Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 14 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: I am so over the GFS, by midnight it will either be gone or rain I hear you, and generally agree....but I have been honestly surprised this look has not yielded more precip overrunning the cold. The 12z Euro was close as I mentioned earlier. As I mentioned maybe yesterday, there is a crazy eddy in the GOA. It is causing havoc, not to mention the models building that positively tilted trough out there which is getting more muted with each run. Once things align with that transient double block, then we can trust the models a bit more. But this is not like it is way out there...precip is on west TN's door at 120. So, the possibility should be there regardless of the 18z run. Other models have been close. Like I said, I just laughed when I saw it. The models are now seeing energy coming out of the Rocky Mountain West, but are keying on different pieces. Timing and actual energy keyed upon...seems truly undecided even at this time frame. We are now under five days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I hear you, and generally agree....but I have been honestly surprised this look has not yielded more precip overrunning the cold. The 12z Euro was close as I mentioned earlier. As I mentioned maybe yesterday, there is a crazy eddy in the GOA. It is causing havoc, not to mention the models building that positively tilted trough out there which is getting more muted with each run. Once things align with that transient double block, then we can trust the models a bit more. But this is not like it is way out there...precip is on west TN's door at 120. So, the possibility should be there regardless of the 18z run. Other models have been close. Like I said, I just laughed when I saw it. The models are now seeing energy coming out of the Rocky Mountain West, but are keying on different pieces. Timing and actual energy keyed upon...seems truly undecided even at this time frame. We are now under five days. Well, in reality, we all want solutions to things, including the weather, asap but sometimes, as perhaps in this case, it does not occur until within 4 or 5 days of event. Patience is the key I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 hour ago, weathertree4u said: Well, in reality, we all want solutions to things, including the weather, asap but sometimes, as perhaps in this case, it does not occur until within 4 or 5 days of event. Patience is the key I suppose Wise, wise words. The entire 500mb pattern on the 18z is different for the better. I won't delve into it since it is just one run. And as you say, it could be gone. Lots of moving parts for the models to sort out. Having the cold in place in front of any potential systems is a plus FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 We're still in that place where a tiny change 3000 miles away and 6-12 hours in timing has massive impacts down the road. Its getting to a point where clarity should come fairly soon. You'd think that it'd be close enough to at least know a storm is happening or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, John1122 said: We're still in that place where a tiny change 3000 miles away and 6-12 hours in timing has massive impacts down the road. Its getting to a point where clarity should come fairly soon. You'd think that it'd be close enough to at least know a storm is happening or not. It "seemed" that the storm track was slightly suppressed this run (edit) in CA and that a piece of energy was allowed to sneak under that eddy in the GOA. But yes, seems at this range we would know if a storm was happening somewhere in the SE. I am reminded of so many storms that were nudged by a vortex in the northern stream. Also, good words by you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 well hopefully the next two runs of the GFS and the rest of the models will come into agreement so we can actually have an idea of what's going to happen this coming weekend I mean I know some of the other models have showed the Storm still there just in differences so maybe the GFS lost it for a few days and just now finding it where it is and where it's going to go and hopefully it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: It "seemed" that the storm track was slightly suppressed this run and that a piece of energy was allowed to sneak under that eddy in the GOA. But yes, seems at this range we would know if a storm was happening somewhere in the SE. I am reminded of so many storms that were nudged by a vortex in the northern stream. Also, good words by you. I appreciate all you guys. You all bring reasoned discourse here and make it easy to learn more about what causes what to happen down the road. That said, one of you guys should start a thread. This could be impacting the region inside of 5 days. I think of this thread as a longer lead/overall pattern disco. But once we have a specific storm within a short lead I don't mind keeping the disco in an individual thread. I actually look back at our winter event threads over the spring and summer quite frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Look for an uptick in the gefs members that key on the piece of energy shown on the OP. If we see more members with that robust piece coming from the west I will feel better about where this could possibly go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, tnweathernut said: Look for an uptick in the gefs members that key on the piece of energy shown on the OP. If we see more members with that robust piece coming from the west I will feel better about where this could possibly go. At the very least, there is something to track. I am sure that all of us can recall winter seasons when there was zilch to even discuss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 GEFS sniffing out event one and two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Lots of beefy snow members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 if I'm reading these Maps right around the same time that the GFS model is showing the storm in the south towards us it looks like there's moisture pick up in that area throughout the time that the storms supposed to be going through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 00z GFS looks quite a bit bit further north with the western LP than 18z so far. See if.that translates to a apps runner out east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, John1122 said: 00z GFS looks quite a bit bit further north with the western LP than 18z so far. See if.that translates to a apps runner out east. Definitely a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Gonna cut or run the Apps. Maybe a bit of front end action on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Big 1042 high north keeps it from cutting. Presses cold into Kentucky as the storm rides I-40. Clown with have 12+ over Kentucky most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, John1122 said: 00z GFS looks quite a bit bit further north with the western LP than 18z so far. See if.that translates to a apps runner out east. A slp in Louisian on 18z and in southwest Kansas on 0z. Just a 500 mile placement from one run to the next. In all honesty, we are back to a few key points. The hp was trailing instead of over the top. That is not a warm storm. That could be ice if it moves in quickly enough. We literally went from nothing to a cutter in twelve hours. There is no reason to believe this over the last few runs. However, it makes more sense than the suppression business the models have been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Check that. Guessed wrong on where that slp was heading, Has a little Miller B in it. Primary goes west of the Apps and then secondary forms southeast of that...sort of. Then...boom. Big storm for the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Like the run to be honest. 1040+ high over the top with enough cold to have snow falling 125 miles north of the low track tells me the storm is tracking too far north given that set up or that the snow line would be further north with more ice than is being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Well, John. We have a storm! Looks similar to those Euro control runs. With that slamming into fresh Arctic air, I am concerned it(the cold) does not get out of the Valley in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Trend is for a stronger vort. It stayed closed/stronger and never got the chance to dive as much. Keep it open and it's likely further south/colder. I think it's good we have a stronger system showing on modeling. Always a tight rope act for winter in the south.. Stronger vs strung out mess that is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Kentucky was indeed buried into oblivion that run. State line appears a sharp cut off. The Low may track the way it was shown, but the surface results won't be what it showed imo. I've never seen a rain/snow line that close to the center of a low in this part of the country that I can recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 This is a signature for ice. NE TN barely gets above freezing. The slides below show the cold getting trapped. Very little warm nose. The other thing is that if that low forms over the SE lee of the Apps and turns slightly, it could pivot over E TN. First slide is the surface reflection. Second is six hours later w temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Hoping the ensembles are bullish on a storm and are south of the OP. My guess is we still have a fair amount that say "what storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: This is a signature for ice. NE TN barely gets above freezing. The slides below show the cold getting trapped. Very little warm nose. The other thing is that if that low forms over the SE lee of the Apps and turns slightly, it could pivot over E TN. First slide is the surface reflection. Second is six hours later w temps... Yeah no doubt abut that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: This is a signature for ice. NE TN barely gets above freezing. The slides below show the cold getting trapped. Very little warm nose. The other thing is that if that low forms over the SE lee of the Apps and turns slightly, it could pivot over E TN. First slide is the surface reflection. Second is six hours later w temps... Yeah no doubt abut that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Sharp snow gradient. 3-6 inches on most of the KY border counties to practically 0 a tier south of border areas. This seems to be about as far north as the storm will track. Somewhere between this and the central Gulf looks to be the current model window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Should actually be a warm nose,need this to go well south,not sure how far south you want though right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Canadian is well down into the Gulf but I think a little north of it's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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