weathertree4u Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 5 hours ago, John1122 said: GEFS baby steps. The last 48 hours of the run shows the end of the Alaskan death vortex and shows above normal heights building from the west up to there. Honestly, one would think that forum members do not go through this every year! Even some of the historically awesome winters that Nashville has had have had warm spell. I do not know if these are analogs for our current winter but they re-affirm my point that sometimes, it is warm during the winter but sometimes, as in 1951 and 1963, you are within a week or two of some pretty awesome winter weather. From 01/17/1951 - 01/20/1951 Nashville was well into the mid and upper 60's I am sure people were thinking winter was over. Here are a couple of entries from the weather records for the end of the month... 01/29/1951 - The worst ice storm in Nashville's history begins, causing a complete stalemate of transportation in Nashville for two days. Frozen precipitation starts during the evening, with 1.6" of snow and ice accumulating by midnight 01/30/1951 - Five inches of snow and ice fall, much of it during the evening, producing a water equivalent of 3.83". This is the greatest one-day precipitation event for January in Nashville's history. 02/01/1951 - Precipitation continues at Nashville through the morning, most of it as snow, and finally ends around noon. An additional 5.2" are measured, leaving the city buried under 8" of ice and snow. 02/02/1951 - Temperature at Nashville drops to -13, tying the record low for the month. Consider January 1963. From 01/09/1963 - 01/11/1963 Nashville was well into the 60's and very mild until 01/23/1963. 01/10/1963 - An F3 tornado touches down at Spring Hill (Maury County) just before midnight. The twister cuts a 4 mile path, lifting at Bethesda (Williamson County), after causing 4 injuries. 01/23/1963 - The strongest cold front in mid state history brings heavy snow and an unprecedented drop in temperature. Nashville receives 6.2" of snow. In addition, the high temperature reaches 48 degrees, but plummets to -13 degrees by midnight, for a range of 61 degrees. This is the greatest daily range of temperatures in Nashville's history. 01/24/1963 - Temperature at Kingston Springs drops to -30 degrees, which is the lowest temperature ever recorded in Middle Tennessee, and comes within 2 degrees of tying the all-time record low for Tennessee (Mountain City, 12/30/1917). Other record lows include Clarksville (-17), Dover (-24), Lafayette (-20), Linden (-18), Portland (-19), Springfield (-18), and Waverly (-26). In fact, Waverly sees its temperature drop by 80 degrees with the passage of the strongest cold front in mid state history. Five inches of snow accompany the dramatic change in temperature. The Duck River freezes solid from bank to bank for the first time since 1898. Harbors along the Tennessee River also freeze. It is considered the worst winter weather since the 1951 ice storm. http://www.weather.gov/ohx/calendar I have also attached some pix from the January 1951 storm in Nashville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Good post above. Every winter has a mild shot or two, especially in temperate regions like the United States. There is plenty of winter left, and I'm sure we'll have more to track at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 That 51 storm in Nashville is likely the most epic winter storm in Nashville history. There was 4.86" of liquid equivalent in the sleet/snow/ice mix. 11.9" of total ice/snow. Sounds like four or five inches of brick like sleet/ice/snow combo covered up with five or six inches of powder! Snowcover from that one storm lasted at least 15 days and it took some 70 weather in mid-February to fully get rid of it. In addition January was actually above normal and February was normal in spite of three days of sub-zero to begin the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 No doubt a January thaw is going to hit us squarely between the eyes. It's good to see a way out of the upcoming warm pattern showing up on modeling the last day or so. Combine that with the weeklies and also with ensemble support and you have to feel better about where things could go. Enjoy the next couple of weeks of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 The 12z GFS at LR...I will take some of that. Cross polar flow. Looks a bit transient, but at least the heat ridge is toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Good stuff! 1951 was another weak La Nina. 1963 was La Nada but on the Nina size of zero. Hmmm, sound familiar? PDO may get some more influence going into Feb. Euro weeklies and CFS weeklies both go colder toward the change of month, although they disagree on timing. Any surprise there? Nope, but confidence is building in another chance of cold for the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 minute ago, nrgjeff said: Good stuff! 1951 was another weak La Nina. 1963 was La Nada but on the Nina size of zero. Hmmm, sound familiar? PDO may get some more influence going into Feb. Euro weeklies and CFS weeklies both go colder toward the change of month, although they disagree on timing. Any surprise there? Nope, but confidence is building in another chance of cold for the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. I like what I am seeing LR - for now, enjoy the warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Weathertree, you need to copy that post about the Nashville snowstorm and put in the Historic TN Snowstorms thread as well. Great info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Weathertree, you need to copy that post about the Nashville snowstorm and put in the Historic TN Snowstorms thread as well. Great info. Done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 Slowly reeling it in, hope the trends continue. Lots of long range mets are onboard with a Jan 25thish pattern shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 NAO goes neutral to negative, AO goes neutral to negative, PNA appears to go negative to positive. If we can get those 3 to work together it can be major winter around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, weathertree4u said: Done! Thanks, man. Trying to collect come history of great winter storms for this forum area. If any of our northern MS or AL folks have some storms, they are welcome to post them in that thread as well. I placed the great Pisgah late season snows in there a few weeks ago. Some good looks on the late afternoon model suites. I think folks have covered most of the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Thanks, man. Trying to collect come history of great winter storms for this forum area. If any of our northern MS or AL folks have some storms, they are welcome to post them in that thread as well. I placed the great Pisgah late season snows in there a few weeks ago. Some good looks on the late afternoon model suites. I think folks have covered most of the trends. No worries. I was at a birthday party for a second cousin about two years ago in Northern Alabama. She was from a small town called Arab, close by you have Union Grove and a couple of others. In some of the pix that family had - was to celebrate her 80th - were pix of the New Years Eve storm 1963 that absolutely clobbered the TN Valley. The NWS Huntsville used to have a link on their website but would love to see some personal pix or stories of the storm. The official record in the NWS Nashville is as follows... 1964- New Year's Day storm sets single day snowfall records in several locations, including Lawrenceburg, with 16", Waynesboro, 15½", Columbia and Mount Pleasant (1 N), 15", Lewisburg, 12½", Pulaski, 11½", Centerville and Neapolis, 11", Lebanon (7 N), Linden, and Old Hickory Dam, 10", and Shelbyville, 9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, John1122 said: NAO goes neutral to negative, AO goes neutral to negative, PNA appears to go negative to positive. If we can get those 3 to work together it can be major winter around here. That would be *jackpot* for most of the Eastern U.S. Cha-ching!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 5 hours ago, John1122 said: NAO goes neutral to negative, AO goes neutral to negative, PNA appears to go negative to positive. If we can get those 3 to work together it can be major winter around here. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 9 hours ago, BlunderStorm said: Yup I like the way we are headed though, honestly I needed a break from buring wood for a few days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 12z EPS has a PNA ridge at d11.5. Takes about three days, and the eastern trough is filled w BN 850 temps drop about 24 hours later. By d14-15 there is a pretty strong signal for BN temps over the SE. PNA ridge appears to hold w AN heights creeping into AK and "over the top". Trough is east of Hawaii. The control is very impressive as well. The GEFS and GEM ensembles support this look and time frame. Pattern begins to shift around Jan 23rd w downstream results a couple of days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z EPS has a PNA ridge at d11.5. Takes about three days, and the eastern trough is filled w BN 850 temps drop about 24 hours later. By d14-15 there is a pretty strong signal for BN temps over the SE. PNA ridge appears to hold w AN heights creeping into AK and "over the top". Trough is east of Hawaii. The control is very impressive as well. The GEFS and GEM ensembles support this look and time frame. Pattern begins to shift around Jan 23rd w downstream results a couple of days later. Yep all good signs. I think we can get another storm around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Just now, Met1985 said: Yep all good signs. I think we can get another storm around here. FWIW, the 18z GFS looked really good at LR. That transition to that pattern is just after d10. So, will be nice to get it inside of d10 to get it into better focus. What I do like is the consistent PNA ridge that seems to be holding position. That in and of itself would be a major change. But as with anything in involving weather, we aren't privy to the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Just now, Carvers Gap said: FWIW, the 18z GFS looked really good at LR. That transition to that pattern is just after d10. So, will be nice to get it inside of d10 to get it into better focus. What I do like is the consistent PNA ridge that seems to be holding position. That in and of itself would be a major change. But as with anything in involving weather, we aren't privy to the future. Yeah the PNA is the key and some ridging over the top. Maybe a negative EPO. Since the pattern has shown we van get snow and pretty deep then it will repeat or at least show up again with a chance of something. We really cannot ask for anything more in this season in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 It'd be hard to get a much better look than the long range of he 18z. Aleutian low, EPO ridge connecting with a PNA ridge, deep trough in the east, building -AO and -NAO. If we can manage that look the last week of January look out for potential snowy fireworks in February once again this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Amateur question I know, but do you think these uneventful Decembers and Fab Februaries are a coincidence or part of a growing change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Still long range,but like the looks around around the 25-26th.Let's hope the jet don't crush our hopes like the GFS is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 MJO looks pretty good today w some higher amplitude plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 30 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: MJO looks pretty good today w some higher amplitude plots. Seems like we have been here before though; it is always in the long range, then when we get to the long-range, it will be mid Feb and so on; is there anything about this that leads anyone to believe that it is actually going to occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 9 hours ago, weathertree4u said: Seems like we have been here before though; it is always in the long range, then when we get to the long-range, it will be mid Feb and so on; is there anything about this that leads anyone to believe that it is actually going to occur? It has been pretty accurate this winter even at low amplitude, and is very powerful tool in predicting weather here when active. Some will say when in the COD, it is less of an indicator. It foreshadowed the recent flip on the models projected around Jan 25th. I wouldn't post it if I didn't think it had a chance at verifying. The oceans drive our climate. It will most likely verify w the current warm spell. As I noted in multiple previous posts, it has been in low amplitude for much of the winter season. Those low amplitude plots you have to use at your own risk. There is no guarantee any weather map verifies. However, projected rising heights over the far western Pacific and an energized SOI that is now dropping are pretty strong indicators that the MJO is on the move. Notice the sharp rise and drop in the MJO...that is a pretty good sign that winter will return. Models will usually jump too quickly on the pattern flip. I think the MJO and QBO have been fairly good indicators this winter in predicting a winter with wild swings. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: It has been pretty accurate this winter even at low amplitude, and is very powerful tool in predicting weather here when active. Some will say when in the COD, it is less of an indicator. It foreshadowed the recent flip on the models projected around Jan 25th. I wouldn't post it if I didn't think it had a chance at verifying. The oceans drive our climate. It will be most likely verify w the current warm spell. As I noted in multiple previous posts, it has been in low amplitude for much of the winter season. Those low amplitude plots you have to use at your own risk. There is no guarantee any weather map verifies. However, projected rising heights over the far western Pacific and an energized SOI that is now dropping are pretty strong indicators that the MJO is on the move. Notice the sharp rise and drop in the MJO...that is a pretty good sign that winter will return. Models will usually jump too quickly on the pattern flip. I think the MJO and QBO have been fairly good indicators this winter in predicting a winter with wild swings. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ Ok, sounds good would just like to see one good hit like we had last Winter but everyone that frequents this board knows how hard it usually is to get everything to line up just right for the TN Valley in general to get snow. My heart does go out for those in country that could be staring down the barrel of a damaging ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: Ok, sounds good would just like to see one good hit like we had last Winter but everyone that frequents this board knows how hard it usually is to get everything to line up just right for the TN Valley in general to get snow. My heart does go out for those in country that could be staring down the barrel of a damaging ice storm. Some will argue that the QBO has been the best indicator this winter. I am no expert on it......What is the scoop on the ice storm? I have not been following that story today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Models and Ensembles are starting to show a PV split or at least PV jostle in the 11-15 day range. Other tools noted from 500 mb down also line up. Little early to say whether they are all acting in concert, which would be quite significant, or if we just count up the factors in favor of cold. No hashtags this time, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Some will argue that the QBO has been the best indicator this winter. I am no expert on it......What is the scoop on the ice storm? I have not been following that story today. Well, according to TWC it will be crippling, so hard to tell with them anymore since everything is, imo, blown out of proportion. Oklahoma City to Kansas City to St. Louis look to be in line for some bad icing. For me, anything over .25" is bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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