in direct conflict w/ MJO found on the Euro. And even weak reflections in the COD have had some verification in our weather pattern. If it goes there, I just hope it hurries through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 For verification purposes when I go back and look at this thread later....Here is the duration of the torch @TRI - thirteen days. IMO, today effectively ends the torch(some might count tomorrow). It is currently 42 degrees w/ drizzle and highs forecast in the upper 40s to near 50. Tomorrow will jump back to the low 60s w/ Thursday temps dropping into the low 40s for highs followed by several days w highs in the mid to upper 30s in NE TN. The torch lasted 13 days to this point. It will most likely be enough to swing the entire winter warm. We will see if it reverts back to this warm state. Given that this winter has had wild swings, probably so. What will be interesting is if we actually have more winter weather from this point forward. For a month that will be a top five month in temps, it still snowed 3.7". What a great month so far in terms of precip...not so much in amounts but in the fact that it was consistent. The North Fork of the Holston is roaring this morning and is near the top of the jetty that separates it and the South Fork where they join to merge as the Holston. Just eight weeks ago I can remember seeing bare rocks that I cannot remember seeing before due to the river being so low. I did not even fish in the mountains this past fall due to water being at those levels and the stress to released fish it would cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 JB says this over and over again...mainly when he busts on a forecast. It can snow during a warm pattern. I am still not completely buying the return to winter over the long haul... PSU has some great analysis this morning in the MA forum regarding "how" different drivers could produce different scenarios. These two links provide good, sound scientific explanations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 53 minutes ago, flash43 said: I returned to a 2015-16 winter weather recap vid I made last March this morning to gather some compare & contrast perspective Thanks for posting, I will watch it in its entirety when I have some down time. I was happy the mid state scored (especially the northern 1/3) since I grew up in Gallatin. That storm was a fun one to see pictures and get texts from family members and friends all over the mid-state. I wonder if a new thread would be appropriate for something like this. Would be neat to archive this and be able to search for this all on its own. Also, as the forum grows, more videos like this would be good to go be able to find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 hour ago, flash43 said: I returned to a 2015-16 winter weather recap vid I made last March this morning to gather some compare & contrast perspective (Warning: the audio & intro quality suck big time; have improved the tech upgrades since). For this winter, obviously the dramatic decline in warm SST's in the northeast Pacific was a tide-turner. I'm like DT (see his new vid posted this morning) in the sense I had no idea how sharp that decline would be though I did see it as a yellow flag back in October. Still it's interesting to note some similar features between this winter and last...including the occasional undercutting southern jet (which has shown up more on mid/long range modeling recently, but was more realized last year), the help of 50/50 lows/Atlantic blocking in times the cold actually showed up, and at least a modest 'stand-off' against a complete SER overtaking. Still, I go back to how we scored in a warm winter last year and it was that persistent +PNA/-EPO hybrid that bailed us out. How else can you describe a snowy winter ranking in the top quartile for BNA...while also ranking in the top 10 warmest winters in recorded history? If my analytics are correct, 2015-16 was the 9th warmest winter and the 28th snowiest. But perhaps my favorite stat is we (BNA) were 7° WARMER than 2014-15, yet still finished with 5.2" more snow. Now, I know 50 miles would have altered those results dramatically. Still, the moral of the story is: we can still cash in when the overall pattern is crap assuming we can temporarily feast on a favorable teleconnection combo platter amplifying the trough axis with sufficient moisture feed (which hasn't been a problem this winter). I know the cold pool in the Pacific may indeed spoil whatever winter we have left, but my gut instinct suggests a good chunk of our state is in line for some measure of entertaining weather, whether it be stormy, wet, icy, maybe snowy, etc. For those on any forum bringing up 2011-12, I ask yourselves to consider which is worse: being in a winter where most people on one half of the conus is unified in suffering...or being in a setting similar to Nashville during the 'snowdome winter of 2013-14' (where we had so much going for our part of the country, but couldn't squeeze a couple inches of snow). Considering my locale has already received almost as much snow as 2013-14, I'm not as disappointed in this winter as I would have been 3-4+ years ago. Anywho, I apologize for the rambling. The coffee is kicking in big time and I'm all over the place as a result. Flash out. Feel free to drop that in the historical thread that we have...great post. I can adjust the title to reflect storms and winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Someone wake someone up and tell them it's winter time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 11 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Someone wake someone up and tell them it's winter time I never thought I would see another season like 2011/2012 but here it is! Last year would have been bad had it not been for the one event January 23 - 24; after a brief break for about a week, looks like we will go back to warm. My question remains, how did we get here? I mean, I do not recall seeing a Winter forecast saying that the West was going to get slammed and everyone else essentially was going to torch. Are the indices we use not fit? I mean, I am just curious. If I were to be so far off in my profession I would be fired. How can we fire the Winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 LOL. Climo almost always wins. We learn this lesson the hard way every winter. This is how we got here. Oceans rule the roost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Now check this out. Compare it to the Nina graph above. This is the 18z GFS 5 day temp mean for days 10-16. This is not rocket science... We talk about the oceans driving weather. This is why......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Here is the precip map for the entire 18z GFS. Compare it to the Nina map above. How did we get here? La Niña climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 It's been a very very weird year. We seem to have them regularly these days. The nina was so weak it barely can even be classified as one, yet the atmospheric response behaved as if it were a strong nina. Those are the ones that normally result in the map Carvers posted. We normally do well in weak nina/la nada years. But occasionally there's a clunker. This year looks very much like one of the rare ones that go horribly wrong. Last winter, strong nino, blow torch warmth, +NAO/+AO and it miraculously worked in the other direction north of 40 up into Southern KY and SWVA. 25-35 inches of snow last season in a lot of that area. I may be wrong too, but I don't hold out much hope for next winter being much better. Bad snow winters seem to run back to back here. 2011-12 and 2012-13 were awful here too. As was 2007-08 and 2008-09. 25% of normal snow for those winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 As for getting fired for being inaccurate? Saw maybe DT or another met discuss this. The problem w modeling weather is that the further you get from initialization, the greater number of potential paths the "outcome" can take. Some get upset when a model "takes away" their snow when in reality the model simply showed one (of several) outcome path. When the electronic snow is gone or lessened during the next run, the model is simply showing another outcome path much like Plinko. The closer you get to the event, the fewer the choices and higher statistical probability for a correct answer. Modeling chaos is not easy. It requires learning about as many variables as possible and creating equations and programs that can reduce the number of Plinko paths to a manageable number. But here is the kicker, nobody can control the outcome which means your job ultimately relies on mere chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 I do think the very high positive numbers and late flip for the QBO are reducing our chances for a -AO and -NAO. We can bypass that w a +PNA and -AO and no -NAO. But both the AO and NAO being generally positive reduces the East's chances for wintry weather. Again, as Bob Chill stated (paraphrased), we have been able to have some good recent winters w bad teleconnections...but generally +AO/+NAO winters are low snow winters. JB does like to point out that some drivers produce different results as the winter deepens. But generally, I think the Nina, latent heat from the last super Nino, low Arctic sea ice this fall, and the QBO are the places to look for "why." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 I can't help but get the impression this is directed toward me and in general, groups of newbies in the american weather forum some way as to be frustrated in explaining how everything falls into place in the grand scheme of things and how we interpret models? I'm here to learn and also contribute to a certain extent in the forum. Probably not the case you were even remotely pointing to, but just in case I apologize for any lack of crucial insight into the topic which I have displayed in my posts and want you to know I have good intention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 Euro is almost perfect at 500mb but is a surface torch. -AO/-NAO blocking over the top. Cold still bottled up in western Canada though and not really moving southeast like it should have to in that 500mb look. Would be surprised if that is the ultimate outcome of the 500mb look if it comes to pass. Joe B is still very enthusiastic about the 500mb and 850mb looks for cold and stormy east of the Mississippi though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: I can't help but get the impression this is directed toward me and in general, groups of newbies in the american weather forum some way as to be frustrated in explaining how everything falls into place in the grand scheme of things and how we interpret models? I'm here to learn and also contribute to a certain extent in the forum. Probably not the case you were even remotely pointing to, but just in case I apologize for any lack of crucial insight into the topic which I have displayed in my posts and want you to know I have good intention. I was answering weathertree's post...that statement couldn't be further from the truth. Take no offense, but I had no thought of you or newbies while posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: I was answering weathertree's post...that statement couldn't be further from the truth. Understood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: I was answering weathertree's post...that statement couldn't be further from the truth. Take no offense, but I had no thought of you or newbies while posting. By contrast our subforum is pretty small. We generally like to encourage discussion and welcome newbies and their comments. Occasionally we will point out the correct forum when something is misplaced, but we really want discussion... :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, John1122 said: Euro is almost perfect at 500mb but is a surface torch. -AO/-NAO blocking over the top. Cold still bottled up in western Canada though and not really moving southeast like it should have to in that 500mb look. Would be surprised if that is the ultimate outcome of the 500mb look if it comes to pass. Joe B is still very enthusiastic about the 500mb and 850mb looks for cold and stormy east of the Mississippi though. One thing I did notice on the GEPS (and have not looked at the EPS) is that heights drop over AK. Snowgoose in the MA forum mentioned that if AK heights drop...it is possible to have AN heights under the trough even w a -NAO/-AO combo. But yeah, something prob has to give. But the Weeklies have advertised the set-up for several runs. As someone noted in the MA, with the pattern in a state of flux...models are going to be all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I was answering weathertree's post...that statement couldn't be further from the truth. Take no offense, but I had no thought of you or newbies while posting. Thank you for your informative response it is appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Just now, weathertree4u said: Thank you for your informative response it is appreciated! And you are no newbie, man. Good, fair questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 11 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: By contrast our subforum is pretty small. We generally like to encourage discussion and welcome newbies and their comments. Occasionally we will point out the correct forum when something is misplaced, but we really want discussion... :-) Exactly. I don't think folks can find many examples where a new poster has been marginalized in this forum due to being new or having less knowledge. I am not sure I can think of one. Like I said, I wasn't even thinking about Blunder so that comment came out of left field. I don't even remember reading a post by that person regarding my answer to weathertree, who is BTW a veteran poster. But I will add, toes get stepped on often so have to be a bit tough as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Well, I suppose I have de-railed the topic at hand long enough. In retrospect I believe I came off a little darker than intended. I just fear coming off as arrogant or out of place is all. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 14 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: Well, I suppose I have de-railed the topic at hand long enough. In retrospect I believe I came off a little darker than intended. I just fear coming off as arrogant or out of place is all. haha I never take anyone here that way. I don't even mind a little banner between posts about the topic here. Other forums it seems to get out of hand and you read an entire page of people either being exuberant about upcoming potential without any context or analysis or people cancelling winter, also with no context or reasoning. I wish more people that lurked here posted. If nothing else to give obs or their take on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 22 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: Well, I suppose I have de-railed the topic at hand long enough. In retrospect I believe I came off a little darker than intended. I just fear coming off as arrogant or out of place is all. haha Nah, time to move on. Things get squirrelly from time to time. I mean, you know, you took so much valuable time away from us being able to discuss this once-in-a-lifetime snowy weather pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 15 minutes ago, John1122 said: I never take anyone here that way. I don't even mind a little banner between posts about the topic here. Other forums it seems to get out of hand and you read an entire page of people either being exuberant about upcoming potential without any context or analysis or people cancelling winter, also with no context or reasoning. I wish more people that lurked here posted. If nothing else to give obs or their take on things. Right. We have fewer posts, but in general, they are of good quality. Plus, we are all kind of like family on this forum. We can't have enough. But yeah, our forum is kind of like two friends that get into a dust-up on the playground but the winner gives the loser a ride home on their handlebars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 hour ago, John1122 said: It's been a very very weird year. We seem to have them regularly these days. The nina was so weak it barely can even be classified as one, yet the atmospheric response behaved as if it were a strong nina. Those are the ones that normally result in the map Carvers posted. We normally do well in weak nina/la nada years. But occasionally there's a clunker. This year looks very much like one of the rare ones that go horribly wrong. Last winter, strong nino, blow torch warmth, +NAO/+AO and it miraculously worked in the other direction north of 40 up into Southern KY and SWVA. 25-35 inches of snow last season in a lot of that area. I may be wrong too, but I don't hold out much hope for next winter being much better. Bad snow winters seem to run back to back here. 2011-12 and 2012-13 were awful here too. As was 2007-08 and 2008-09. 25% of normal snow for those winters. But winter is not over yet...and that weak Nina climo may yet show itself. Five weeks left of prime winter week climo. If I have learned anything on this forum, it is to never rule anything out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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