tnweathernut Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Some will argue that the QBO has been the best indicator this winter. I am no expert on it......What is the scoop on the ice storm? I have not been following that story today. The QBO has such a limited data set (around 60-65 years and I think its only truly been studied more in depth for the last 10-15). I won't disagree there are a LOT of smart people that understand the basics of the QBO. I won't even disagree the QBO has significant impacts on our weather. I am just saying once you start drilling down and limiting the QBO (i.e. eastern QBO, western QBO, strongly negative, strongly positive, etc.) while considering its trend (i.e. rising rapidly, falling gradually, stalling, etc.) that's just not going to leave you with enough analogs to definitively say how things will play out. Not to mention you are trying to key in on impacts from other indices at the same time. I could be completely wrong, but I have never been one for relying solely on one piece of information. Don't get me wrong, if it's leaning/pointing cold, I'll take it. lol I just won't take it to the bank. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 16 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: The QBO has such a limited data set (around 60-65 years and I think its only truly been studied more in depth for the last 10-15). I won't disagree there are a LOT of smart people that understand the basics of the QBO. I won't even disagree the QBO has significant impacts on our weather. I am just saying once you start drilling down and limiting the QBO (i.e. eastern QBO, western QBO, strongly negative, strongly positive, etc.) while considering its trend (i.e. rising rapidly, falling gradually, stalling, etc.) that's just not going to leave you with enough analogs to definitively say how things will play out. Not to mention you are trying to key in on impacts from other indices at the same time. I could be completely wrong, but I have never been one for relying solely on one piece of information. Don't get me wrong, if it's leaning/pointing cold, I'll take it. lol I just won't take it to the bank. haha Well stated. That is a small data set for sure. I will not even venture into QBO territory. Ha! And yes, definitely want to see more than one indicator (unless that indicator is the driver such as ENSO). I mentioned the MJO today, because it continues to look decent for a return to winter. I like to see continuity, and if anything, a strengthening signal. Good to see several indicators pointing towards cold...Another interesting item is I have seen several folks mentioning that were are seeing some Nino behavior by the atmosphere in places like the Sierra Nevada. I am still seeing mostly Nina reactions, but there is a bit of a Nino quality to things...especially w the LR look of an undercutting jet. You know, I am encouraged that Jeff thought about using hashtags. That is probably a better sign than the MJO. Weathertree, keep us posted on the ice storm. Next few days are going to be pretty boring until we see the time frame around the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 What a run of the Euro Weeklies this evening. Very good run. <Updated> wk/500/850/2m temp 1 AN/AN/AN 2 BN/AN/AN (transitional week) 3 BN/BN/BN 4 BN/BN/BN 5 BN/BN/BN 6 BN/BN/BN 6.5 BN/BN/BN Strong blocking evident. +PNA beginning late during wk 2 and lasting the duration. -NAO from wk5-7. (Like BirminghamWX, I will believe that one when I see it.) But just looking at 500mb pressures and 850 temps, I am not sure you could ask for a better run if you like winter...especially after a 10-12 day warm spell. I will add that this is not a forecast by me, but it is a description ot the Euro Weeklies this evening.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: What a run of the Euro Weeklies this evening. They are still rolling as we speak. I will update this post as the model output comes in... wk/500/850/2m temp 1 AN/AN/- 2 BN/AN/- (transitional week) 3 BN/BN/- 4 BN/BN/- 5 BN/BN/- 6 BN/BN/- 6.5 BN/BN/- Strong blocking evident. +PNA beginning late during wk 2. -NAO from wk5-7. (Like BirminghamWX, I will believe that one when I see it.) But just looking at 500mb pressures and 850 temps, I am not sure you could ask for a better run if you like winter...especially after a 10-12 day warm spell. Very nice. Keep us posted. I'm glad to see some consistency coming from the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2017 Author Share Posted January 13, 2017 If we can get cooperation from the PNA/EPO it can overcome the NAO regardless of its state. The great February of 14 and 15 were achieved without any sustained Atlantic blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Son has a gymnastics meet tomorrow here in Chicago .Had this date circled for the longest hoping to see some good snow :(All i'm doing is watching my step hoping not to bust my behind with ice,but after leaving near 70's mid morn today and getting into lower 20's here,it feels like the North Pole .I Agree with Carver,all things considering the weeklies look decent.Let's just hope it's not cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 8 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Models and Ensembles are starting to show a PV split or at least PV jostle in the 11-15 day range. Other tools noted from 500 mb down also line up. Little early to say whether they are all acting in concert, which would be quite significant, or if we just count up the factors in favor of cold. No hashtags this time, lol! Man,both the Euro and GFS throwing up some good severe looks ,around wk.3 of Jan.When ever i look at the showalter and capes on the euro i expect the GFS to back down in the Valley,not so much at all.Still long range though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 2 hours ago, Mrwolf1972 said: GFS 0z shows a winter system the 28th. 06z has storm day earlier but to far south. Something to watch These are not something to watch....if you have an overarching pattern post to go with it, that is fine. But posting 360hr GFS frames that show snow in the south will clog this thread all winter long...feel free to post this in the banter thread and say, "wow, what a storm...sure wish this would happen".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 24 minutes ago, Mr Bob said: These are not something to watch....if you have an overarching pattern post to go with it, that is fine. But posting 360hr GFS frames that show snow in the south will clog this thread all winter long...feel free to post this in the banter thread and say, "wow, what a storm...sure wish this would happen".... I disagree, for what it is worth, the post is representative of the possible pattern change, which is what we had been discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Our board (every subforum) has always had a rule against posting long range surface maps. Anything beyond day 7/8 is considered fantasy, although throwing a 500mb map or two up and talking about the pattern progression would be fine beyond day 7/8. Our subforum is a bit more relaxed than others, but MrBob (and all the moderators) have a pretty uninviting job to do. Just my opinion, but if a moderator indicates where something should be it's not really open for discussion. Just put it where they want it (which everyone will still see) and make their job a little easier. On topic - Almost all modeling indicates we are headed toward potential opportunity by the end of the month. The SOI is finally negative and trending further in that direction. We also see indices like the PNA popping positive on most modeling and the EPO going negative, again toward the end of the month. The weeklies looked great and we are seeing fantasy looks as we head down the road, along with a potential SSW. Get outside and have fun the next week to 10 days as it looks like winter will return somewhere in the mid-south... If not, it would be a pretty big model bust. Biggest question in my mind will be if the transition is transient or something that will be able to lock for more than 4-5 days. Let the battle begin, shortly after our period where record highs will be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 11 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Man,both the Euro and GFS throwing up some good severe looks ,around wk.3 of Jan.When ever i look at the showalter and capes on the euro i expect the GFS to back down in the Valley,not so much at all.Still long range though. The following comments are not so much in response to Jax's post, but his post reminded me of a thought that I had the other day. You know I have seen 1993 kicked around as a winter that turned warm and flipped back cold. Now, before anyone says I am calling for the Storm of the Century....no. I lived in Knoxville in 1993. I remember watching TV and seeing wave after wave of tornado warnings issued during one February evening. I also remember hearing all available local first responders being summoned to Lenoir City as reports of it being leveled by a tornado. It was an evening I hope we never repeat. But I look at this pattern we are in...warm temps, extreme cold to our north, a sort of Pineapple Express on the Pacific coast, and a potential pattern change on the horizon. I am no severe wx expert, but IMO there are some ingredients there for a stormy event at some point. The old saying about thunder during the winter means snow falling 7-10 days later...that works pretty well in my area. Severe wx during winter definitely fits w a pattern change and might even give me more confidence that winter is returning full force after that. In 1993, we had severe storms on Feb 22 and the blizzard on March 13. No, it does not fit the thunder rule perfectly. However, it was a shock to see two such extremes so close to each other on the wx timeline. http://www.nytimes.com/1993/02/23/us/storms-kill-3-and-hurt-70-in-tennessee-and-georgia.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 35 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The following comment are not so much in response to Jax's post, but his post reminded me of a thought that I had the other day. You know I have seen 1993 kicked around as a winter that turned warm and flipped back cold. Now, before anyone says I am calling for the Storm of the Century....no. I lived in Knoxville in 1993. I remember watching TV and seeing wave after wave of tornado warnings issued during one February evening. I also remember hearing all available local first responders being summoned to Lenoir City as reports of it being leveled by a tornado. It was an evening I hope we never repeat. But I look at this pattern we are in...warm temps, extreme cold to our north, a sort of Pineapple Express on the Pacific coast, and a potential pattern change on the horizon. I am no severe wx expert, but IMO there are some ingredients there for a stormy event at some point. The old saying about thunder during the winter means snow falling 7-10 days later...that works pretty well in my area. Severe wx during winter definitely fits w a pattern change and might even give me more confidence that winter is returning full force after that. In 1993, we had severe storms on Feb 22 and the blizzard on March 13. No, it does not fit the thunder rule perfectly. However, it was a shock to see two such extremes so close to each other on the wx timeline. http://www.nytimes.com/1993/02/23/us/storms-kill-3-and-hurt-70-in-tennessee-and-georgia.html I remember those storms very well that february. Where I lived at the time we had tree damage on our property, and I remember wall to wall coverage of Lenoir City that evening. I had completely forgot that occurred the same winter as the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 It's amazing to see virtually every indicator headed in a positive direction (for cold and "opportunity") toward late month and into February. I don't recall the last time that happened. Usually there are conflicting signals and we just hug the colder ones, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2017 Author Share Posted January 13, 2017 12z showed less +pna look and more -epo look, which allowed cold to dump into the west and slowly bleed east, as has been the pattern on repeat the last 40 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, John1122 said: 12z showed less +pna look and more -epo look, which allowed cold to dump into the west and slowly bleed east, as has been the pattern on repeat the last 40 days or so. Did you see the 12z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2017 Author Share Posted January 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Did you see the 12z Euro? I see it through 240. It's 240 look is odd to say the least with the off the charts 500mb look over the Hudson Bay. It does force what looks to be a powerful storm south of us, but there's no cold to work with from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 That is one crazy run of the Euro. Take a look at 500mb NH view. Bob Chill has a pretty funny comment about it in the MA forum. Shoved the energy under the ridge on this run. BIG change. Prob rain here...but if that crazy look is anywhere close to correct...cold gets here early. The Weeklies depict a block that gets undercut, PNA builds, cold comes East, and locks. That run has that look. If the energy goes under the ridge...prob won't have that look. But that dog is hunting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 20 hours ago, John1122 said: I see it through 240. It's 240 look is odd to say the least with the off the charts 500mb look over the Hudson Bay. It does force what looks to be a powerful storm south of us, but there's no cold to work with from what I can tell. Yep....just posted right above this one. That is a huge break from continuity. It would bring the flip much quicker as that appears to be a signal for an EC storm. And yes, too warm on that run for us...but the storm itself is still a bonus if real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2017 Author Share Posted January 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Yep....just posted right above this one. That is a huge break from continuity. It would bring the flip much quicker as that appears to be a signal for an EC storm. And yes, too warm on that run for us...but the storm itself is still a bonus if real, The Euro seems sold on that huge HP building over Eastern Canada the last few runs. But it's also showing the cold dumping into the west and bleeding eastward. With any luck that can transition into a more stable Eastern trough instead of a continuation of the prior pattern of cutters followed by cold that comes in from the west, with another cutter in the offing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: The Euro seems sold on that huge HP building over Eastern Canada the last few runs. But it's also showing the cold dumping into the west and bleeding eastward. With any luck that can transition into a more stable Eastern trough instead of a continuation of the prior pattern of cutters followed by cold that comes in from the west, with another cutter in the offing. Yep. Basically how the weeklies had it. Undercutting of the ridge. Ridge retrogrades from eastern Canada and eventually holds/relocates in AK. Trough forms in the east. Could the trough be delayed a couple of days? Maybe. Sometimes models jump too quickly. Overall. Models are pretty adament that the PNA will pop. It is there on d10 of the Euro, just small and I have no idea if that one is permanent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2017 Author Share Posted January 13, 2017 26 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Yep. Basically how the weeklies had it. Undercutting of the ridge. Ridge retrogrades from eastern Canada and eventually holds/relocates in AK. Trough forms in the east. Could the trough be delayed a couple of days? Maybe. Sometimes models jump too quickly. Overall. Models are pretty adament that the PNA will pop. It is there on d10 of the Euro, just small and I have no idea if that one is permanent. The 12z gfs ens still hint at the +pna but the op does not. It has a big Alaskan ridge with the lowest heights over the PACNW and leads to a neutralish PNA. Yesterday's 12z run showed rising heights in the entire west coast area, a more traditional +PNA build. I'm generally more inclined to roll with the ENS but the OP is showing a re-establishing of a pattern that's been quite steady for 30+ days prior to this warm shift so I can see how that would come to pass as well. That said, we can still do well with a major -EPO, though there's no Atlantic side blocking to speak of on the OP in the time the -EPO sets up. But the ENS show decent -NAO inbound during the period. FWIW the GFS PARA is also big on the West coast cold dump repeat pattern, although the 06z did improve a lot over the 00z. GEFS = great. GFS OP = good but not as good as the ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbowman Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Just curious, but if a strong positive PNA builds as projected, what happens to the current pineapple express slamming the West coast with storm after storm? Do the systems ride up and over the ridge, or cut underneath on a southern stream?I've seen both pay off for snow in our area, but I like our chances better if the storms ride up and over the ridge. That's more digging and a better shot at deep cyclogenesis as it bottoms out and begins the ride back north at the bottom of the trough.Sent from my LG-H901 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2017 Author Share Posted January 13, 2017 00z para West Coast dumper. 06z para trying to build a potential PNA ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 All major ensembles have the PNA ridge in the LR. We will see how the 12z EPS does. Using operationals at LR is risky IMO. Sometimes they catch a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 12z GEFS, GEPS, and EPS all have the +PNA. GEPS has it at beginning @ 228. EPS has it at 288. GEFS has it at 318 if not before. A lot of this depends on how the storm around 240 is handled. If it cuts under the block, cold is here earlier. If it cuts into the Plains, a bit later. Even the 12z Euro has a weak ridge in the west at d10, though it is difficult to tell how permanent that feature is as I mentioned earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 One other piece of information....the 12z EPS also adds some clarity to the the op. Two clusters of lows exist at d9.5 . One set is in the northern Plains. Another larger cluster is over the Louisiana/Arkansas region. Seemed to look like it wants to cut just west of the Apps as a Miller B. Coastal reflection at d11.5. BIG change. Thought the op was a mess, both the EPS and op seem to hint at an EC storm as a possibility...prob more of a northeast event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 When I see the NAO forecast to take that kind of dip....in my book, that is a decent signal for an EC storm. Hey, for you WxBell subscribers, take a look at the CFS2 submonthly snowfall map for the next 45 days. 12z is pretty juicy. When I see those numbers trending upward as they have today, to me that is another good signal that more winter is on its way. They are usually inflated so I don't post them. That map is as stout as I have seen it in some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 While in the middle of this warm-up...thought I would share some things I am reading about. Couple of links about the QBO...First one is the definition. Second is the index itself. We would ideally like it to be negative or an easterly QBO. As of December, it is positive. That may be the fly in the ointment this winter. Look at some of the great winters and often negative values show up. For the EC, negative values or easterly QBO winds may help enhance -NAOs and force SSWs. Again, the most recent value is positive which signals a westerly QBO. The first article states it takes roughly 14 months for a reversal. We are overdue for a reversal to negative if I understand things correctly. Maybe the super nino was the culprit? As tnweathernut mentioned, there is a small data set and correlations are debatable and maybe not completely understood. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/quasi-biennial-oscillation https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbowman Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Thanks for the links. Interesting stuff!Sent from my LG-H901 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2017 Author Share Posted January 14, 2017 00z Euro has a hurricane basically sitting off the coast of South Carolina D 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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