Met1985 Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 6 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Pacific ocean analysis is solid from the mid-latitudes to the tropics. I like the front loaded Dec-Jan with a milder Feb. March I would just copy Feb. SER and Rockies trough going into spring tees up severe wx. Oh wait, everyone is interested in snow... Caution is advised on the AO which is a shorter-term signal than the above two. I have already declared the snowpack signal worthless without pressure; and, it will not become apparent until November. Solar cycle is weak, but it may take another year to get buried in the min. Northwest flow implied by some of the charts looks good for mountain snow, but dry in the valleys. I figure SER is a secondary pattern, perhaps more often in late winter. Key for snow would be to pick up an open Gulf while still cold, in transition between the two. Just plz do not be ice. Bottom line: It will be colder than last winter, a pretty easy call LOL. As usual in the South, big snow will require some luck with the storm track. Thanks for your thoughts. Always interesting seeing what you think of the upcoming pattern. I like a NW flow myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/research/Winter2016-17Forecast.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 Thank you Met. Yeah that RaleighWx discussion seems solid. I like the month by month trends, Dec cold Feb milder. My overall is slightly warmer South but their overall concept looks great. Caution on the Siberian snow without pressure. However it is starting to trend high there, which is bullish. Only issue is first Siberian HP seems to have dumped into China. One of the few LP areas is far eastern Siberia. See if that translates into an Aleutian low / +PNA pattern downstream. I still think it will be a few weeks. CFS is on fire. We'll see if the Euro weeklies keep the cold mid-month flip, or punts to mild a while longer. November 2 edit: Griteater posts a solid forecast in the Southeast States forum. One can debate Jan/Feb (I am reverse) but his overall charts match mine very closely. Note we are plenty colder than last year even if slightly mild. Hoping for snow anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 Read Grits forecast on the main page,just checked out the SE thread.It's well thought out and a good read.Hope he's wrong about Jan though..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 15, 2016 Author Share Posted November 15, 2016 Generally that PDO look would off-set La Nina effects this winter and normally when that look happens during an El Nino we'd be colder than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 CFS,Start of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 1, 2016 Author Share Posted December 1, 2016 The Euro has been spitting out some nasty cold for the area. The EPS pretty much has us below normal for the next 2 weeks. The CPC has no red on it's map for the 8-14 day period for the first time in over 3 years. The weeklies were below normal for the next month when they ran Monday. http://www.climatedepot.com/2016/11/30/climatologist-dr-roger-pielke-sr-i-cannot-recall-last-time-i-have-seen-such-a-cold-anomaly-forecast-across-almost-entire-usa/ The image is the euro map from a couple days ago from the story above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 There does seem to be a lot of attention turning toward this. Article in the WaPo as well... https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/11/30/frigid-air-mass-building-in-alaska-poised-to-spill-into-u-s-next-week/?utm_term=.cfa39dad362d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 Probably get hung up out West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 12Z GFS is looking good only out to 180H. Next thursday/friday 2M temps highs around freezing. Edit: Scratch that out to 198 now and highs in the 20s for some. Really... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 48 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: 12Z GFS is looking good only out to 180H. Next thursday/friday 2M temps highs around freezing. Edit: Scratch that out to 198 now and highs in the 20s for some. Really... It is amazing to watch the swings on the LR GFS. No surprise but still wild. Repetitive, reloading Arctic fronts on the 12z GFS Op while yesterday it had an eastern ridge and torch. Big time battle w -EPO/-WPO vs -PNA. Though the 12z operational had a +PNA by the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 2 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Probably get hung up out West. That's how that usually seems to play out. But who knows. I mean who would have thought Vandy would beat Tennessee, Georgia, and Ole Miss but lose to SC, KY, and Mizzou. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 1, 2016 Author Share Posted December 1, 2016 The Euro is out slow today due to a power outage, but through 168 the cold is coming like a frigid steam roller. While it's highly volatile, the long range GFS is spitting out December of 1989 cold rolling into Southern Canada and the upper midwest by the end of it's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 1, 2016 Author Share Posted December 1, 2016 192 came in as I was posting that. Looking very cold in a week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: 192 came in as I was posting that. Looking very cold in a week or so. 19 BNA ON THIS FRAME Edit:Believe that would be the coldest temps we've seen all year including last winter if that were to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 1, 2016 Author Share Posted December 1, 2016 GFS OP builds a huge -AO and pushes the polar vortex well south. 30+ degrees below normal temps push into the upper midwest by mid month. 18Z will probably have a positive AO with the way it changes around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 12z EPS is out late...but it is cold. I can't post maps since I am on a pay site....but it is impressive through d15 on the mean. Bout as good as one could ask for early winter. What a run for cold. I will give the middle and west TN folks the honor of discussing the control. Hey, it is one run...but after this hellish summer, finally nice to see winter. Like I said, seasonal is good for me. BN is a bonus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 33 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z EPS is out late...but it is cold. I can't post maps since I am on a pay site....but it is impressive through d15 on the mean. Bout as good as one could ask for in early winter. What a run for cold. I will give the middle and west TN folks the honor of discussing the control. Hey, it is one run...but after this hellish summer, finally nice to see winter. Like I said, seasonal is good for me. BN is a bonus! Yeah a great look. Should also be great for upslope snow for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z EPS is out late...but it is cold. I can't post maps since I am on a pay site....but it is impressive through d15 on the mean. Bout as good as one could ask for in early winter. What a run for cold. I will give the middle and west TN folks the honor of discussing the control. Hey, it is one run...but after this hellish summer, finally nice to see winter. Like I said, seasonal is good for me. BN is a bonus! Control is a nice over running event 6+" I-40 north,2-3 middle,and much lesser the further S you go.That's for west and central Valley.Probably be gone next run though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 GFS has several interesting looks over the next 10 days or so, hilariously inconsistent in the longer range as I figured. It's literally 70 degrees warmer in the same time frame in North Dakota than it was 12 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 17 hours ago, jaxjagman said: 19 BNA ON THIS FRAME Edit:Believe that would be the coldest temps we've seen all year including last winter if that were to verify Nashville got down to 12 twice last January. Many of the outlying areas had single digits a couple of mornings. I'm not sure what to think of pre-Christmas cold. I've kind of gotten used to warm and dry Decembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 19 minutes ago, Coach B said: Nashville got down to 12 twice last January. Many of the outlying areas had single digits a couple of mornings. I'm not sure what to think of pre-Christmas cold. I've kind of gotten used to warm and dry Decembers. Yeah you're right,it did get that cold didn't it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 The GFS jumped on the Plateau/Southern Kentucky and west snow bandwagon. Northern Middle gets a good shot next week on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 very active pattern ahead. I like the week of the 12th Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 There some signals for some severe weather mid month.The Control which did rather well in the long range with the last outbreak has been showing it now for several runs as well as the CFS and even the teleconnections.Not saying it will happen or even the same magnitude as the last,just something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 3, 2016 Author Share Posted December 3, 2016 Goodness, the 00z was just wall to wall winter in the mid to long range. I can't in any world imagine the two miller A's in 72 hours, but then again I had 6 inches on a Wednesday and roughly 8 more on a Friday earlier this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 3, 2016 Author Share Posted December 3, 2016 The GFS is off the charts with insane snow amounts and frigid cold in the long range. It's weird warm blips are coming less frequently. The heavy snow event it is currently spawning sends temps into the 10s for highs with lows well below 0 by December 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Something to watch...d8 12z Euro does have an event that impacts I-40 north for the length of the state. Slider. Long ways out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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