2016-2017 Great Tennessee Valley Winter Discussion

[jaxjagman]

14 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

 

I'll take e3 for 1000 Alex.


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Sounds good to me..lol

[tnweathernut]

The full 16 day 0z GEFS snowfall. Clicking through the days and panels, there are multiple opportunities showing.

[tnweathernut]

Even some I-20 and south potential it appears.

[jaxjagman]

Nice wave 2 action

[Reb]

 

[Mrwolf1972]

Is the European on board with the last runs?

[John1122]

1 hour ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Is the European on board with the last runs?

It was suppressed and cold again vs the 12z rainer.

[John1122]

GFS looking a lot different so far.

[John1122]

Another run of the GFS, another vastly different solution so far. Wave didn't hang out in the west, streaked light snow into a good portion of Tennessee, especially south of I-40. Something looks to be getting going in the Gulf at hour 162 with light snow from Knoxville to Memphis and the rain/snow line near the TN/Alabama border.  168 it's light snow from Tri to Chattanooga. Whereas at 00z a nice storm was in the Texas panhandle sending moisture into the banana high and it's locked in cold air. By 174 it's ending as the low is getting going off the Carolinas with moderate snow developing in Western Carolina. 

Looking at 1-3 inches with isolated higher totals south of 40 and I-81 and East on this run. I've not seen the Euro but read that it also looked this way and spread light snows across the area. 

[John1122]

1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Good  thing it stays cold and we still got 6 days to wiggle hope it slows somewhat on runs to come but keep close to same track and I'll be happy 

Nothing to do but he patient and hope. It keeps keying on different features and that's why we keep having very different outcomes and the storm is showing a roughly 2 day difference in timing according what feature it picks. Probably 48-72 hours more of potentially wild/wide swings in timing and track at the minimum.

[Matthew70]

Just now, Mrwolf1972 said:

this am's DGEX snow model.

Never understood why this model even exist anymore.  Maybe there is a reason I do not know?  This map has 0% chance.  Which all of us already know.  Brings a lol almost every time.

[Mrwolf1972]

11 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Never understood why this model even exist anymore.  Maybe there is a reason I do not know?  This map has 0% chance.  Which all of us already know.  Brings a lol almost every time.

just happened to come across it lol

[PowellVolz]

Never understood why this model even exist anymore.  Maybe there is a reason I do not know?  This map has 0% chance.  Which all of us already know.  Brings a lol almost every time.

Anytime you're feeling down about the weather just pull up this mods snow maps.


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[tnweathernut]

While others are generally encouraged this morning in the south I am not as encouraged as I was the last several days.  There is still a large spread in potential options, but seeing the UK and EURO maps from last night, along with the GEFS/EPS, leaves me thinking suppression and cold and dry is the largest possibility.  

I know, I know, cold first bc without it it can't snow.... up until such a dramatic shift I was 80% confident moisture wouldn't be a problem, now I am a LOT less confident.  Can't have a winter system without both.

it appears a burgeoning southern ridge will either cause the shortwave in question to dig, bending the flow in a positive direction or send it into the southwest and temporarily cutting it off from advancing east until we warm and rain (when it finally does come out).

Going to be crucial how the southern stream advances and times with the southern ridging. 12z will certainly give us more clues.

[Carvers Gap]

I understand that posting one sentence posts happens sometimes, especially during play-by-play or asking a question.  But if you post a graphic, there usually needs to be some text accompanying it.  In other words, there needs to be a "why" you are posting it.  It does not have to be a thesis either (Not talking about Reb.  Good to see you posting, Reb.)  Jon on the SE is a great example and so is tnweathenut on our board to name a couple.  For complicated items like the  stratosphere or weather over Asia, we all need some explanation.  Some of those graphics add a ton of information, but don't assume we all understand it.  The stratosphere and wx in Asia are areas I can improve among others.  The TN forum traditionally has great, in-depth discussion.  We won't have more posts than other regions, but the quality of our discussions rivals any forum.  I realize  the EPS went poof with the shortwave late next week, but if it gets within five days...it needs a thread IMO.  And I am not one to be picky about the rules here...it should be a place where folks can relax and talk about a great hobby.  One sentence posts are needed sometimes.  Sometimes pics don't need discussion. I can be just as guilty.  But in general it helps to have some discussion just to add to the conversation.  If you are new, this is not to discourage posting.  I didn't know much at all when I found this forum, and compared to our mets...I don't know much at all even now.  So, don't be afraid to post.  But add your thoughts and don't be afraid to be wrong.  Especially, don't be afraid to ask questions.  A good question is always worth more than a truckload of knowledge.  We need more folks from big markets in the forum area, so I don't want to discourage folks from posting...just add your thoughts even if basic in nature.

[John1122]

31 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

While others are generally encouraged this morning in the south I am not as encouraged as I was the last several days.  There is still a large spread in potential options, but seeing the UK and EURO maps from last night, along with the GEFS/EPS, leaves me thinking suppression and cold and dry is the largest possibility.  

I know, I know, cold first bc without it it can't snow.... up until such a dramatic shift I was 80% confident moisture wouldn't be a problem, now I am a LOT less confident.  Can't have a winter system without both.

it appears a burgeoning southern ridge will either cause the shortwave in question to dig, bending the flow in a positive direction or send it into the southwest and temporarily cutting it off from advancing east until we warm and rain (when it finally does come out).

Going to be crucial how the southern stream advances and times with the southern ridging. 12z will certainly give us more clues.

I really have no feel for this either way, much like the models. The thing I'm most sure of is that it'll be cold and a system of some strength will go by south of the area.  Then the question becomes will it be cold enough, how strong  and how far south of the area? 

I can see anything from a system tracking from east Texas to the Apps to a system tracking from Mexico to central Florida and 200 miles off the SC coast. 

It's a crap shoot at this point and I'm trying not to get overly excited about the big ones or overly discouraged by the small ones. As long as we don't suddenly see a Kansas to Michigan track become a trend I'm somewhat satisfied with where the region sits.  

[jaxjagman]

21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I understand that posting one sentence posts happens sometimes, especially during play-by-play or asking a question.  But if you post a graphic, there usually needs to be some text accompanying it.  In other words, there needs to be a "why" you are posting it.  It does not have to be a thesis either (Not talking about Reb.  Good to see you posting, Reb.)  Jon on the SE is a great example and so is tnweathenut on our board to name a couple.  For complicated items like the  stratosphere or weather over Asia, we all need some explanation.  Some of those graphics add a ton of information, but don't assume we all understand it.  The stratosphere and wx in Asia are areas I can improve among others.  The TN forum traditionally has great, in-depth discussion.  We won't have more posts than other regions, but the quality of our discussions rivals any forum.  I realize  the EPS went poof with the shortwave late next week, but if it gets within five days...it needs a thread IMO.  And I am not one to be picky about the rules here...it should be a place where folks can relax and talk about a great hobby.  One sentence posts are needed sometimes.  Sometimes pics don't need discussion. I can be just as guilty.  But in general it helps to have some discussion just to add to the conversation.  If you are new, this is not to discourage posting.  I didn't know much at all when I found this forum, and compared to our mets...I don't know much at all even now.  So, don't be afraid to post.  But add your thoughts and don't be afraid to be wrong.  Especially, don't be afraid to ask questions.  A good question is always worth more than a truckload of knowledge.  We need more folks from big markets in the forum area, so I don't want to discourage folks from posting...just add your thoughts even if basic in nature.

Damn,you can say my name.So who died and left you in charge?

[jaxjagman]

Crappie jet and these systems are getting sheared out,so far anyways

 

[tnweathernut]

Jax, I don't think he's referring just to you, but we are all occasionally post a graphic or one liner without much additional to go along with it. (though sometimes no explanation is needed).

I will try and do better with that because it helps others learn (though I am sure there are those who just want to look at a pretty map and find out if it's going to storm or snow).  I really do think our subforum is the best on the board.

I'd like to learn from some of the graphics you post.  I just don't look at Asia or read about how storms (troughs and ridges there) affect our weather here.  Guessing the lag time is a couple of weeks and there is a lot that goes into projecting the weather downstream (particularly for the southeast)??

[Mrwolf1972]

l

9 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Crappie jet and these systems are getting sheared out,so far anyways

 

yep the storm totally goes south of us and misses the state entirely hope that was just a bad run we still have time to get better results the high needs to be higher I think . hope the ensembles and the euro says different .

[Carvers Gap]

34 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Damn,you can say my name.So who died and left you in charge?

Jax, take it as a compliment that you post some topics completely over my head.  You are a great poster.  The Nina thread is a great source of information - prob one of the best threads of the year as it stayed on topic..  I don't think anyone will accuse either one of us as sugar-coating things.    I went back and looked at some of my own posts...I am just as guilty.   If we are going to grow our forum(winter is a great time), we need to speak in terms that new folks can understand and show them how to post.  Yeah, I don't like the policing idea either...I hate that type of stuff.  I would probably be pissed as well.  But I have seen forums totally overwhelmed by folks who won't play by the simplest of rules - comment not directed towards you.  So, I get your point.  Things can always be said more politely, but that is not a strength of mine.  I have zero power to censor anything you say.  So, post away...but know you are a leader here and folks watch what you do.

[tnweathernut]

You can see it trying at 500 to bend the flow. Not much of a piece of energy, but the ridging behind it helps carve a trough just a little too late for the TN Valley. Flow is fast so it can't slow down. IF the ridging is just a little taller and further west, the flow would back a little more and there would be more potential for a wider area.  It's really not too far away from being something, but my concern is suppression and sheared out energy in this fast flow.

[jaxjagman]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Jax, take it as a compliment that you post some topics completely over my head.  You are a great poster.  The Nina thread is a great source of information - prob one of the best threads of the year as it stayed on topic..  I don't think anyone will accuse either one of us as sugar-coating things.    I went back and looked at some of my own posts...I am just as guilty.   If we are going to grow our forum(winter is a great time), we need to speak in terms that new folks can understand and show them how to post.  Yeah, I don't like the policing idea either...I hate that type of stuff.  I would probably be pissed as well.  But I have seen forums totally overwhelmed by folks who won't play by the simplest of rules.  So, I get your point.  Things can always be said more politely, but that is not a strength of mine.  I have zero power to censor anything you say.  So, post away...but know you are a leader here and folks watch what you do.

Well,i'm no expert by any means.But i see your point.So let's move on,as far as i'm concerned this is done and over

[John1122]

Much as I posted above, tracks are still in a wide window. GFS weak and suppressed, GGEM is more amped and an Apps runner that scores from Cumberland Gap SW to Memphis. With the Nash/Clarksville/Dyer areas being in the nice 3-5 inch range. 

[Mrwolf1972]

7 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Much as I posted above, tracks are still in a wide window. GFS weak and suppressed, GGEM is more amped and an Apps runner that scores from Cumberland Gap SW to Memphis. With the Nash/Clarksville/Dyer areas being in the nice 3-5 inch range. 

gefs takes snow across the state 1-5 inches most in nc.

[Carvers Gap]

The LR outcomes of the GFS have been wildly erratic.  I think with the extreme cold air in place in Canada, the models are struggling.  What I suspect, as I posted about yesterday, is a big pattern change is on the horizon.  I am hoping it is like the weeklies that had a brief warm-up during week 3 and then settled into a trough for the eastern half of the country for weeks 4-6.  But that is only one option.  In 1989, when the cold broke it was gone for good.  In 95-96, the snow trumped the cold.   If I remember correctly(lived in Knoxville at the time),we had bouts of cold but winter was not remarkable in terms of cold when DJF were averaged together.  But it snowed like crazy from I-40 north.  It would seem the models are struggling w the Arctic boundary in the short term, and it is creating big swings in the LR.  A good example is the 12z...has lower heights over the top and higher underneath at 500mb.  Almost the opposite of 6z and 0z.  What the models seem to be trying to do is to "decide" how to kick the trough out of the West.  It has a ton of implications near term as some runs want to eject the entire trough...while others simply center the trough in the middle of the country...and still others just bleed the cold eastward.  That first scenario amplifies the entire pattern.  The second scenario seems to reinforce the cold over time.  The third is one where energy seems to cut as there is no reinforcing cold to the north.  Either way, most models/runs then follow the storm with a ridge.  Some runs lock it in for a week or so...others are progressive.  Then, there is not a hugely recognizable pattern after d12.  No to be unexpected at that range, but not a ton of agreement at 500mb at high latitudes...but that western trough is not locked like it is right now.  So, this pattern might progress to the EPS idea of a trough(east) in about three weeks.  It might be that the western trough retrogrades into AK and we go zonal.  But it seems like we are entering a transitional time frame with no clear indication of the new pattern...As for the storm next Saturday, still a ton of time.  

[tnweathernut]

14 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

gefs takes snow across the state 1-5 inches most in nc.

Thanks John, a visual representation for those who want to see it.

[jaxjagman]

Alot of moving parts that could disrupt the pattern it seems, comparing last night great run to today crap shoot.

 

 

[Mrwolf1972]

I was wondering why the gfs para hasn't ran since 12 yesterday and if anyone gets the euro results if they will please post them im a novice with weather wanted to be a meteorologist all my life love big snow storms i.e. from Ohio originally and love tracking sever weather. Sorry if anything I post is wrong or annoying thanks in advance.

[John1122]

50 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The LR outcomes of the GFS have been wildly erratic.  I think with the extreme cold air in place in Canada, the models are struggling.  What I suspect, as I posted about yesterday, is a big pattern change is on the horizon.  I am hoping it is like the weeklies that had a brief warm-up during week 3 and then settled into a trough for the eastern half of the country for weeks 4-6.  But that is only one option.  In 1989, when the cold broke it was gone for good.  In 95-96, the snow trumped the cold.   If I remember correctly(lived in Knoxville at the time),we had bouts of cold but winter was not remarkable in terms of cold when DJF were averaged together.  But it snowed like crazy from I-40 north.  It would seem the models are struggling w the Arctic boundary in the short term, and it is creating big swings in the LR.  A good example is the 12z...has lower heights over the top and higher underneath at 500mb.  Almost the opposite of 6z and 0z.  What the models seem to be trying to do is to "decide" how to kick the trough out of the West.  It has a ton of implications near term as some runs want to eject the entire trough...while others simply center the trough in the middle of the country...and still others just bleed the cold eastward.  That first scenario amplifies the entire pattern.  The second scenario seems to reinforce the cold over time.  The third is one where energy seems to cut as there is no reinforcing cold to the north.  Either way, most models/runs then follow the storm with a ridge.  Some runs lock it in for a week or so...others are progressive.  Then, there is not a hugely recognizable pattern after d12.  No to be unexpected at that range, but not a ton of agreement at 500mb at high latitudes...but that western trough is not locked like it is right now.  So, this pattern might progress to the EPS idea of a trough(east) in about three weeks.  It might be that the western trough retrogrades into AK and we go zonal.  But it seems like we are entering a transitional time frame with no clear indication of the new pattern...As for the storm next Saturday, still a ton of time.  

Heck, right now everything past D3 is moderately erratic. We've seen many times how the -EPO can be really stubborn about breaking down. So I could see it leading to reloads. I just wish it would move east and act as a +PNA as it did a few years ago when we were snowy and sub zero.