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2016-2017 Great Tennessee Valley Winter Discussion


John1122

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Just now, John1122 said:

I'm fairly encouraged. The middle ground when you blend the last 48 hours of model runs is a great track for our area. That's why the Ens means of the EPS and GFS keep putting out great totals for our entire region. The 00z EPS mean was also 2+ inches for our entire area.

I am too really. Besides, the event is still several days a way with several systems in between we should know more by first of week I would think.

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1 minute ago, weathertree4u said:

For the life of me I do not know why this model even exists. Last run it was depicting Nashville, for example, to be well north of any precip but now we are totally in the rain lol; yes, lets see what the euro says

Small differences make for big changes further out in time. It's why any model run from 6-7 days out is hard to take verbatim. Think of the widening hurricane cones. Even at day 5 they are hundreds of miles wide. Hurricanes are generally much easier to track than these storms too.

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1 minute ago, weathertree4u said:

For the life of me I do not know why this model even exists. Last run it was depicting Nashville, for example, to be well north of any precip but now we are totally in the rain lol; yes, lets see what the euro says

It's best to look at the mean and compare it to the other model means this far out.  I don't think this is any more likely than other scenarios.  Let's see what the ensembles say.

By the way, it looks chilly on next Saturday at 1pm. lol

gfs 2m temps 12302016 valid 01072017.png

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Just now, tnweathernut said:

It's best to look at the mean and compare it to the other model means this far out.  I don't think this is any more likely than other scenarios.  Let's see what the ensembles say.

By the way, it looks chilly on next Saturday at 1pm. lol

gfs 2m temps 12302016 valid 01072017.png

Good points; yes, I have been using my firewood sparingly so far this year, looks like next week will need to use it!

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2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Small differences make for big changes further out in time. It's why any model run from 6-7 days out is hard to take verbatim. Think of the widening hurricane cones. Even at day 5 they are hundreds of miles wide. Hurricanes are generally much easier to track than these storms too.

It's also a reason modeling can miss a time period by a 1/2 a day or more at days 4+.  If modeling is off on the speed of a system by just a couple of miles per hour that adds up to a great distance the further out you go..

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2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Small differences make for big changes further out in time. It's why any model run from 6-7 days out is hard to take verbatim. Think of the widening hurricane cones. Even at day 5 they are hundreds of miles wide. Hurricanes are generally much easier to track than these storms too.

Very good point.  The margin of error increases each day the further out the model goes, whether its a hurricane or a winter storm.  But as you said, hurricanes are much easier to forecast for because there are usually less variables to consider--mainly just which way the steering flow will take the storm.  Even then, more than 4-5 days out the cone of uncertainty grows to hundreds of miles wide.   

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22 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I'm fairly encouraged. The middle ground when you blend the last 48 hours of model runs is a great track for our area. That's why the Ens means of the EPS and GFS keep putting out great totals for our entire region. The 00z EPS mean was also 2+ inches for our entire area.

Agreed. The ensemble means have been as good as could be hoped for at this point. I wouldn't worry much about individual op runs for awhile yet. If the ensembles start trending away in the next 48 hrs that would be cause for concern.

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45 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Just pointing out there is a broader area of higher pressures over the top, with a piece centered in northern Missouri. Per that model run it was a good look for the TN Valley region.

gfs mslp anomaly 12302016 174 hr valid 01062017.png

Not that it matters at this point,just saying.That H brings in drier air in our parts, dampens the storm out,not so much for you guys

 

gfs_mslp_pwata_us_30.png

 

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2 minutes ago, Mr Bob said:

Lots of happy western and central TN folks who are well deserving in this run.....

Yeah,no complaints that run

FRI 00Z 06-JAN   0.8    -0.5     129    5032    02005           0.01            
FRI 06Z 06-JAN  -0.2     0.0     129    4738    36006           0.02            
FRI 12Z 06-JAN  -0.7     0.5     129    4043    01005           0.01            
FRI 18Z 06-JAN   0.2     0.5     129    5586    35005           0.01            
SAT 00Z 07-JAN  -1.3     0.4     129    5564    02008           0.03            
SAT 06Z 07-JAN  -2.3    -0.8     128    8259    01008           0.34            
SAT 12Z 07-JAN  -3.8    -5.6     127       0    35009           0.31            
SAT 18Z 07-JAN  -5.7   -11.2     125       0    32011           0.09            
SUN 00Z 08-JAN  -7.0   -17.2     124       0    31010           0.03            
SUN 06Z 08-JAN                                                           
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Just now, Runman292 said:

I'm unable to see the Euro. Not a good run for the East TN valley?

FRI 00Z 06-JAN   3.2     1.3     131    6380    03003           0.04            
FRI 06Z 06-JAN   3.4     3.3     132    7001    01002           0.00            
FRI 12Z 06-JAN   2.4     2.6     131    6272    04002           0.03            
FRI 18Z 06-JAN   6.4     3.8     132    7777    02001           0.00            
SAT 00Z 07-JAN   3.9     5.1     132    8468    02005           0.00            
SAT 06Z 07-JAN   2.3     6.2     132    9594    05004           0.29            
SAT 12Z 07-JAN  -0.3     1.8     130    9188    01005           0.69            
SAT 18Z 07-JAN  -1.0    -3.3     129    1798    31004           0.11            
SUN 00Z 08-JAN  -5.4   -14.6     126       0    31010           0.12            
SUN 06Z 08-JAN  -8.1   -17.8     124       0    31010           0.02            
SUN 12Z 08-JAN -12.0   -15.8     123       0    28004           0.00            
SUN 18Z 08-JAN  -4.7   -15.1     125       0    28004           0.00            
MON 00Z 09-JAN                                                                  
MON 06Z 09-JAN                                                                  
MON 12Z 09-JAN                                                        
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Freaking gets cold

 

                                            12Z DEC30
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
FRI 12Z 30-DEC                  35.5    17.8    29008   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 18Z 30-DEC  43.3    34.1    43.5    19.9    30007   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 00Z 31-DEC  45.4    37.1    37.0    22.9    21004   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 06Z 31-DEC  37.0    34.8    35.2    20.1    19007   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 12Z 31-DEC  41.0    35.2    41.2    20.5    20010   0.00    0.00     100    
SAT 18Z 31-DEC  43.1    40.1    43.1    30.9    19010   0.06    0.00     100    
SUN 00Z 01-JAN  43.6    41.4    42.1    41.0    19004   0.12    0.00     100    
SUN 06Z 01-JAN  44.5    41.9    44.5    43.9    16005   0.14    0.00     100    
SUN 12Z 01-JAN  46.6    44.5    46.6    46.2    12004   0.02    0.00     100    
SUN 18Z 01-JAN  51.8    46.5    51.9    50.9    15006   0.14    0.00     100    
MON 00Z 02-JAN  54.8    51.9    54.2    53.7    16005   0.01    0.00     100    
MON 06Z 02-JAN  54.7    54.1    54.5    54.0    16005   0.01    0.00     100    
MON 12Z 02-JAN  55.1    54.3    55.1    54.7    15007   0.09    0.00     100    
MON 18Z 02-JAN  61.2    55.0    61.3    59.8    17011   0.15    0.00     100    
TUE 00Z 03-JAN  63.8    61.3    62.4    61.9    17014   0.10    0.00     100    
TUE 06Z 03-JAN  62.7    59.9    59.8    58.4    24009   0.35    0.00      64    
TUE 12Z 03-JAN  59.8    56.8    57.3    56.7    21005   0.00    0.00      99    
TUE 18Z 03-JAN  63.4    56.6    63.6    52.2    22008   0.00    0.00      75    
WED 00Z 04-JAN  64.7    54.7    54.5    46.9    22005   0.00    0.00       7    
WED 06Z 04-JAN  54.5    48.2    48.5    45.4    31007   0.00    0.00      66    
WED 12Z 04-JAN  49.7    43.8    43.6    35.8    34008   0.00    0.00      98    
WED 18Z 04-JAN  43.6    40.0    42.7    27.6    35007   0.00    0.00      97    
THU 00Z 05-JAN  43.0    37.0    36.9    21.5    35006   0.00    0.00      99    
THU 06Z 05-JAN  36.9    33.3    34.0    18.1    01006   0.00    0.00      98    
THU 12Z 05-JAN  34.3    32.7    32.7    16.7    02006   0.00    0.00      94    
THU 18Z 05-JAN  35.4    32.3    35.5    20.8    03004   0.00    0.00     100    
FRI 00Z 06-JAN  35.5    33.5    33.5    23.5    02005   0.01    0.01     100    
FRI 06Z 06-JAN  33.5    31.7    31.6    26.4    36006   0.02    0.01     100    
FRI 12Z 06-JAN  31.7    30.8    30.8    25.2    01005   0.01    0.00     100    
FRI 18Z 06-JAN  32.4    30.6    32.4    25.1    35005   0.01    0.00     100    
SAT 00Z 07-JAN  32.5    29.7    29.7    25.1    02008   0.03    0.02     100    
SAT 06Z 07-JAN  29.7    27.9    27.8    26.8    01008   0.34    0.15     100    
SAT 12Z 07-JAN  27.8    25.2    25.1    21.8    35009   0.31    0.15     100    
SAT 18Z 07-JAN  25.1    21.8    21.8    15.3    32011   0.09    0.09     100    
SUN 00Z 08-JAN  22.2    19.5    19.4    10.3    31010   0.03    0.03      86    
SUN 06Z 08-JAN  19.4     9.9     9.7     3.6    30006   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 12Z 08-JAN   9.7     1.3     1.7    -4.3    27005   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 18Z 08-JAN  21.4     0.7    21.6     2.3    27003   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 00Z 09-JAN  25.3    17.8    20.6     6.1    26003   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 06Z 09-JAN  21.6    10.7    16.5     3.7    18006   0.00    0.00      33    
MON 12Z 09-JAN                                                                  



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ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS    LAT=  35.82 LON=  -83.98 ELE=   981

                                            12Z DEC30
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
FRI 12Z 30-DEC                  32.8    17.3    28007   0.00    0.00       1    
FRI 18Z 30-DEC  40.4    32.2    40.6    18.6    29008   0.00    0.00       2    
SAT 00Z 31-DEC  41.4    34.5    34.3    20.4    26004   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 06Z 31-DEC  34.4    30.8    31.7    20.1    20005   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 12Z 31-DEC  34.3    31.4    34.4    16.7    21005   0.00    0.00      97    
SAT 18Z 31-DEC  43.3    34.2    43.1    21.9    21008   0.00    0.00      98    
SUN 00Z 01-JAN  45.3    42.8    44.5    27.3    21007   0.00    0.00     100    
SUN 06Z 01-JAN  44.8    40.6    41.0    40.6    23002   0.13    0.00     100    
SUN 12Z 01-JAN  42.8    40.9    42.8    42.6    11003   0.17    0.00     100    
SUN 18Z 01-JAN  49.8    42.8    49.9    47.0    10003   0.06    0.00      99    
MON 00Z 02-JAN  53.1    49.1    51.7    48.9    13003   0.01    0.00     100    
MON 06Z 02-JAN  52.1    50.2    50.8    49.1    13003   0.01    0.00     100    
MON 12Z 02-JAN  51.6    49.9    50.5    50.2    11003   0.12    0.00     100    
MON 18Z 02-JAN  56.5    50.4    56.3    56.0    15003   0.24    0.00     100    
TUE 00Z 03-JAN  58.5    54.9    57.1    55.5    16006   0.08    0.00     100    
TUE 06Z 03-JAN  59.9    56.6    59.4    57.1    20012   0.04    0.00      95    
TUE 12Z 03-JAN  59.7    57.4    57.6    57.3    25006   0.16    0.00      98    
TUE 18Z 03-JAN  61.8    56.2    61.8    54.7    24008   0.02    0.00      98    
WED 00Z 04-JAN  62.7    54.3    54.2    49.3    23005   0.00    0.00       9    
WED 06Z 04-JAN  54.2    48.3    48.2    45.4    22004   0.00    0.00      56    
WED 12Z 04-JAN  48.2    42.9    43.6    42.8    28003   0.00    0.00      98    
WED 18Z 04-JAN  49.7    43.5    49.7    38.7    32005   0.04    0.00      95    
THU 00Z 05-JAN  49.9    43.3    43.2    31.2    00005   0.00    0.00      96    
THU 06Z 05-JAN  43.2    35.4    35.3    25.9    03004   0.00    0.00      69    
THU 12Z 05-JAN  35.8    34.6    35.1    22.7    03004   0.00    0.00      94    
THU 18Z 05-JAN  41.8    34.9    41.6    28.7    01003   0.00    0.00      99    
FRI 00Z 06-JAN  42.2    37.8    37.8    35.0    03003   0.04    0.00     100    
FRI 06Z 06-JAN  39.0    36.9    38.1    35.7    01002   0.00    0.00     100    
FRI 12Z 06-JAN  38.2    36.2    36.3    35.1    04002   0.03    0.00     100    
FRI 18Z 06-JAN  43.1    36.2    43.4    38.5    02001   0.00    0.00      93    
SAT 00Z 07-JAN  46.4    39.1    39.0    35.3    02005   0.00    0.00     100    
SAT 06Z 07-JAN  40.2    34.7    36.1    35.7    05004   0.29    0.00     100    
SAT 12Z 07-JAN  37.2    31.4    31.4    31.0    01005   0.69    0.01     100    
SAT 18Z 07-JAN  33.0    30.0    30.2    26.3    31004   0.11    0.05     100    
SUN 00Z 08-JAN  30.3    22.5    22.3    12.4    31010   0.12    0.12      96    
SUN 06Z 08-JAN  22.3    17.5    17.3     4.7    31010   0.02    0.02      99    
SUN 12Z 08-JAN  17.3    10.5    10.5    -1.3    28004   0.00    0.00       4    
SUN 18Z 08-JAN  23.2     9.4    23.5    -4.7    28004   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 00Z 09-JAN  26.5    19.0    19.3     3.0    19003   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 06Z 09-JAN  20.4    17.7    19.5     6.4    16004   0.00    0.00      11    
MON 12Z 09-JAN  24.3    19.3    24.4     6.8    20004   0.00    0.00      55    



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Just now, jaxjagman said:

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS    LAT=  35.82 LON=  -83.98 ELE=   981

                                            12Z DEC30
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
FRI 12Z 30-DEC                  32.8    17.3    28007   0.00    0.00       1    
FRI 18Z 30-DEC  40.4    32.2    40.6    18.6    29008   0.00    0.00       2    
SAT 00Z 31-DEC  41.4    34.5    34.3    20.4    26004   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 06Z 31-DEC  34.4    30.8    31.7    20.1    20005   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 12Z 31-DEC  34.3    31.4    34.4    16.7    21005   0.00    0.00      97    
SAT 18Z 31-DEC  43.3    34.2    43.1    21.9    21008   0.00    0.00      98    
SUN 00Z 01-JAN  45.3    42.8    44.5    27.3    21007   0.00    0.00     100    
SUN 06Z 01-JAN  44.8    40.6    41.0    40.6    23002   0.13    0.00     100    
SUN 12Z 01-JAN  42.8    40.9    42.8    42.6    11003   0.17    0.00     100    
SUN 18Z 01-JAN  49.8    42.8    49.9    47.0    10003   0.06    0.00      99    
MON 00Z 02-JAN  53.1    49.1    51.7    48.9    13003   0.01    0.00     100    
MON 06Z 02-JAN  52.1    50.2    50.8    49.1    13003   0.01    0.00     100    
MON 12Z 02-JAN  51.6    49.9    50.5    50.2    11003   0.12    0.00     100    
MON 18Z 02-JAN  56.5    50.4    56.3    56.0    15003   0.24    0.00     100    
TUE 00Z 03-JAN  58.5    54.9    57.1    55.5    16006   0.08    0.00     100    
TUE 06Z 03-JAN  59.9    56.6    59.4    57.1    20012   0.04    0.00      95    
TUE 12Z 03-JAN  59.7    57.4    57.6    57.3    25006   0.16    0.00      98    
TUE 18Z 03-JAN  61.8    56.2    61.8    54.7    24008   0.02    0.00      98    
WED 00Z 04-JAN  62.7    54.3    54.2    49.3    23005   0.00    0.00       9    
WED 06Z 04-JAN  54.2    48.3    48.2    45.4    22004   0.00    0.00      56    
WED 12Z 04-JAN  48.2    42.9    43.6    42.8    28003   0.00    0.00      98    
WED 18Z 04-JAN  49.7    43.5    49.7    38.7    32005   0.04    0.00      95    
THU 00Z 05-JAN  49.9    43.3    43.2    31.2    00005   0.00    0.00      96    
THU 06Z 05-JAN  43.2    35.4    35.3    25.9    03004   0.00    0.00      69    
THU 12Z 05-JAN  35.8    34.6    35.1    22.7    03004   0.00    0.00      94    
THU 18Z 05-JAN  41.8    34.9    41.6    28.7    01003   0.00    0.00      99    
FRI 00Z 06-JAN  42.2    37.8    37.8    35.0    03003   0.04    0.00     100    
FRI 06Z 06-JAN  39.0    36.9    38.1    35.7    01002   0.00    0.00     100    
FRI 12Z 06-JAN  38.2    36.2    36.3    35.1    04002   0.03    0.00     100    
FRI 18Z 06-JAN  43.1    36.2    43.4    38.5    02001   0.00    0.00      93    
SAT 00Z 07-JAN  46.4    39.1    39.0    35.3    02005   0.00    0.00     100    
SAT 06Z 07-JAN  40.2    34.7    36.1    35.7    05004   0.29    0.00     100    
SAT 12Z 07-JAN  37.2    31.4    31.4    31.0    01005   0.69    0.01     100    
SAT 18Z 07-JAN  33.0    30.0    30.2    26.3    31004   0.11    0.05     100    
SUN 00Z 08-JAN  30.3    22.5    22.3    12.4    31010   0.12    0.12      96    
SUN 06Z 08-JAN  22.3    17.5    17.3     4.7    31010   0.02    0.02      99    
SUN 12Z 08-JAN  17.3    10.5    10.5    -1.3    28004   0.00    0.00       4    
SUN 18Z 08-JAN  23.2     9.4    23.5    -4.7    28004   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 00Z 09-JAN  26.5    19.0    19.3     3.0    19003   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 06Z 09-JAN  20.4    17.7    19.5     6.4    16004   0.00    0.00      11    
MON 12Z 09-JAN  24.3    19.3    24.4     6.8    20004   0.00    0.00      55    



Wasnt the Euro south of the this the last run?

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ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA    LAT=  35.03 LON=  -85.20 ELE=   689

                                            12Z DEC30
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
FRI 12Z 30-DEC                  35.2    17.9    30007   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 18Z 30-DEC  44.1    34.2    44.2    18.4    30007   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 00Z 31-DEC  45.4    37.8    37.7    22.6    27005   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 06Z 31-DEC  38.2    33.0    33.0    21.9    16005   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 12Z 31-DEC  35.7    32.5    35.7    21.4    18006   0.00    0.00     100    
SAT 18Z 31-DEC  44.1    35.7    44.1    26.1    18007   0.01    0.00      98    
SUN 00Z 01-JAN  45.0    42.7    43.1    32.6    17008   0.01    0.00     100    
SUN 06Z 01-JAN  43.3    40.6    42.4    41.4    16005   0.08    0.00     100    
SUN 12Z 01-JAN  44.6    42.4    44.7    44.2    14005   0.06    0.00     100    
SUN 18Z 01-JAN  51.7    44.7    51.7    48.9    15007   0.00    0.00     100    
MON 00Z 02-JAN  52.3    51.3    51.4    49.6    15007   0.01    0.00     100    
MON 06Z 02-JAN  52.0    51.3    52.0    50.8    16006   0.02    0.00     100    
MON 12Z 02-JAN  53.4    51.9    53.4    53.3    15005   0.37    0.00     100    
MON 18Z 02-JAN  55.7    53.4    55.7    55.6    15010   0.26    0.00     100    
TUE 00Z 03-JAN  59.7    55.7    59.5    59.2    16009   0.15    0.00     100    
TUE 06Z 03-JAN  61.8    59.4    61.2    60.9    20009   0.14    0.00      97    
TUE 12Z 03-JAN  61.8    58.3    58.1    57.5    26004   0.03    0.00     100    
TUE 18Z 03-JAN  64.0    56.2    64.1    53.4    23007   0.00    0.00      84    
WED 00Z 04-JAN  64.5    54.9    54.7    49.4    23005   0.00    0.00      40    
WED 06Z 04-JAN  54.7    48.0    47.8    45.6    24004   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 12Z 04-JAN  48.1    44.6    45.2    44.2    33005   0.00    0.00      81    
WED 18Z 04-JAN  51.2    45.1    51.1    38.9    33006   0.00    0.00     100    
THU 00Z 05-JAN  51.9    45.1    45.0    34.3    34006   0.00    0.00      94    
THU 06Z 05-JAN  45.0    39.3    39.2    28.0    02005   0.00    0.00      85    
THU 12Z 05-JAN  39.3    37.6    37.6    24.7    03004   0.00    0.00      95    
THU 18Z 05-JAN  41.1    37.3    39.5    31.7    04001   0.01    0.00     100    
FRI 00Z 06-JAN  40.5    38.9    39.8    35.0    05002   0.02    0.00     100    
FRI 06Z 06-JAN  40.5    39.7    40.5    36.6    35002   0.00    0.00     100    
FRI 12Z 06-JAN  41.4    40.4    41.2    37.6    01003   0.01    0.00     100    
FRI 18Z 06-JAN  50.3    40.8    50.5    40.6    05002   0.00    0.00      91    
SAT 00Z 07-JAN  53.7    45.5    45.3    40.1    04005   0.00    0.00     100    
SAT 06Z 07-JAN  45.5    39.0    38.9    38.7    03005   0.32    0.00     100    
SAT 12Z 07-JAN  39.0    34.9    34.9    34.3    02006   0.72    0.00     100    
SAT 18Z 07-JAN  35.1    30.8    30.6    26.0    31010   0.14    0.09     100    
SUN 00Z 08-JAN  30.6    23.3    23.1    10.2    32012   0.03    0.03      99    
SUN 06Z 08-JAN  23.1    18.2    18.1     3.1    32010   0.00    0.00      44    
SUN 12Z 08-JAN  18.1    12.9    12.9    -1.8    32005   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 18Z 08-JAN  27.2    12.7    27.5    -1.5    30005   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 00Z 09-JAN  30.7    23.7    23.5     6.7    22003   0.00    0.00       2    
MON 06Z 09-JAN  23.9    21.1    21.4     3.4    20003   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 12Z 09-JAN  23.3    21.2    23.3     7.3    18006   0.00    0.00      34    
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