2016-2017 Great Tennessee Valley Winter Discussion

[Carvers Gap]

8 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Thanks I have read several different opinions on the nao around the board. I'm it sure if we can really accurately forecast the ao or the nao. Since 2011 we have not had any help with the nao at all. We are in 2017 and that looks to continue. I have read where we are entering a very favorable solar period and the amo, qbo, ect, ect. Not to get into climate change but I think we are entering a time of unknowns with patterns, the pv, and different things that are affecting blocking and different weather systems.

Factor in the variable John mentioned, then the upcoming solar min, favorable QBO, and the potential flip of the AMO in coming years....could make some serious money in the stock market if you could predict it w accuracy.

[Met1985]

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Factor in the variable John mentioned, then the upcoming solar min, favorable QBO, and the potential flip of the AMO in coming years....could make some serious money in the stock market if you could predict it w accuracy.

Lol no kidding. Once you dig deep into this it's amazing so much that factors into these patterns.

[Met1985]

Anybody have the eps run?

[Carvers Gap]

19 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Anybody have the eps run?

Pretty similar to 0z...late in the run stronger BN heights descending on Hudson Bay.

 

[Carvers Gap]

30 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Anybody have the eps run?

BIG area (edit..typo) of BN anomalies near northern shore of HB flattens the PNA a bit more than 0z.  Ridge over the Aleutians is stronger late in the run.

[Met1985]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

BIG are of BN anomalies near northern shore of HB flattens the PNA a bit more than 0z.  Ridge over the Aleutians is stronger late in the run.

Ok good deal. Thanks. 

[Carvers Gap]

When we refer to a flip...this is a flip.  18z GEFS.  Hour 0 to 384....During the next 16 days the GEFS portrays a flip of the anomalies for almost all of NA.  Pattern change is set to begin sometime around Jan25th.

[Met1985]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

When we refer to a flip...this is a flip.  18z GEFS.  Hour 0 to 384....During the next 16 days the GEFS portrays a flip of the anomalies for almost all of NA.  Pattern change is set to begin sometime around Jan25th.

Deep blues baby deep blues!

[John1122]

Been a while since we have seen this inside of 10 days. The GFS has been advertising snow showery weather from the Northern stream during the coming cold snap. Has a few clipper type systems lined up at 06z.

[tnweathernut]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

Been a while since we have seen this inside of 10 days. The GFS has been advertising snow showery weather from the Northern stream during the coming cold snap. Has a few clipper type systems lined up at 06z.

 

I think the higher elevations should do well with the predicted flow and little pieces of energy that will be rotating down and through. It's nice to see.  Individual pieces of energy will be largely missed at this lead, but if that pattern comes to pass it's not out of the realm of possibility we see a more vigorous piece of energy rotate through. Wouldn't be anything big of course, but a 2-4 type thing would be doable, especially with any elevation assistance. 

All speculation of course, but at least we are no longer looking at 50's and 60's for days and days on end, right?

[tnweathernut]

Note to self.  Actually look where you are before posting.  I put this in the mountain forum by accident, meant to put it here.... lol

BIG negative SOI burst today.

18 Jan 2017

1007.79

1008.80

-26.47

Today marks the 6th negative day in a row.  This should give a jolt to eventually deepen the trough in the Pacific to the point where our PNA pops nicely.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, tnweathernut said:

Note to self.  Actually look where you are before posting.  I put this in the mountain forum by accident, meant to put it here.... lol

BIG negative SOI burst today.

18 Jan 2017

1007.79

1008.80

-26.47

Today marks the 6th negative day in a row.  This should give a jolt to eventually deepen the trough in the Pacific to the point where our PNA pops nicely.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

Lol thanks for posting anyway! It is a good indicator. 

[jaxjagman]

After this system headed into Korea and Japan,nothing is showing up in East Asia for a prolonged period of time that would give us any decent system by the GEFS.After the system around the 27th,i wouldn't think we'd see much of anything other than nick and dimed if that with weak clipper like systems,if you get lucky.Pattern looks to hold well into the 2nd week of Feb for the Valley,more dry than wet

[jaxjagman]

Adding on to the above post

[jaxjagman]

Euro has been showing a trough going though East Asia,much deeper today.GEFS wants no part of it,maybe the EPS will start showing it today.

 

[tnweathernut]

12z Euro keeps interest up for the "inside" day 10 crowd.  Miller A, would be a nice southern apps paste job. There were a couple of members that showed similar potential over the past couple of days.  Will be interesting to see if more members begin showing something similar.  Perhaps a period to watch coming into better focus in the next couple of days.  

Either way, we keep denting the rain deficit thingy... not bad!

[jaxjagman]

Always have been wondering why the models have been showing this around the 27th.Using the EAR -1-2/+1/2 days it's been looking to me coming in faster than it should be.You can see this on this map here the system coming off of Korea into the Sea of Japan,now the Euro today is much slower.

 

 

Now todays Euro,much better

 

[weathertree4u]

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

Always have been wondering why the models have been showing this around the 27th.Using the EAR -1-2/+1/2 days it's been looking to me coming in faster than it should be.You can see this on this map here the system coming off of Korea into the Sea of Japan,now the Euro today is much slower.

 

 

Now todays Euro,much better

 

So would that also include any snow? I let my Weatherbell membership lapse so dont have access to as many goodies.

[tnweathernut]

 Cold air is marginal,  it mostly shows an elevation dependent storm for eastern areas. Probably silly to look at details this far out anyway. ....

[jaxjagman]

5 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

So would that also include any snow? I let my Weatherbell membership lapse so dont have access to as many goodies.

Couldn't tell you that at this range,nothing much is showing up for us right now,Eastern Valley system at this point

[jaxjagman]

11 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

 Cold air is marginal,  it mostly shows an elevation dependent storm for eastern areas. Probably silly to look at details this far out anyway. ....

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 12Z JAN18 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) WED 12Z 18-JAN 48.0 46.7 31004 0.00 0.00 32 WED 18Z 18-JAN 54.3 47.2 54.5 42.0 32002 0.00 0.00 85 THU 00Z 19-JAN 56.6 48.4 49.5 42.4 17002 0.00 0.00 97 THU 06Z 19-JAN 49.7 43.9 44.3 37.0 06002 0.00 0.00 94 THU 12Z 19-JAN 45.0 43.0 44.0 38.4 09002 0.00 0.00 90 THU 18Z 19-JAN 62.2 43.9 62.4 47.9 22000 0.00 0.00 95 FRI 00Z 20-JAN 63.3 55.9 56.8 50.9 14004 0.02 0.00 100 FRI 06Z 20-JAN 57.0 52.6 53.1 52.6 15005 0.13 0.00 100 FRI 12Z 20-JAN 55.5 53.0 54.8 54.0 20006 0.19 0.00 89 FRI 18Z 20-JAN 62.1 54.7 61.5 56.2 24006 0.04 0.00 56 SAT 00Z 21-JAN 64.7 57.1 58.0 53.0 19005 0.02 0.00 94 SAT 06Z 21-JAN 58.1 55.0 55.8 53.2 20004 0.00 0.00 100 SAT 12Z 21-JAN 56.5 53.6 55.5 54.0 12003 0.00 0.00 100 SAT 18Z 21-JAN 61.2 54.8 60.3 57.7 11002 0.05 0.00 100 SUN 00Z 22-JAN 61.5 57.8 57.8 56.6 15002 0.04 0.00 94 SUN 06Z 22-JAN 57.9 53.5 54.3 53.6 10002 0.01 0.00 100 SUN 12Z 22-JAN 55.3 52.7 53.4 52.8 35005 0.53 0.00 100 SUN 18Z 22-JAN 63.3 53.1 63.5 49.6 08004 0.50 0.00 95 MON 00Z 23-JAN 65.1 56.6 56.5 48.1 04007 0.00 0.00 100 MON 06Z 23-JAN 56.6 52.5 52.5 50.0 34011 0.06 0.00 100 MON 12Z 23-JAN 52.5 50.3 50.4 47.0 32010 0.21 0.00 100 MON 18Z 23-JAN 50.9 49.5 50.4 44.3 29011 0.14 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 24-JAN 51.4 49.3 49.3 44.9 27007 0.02 0.00 100 TUE 06Z 24-JAN 49.3 47.3 47.7 43.7 24005 0.00 0.00 98 TUE 12Z 24-JAN 47.7 43.1 43.0 41.4 19004 0.00 0.00 56 TUE 18Z 24-JAN 55.9 43.0 56.2 39.7 25010 0.00 0.00 69 WED 00Z 25-JAN 58.7 52.0 51.8 37.9 24006 0.00 0.00 4 WED 06Z 25-JAN 51.8 45.1 45.0 38.7 23003 0.00 0.00 8 WED 12Z 25-JAN 45.2 41.7 41.7 38.8 22002 0.00 0.00 49 WED 18Z 25-JAN 58.4 41.5 58.5 41.2 25004 0.00 0.00 36 THU 00Z 26-JAN 60.2 49.6 49.8 49.0 22003 0.20 0.00 69 THU 06Z 26-JAN 49.9 46.2 46.5 44.9 01004 0.15 0.00 95 THU 12Z 26-JAN 46.5 39.0 38.9 37.4 01004 0.01 0.00 74 THU 18Z 26-JAN 50.6 38.6 50.7 36.8 28003 0.00 0.00 96 FRI 00Z 27-JAN 51.5 44.5 45.7 36.6 13002 0.00 0.00 71 FRI 06Z 27-JAN 46.2 38.5 38.4 30.4 01005 0.00 0.00 86 FRI 12Z 27-JAN 38.4 35.6 35.7 30.0 03004 0.00 0.00 41 FRI 18Z 27-JAN 43.2 34.6 41.7 34.5 03003 0.03 0.00 98 SAT 00Z 28-JAN 41.8 35.0 35.0 34.7 33005 0.35 0.10 100 SAT 06Z 28-JAN 34.9 32.8 32.8 32.3 30007 0.34 0.26 100 SAT 12Z 28-JAN 32.8 30.2 30.1 28.5 28006 0.07 0.07 59

[John1122]

This looks snowy to me, but I only have access to 24 hour panels. Jax's text output looks good for Tys. Do you have one for Crossville Jax?

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

This looks snowy to me, but I only have access to 24 hour panels. Jax's text output looks good for Tys. Do you have one for Crossville Jax?

CSV?

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CSV    LAT=  35.95 LON=  -85.08 ELE=  1880

                                            12Z JAN18
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
WED 12Z 18-JAN                  43.6    41.9    30005   0.00    0.00      48    
WED 18Z 18-JAN  53.8    43.2    54.1    38.6    33002   0.00    0.00      90    
THU 00Z 19-JAN  57.1    48.5    48.5    40.3    30002   0.00    0.00      98    
THU 06Z 19-JAN  48.7    45.2    45.6    39.5    15003   0.00    0.00      95    
THU 12Z 19-JAN  47.6    45.6    47.2    40.5    14004   0.00    0.00     100    
THU 18Z 19-JAN  60.0    47.1    60.0    50.5    16006   0.01    0.00     100    
FRI 00Z 20-JAN  60.9    55.1    55.1    54.8    16009   0.07    0.00     100    
FRI 06Z 20-JAN  55.5    53.4    54.8    54.7    17012   0.39    0.00     100    
FRI 12Z 20-JAN  55.8    53.6    53.7    53.3    21006   0.26    0.00      75    
FRI 18Z 20-JAN  62.8    52.9    63.0    50.0    21008   0.01    0.00      61    
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  65.2    56.7    56.5    50.6    19006   0.00    0.00      95    
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  57.5    54.6    54.9    53.4    19007   0.00    0.00     100    
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  55.2    54.3    54.8    54.4    17006   0.00    0.00     100    
SAT 18Z 21-JAN  60.9    54.8    61.0    53.2    15005   0.03    0.00      91    
SUN 00Z 22-JAN  63.3    57.2    57.1    54.5    15005   0.00    0.00      99    
SUN 06Z 22-JAN  57.3    55.4    56.1    55.9    14004   0.00    0.00     100    
SUN 12Z 22-JAN  56.2    52.8    52.9    52.7    35002   0.19    0.00      99    
SUN 18Z 22-JAN  62.0    52.0    62.1    48.7    13004   0.05    0.00      94    
MON 00Z 23-JAN  63.7    55.5    55.3    49.5    01008   0.02    0.00     100    
MON 06Z 23-JAN  55.3    51.2    51.3    50.7    34012   0.01    0.00     100    
MON 12Z 23-JAN  51.3    49.1    48.9    47.7    31012   0.02    0.00     100    
MON 18Z 23-JAN  49.0    46.5    47.8    44.0    30011   0.01    0.00     100    
TUE 00Z 24-JAN  49.2    47.6    47.7    42.8    28007   0.01    0.00     100    
TUE 06Z 24-JAN  47.8    46.3    46.2    42.8    25006   0.00    0.00      85    
TUE 12Z 24-JAN  46.2    41.8    42.8    39.6    18005   0.00    0.00      94    
TUE 18Z 24-JAN  55.1    42.7    55.3    37.5    26012   0.00    0.00      40    
WED 00Z 25-JAN  57.5    47.9    47.7    38.8    26004   0.00    0.00       1    
WED 06Z 25-JAN  47.7    40.3    40.2    37.6    29002   0.00    0.00       7    
WED 12Z 25-JAN  40.3    38.4    38.4    36.7    20001   0.00    0.00      31    
WED 18Z 25-JAN  57.4    37.4    57.7    39.8    24005   0.00    0.00       6    
THU 00Z 26-JAN  59.2    47.1    47.0    46.3    21003   0.08    0.00      26    
THU 06Z 26-JAN  47.2    40.4    40.7    37.8    35004   0.00    0.00      19    
THU 12Z 26-JAN  40.7    35.8    35.9    33.5    00004   0.00    0.00      56    
THU 18Z 26-JAN  49.4    34.9    49.5    30.4    30006   0.00    0.00      74    
FRI 00Z 27-JAN  49.9    40.5    40.2    30.1    34005   0.00    0.00      26    
FRI 06Z 27-JAN  40.2    33.9    33.8    27.6    01006   0.00    0.00      14    
FRI 12Z 27-JAN  33.9    31.3    31.2    26.3    03006   0.00    0.00      67    
FRI 18Z 27-JAN  39.4    31.1    39.3    30.4    02004   0.01    0.00     100    
SAT 00Z 28-JAN  39.3    33.8    33.8    33.3    34008   0.25    0.16     100    
SAT 06Z 28-JAN  33.8    30.6    30.6    29.2    32007   0.17    0.15      90    
SAT 12Z 28-JAN  30.7    29.0    29.1    28.0    28005   0.01    0.01      85    


Probably mixing for both,both at least its showing winter.Still a long ways out.

[John1122]

41 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

CSV?

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CSV    LAT=  35.95 LON=  -85.08 ELE=  1880

                                            12Z JAN18
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
WED 12Z 18-JAN                  43.6    41.9    30005   0.00    0.00      48    
WED 18Z 18-JAN  53.8    43.2    54.1    38.6    33002   0.00    0.00      90    
THU 00Z 19-JAN  57.1    48.5    48.5    40.3    30002   0.00    0.00      98    
THU 06Z 19-JAN  48.7    45.2    45.6    39.5    15003   0.00    0.00      95    
THU 12Z 19-JAN  47.6    45.6    47.2    40.5    14004   0.00    0.00     100    
THU 18Z 19-JAN  60.0    47.1    60.0    50.5    16006   0.01    0.00     100    
FRI 00Z 20-JAN  60.9    55.1    55.1    54.8    16009   0.07    0.00     100    
FRI 06Z 20-JAN  55.5    53.4    54.8    54.7    17012   0.39    0.00     100    
FRI 12Z 20-JAN  55.8    53.6    53.7    53.3    21006   0.26    0.00      75    
FRI 18Z 20-JAN  62.8    52.9    63.0    50.0    21008   0.01    0.00      61    
SAT 00Z 21-JAN  65.2    56.7    56.5    50.6    19006   0.00    0.00      95    
SAT 06Z 21-JAN  57.5    54.6    54.9    53.4    19007   0.00    0.00     100    
SAT 12Z 21-JAN  55.2    54.3    54.8    54.4    17006   0.00    0.00     100    
SAT 18Z 21-JAN  60.9    54.8    61.0    53.2    15005   0.03    0.00      91    
SUN 00Z 22-JAN  63.3    57.2    57.1    54.5    15005   0.00    0.00      99    
SUN 06Z 22-JAN  57.3    55.4    56.1    55.9    14004   0.00    0.00     100    
SUN 12Z 22-JAN  56.2    52.8    52.9    52.7    35002   0.19    0.00      99    
SUN 18Z 22-JAN  62.0    52.0    62.1    48.7    13004   0.05    0.00      94    
MON 00Z 23-JAN  63.7    55.5    55.3    49.5    01008   0.02    0.00     100    
MON 06Z 23-JAN  55.3    51.2    51.3    50.7    34012   0.01    0.00     100    
MON 12Z 23-JAN  51.3    49.1    48.9    47.7    31012   0.02    0.00     100    
MON 18Z 23-JAN  49.0    46.5    47.8    44.0    30011   0.01    0.00     100    
TUE 00Z 24-JAN  49.2    47.6    47.7    42.8    28007   0.01    0.00     100    
TUE 06Z 24-JAN  47.8    46.3    46.2    42.8    25006   0.00    0.00      85    
TUE 12Z 24-JAN  46.2    41.8    42.8    39.6    18005   0.00    0.00      94    
TUE 18Z 24-JAN  55.1    42.7    55.3    37.5    26012   0.00    0.00      40    
WED 00Z 25-JAN  57.5    47.9    47.7    38.8    26004   0.00    0.00       1    
WED 06Z 25-JAN  47.7    40.3    40.2    37.6    29002   0.00    0.00       7    
WED 12Z 25-JAN  40.3    38.4    38.4    36.7    20001   0.00    0.00      31    
WED 18Z 25-JAN  57.4    37.4    57.7    39.8    24005   0.00    0.00       6    
THU 00Z 26-JAN  59.2    47.1    47.0    46.3    21003   0.08    0.00      26    
THU 06Z 26-JAN  47.2    40.4    40.7    37.8    35004   0.00    0.00      19    
THU 12Z 26-JAN  40.7    35.8    35.9    33.5    00004   0.00    0.00      56    
THU 18Z 26-JAN  49.4    34.9    49.5    30.4    30006   0.00    0.00      74    
FRI 00Z 27-JAN  49.9    40.5    40.2    30.1    34005   0.00    0.00      26    
FRI 06Z 27-JAN  40.2    33.9    33.8    27.6    01006   0.00    0.00      14    
FRI 12Z 27-JAN  33.9    31.3    31.2    26.3    03006   0.00    0.00      67    
FRI 18Z 27-JAN  39.4    31.1    39.3    30.4    02004   0.01    0.00     100    
SAT 00Z 28-JAN  39.3    33.8    33.8    33.3    34008   0.25    0.16     100    
SAT 06Z 28-JAN  33.8    30.6    30.6    29.2    32007   0.17    0.15      90    
SAT 12Z 28-JAN  30.7    29.0    29.1    28.0    28005   0.01    0.01      85    


Probably mixing for both,both at least its showing winter.Still a long ways out.

Thanks, it looks like verbatim a rain to snow event. Those used to happen semi-regularly but rarely seem to any more. Still a ways out. Hopefully the storm stays and track stays. I'd take my chances with the set up.

[Carvers Gap]

Got it to work this time.  This is a gif of the event that brought heavy snows to the West coast and flooding rains that filled reservoirs.

[Carvers Gap]

Digging around found a great site for looking at the Earth's atmospheric river.  Current gif...

Link:http://mead.ucsd.edu

[JayCee]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Digging around found a great site for looking at the Earth's atmospheric river.  Current gif...

Link:http://mead.ucsd.edu

Thanks for posting; both very cool!  And wow...the river pointed toward the west coast of North America has connections to the Philippine Islands. 

[Carvers Gap]

Hopefully to get the conversation rolling again...12z GFS and Euro look very good.  The 12z GEFS keeps the PV near Hudson Bay.  This allows AN heights to work underneath late in the period.  Tough to tell if a reload or a move to a zonal pattern is in the works...for which there is some support.  The GEPS never locks in the PNA ridge which is a break IMO from other models including its 0z run...excluding the EPS as it is not out yet.  Some cold looks.  The debate now is how long can the PNA ridge hold?  Have to think the weeklies tonight are going to be pretty meh as the 0z Euro and ensemble were not inspiring late in the run.

[Carvers Gap]

Definitely some tempered cause for concern in the distant LR as the PNA ridge rolls eastward.  Some modeling holds it in place longer.  Tough to tell if another PNA ridge builds right behind it.  There are some zonal looks as the PV retreats too far north to press the trough.  There are some looks where the PV rotates spokes of cold.  Not a slam dunk in any direction.  If forced I would say 7-10 days of good cold weather after the current warm-up...followed by zonal...and then things diverge.  Not sure.

[John1122]

GFS is northern stream system after northern stream system. One takes a perfect path for Tennessee snow on the 12z run. We can get widespread 2-4 inch snows with the right path on the clippers but it's tough to see more than a day in advance where they actually track. The potential of the pattern is borne out on the GFS as between the 27th and Feb 1st  roughly 1-3 inches falls over most of the lower elevations of the state except for far sw Tn and the Chattanooga area, with 3-5 over the Plateau/NE Tn with 5-8 in the mountains and SWVA. It will depend on track as to whether that happens or not of course, but the potential is there for 3 or 4 days with several snowy impulses rotating through. 

I'm less worried about the long range pattern break down, models almost always break patterns down too fast. The coming cold basically went from the 21st, to the 23rd, to the 25th to the 27th before it gets here, and I'm still hoping the 27th is doable.