jaxjagman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, weathertree4u said: Wasnt the Euro south of the this the last run? yeah,wouldnt trust it right now,more east slider type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, jaxjagman said: yeah,wouldnt trust it right now,more east slider type Yea, I would love that solution but just would not trust any solution at this time. One thing is for sure, it appears that the cold air will be in place, which is usually something we are lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 The high is a LOT weaker and less expansive on this run of the Euro at day 7. It still gets it done (snow wise) for parts of the state, but seeing that gives me pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 It's only cold because of the snow cover algorithm....which totally looks over done for BNA on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Regions Prev. Runs Forecast GIFTrend GIFPage SettingsKeyboard Shortcuts Precip/Moisture Lower Dynamics Upper Dynamics Thermodynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I know many are looking at the Jan 6 system, but I thought I would look at the next several weeks. The 12z GEFS and even 0z EPS are advertising a decent signal for a Greenland block in the LR...but manage to keep the trough in the West. I am working on an idea that the current patten has yet to change. The current pattern(cold loading in western Canada -> US Northwest -> spreads modified air mass eastward) has been in place for roughly 45 days. I think the current pattern lasts roughly two more weeks just based on the rule that winter patterns have a shelf life of 30-45 days with some stubborn patterns going 60 such as this one. Just looking at modeling it seems there are hints now that the consistent trough pattern in the West is going to end. As usual, the models jumped the gun this time, but the modeled high latitude blocking and BN heights in the western Pacific do not teleconnect well to a western trough. JB discussed this some today with a good discussion about how the EPO is forecast to go strongly negative, and the recovery from that is getting pushed back. The MJO is forecast to go into phase 2 and maybe phase 3 at a low amplitude but not the circle of death. Phase 3 to me can be a crapshoot at this time of year. Phase 2 generally is cold here. The further into winter and phase 3 is cold with a hint of ridging in the NW. Refer to my earlier posts or Dacula Weather for graphics depicting NA wx that correlate to the various phases of the MJO. Now, some may argue that the MJO is at too low amplitude to matter. That is a fair criticism. However, we are leaving low amplitude phases 5-6. Those phases favor a warm EC and that appears to have verified. Just looking at the 12z Euro operational 500mb pattern, it seems to have too much interaction d7-10 w the low heights over the eastern Pacific w such a strong -EPO. I think that persistent, positively tilted trough in that area is not going to persist much longer, maybe ten more days roughly. The weeklies from last evening seem to support the elimination of this feature by mid-Jan. So, what is the new pattern? That is the question. As for now, I wanted to make the argument that we are near the end of the current one. If made to guess, I would probably roll w the current weeklies as they seem less wonky than Monday. Trough in the East and ridge in the West which Bob Chill in the MA forum mentioned would mean a pretty good winter for many. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Take a look at the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 East Asia looks like it's fixing to get juicy coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 gfs para don't look bad might be snow and ice in valley temps dont go up to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 5 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: gfs para don't look bad might be snow and ice in valley temps dont go up to much. Yeah, I think anyone in Tennessee would be happy if it turned out the way this model is. The band of heavy snow around Savannah, Tn and Selmer, Tn are intriguing. Highway 64 would be a mess the whole way across the bottom portion of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 eps takes the storm more south then the European did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 EPS looks colder, basically an I-40 north line on the sub 32 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 GFES also colder than the OP. Hours 156/62 the OP shows a spike of warming into the upper 30s and lower 40s as the system is in Northern Alabama basically. The Ens have temps below freezing for the entire 40 corridor during the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 18 gfs starts rain for Friday turns snow sat with low in sc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: 18 gfs is riding the tn border. That solution just seems odd to me. Is there a secondary low that develops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, weathertree4u said: That solution just seems odd to me. Is there a secondary low that develops? yes in sc we have snow sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 valley snow Saturday with new gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 That solution just seems odd to me. Is there a secondary low that develops? yes in sc we have snow satyes it develops a second wave like the euro had Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: 18 gfs is riding the tn border. Liking where we sit for the Middle TN area after accounting for the eventual NW shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I don't want the nw shift want snow in the valley lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: 18 gfs is riding the tn border. That solution just seems odd to me. Is there a secondary low that develops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 Hopefully we can reel it in the forum area. We've had great perfect track mega model runs, super suppressed dry runs and middle of the road rainer runs in the last 48 hours. There may be more model madness to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: Hopefully we can reel it in the forum area. We've had great perfect track mega model runs, super suppressed dry runs and middle of the road rainer runs in the last 48 hours. There may be more model madness to come. I like everyones chances on this one honestly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Well,you have to admit,this winter hasn't been boring yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Does anyone remember what the forecast models looked like For the winter storm that was supposed to blanket Tennessee last year? I want to say it was in February, they were predicting blizzard like conditions and then we ended up getting only a light dusting. I was just curious if anyone remembers what the forecasts for that storm were like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Models are coming back warmer today,trending a more wetter scenario than frozen.The control shift concerns me.It went from frozen to seeing a more strong cold front with thunder possibly,next Friday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Models are coming back warmer today,trending a more wetter scenario than frozen.The control shift concerns me.It went from frozen to seeing a more strong cold front with thunder possibly,next Friday afternoonI honestly don't like the control . it flips over and over. look at the last 5 runs. big shifts in all directions . Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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