weathertree4u Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, BillT said: ty for your comments......not sure why some folks challenge every comment i make....... Some people are just a little tighter strung, I would not worry too much about it if I were you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Still snowing lightly at 234 same areas just mentioned. Looks to depict a long duration mostly light, but occasionally moderate snow event for a good chunk of the mid-south. A 3-8 type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 Euro also have wave two that the GFS keys on later dropping into the Rockies from the NW. Euro was as mentioned 3-5 over most of the valley region NMiss-NAla and north with increasing amounts in East Tennessee, especially the mountains with 6-10 showing up there. 00z was similar but with more moisture for most of the state, thus more snow on it. Either way great consistency on the Euro with a slider type state wide event. No use looking at exact snowfall maps this far out as we all should well know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 In Northern Alabama around 2-3 tiers of counties down has snowfall with a tier of counties below that having freezing rain/sleet. Very wintry run for the entire region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 43 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Hey, man. What is your take on the evolution of the configuration of the stratosphere late in the GFS run? You know more about that than I do. Looks like some changes there. I am certainly no expert with the strat stuff, but in general seeing a disturbed strat eventually split (which the gfs does at the 50hpa level shortly after day 10, and the 30hpa and 10hpa levels shortly thereafter) is a good thing vs. bad. It's better than a tightly wound vortex as that tends to keep the cold bottled up. (+AO and NAO) It does try to reconsolidate fairly quickly, but still has a disturbed look to it by day 16 (LR stuff is such a toss up, so it might not even be right anyway) This is probably overly simplistic and there is a TON that can be learned for anyone wanting to devote the time to it. I'd be happy if someone more knowledgeable can correct me (if needed) and/or add to this for the help of everyone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 48 minutes ago, John1122 said: The temperature is in the 20s from 700 to the surface, it'd be dry snow imo. Yeah seen that on my maps,Sharppy is to warm for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 I wouldn't get too worked up on that GFS panel...276hr...it will be different a couple of hours from now when the 18Z comes out. I can make some more sense of the Euro given the pattern expected and what we have experienced so far. The Euro and the GFS for that matter have over-forecasted the southern extent of the cold in the December so I would be prepared for some northward progression over the next couple of days. It does have consistency over the last three runs but the actual placement of the front will mean everything to who gets and who doesn't and it is uncomfortably close to the eastern valley...as drawn it will be difficult for Chatt to see anything and I feel that will only get worse with time. Anyway, there is not much sense in the delving into the details on Day 8-10...we have a potential for an event somewhere in our forum area and it is holding together on successive runs...good enough for me for now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Definitely good point re: the cold not verifying as cold as modeled. The 12z Euro control has snow developing in Oklahoma day 7.5 to 8 and streaking eastward into Tennessee. Another i-40 special shaping up and really just a statewide snow event as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 While it may not happen as modeled, we are getting into a better part of winter for cold progression and we have a much more cooperative Atlantic being modeled. The December cold was always it vs a SE ridge and that cold still won out as we were below normal for the better part of the month before these last few super warm days erased that. I like our position pretty well right now. Could all change though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Edited to include the EPS. - post 529 https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/48706-2016-2017-great-tennessee-valley-winter-discussion/?page=18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 Not surprisingly given its OP run, the Euro control was also a nice snow event for the valley region. Not seen the EPS but heard good things about its snow mean. Hopefully it can be a consistent threat to track. Will be thread worthy in a few days if it keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Yes the EPS weather pattern is similar to the Op pattern in the 6-10 day. Regarding 11-15 day PV, it gets jostled a little bit but remains intact. We should probably look for more love at 500 mb and below vs the Strato. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 From the SE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Yes the EPS weather pattern is similar to the Op pattern in the 6-10 day. Regarding 11-15 day PV, it gets jostled a little bit but remains intact. We should probably look for more love at 500 mb and below vs the Strato. Thanks, Jeff. I definitely agree considering what is potentially right in front of us, a good period to watch..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 It is hard to ask for better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowaddict28 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Is there a chance that folks on the I-20 corrider can get in on the snow action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, Snowaddict28 said: Is there a chance that folks on the I-20 corrider can get in on the snow action It's a long way out but right now that may be a little to far South depending on how far east you are. The better chances for further south areas look like Mississippi and Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowaddict28 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, John1122 said: It's a long way out but right now that may be a little to far South depending on how far east you are. The better chances for further south areas look like Mississippi and Arkansas. Ok thanks I'll keep my prayers on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 GFS 12z para is still out to lunch keeps a smaller system way south of area and to dry here in valley. 18z GFS rolling out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: GFS 12z para is still out to lunch keeps a smaller system way south of area and to dry here in valley. South may not be a bad thing after reading Mr. Bob's quote. Waves have been trending north all season. Hey, the 12z para was a heckuva run though. Basically, reloaded the pattern and away we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 42 minutes ago, Snowaddict28 said: Is there a chance that folks on the I-20 corrider can get in on the snow action Welcome to our subforum. I hope you learn a lot from this forum and the southeast forum. It's not out of the question to get I-20 involved, but it's also not out of the question to see nothing at all for anyone in our region. We should have a MUCH better idea by this weekend or early next week if the threat is real, but even then we will spend several days trying to determine who is in the game (for winter weather) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 55 minutes ago, Snowaddict28 said: Ok thanks I'll keep my prayers on it No problem. I'll say this, an overrunning system like this isn't a bad way to go for your area. Stronger gulf lows crank up and send warmth into central Alabama and into the Tennessee Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 18z GFS was to put it nicely, a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 18z GFS was to put it nicely, a mess. I thought it was fine. Arctic front laying across the region. the gfs just squashes the system the Euro had . right where we want it 8 days out . we have seen the gfs do this for years Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 18 minutes ago, bhamwx205 said: I thought it was fine. Arctic front laying across the region. the gfs just squashes the system the Euro had . right where we want it 8 days out . we have seen the gfs do this for years Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk The gefs doesn't withdrawal the cold like the GFS is doing . I have always been told when it comes to winter storms the euro and Canadian models are best to go by then the American models am I right here ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 39 minutes ago, bhamwx205 said: I thought it was fine. Arctic front laying across the region. the gfs just squashes the system the Euro had . right where we want it 8 days out . we have seen the gfs do this for years Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk It was a bad look at 500. Blocking retreats and the SE ridge rears it's ugly head. That was gone from most models or very suppressed for a few days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 28 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: The gefs doesn't withdrawal the cold like the GFS is doing . I have always been told when it comes to winter storms the euro and Canadian models are best to go by then the American models am I right here ? A blend is the way to go in most cases. The EPS is the most accurate at 500mb in the extended, followed by the Euro OP, GFES, and GFS I think. The most accurate long lead though comes from the forecasters at CPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 As was posted above, the GFES was much better than the OP. It appears to actually show moisture overrunning sub 240 hrs in the same general time frame as the Euro with temps in the 20s and lower 30s in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 00z bounced back. Has a suppressed version of the 1st Euro storm and is back with its second punch. Was super suppressed with the wave the euro keyed on, now has precip very near us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 Only have access to 24 hour Euro panels, but it looks like there's a low on the Louisiana Gulf Coast with sub freezing 850s from 40 north. Then the low is 996 off the NC shore 24 hours later. At 240 the block is building all the way from Alaska into Scandanavia and it's just pushed a lobe of the PV into Northern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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