Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Now, the 0z CMC has a good track w light qpf. It is more suppressed and weaker. It will be interesting to see the Euro roll with its version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 A bit concerning the Canadian and UK are significantly weaker. Need to see the euro on board for something more significant. Still a LONG way to go, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, tnweathernut said: A bit concerning the Canadian and UK are significantly weaker. Need to see the euro on board for something more significant. Still a LONG way to go, I prefer weaker. Strength on the GFS is what causes it to run I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 The 0z GFS is also portraying a big -NAO from hour 234 to 312 at least. Big changes during the last two runs at LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: I prefer weaker. Strength on the GFS is what causes it to run I-40. Yeah probably poorly worded, but pockets of light snow and flurries would be a disappointment...lol. I don't want it closed, but positive tilt with an inverted trough would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Yeah probably poorly worded, but pockets of light snow and flurries would be a disappointment...lol. I don't want it closed, but positive tilt with an inverted trough would be great. I'll take a middle ground between the two but so would we all I'm sure. That said, the Canadian spit out 1-3 with a few 4 inch areas basically Valley wide. Better than a rainer or ice solution imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 0z GFS is also portraying a big -NAO from hour 234 to 312 at least. Big changes during the last two runs at LR. Blocking never breaks as fast as models want to break it but it always seems to take longer to establish than they want it to as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Day 7 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 The 0z GFS is also portraying a big -NAO from hour 234 to 312 at least. Big changes during the last two runs at LR.well our nao that's supposed to be helping with the late week system keeps trending weaker and weaker. so at this point I have no faith in any modeled nao blockSent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 16 minutes ago, bhamwx205 said: well our nao that's supposed to be helping with the late week system keeps trending weaker and weaker. so at this point I have no faith in any modeled nao block Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk TBD on how this current block helps or doesn't. Fine line between a big block that suppresses the system and one that lets everything cut. But there is definitely a block. It has also been tough to get a -NAO lately, but it is currently negative on the NCEP site. The -NAO has verified this time. With the current AMO cycle it is just tough to get it to stay there. Without it, this storm would not be a slider. I think the bigger problem for you all to the south is the cold air just isn't making it as far south as modeled with or without blocking. Mr. Bob noted that before. Which model are you referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Here is a graphic I put together showing the past 4 runs of the GFS at the 500mb level. The trend today has been for a deeper and stronger vort max in the western US. The 0z run is the most robust and even has the shortwave tilted negative a little bit. The 6z and 12z runs didn't have this feature at all. Tonight's run was similar to the juicy run from a few days ago. I think the critical point for us will be when and how the shortwave passes(if it is still actually there) through the Rocky Mountain region. I still wouldn't take each run that seriously until we can get some consistency for a suppressed storm or a juicier one, but it does seem that trend is for a more robust system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 46 minutes ago, bhamwx205 said: well our nao that's supposed to be helping with the late week system keeps trending weaker and weaker. so at this point I have no faith in any modeled nao block Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Here is the latest GFS NAO analyzed and predicted chart. It appears the NAO has verified even lower than recent GFS model runs. I would post Euro data, but I don't think we are allowed to post WxBell Euro data. Their NAO numbers differ slightly from NCEP...could just be one is more recently updated. Not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Day 7 GEFSThat's really as good as it gets this far out. 16 members have at least a widespread 2"+ and 8 members have at least 6"+ over the Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 The biggest difference in that run happened early on. At 18z there was a weak HP sliding over the system in the Pac NW that pushed it further south at the start. At 00z that feature wasn't there. It caused he system to be 200 miles or so further north. It dropped south as much on 00z as it did on 18z but started from a much less favorable spot and was never able get low enough before it strengthen. That one tiny feature early caused the track to be hundreds of miles different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 hour ago, Mrwolf1972 said: 06 gfs back to a southern route I'd be ok with a in between the para and the gfs route would give us a better snow fall at least theres no warm nose as of this run to hurt the snowfall . A little north of the panhandle of fla would put all the valley im heavy snow within a 100 miles difference could change a lot at least we know no there should be a storm just got to see the exact track. gfes model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 26 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: gfes model. The 6z run of the GFS is almost a carbon copy of the 18Z; I would not trust it honestly right now; the solution seems to lie somewhere in between, it is showing too much variability, the 00z run showed heavy snow across KY; which neither the 18Z yesterday or the 6Z today indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: The 6z run of the GFS is almost a carbon copy of the 18Z; I would not trust it honestly right now; the solution seems to lie somewhere in between, it is showing too much variability, the 00z run showed heavy snow across KY; which neither the 18Z yesterday or the 6Z today indicated. id take in between would put the biggest snow right thru Tennessee . the gfs para is good to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 17 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: id take in between would put the biggest snow right thru Tennessee . the gfs para is good to. Yes I agree wholeheartedly living just north of Nashville that would give us something compareable to last January but I would like to see a few consecutive runs showing at least similar solutions before signing off on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 new gfs para still showing the storm no warm nose all snow not as much as the 0z run but still looking good the storm rides the gulf then goes to the Carolinas with secondary low off the coast keeping fingers crossed and toes got the weekend off to hopefully watch it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 hour ago, Mrwolf1972 said: id take in between would put the biggest snow right thru Tennessee . the gfs para is good to. The new DGEX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: The new DGEX? Ha ha ha, the Para is like is like Opra.... You get a foot of snow, and your get a foot of snow, and you get a foot of snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: The new DGEX? are you asking if the gfs para is gonna be like the dgex models I don't think it goes to that extreme. I mean the gfs and the gfs para are almost the same on this last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: The new DGEX? Could be but at this point just as likely as the latest run giving areas well south of TN over 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 15 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: Could be but at this point just as likely as the latest run giving areas well south of TN over 6" I like the position of the 6Z with heavier snow axis south, we've all seen many times within the last 3 days of modeling a shift north and northwest with precip. Also if I were to take the GFS features verbatim, I would actually bump a lot of the northern totals up a bit as again we often see undermodeled northern precip shields on these storms. All and all I love the 6Z and would happily take more 6Z GFS runs. Not to mention northern areas of that run are not going to be 10:1 as Tropical Tidbits shows in totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: I like the position of the 6Z with heavier snow axis south, we've all seen many times within the last 3 days of modeling a shift north and northwest with precip. Also if I were to take the GFS features verbatim, I would actually bump a lot of the northern totals up a bit as again we often see undermodeled northern precip shields on these storms. All and all I love the 6Z and would happily take more 6Z GFS runs. Not to mention northern areas of that run are not going to be 10:1 as Tropical Tidbits shows in totals. Hey guys, let's start throwing these posts in the dedicated thread started by John. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, tnweathernut said: Hey guys, let's start throwing these posts in the dedicated thread started by John. Thanks! Ha yep was just getting ready to delete that one. Moved it over to the storm thread I didn't realize there was one yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Hey guys, let's start throwing these posts in the dedicated thread started by John. Thanks! Thanks,didn't even notice it until you said something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 SOI reached it's highest mark this Nina season with a ridge passing trough the French Polynesia,not bad though, up to +36.i'm not posting no more in the Nina thread,will continue though as soon as the short wave moves out and will start a severe thread.Would like to see what the weeklies show,believe you'll see some cold air into the Great Lakes,possibly into the Valley towards the end of the month on the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: SOI reached it's highest mark this Nina season with a ridge passing trough the French Polynesia,not bad though, up to +36.i'm not posting no more in the Nina thread,will continue though as soon as the short wave moves out and will start a severe thread.Would like to see what the weeklies show,believe you'll see some cold air into the Great Lakes,possibly into the Valley towards the end of the month on the weeklies. Yep...good to see things firing again. The MJO has been a pretty solid indicator this year. I will take phases 5.6,7 followed by 8,2.1 during late Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Euro weeklies update...@500 w1: nationwide trough w2: positive tilted trough in sw Canada / ridge from the southwest to northeast w3: trough retrogrades in GOA / most of NA w AN heights / AK cold w4: big changes...AN heights over the Hudson Bay trough east/ridge west... w5: huge PNA ridge into AK...trough east/ridge west...BN heights in east w6: continued massive PNA ridge...trough east/ridge west...BN heights in east part of week 7:. Same pattern as wk5 w deepening eastern trough...big cold signal Overall..IMO a good run at 500mb. 2m temps often don't correlate on the weeklies, but will try to add those to this post later. In a nutshell, very hostile winter pattern coming up after this week. Good thing is it looks to last only 10-14 days and is more of a transition to an eastern trough/western ridge pattern. The western trough retrogrades into the GOA and that is the beginning of the end of this current pattern. Again, a great rule is a pattern generally runs 30-45 days, sometimes 60 such as this. Aftter week 3 no hint of a SER. Wk3 there is barely any western trough as we go zonal that week. Nice run of the weeklies if you can live with weeks 2-3 being warm. Last full week of Jan begins a very good stretch of winter after a two week ridge. Definite pattern change depicted...and hopefully to the good. Only question is how much of NA gets scoured of cold air during the warm-up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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