tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 GEFS is a thing of beauty for the TN Valley. Deepening cold and plenty of precip at 180. Precip is the mean for the previous 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 0z GEFS - 14/20 give some part of the state of TN at least 6 inches through day 9.5. 20/20 some part at least 2". Mean looks. Like this..... heck of a signal, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 That mean is as good as it gets on an ENS run. Wish it was 24 hours out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Thanks TWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 Canadian abandoned it's far north look and is similar to the GFS with suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 13 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Thanks TWN No problem, you're welcome. I just hope someone scores... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 13 minutes ago, John1122 said: Canadian abandoned it's far north look and is similar to the GFS with suppression. Yeah, the surface was a convoluted mess, but it was similar to other modeling at 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Colder run from the 12z,so far anyways ECMWF minus prev. run FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z DEC30 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK FRI 00Z 30-DEC 1.5 0.1 1 -3 -3 0 -1 FRI 06Z 30-DEC 0.8 0.1 0 -4 0 0.00 0 0 FRI 12Z 30-DEC 0.3 -0.2 0 -2 1 0.00 1 1 FRI 18Z 30-DEC -0.3 0.0 0 2 -4 0.00 1 1 SAT 00Z 31-DEC -0.1 -0.2 0 1 0 0.00 0 0 SAT 06Z 31-DEC -0.3 0.4 0 1 1 0.00 0 0 SAT 12Z 31-DEC 0.3 0.5 0 1 -8 0.00 0 0 SAT 18Z 31-DEC 0.0 -0.4 0 -9 0 -0.04 0 0 SUN 00Z 01-JAN -0.5 -0.6 1 -3 0 -0.01 0 -1 SUN 06Z 01-JAN -0.5 -0.8 1 0 -13 0.03 0 -1 SUN 12Z 01-JAN -0.5 -1.0 2 0 -20 -0.04 0 -1 SUN 18Z 01-JAN -1.8 0.0 2 2 -2 0.05 1 0 MON 00Z 02-JAN -0.4 -0.2 1 -2 -4 0.00 1 0 MON 06Z 02-JAN -0.8 0.0 1 -2 -5 -0.01 0 -1 MON 12Z 02-JAN -1.5 -0.6 1 -1 -7 -0.10 0 0 MON 18Z 02-JAN -0.8 0.9 0 -2 -21 -0.11 1 1 TUE 00Z 03-JAN 0.0 -0.5 1 -1 17 -0.09 1 0 TUE 06Z 03-JAN -0.4 -0.7 -2 0 10 0.03 -3 -1 TUE 12Z 03-JAN -1.2 -1.4 0 0 -2 -0.03 0 0 TUE 18Z 03-JAN -1.2 0.0 0 -5 2 0.00 0 0 WED 00Z 04-JAN -1.9 -0.1 1 2 -4 0.00 -1 -2 WED 06Z 04-JAN -1.8 -1.6 0 -1 -1 0.00 -1 -1 WED 12Z 04-JAN -1.7 -3.3 -1 -1 10 0.00 -1 -1 WED 18Z 04-JAN -2.8 -6.2 0 -2 -2 0.00 -4 -4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 surpressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Nothing here,gives you guys out east some though ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 00Z DEC30 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) FRI 00Z 30-DEC 42.4 19.5 28010 1 FRI 06Z 30-DEC 40.6 36.0 35.9 21.4 28009 0.00 0.00 10 FRI 12Z 30-DEC 35.9 32.3 32.3 16.2 28008 0.00 0.00 1 FRI 18Z 30-DEC 40.3 31.9 40.4 18.4 29007 0.00 0.00 1 SAT 00Z 31-DEC 41.4 34.4 34.3 20.4 26004 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 06Z 31-DEC 34.3 30.5 31.3 20.5 19005 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 12Z 31-DEC 32.9 30.8 32.9 17.1 21004 0.00 0.00 99 SAT 18Z 31-DEC 43.6 32.9 42.6 23.8 21007 0.01 0.00 97 SUN 00Z 01-JAN 44.8 41.9 43.9 30.2 21008 0.00 0.00 100 SUN 06Z 01-JAN 45.0 41.8 42.1 41.4 24003 0.06 0.00 100 SUN 12Z 01-JAN 43.2 41.9 43.1 42.6 10004 0.20 0.00 100 SUN 18Z 01-JAN 49.7 43.1 49.9 46.8 10003 0.02 0.00 100 MON 00Z 02-JAN 53.0 48.5 49.8 47.7 12004 0.00 0.00 100 MON 06Z 02-JAN 51.0 49.1 49.7 47.9 14002 0.00 0.00 100 MON 12Z 02-JAN 51.2 49.2 50.0 49.5 12003 0.07 0.00 100 MON 18Z 02-JAN 55.0 48.9 55.1 54.9 14004 0.30 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 03-JAN 56.4 53.5 54.0 53.2 13005 0.20 0.00 100 TUE 06Z 03-JAN 57.1 52.3 55.9 54.7 18006 0.24 0.00 95 TUE 12Z 03-JAN 58.8 55.1 58.3 58.1 21008 0.23 0.00 100 TUE 18Z 03-JAN 62.4 58.2 62.5 54.3 24009 0.01 0.00 96 WED 00Z 04-JAN 63.5 57.3 57.2 51.1 22006 0.00 0.00 99 WED 06Z 04-JAN 57.2 50.3 50.2 48.6 22004 0.00 0.00 95 WED 12Z 04-JAN 50.2 48.3 48.9 48.4 24004 0.00 0.00 99 WED 18Z 04-JAN 52.7 48.5 49.5 44.8 33006 0.03 0.00 99 THU 00Z 05-JAN 49.8 44.9 44.8 37.4 00004 0.03 0.00 100 THU 06Z 05-JAN 44.8 39.3 39.2 30.5 02005 0.01 0.00 99 THU 12Z 05-JAN 39.3 35.8 35.7 26.2 03005 0.01 0.00 92 THU 18Z 05-JAN 39.0 35.2 38.2 29.2 01005 0.02 0.00 100 FRI 00Z 06-JAN 38.2 32.4 32.3 27.6 03006 0.09 0.06 98 FRI 06Z 06-JAN 32.3 30.3 30.3 26.1 02005 0.07 0.05 100 FRI 12Z 06-JAN 30.4 28.9 29.1 25.2 02004 0.14 0.13 100 FRI 18Z 06-JAN 32.2 28.9 32.0 24.4 02005 0.02 0.02 100 SAT 00Z 07-JAN 32.2 28.1 28.0 20.8 02005 0.07 0.07 100 SAT 06Z 07-JAN 28.0 23.2 23.1 14.9 00004 0.01 0.01 96 SAT 12Z 07-JAN 23.1 16.5 16.5 5.6 34004 0.00 0.00 96 SAT 18Z 07-JAN 22.6 22.7 2.7 30005 0.00 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 00Z DEC30 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) FRI 00Z 30-DEC 5.8 -3.8 131 28010 FRI 06Z 30-DEC 2.2 -6.2 130 1139 28009 0.00 FRI 12Z 30-DEC 0.1 -7.8 129 552 28008 0.00 FRI 18Z 30-DEC 4.7 -7.0 130 1164 29007 0.00 SAT 00Z 31-DEC 1.3 -4.3 130 1545 26004 0.00 SAT 06Z 31-DEC -0.4 0.9 131 4943 19005 0.00 SAT 12Z 31-DEC 0.5 4.5 132 6584 21004 0.00 SAT 18Z 31-DEC 5.9 1.5 132 4735 21007 0.01 SUN 00Z 01-JAN 6.6 2.2 133 5567 21008 0.00 SUN 06Z 01-JAN 5.6 5.2 133 7582 24003 0.06 SUN 12Z 01-JAN 6.2 7.5 134 8178 10004 0.20 SUN 18Z 01-JAN 9.9 8.8 135 9361 10003 0.02 MON 00Z 02-JAN 9.9 8.8 135 10602 12004 0.00 MON 06Z 02-JAN 9.8 10.1 136 9877 14002 0.00 MON 12Z 02-JAN 10.0 11.4 137 9348 12003 0.07 MON 18Z 02-JAN 12.8 11.7 137 9541 14004 0.30 TUE 00Z 03-JAN 12.2 12.4 137 9967 13005 0.20 TUE 06Z 03-JAN 13.3 11.9 137 9569 18006 0.24 TUE 12Z 03-JAN 14.6 10.3 137 12514 21008 0.23 TUE 18Z 03-JAN 17.0 8.8 137 11906 24009 0.01 WED 00Z 04-JAN 14.0 8.3 137 10228 22006 0.00 WED 06Z 04-JAN 10.1 6.9 136 10214 22004 0.00 WED 12Z 04-JAN 9.4 5.5 135 9021 24004 0.00 WED 18Z 04-JAN 9.7 2.7 133 8143 33006 0.03 THU 00Z 05-JAN 7.1 0.6 132 6258 00004 0.03 THU 06Z 05-JAN 4.0 0.5 131 4097 02005 0.01 THU 12Z 05-JAN 2.1 -0.2 130 2500 03005 0.01 THU 18Z 05-JAN 3.5 0.1 130 4698 01005 0.02 FRI 00Z 06-JAN 0.2 -1.1 129 1785 03006 0.09 FRI 06Z 06-JAN -0.9 -0.8 129 1396 02005 0.07 FRI 12Z 06-JAN -1.6 -1.6 129 656 02004 0.14 FRI 18Z 06-JAN 0.0 -2.4 129 132 02005 0.02 SAT 00Z 07-JAN -2.2 -6.7 128 0 02005 0.07 SAT 06Z 07-JAN -4.9 -9.3 127 0 00004 0.01 SAT 12Z 07-JAN -8.6 -12.6 125 0 34004 0.00 SAT 18Z 07-JAN -5.2 -15.9 125 0 30005 0.00 SUN 00Z 08-JAN -9.6 -16.8 124 0 30005 0.00 SUN 06Z 08-JAN -12.9 -18.9 123 0 31003 0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 00Z DEC30 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) FRI 00Z 30-DEC 7.5 -3.1 131 30009 FRI 06Z 30-DEC 4.1 -5.3 130 1947 30009 0.00 FRI 12Z 30-DEC 1.4 -5.9 129 1054 30007 0.00 FRI 18Z 30-DEC 6.6 -5.4 130 1794 30007 0.00 SAT 00Z 31-DEC 3.0 -2.8 131 2229 26005 0.00 SAT 06Z 31-DEC 0.4 3.7 132 6561 17005 0.00 SAT 12Z 31-DEC 1.8 4.8 132 7039 18006 0.00 SAT 18Z 31-DEC 7.2 2.6 132 5049 18007 0.00 SUN 00Z 01-JAN 4.8 3.4 133 7574 16008 0.02 SUN 06Z 01-JAN 5.7 6.9 133 8662 16006 0.06 SUN 12Z 01-JAN 6.8 10.5 134 9458 14005 0.02 SUN 18Z 01-JAN 10.5 10.2 135 10530 15007 0.01 MON 00Z 02-JAN 10.7 10.1 135 10790 15007 0.00 MON 06Z 02-JAN 11.1 11.3 136 10140 16006 0.02 MON 12Z 02-JAN 11.8 11.8 137 9941 15005 0.21 MON 18Z 02-JAN 13.5 12.1 137 9918 15008 0.52 TUE 00Z 03-JAN 14.4 12.1 137 10401 15009 0.13 TUE 06Z 03-JAN 15.3 11.9 137 10296 17007 0.28 TUE 12Z 03-JAN 15.2 9.8 137 12997 23005 0.23 TUE 18Z 03-JAN 17.6 10.1 137 12251 24007 0.01 WED 00Z 04-JAN 14.2 10.5 137 10968 22005 0.00 WED 06Z 04-JAN 10.2 7.7 136 10750 22004 0.00 WED 12Z 04-JAN 8.3 8.5 135 9698 26003 0.00 WED 18Z 04-JAN 11.5 4.3 134 8467 33006 0.00 THU 00Z 05-JAN 7.9 4.2 133 6703 35005 0.00 THU 06Z 05-JAN 4.4 2.5 132 6338 00005 0.02 THU 12Z 05-JAN 2.3 2.8 131 6521 02006 0.07 THU 18Z 05-JAN 3.3 2.6 131 7236 01005 0.04 FRI 00Z 06-JAN 1.2 1.6 130 5977 01007 0.07 FRI 06Z 06-JAN -0.3 1.4 130 5422 01006 0.05 FRI 12Z 06-JAN -0.9 0.3 129 5192 01006 0.20 FRI 18Z 06-JAN 2.4 -0.9 130 609 01006 0.01 SAT 00Z 07-JAN -0.7 -4.5 128 5 36007 0.08 SAT 06Z 07-JAN -4.2 -7.3 127 0 34008 0.01 SAT 12Z 07-JAN -8.3 -10.9 125 0 33008 0.00 SAT 18Z 07-JAN -4.0 -14.7 125 0 32008 0.00 SUN 00Z 08-JAN -7.5 -15.5 124 0 32007 0.00 SUN 06Z 08-JAN -9.8 -14.8 124 0 34005 0.00 SUN 12Z 08-JAN -10.8 -12.2 124 0 02004 0.00 SUN 18Z 08-JAN MON 00Z 09-JAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z DEC30 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) FRI 00Z 30-DEC 6.9 -4.5 131 28008 FRI 06Z 30-DEC 4.1 -6.6 130 1894 30011 0.00 FRI 12Z 30-DEC 1.1 -5.5 129 1280 28007 0.00 FRI 18Z 30-DEC 6.2 -3.8 130 1683 30007 0.00 SAT 00Z 31-DEC 2.8 -1.8 131 2563 22005 0.00 SAT 06Z 31-DEC 1.5 3.6 132 7297 19007 0.00 SAT 12Z 31-DEC 4.1 4.2 132 6623 20009 0.00 SAT 18Z 31-DEC 6.0 1.7 132 5075 19010 0.05 SUN 00Z 01-JAN 5.9 4.0 133 7340 18006 0.08 SUN 06Z 01-JAN 7.0 5.4 133 8347 15004 0.17 SUN 12Z 01-JAN 8.2 7.6 134 9889 14005 0.05 SUN 18Z 01-JAN 10.9 9.6 135 10508 14006 0.07 MON 00Z 02-JAN 12.2 10.2 136 10586 16007 0.01 MON 06Z 02-JAN 12.3 11.3 136 10462 15006 0.00 MON 12Z 02-JAN 13.4 12.3 137 9964 16008 0.06 MON 18Z 02-JAN 16.2 13.1 138 10849 17012 0.04 TUE 00Z 03-JAN 16.6 12.3 138 10571 17009 0.15 TUE 06Z 03-JAN 15.9 11.0 137 10734 19008 0.17 TUE 12Z 03-JAN 14.5 9.5 136 12782 25007 0.03 TUE 18Z 03-JAN 16.8 9.9 136 11695 23008 0.01 WED 00Z 04-JAN 12.9 8.8 136 10452 21006 0.00 WED 06Z 04-JAN 10.6 7.1 135 9876 26005 0.00 WED 12Z 04-JAN 7.1 2.4 132 8822 34008 0.00 WED 18Z 04-JAN 6.1 -0.7 131 5001 35006 0.00 THU 00Z 05-JAN 3.4 -1.1 130 3273 36007 0.00 THU 06Z 05-JAN 1.0 -2.9 129 316 36007 0.00 THU 12Z 05-JAN -0.8 -2.8 128 15 02007 0.00 THU 18Z 05-JAN -0.4 -4.7 128 1 01007 0.01 FRI 00Z 06-JAN -1.3 -5.9 127 0 02008 0.01 FRI 06Z 06-JAN -2.1 -6.0 127 0 01007 0.00 FRI 12Z 06-JAN -4.6 -7.2 126 0 36008 0.00 FRI 18Z 06-JAN -2.0 -8.5 126 0 35008 0.00 SAT 00Z 07-JAN -4.0 -10.2 126 0 35007 0.00 SAT 06Z 07-JAN -7.1 -13.5 124 0 34008 0.00 SAT 12Z 07-JAN -9.9 -16.6 123 0 33008 0.00 SAT 18Z 07-JAN -5.7 -19.5 123 0 32008 0.00 SUN 00Z 08-JAN -7.2 -18.0 124 0 31005 0.00 SUN 06Z 08-JAN -8.6 -17.2 124 0 30002 0.00 SUN 12Z 08-JAN -9.5 -13.7 124 0 17002 0.00 SUN 18Z 08-JAN -1.8 -9.6 126 0 21002 0.00 MON 00Z 09-JAN -4.2 -8.1 127 18005 0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 hour ago, tnweathernut said: The extension centered in northern Missouri is.... ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Picked up quick heavy dusting here tonight in Central Lee County, VA. Maybe 1/4-1/5" in grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 CFS model snow depth after storm don't know how reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 CFS is a low resolution seasonal model. I think it's resolution is 38k. The GFS during it's first 10 days is 13k. The NAM's highest resolution is currently 3k. It does show a long duration wintry event unfolding but a good part of that snow accumulation is it putting down all forms of frozen as snow when it's p-type maps show a lot of freezing rain/sleet falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 06 z gfs is still depressed but cold air is there just need moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: 06 z gfs is still depressed but cold air is there just need moisture. This is right where we want to be at this timeframe. Very encouraging sign that it will not be a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Exactly. Here in the South getting cold air in place is paramount. We can worry about the moisture later. Upstairs translation is we like the jet stream coming out of Texas fairly straight, in contrast to some teardrop bomb that would cut north. Individual model runs will be all over the place this weekend. Expect some to bury the system into nothing across the Deep South (model black hole). Expect a Detroit cutter, maybe even Chicago cutter LOL. If the ensembles stay the course, no worries. Hopefully on Tuesday we can start talking about more details. Until then Go Vols tonight! Happy New Year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 8 hours ago, weathertree4u said: ?? Just pointing out there is a broader area of higher pressures over the top, with a piece centered in northern Missouri. Per that model run it was a good look for the TN Valley region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Who made this?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 it was on the winter storm outlook for east tennesse facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 12z GFS cutting north, apps runner and too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 12z has pushed the storm north with us in rain hope its a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 One thing about the GFS, if you don't like what it shows one run, give it 6 or 12 hours and you'll see plenty of changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: One thing about the GFS, if you don't like what it shows one run, give it 6 or 12 hours and you'll see plenty of changes. would love to see if European model says same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 I'm fairly encouraged. The middle ground when you blend the last 48 hours of model runs is a great track for our area. That's why the Ens means of the EPS and GFS keep putting out great totals for our entire region. The 00z EPS mean was also 2+ inches for our entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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