John1122 Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 European Ens stick to wintry solution. Do not feature weakened NAO or SE ridging like the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 16 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: What does this mean ? I am so glad some one asked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 ENS vs Op on the Euro. ENS OP Temps ENS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 So for now, we'll see if that was a blip OP run or if it somehow sniffed out something the ENS aren't right now. But among models the EPS is the best at this range for the 500mb pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: ENS vs Op on the Euro. ENS OP Temps ENS So does it mean snow or just dry cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 The 12 para GFS has our snow in Louisiana, the FL Panhandle, and Savannah. So there is that... Still a long, long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 Apparently only 3 of the 50 EPS members showed the warm solution of the Euro OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12 para GFS has our snow in Louisiana, the FL Panhandle, and Savannah. So there is that... Still a long, long way to go. It's showed several major snow storms here that ended up going from Northern Missouri to Chicago and NE. So that's right where we want it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 It's showed several major snow storms here that ended up going from Northern Missouri to Chicago and NE. So that's right where we want it!This is spot on. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 hour ago, Mrwolf1972 said: So does it mean snow or just dry cold? It does not mean anything right now except the operational version of the ECMWF is not supported by the ensemble mean. We are still 8 days away and way too early to draw conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Lets hope it turns out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 18z GFS puts the low on the gulf but warm nose in valley. If we can hold the cold air it would be great setup. Sound right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Regions Prev. Runs Forecast GIFTrend GIFPage SettingsKeyboard Shortcuts Precip/Moisture Lower Dynamics Upper Dynamics Thermodynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 Great track on the GFS. Good position on the highs. Just need the one in Illinois to be slightly stronger than 1027. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 18z ens have lows clustered similar to the OP. They are colder though. Most of the area is below freezing at the surface 192-228. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I don't like seeing a slight shift north on the OP runs at this stage, but there are enough individuals suppressed to keep our interest. 500 will continue to shift around and this will cause more changes with modeling at the surface in the coming days. I do know the depth of modeled cold looks great, but often verifies warmer. I also know any ridging modeled in Greenland in recent years has largely reduced as we get closer to the appointed time. We need both of those areas to stabilize and even strengthen going forward. The only thing I feel really good about at this point is moisture, something I couldn't have said just a few short weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 The mean is once again impressive as are many individual members of the 18z GFES suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 8 minutes ago, John1122 said: The mean is once again impressive as are many individual members of the 18z GFES suite. Agree. I am not greedy. I'd just like to see a general 1-3 or 2-4 type deal for a widespread area of the TN Valley before a minor pullback (hopefully) and a bigger winter storm later in january... in a nutshell I just want to get on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Agree. I am not greedy. I'd just like to see a general 1-3 or 2-4 type deal for a widespread area of the TN Valley before a minor pullback (hopefully) and a bigger winter storm later in january... in a nutshell I just want to get on the board. I love any amount of snow. Seeing a valley wide 2-5 inch mean run after run is nice. We're approaching the window where sometimes storms go in a model hole for a day or two but so far this potential has been steady for days on end. So I believe we've got a good chance of scoring at least something. Last winter it was 1-17 before we even had a trackable threat. Which failed but set the stage for a wintry period from the 20th to the 25th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I love any amount of snow. Seeing a valley wide 2-5 inch mean run after run is nice. We're approaching the window where sometimes storms go in a model hole for a day or two but so far this potential has been steady for days on end. So I believe we've got a good chance of scoring at least something. Last winter it was 1-17 before we even had a trackable threat. Which failed but set the stage for a wintry period from the 20th to the 25th or so. Yeah we're about to enter that time frame where the mods freak out and sometimes completely lose the system Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I won't disagree, but the pattern should be a little easier for the models with better than average skill. Not saying LR modeling is ever easy, but the general look of a system with overrunning from the southwest has a fairly good chance to happen. Biggest question is how much cold available? (i.e...is it a TN Valley system or an OH Valley system)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I have seen a lot of TN Valley snows that looked like this at the surface at 162. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: I have seen a lot of TN Valley snows that looked like this at the surface at 162. My grandfather was fond of saying snow in North Texas meant snow here. Suppressed through 180 but plenty cold and a storm south of us is hard to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: My grandfather was fond of saying snow in North Texas meant snow here. Suppressed through 180 but plenty cold and a storm south of us is hard to beat. I REALLY like the brief blocking making a comeback on the GFS. We need to see that on other model runs. I am think with this look at 500 there would be more precip than shown... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 Suppressed throughout the run. If years of model study have taught us anything it's that that is where we want to be most of the time a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Those two pieces have zero space between them. GFS loses the front runner completely, but that broad southwesterly flow could produce. A little stronger out front and the surface would have been a lot more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I like what the GFS showed on this run. Really impossible to pin down specifics this far out but we have a potential storm that has shown up consistently and we will have the cold air in place before any overrunning happens. That's about all we can ask for in the Valley in the winter time looking at the 150- 200 hour range. I really feel like we will see several different scenarios spit out from the models. I don't think over the past few weeks I have seen a 500mb vort map look the same run to run. Models are really struggling in the long term this year for some reason. G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 HP diving down from the plains isn't a pretty sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: HP diving down from the plains isn't a pretty sight The extension centered in northern Missouri is.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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