jaxjagman Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Euro didnt have the ridge last few runs.850mb winds are more SW tonight,more surpressed this afternoon.Close to being a big hit for TYS.Also close to being a big ice storm for CHA tonight,lots of more swings coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 Overnight models for the potential stormy period, the Canadian is a 1-4 inch state wide snow event, the GFS was moderately suppressed at 00z with maybe 1-3 in parts of the area. 06z GFS is major suppression with deep deep south wintry weather and cold and dry here. I don't have the Euro but from 24 hour panels an I 40 and points north event seemed possible. 00z GEM 00Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 The GGEM is a great track, pops a low off western Louisiana and tracks it over Mobile into the Florida panhandle. It's just not putting out much of any qpf. .1 to .3 for most of the Valley areas. Thus the 1-4ish inch snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 I know it's still 8-10 days out but it's not looking good just can't figure out my weather program on my phone from the weather network is still calling for 8 inches next Friday hope it's right just not much confidence watching the models give snow to Louisiana and not us. Hope for models change for the best in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 13 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: I know it's still 8-10 days out but it's not looking good just can't figure out my weather program on my phone from the weather network is still calling for 8 inches next Friday hope it's right just not much confidence watching the models give snow to Louisiana and not us. Hope for models change for the best in the next few days. No reason to feel down. The setup is there like others have said. That is what matters most at this point. Most models are a good hit for TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 30 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: I know it's still 8-10 days out but it's not looking good just can't figure out my weather program on my phone from the weather network is still calling for 8 inches next Friday hope it's right just not much confidence watching the models give snow to Louisiana and not us. Hope for models change for the best in the next few days. Let's not start the cliff diving yet....this is a process and it may or may not look good right up until show time. If it were easy, this board would not exist. Check out this thread from the last big snow here in our area....even the day before was full of uncertainty..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/500vgftbl/500vgf.html#KEY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 12z looking better not cliff diving just trying to understand it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Looks like a nice, long over-run event for the valley on the 12z GFS today. This starts at hour 180 and doesn't end until 222. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 CMC not on board. It has the LP moving from Denver across the southern Ohio Valley and then turning into a Nor'Easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, Wurbus said: CMC not on board. It has the LP moving from Denver across the southern Ohio Valley and then turning into a Nor'Easter. Least reliable model. Now if other models start showing that trend then it is onto something. But I highly doubt it is right. I believe that run was a hiccup. From coldest to warmest in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Least reliable model. Now if other models start showing that trend then it is onto something. But I highly doubt it is right. I believe that run was a hiccup. From coldest to warmest in 24 hours. I agree. The whole run just seems off based on what all the other models are showing. We'll see what the Euro has in store for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 hours ago, Mrwolf1972 said: I know it's still 8-10 days out but it's not looking good just can't figure out my weather program on my phone from the weather network is still calling for 8 inches next Friday hope it's right just not much confidence watching the models give snow to Louisiana and not us. Hope for models change for the best in the next few days. The NW trend is legendary on long range modeling. I'm happy with a suppressed look right now. Still lots of potential tracks. Should be a little more clear in about 120 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 I was generally encouraged by the overnight model runs and the just released 12z GFS suite. The lack of activity on the board is a testament to just how far out this is. What I am reasonably confident in is a snow/ice event SOMEWHERE from the Lower plains and Tn Valley to the Oh Valley area. The pattern projected will likely be more stable than other patterns you see, primarily because of the size of the blocking in the Pacific/Alaska region, but also in part to a muted block in the northern Atlantic/Greenland area. This helps increase confidence in a storm, even if 100-150 mile swings have the potential to hose a LOT (maybe everyone) in our subforum for the benefit of those just north of us. Fairly confident there are at least 2 waves that could provide snow/ice for our region (or just north of here). Modeling SHOULD be more reliable (as long as we attain the general look shown) and I think we have already seen pretty good consistency (i.e. what was day 11-12 is now 8-9ish). Still a LONG way out and plenty can go wrong, but all in all pretty good agreement on a period to watch and probably even track by this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 I was generally encouraged by the overnight model runs and the just released 12z GFS suite. The lack of activity on the board is a testament to just how far out this is. What I am reasonably confident in is a snow/ice event SOMEWHERE from the Lower plains and Tn Valley to the Oh Valley area. The pattern projected will likely be more stable than other patterns you see, primarily because of the size of the blocking in the Pacific/Alaska region, but also in part to a muted block in the northern Atlantic/Greenland area. This helps increase confidence in a storm, even if 100-150 mile swings have the potential to hose a LOT (maybe everyone) in our subforum for the benefit of those just north of us. Fairly confident there are at least 2 waves that could provide snow/ice for our region (or just north of here). Modeling SHOULD be more reliable (as long as we attain the general look shown) and I think we have already seen pretty good consistency (i.e. what was day 11-12 is now 8-9ish). Still a LONG way out and plenty can go wrong, but all in all pretty good agreement on a period to watch and probably even track by this weekend. 8-9 days ? heck the gfs moves precip into west tennessee a week from today . don't sell us short lolSent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, bhamwx205 said: 8-9 days ? heck the gfs moves precip into west tennessee a week from today . don't sell us short lol Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk I'm splitting the difference between system one and two. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 GFES....wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: GFES....wow! Yes please! 4+ average across TN. Of course specifics still very unsure but great spot to be in at this time. Hopefully will only increase as we get closer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 Some very big hits on the GFES members to crank out that average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 Euro goes full on apps runner and gives us a rain event on the 12z run. Went from strong -NAO to weaker one. No Atlantic ridge to strong one off the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Looks like it develops a late wave for parts of the TN Valley (central TN, northeast MS and northwest AL) to salvage a couple of inches. That would be a total hail mary, lol. Hiccups are to be expected, though this is a distinct possibility (the storm evolution, not the hail mary part). Hope to see the EPS differ with the OP with regards to the evolution. To me, it looked like the Euro hopped on the front runner, which halted the boundry from being able to press. After that, the next system had nowhere to go but north and west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Hopefully all of Tennessee will be preparing for a winter storm by this time next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 The Euro going toward an APPS runner is a bit discouraging. I'm sure there will be flips and flops before the models latch onto the real solution, but the EURO has more weight than most. The weaker -NAO would definitely play havoc with a good track for the TN Valley. A strong SE ridge off the NC coast would kill us. Hopefully this flip is just a FLOP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Does anybody have any good suggestions on where I can look up estimated snowfall totals for this possible upcoming storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 26 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Does anybody have any good suggestions on where I can look up estimated snowfall totals for this possible upcoming storm? Look in the weather links section. But always remember, any of them should be taken with a huge grain of salt even 48 hours before a storm. At this range they are mostly just for fun. They will change dramatically every 6-12 hours as we've seen the last two days. At this point I'm pretty sure of two things, that it's going to get colder and that a storm will track somewhere across the East in 6-9 days. Will it be cold enough? Who knows. Will it take a favorable track? Who knows. We should get a much clearer picture towards Monday but even then we will probably be struggling for details if the wintry solutions are still on the table. Winter storms here are much much harder for models to nail down than Lakes cutters that are rain events here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 The Canadian Ens vs the wound up cutter on the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 16 minutes ago, John1122 said: The Canadian Ens vs the wound up cutter on the OP. What does this mean ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: What does this mean ? The ENS keep the nw broad flow and don't have the signal for the wound up storm of the OP. The OP isn't a cutter, it's a storm that starts to bomb in the Rockies and weakens as it heads due east, but it goes by North of us and pulls in a ton of warm air. The ensembles aren't even remotely close to that solution. For instance, at hour 210 on the Canadian OP it's 53 degrees in Nashville. At hour 210 on it's Ens it's in the upper 10s to near 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 After looking through the individuals, it's a definite north shift. It will be interesting to see how much energy stays in the northern branch and how much breaks off into the trough heading into the west. Whatever transpires in the 3-5 day period will set the table for whatever comes after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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