bhamwx205 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Models are coming back warmer today,trending a more wetter scenario than frozen.The control shift concerns me.It went from frozen to seeing a more strong cold front with thunder possibly,next Friday afternoonI honestly don't like the control . it flips over and over. look at the last 5 runs. big shifts in all directions . Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Models are coming back warmer today,trending a more wetter scenario than frozen.The control shift concerns me.It went from frozen to seeing a more strong cold front with thunder possibly,next Friday afternoonI honestly don't like the control . it flips over and over. look at the last 5 runs. big shifts in all directions . Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 The control is just a lower res op. It tends to show extreme versions of what's going to happen. It's prone to snow dumps at times too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Every model flips in this range.Maybe i over dramatized things to an extreme with the control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 But anyways,seems any model could be right by the WPC right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 57 minutes ago, John1122 said: The control is just a lower res op. It tends to show extreme versions of what's going to happen. It's prone to snow dumps at times too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 lol...this is a great run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 lol...this is a great run This is one roller coaster of a run lol!! Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G928A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 should cut up and not go out,we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Pretty sure this will be the best look we get. Holy crap that was a dream run.. Gulf runner with a banana high over the top and VERY cold before the storm. 10 out of 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Canadian 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Much colder ahead of the storm. The shortwave kicks out and deepens as it moves east and a surface low bombs out on the coast. What a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 gotta look at the text for fun,sure it will change again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z DEC31 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 00Z 31-DEC 1.3 -1.0 1023 78 44 563 544 SAT 06Z 31-DEC 1.7 4.0 1020 80 32 0.00 564 547 SAT 12Z 31-DEC 3.1 3.2 1019 74 99 0.01 562 547 SAT 18Z 31-DEC 4.2 1.7 1017 92 100 0.20 562 548 SUN 00Z 01-JAN 5.7 3.5 1017 96 99 0.13 563 550 SUN 06Z 01-JAN 6.6 4.1 1017 99 21 0.07 566 552 SUN 12Z 01-JAN 6.9 6.6 1018 99 21 0.02 569 554 SUN 18Z 01-JAN 8.5 8.7 1018 98 58 0.03 571 556 MON 00Z 02-JAN 10.5 8.6 1019 99 37 0.02 572 557 MON 06Z 02-JAN 10.9 11.2 1019 99 45 0.00 574 558 MON 12Z 02-JAN 12.1 11.1 1018 99 66 0.01 574 558 MON 18Z 02-JAN 17.9 12.4 1017 91 83 0.07 574 561 TUE 00Z 03-JAN 16.7 11.4 1011 97 95 0.33 571 561 TUE 06Z 03-JAN 16.8 9.8 1008 97 45 0.26 570 562 TUE 12Z 03-JAN 14.8 9.9 1011 97 7 0.03 569 560 TUE 18Z 03-JAN 13.4 5.6 1013 94 12 0.02 566 554 WED 00Z 04-JAN 7.5 3.9 1016 92 37 0.00 562 548 WED 06Z 04-JAN 0.9 0.4 1022 82 40 0.00 559 541 WED 12Z 04-JAN -2.1 -3.7 1024 71 40 0.00 555 536 WED 18Z 04-JAN 1.3 -6.4 1025 45 25 0.00 554 534 THU 00Z 05-JAN -1.7 -7.1 1025 57 31 0.00 553 533 THU 06Z 05-JAN -3.1 -5.7 1025 50 58 0.00 551 531 THU 12Z 05-JAN -2.3 -9.0 1025 42 99 0.00 548 529 THU 18Z 05-JAN 1.6 -10.9 1023 50 86 0.00 545 526 FRI 00Z 06-JAN -1.0 -11.5 1023 69 5 0.00 544 526 FRI 06Z 06-JAN -3.8 -12.2 1025 76 24 0.00 547 527 FRI 12Z 06-JAN -6.2 -10.5 1029 48 12 0.00 550 528 FRI 18Z 06-JAN 0.0 -8.2 1029 25 34 0.00 554 531 SAT 00Z 07-JAN -1.8 -5.8 1029 34 96 0.00 557 535 SAT 06Z 07-JAN -2.4 -4.8 1028 45 97 0.00 560 537 SAT 12Z 07-JAN -3.5 -3.4 1028 88 99 0.07 561 539 SAT 18Z 07-JAN -0.6 -0.1 1023 97 98 0.34 561 542 SUN 00Z 08-JAN -0.4 -1.4 1021 98 98 0.15 556 539 SUN 06Z 08-JAN -1.8 -1.1 1024 99 70 0.12 557 538 SUN 12Z 08-JAN -3.1 0.1 1027 99 6 0.00 562 541 SUN 18Z 08-JAN -0.8 3.1 1028 97 8 0.00 568 546 MON 00Z 09-JAN -1.2 5.2 1027 98 19 0.01 570 549 MON 06Z 09-JAN -3.1 7.3 1025 98 40 0.00 572 552 MON 12Z 09-JAN -3.8 8.2 1024 98 38 0.00 573 554 MON 18Z 09-JAN 1.1 9.0 1021 100 47 0.00 573 556 TUE 00Z 10-JAN 1.5 6.5 1019 100 62 0.01 572 557 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 Model madness, perfect, awful, perfect, middling, awful, perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 lol.some mixing maybe from the warm nose GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 00Z DEC31 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 00Z 31-DEC 1.2 -2.0 1024 76 44 565 545 SAT 06Z 31-DEC 0.2 2.9 1023 75 31 0.00 566 548 SAT 12Z 31-DEC 2.1 4.3 1022 70 57 0.00 565 547 SAT 18Z 31-DEC 3.8 1.9 1020 83 99 0.05 565 548 SUN 00Z 01-JAN 4.1 3.9 1019 97 99 0.11 567 551 SUN 06Z 01-JAN 5.4 6.7 1019 98 99 0.08 569 553 SUN 12Z 01-JAN 6.7 8.6 1019 99 57 0.06 572 556 SUN 18Z 01-JAN 8.9 9.2 1020 98 80 0.10 574 557 MON 00Z 02-JAN 9.5 9.3 1020 99 75 0.01 575 558 MON 06Z 02-JAN 10.1 10.9 1021 99 67 0.04 577 559 MON 12Z 02-JAN 11.4 11.0 1021 99 80 0.07 577 559 MON 18Z 02-JAN 14.8 11.2 1020 97 91 0.13 577 561 TUE 00Z 03-JAN 14.7 11.2 1016 98 75 0.03 575 562 TUE 06Z 03-JAN 15.8 11.0 1011 98 38 0.71 572 562 TUE 12Z 03-JAN 14.9 9.4 1012 98 5 0.02 573 563 TUE 18Z 03-JAN 15.3 8.5 1013 90 4 0.01 570 559 WED 00Z 04-JAN 11.6 6.2 1014 98 30 0.02 567 555 WED 06Z 04-JAN 4.1 3.1 1019 90 33 0.00 564 548 WED 12Z 04-JAN -0.4 0.4 1023 85 21 0.00 560 543 WED 18Z 04-JAN 3.5 -3.5 1023 52 33 0.00 558 540 THU 00Z 05-JAN -1.1 -4.7 1024 68 37 0.00 557 537 THU 06Z 05-JAN -2.4 -3.1 1025 63 55 0.00 555 536 THU 12Z 05-JAN -2.9 -3.7 1024 55 99 0.00 554 535 THU 18Z 05-JAN 1.9 -6.2 1023 38 98 0.00 550 532 FRI 00Z 06-JAN -1.2 -8.6 1023 66 23 0.00 550 533 FRI 06Z 06-JAN -3.3 -9.2 1025 78 14 0.00 552 532 FRI 12Z 06-JAN -4.4 -7.6 1028 77 20 0.00 554 532 FRI 18Z 06-JAN 1.6 -5.8 1028 23 65 0.00 558 536 SAT 00Z 07-JAN -0.1 -3.1 1028 30 96 0.00 561 539 SAT 06Z 07-JAN -1.0 -2.1 1028 35 99 0.00 563 541 SAT 12Z 07-JAN -2.9 -4.4 1029 80 98 0.05 565 542 SAT 18Z 07-JAN 0.0 -1.1 1024 100 100 0.99 564 545 SUN 00Z 08-JAN 0.2 2.2 1020 100 100 0.94 560 544 SUN 06Z 08-JAN -0.2 -0.6 1021 100 93 0.27 556 539 SUN 12Z 08-JAN -1.6 0.2 1024 99 11 0.01 560 541 SUN 18Z 08-JAN 0.3 2.9 1026 100 5 0.00 567 546 MON 00Z 09-JAN 0.0 6.1 1026 99 14 0.01 571 550 MON 06Z 09-JAN -6.9 7.0 1027 99 20 0.00 572 551 MON 12Z 09-JAN -1.6 7.5 1026 100 41 0.00 574 553 MON 18Z 09-JAN 0.4 8.8 1024 100 44 0.00 575 555 TUE 00Z 10-JAN 0.4 9.5 1021 100 71 0.01 574 557 TUE 12Z 10-JAN 1.2 4.0 1018 100 49 0.03 573 558 WED 00Z 11-JAN 2.9 6.3 1018 100 40 0.02 574 559 WED 12Z 11-JAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 00Z DEC31 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 00Z 31-DEC -0.6 -4.1 1023 80 48 561 542 SAT 06Z 31-DEC -0.6 0.3 1023 73 32 0.00 564 545 SAT 12Z 31-DEC -0.4 3.4 1021 61 25 0.00 563 545 SAT 18Z 31-DEC 6.1 0.4 1020 56 99 0.02 563 547 SUN 00Z 01-JAN 3.5 2.1 1019 91 99 0.03 564 549 SUN 06Z 01-JAN 4.1 4.9 1019 97 99 0.11 567 551 SUN 12Z 01-JAN 5.6 6.7 1020 97 76 0.04 570 553 SUN 18Z 01-JAN 8.8 8.3 1021 95 99 0.02 573 556 MON 00Z 02-JAN 8.1 9.3 1022 97 57 0.03 575 557 MON 06Z 02-JAN 9.4 10.1 1022 97 71 0.03 576 558 MON 12Z 02-JAN 10.0 10.3 1022 97 64 0.02 577 559 MON 18Z 02-JAN 14.2 10.9 1021 94 98 0.11 577 560 TUE 00Z 03-JAN 12.3 11.0 1017 98 86 0.04 576 562 TUE 06Z 03-JAN 13.6 11.4 1012 97 99 0.32 571 561 TUE 12Z 03-JAN 14.8 10.2 1010 98 53 0.09 571 563 TUE 18Z 03-JAN 15.8 7.2 1012 88 10 0.02 568 558 WED 00Z 04-JAN 10.9 5.5 1013 98 29 0.02 564 553 WED 06Z 04-JAN 3.9 1.5 1017 90 42 0.01 561 546 WED 12Z 04-JAN -0.9 -2.9 1021 87 29 0.00 557 540 WED 18Z 04-JAN 1.9 -8.2 1021 56 20 0.00 555 537 THU 00Z 05-JAN -2.3 -8.2 1023 67 21 0.00 553 534 THU 06Z 05-JAN -3.8 -6.5 1024 59 41 0.00 552 533 THU 12Z 05-JAN -3.9 -5.9 1024 49 94 0.00 551 532 THU 18Z 05-JAN -0.2 -8.6 1022 49 98 0.00 547 529 FRI 00Z 06-JAN -1.5 -9.2 1022 64 6 0.00 545 528 FRI 06Z 06-JAN -4.4 -11.9 1024 84 13 0.00 547 528 FRI 12Z 06-JAN -6.1 -11.7 1027 83 13 0.00 550 528 FRI 18Z 06-JAN 0.8 -9.4 1027 22 12 0.00 554 532 SAT 00Z 07-JAN -2.6 -5.0 1029 30 60 0.00 558 535 SAT 06Z 07-JAN -2.2 -4.5 1029 35 99 0.00 560 537 SAT 12Z 07-JAN -2.0 -5.8 1030 45 99 0.00 562 539 SAT 18Z 07-JAN -0.9 -0.6 1027 97 99 0.31 563 542 SUN 00Z 08-JAN -0.7 0.1 1022 99 99 0.53 560 543 SUN 06Z 08-JAN -1.2 -0.7 1022 99 99 0.18 556 538 SUN 12Z 08-JAN -3.3 -3.4 1024 100 51 0.02 557 537 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 I swear it seems like the Para is leading the way on the models. Whatever it shows 6-12 hours before the next OP run seems to happen. It was super suppressed, then modeling went that way. It was amped up and north and the op went that way, today it was back to a good hit and the op went that way. It's doing well at 500, right alongside the Euro in verification scores, trailing one ENS models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Lots of changes probably left, but being in the game a week or so out is pretty awesome. The only thing better would have been to get more of the southern end of the region. It doesnt appear we can get to a point where we can establish and follow trends. Bi-polar modeling for sure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Someone on the SE board mentioned the Para was verifying the best out of all the models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 5 minutes ago, John1122 said: I swear it seems like the Para is leading the way on the models. Whatever it shows 6-12 hours before the next OP run seems to happen. It was super suppressed, then modeling went that way. It was amped up and north and the op went that way, today it was back to a good hit and the op went that way. It's doing well at 500, right alongside the Euro in verification scores, trailing one ENS models. Really hoping the ensembles agree with the OP runs from the GFS and GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Am I reading the 0z GFS wrong in that it's hammering CHA with a foot of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just now, whamby said: Am I reading the 0z GFS wrong in that it's hammering CHA with a foot of snow? 8-12 over Hamilton County that run. Also upwards of 1/2 inch of freezing rain. Would be an all time type winter event if it were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, John1122 said: 8-12 over Hamilton County that run. Also upwards of 1/2 inch of freezing rain. Would be an all time type winter event if it were to verify. This storm's 'look' reminds of Feb '14 storm, where we got about 8 inches... although that one came after a long stint of very cold weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 It explodes when it gets into open waters,imagine if it gets into the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 I Kuchera higher than 10:1 in that run. Southern areas Kuchera slightly lower. 10:1 is 10-14 inches over the Southern Valley. 8-12 Kuchera. I'm 6-8 10:1 and 8-10 Kuchera. Temps across my area are in the mid 20s during the event as modeled with 850s getting to around 30. Southern Valley gets to right at 32 and has a period of 850s around 35 for some mix issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 From the SE thread. Means this high are very impressive and have been a fairly consistent GFES feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Mean looks good. Still lots of "whiffs" on the individuals mixed with north and south tracks, but a pretty good signal still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Mean looks good. Still lots of "whiffs" on the individuals mixed with north and south tracks, but a pretty good signal still there.I'll take e3 for 1000 Alex. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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