jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 3 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Carver you convinced me. Long time lurker here. Great forum here. Very level headed. No gloom & doom. Mr. Jeff & Carver & TN Wx Nut & John all have great posts. Mr. Jeff posts are great but man he brings you back to reality after seeing those weenie runs! When he showed excitement last week I was like if he is excited so am I! Everybody on here are great. Very thorough discussions & repect for one another! Really glad to have joined! Welcome to the board !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Welcome to the board !! Thanks Jax. Meant to include you also in posts. I live in Mid. TN now but grew up in Holston View which I am sure some on here know where that is. I miss the beautiful views of growing up along South Holston lake. Also miss my weekly Ridgeway Barbecue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 3 hours ago, Matthew70 said: Carver you convinced me. Long time lurker here. Great forum here. Very level headed. No gloom & doom. Mr. Jeff & Carver & TN Wx Nut & John all have great posts. Mr. Jeff posts are great but man he brings you back to reality after seeing those weenie runs! When he showed excitement last week I was like if he is excited so am I! Everybody on here are great. Very thorough discussions & repect for one another! Really glad to have joined! Glad to see another poster from middle TN! Having folks participate from all areas of the forum is what makes this fun. I know BillT jumped in and gave some info about freezing fog the other evening. We cover a wide geographic area. So, it is always great to have folks for discussion and for observations. And yes, we have a tradition of keeping our cool...though last December tested my limits. The 12z para and CMC have some nice set-ups in the medium range. Not really looking at the details at this point, but at the pattern and time frames. There may be a window(to steal a MA term) opening up around the New Year. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 18z GFS looks nice @200. Good set-up but still more than a week away. Something to keep an eye on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 Problem is that really no other models are supporting the GFS correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 19 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Problem is that really no other models are supporting the GFS correct? This far out...models will be all over the place. The 12z para supported it and the CMC to some extent. Canadian probably has the best look but is a bit warm. Specifics though don't mean much at this range. Just looking for a window right now. Would be very rare to see model agreement at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: This far out...models will be all over the place. The 12z para supported it and the CMC to some extent. Canadian probably has the best look but is a bit warm. Specifics though don't mean much at this range. Just looking for a window right now. Would be very rare to see model agreement at this range. Yeah I could care less about specifics. Let's just get some troughing in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 Not very promising,but fits the pattern this winter with the ENSO Prognostic Discussion for Experimental Week 3-4 Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300PM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jan 07 2017-Fri Jan 20 2017 Model consensus is again quite good, though the forecast circulation pattern has shifted toward a colder solution over North America during the past week. The Week 3-4 forecast 500-hPa height pattern is similar in both the CFS and the ECMWF, with each depicting anomalous ridging in the North Pacific, troughing downstream over west-central North America, and ridging over the the eastern CONUS. The JMA height forecast is dominated by a strong positive phase of the annular mode, and is quite different from both the ECMWF and the CFS, as well as the Week-2 forecast circulation. The MJO remains weak, though both the RMM and CPC indices hint at an enhanced convective signal over the far West Pacific. Little coherent signal is forecast over the next couple of weeks. A weak La Nina base state remains intact, and the statistical forecast that leverages ENSO, MJO, and linear trends, depicts a fairly cold solution for the CONUS, centered over the north-central U.S. The strong positive NPO/WP pattern forecast last week by the ECMWF has given way to a pattern that does not project strongly onto either the NPO/WP or the NAO. Additionally, this forecast is issued against the backdrop of the current Week-2 guidance, which has trended colder over parts of central North America, especially in the GEFS and Canadian forecast systems. The temperature and precipitation outlook are drawn mostly from the calibrated ECMWF and CFS outlooks, as well as the statistical ENSO/MJO/trends forecast tool. The JMA is discounted due to it being quite different from the other guidance, and inconsistent with the latest medium range ensemble forecasts in the 10-16 day period. Below-normal temperatures are favored from southeastern Alaska to the northwestern and north-central CONUS. The highest probabilities are forecast over northern High Plains. Above-normal temperatures are more likely from parts of the Southwest, through the southeastern U.S., into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Above-normal temperatures are also forecast for portions of western Alaska where anomalous southerly flow is more likely. The CFS and ECMWF precipitation forecasts are in fairly good agreement, with a slight tilt toward above-median precipitation favored across much of the CONUS. Probabilities favoring above-median precipitation are highest across parts of the interior West, where some undercutting of forecast ridging over the North Pacific is more likely, as well as over parts of the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys where the mean storm track is expected, consistent with the forecast temperature pattern. Anomalous ridging forecast over the Southeast leads to enhanced odds of below-median rainfall for parts of Florida and South Texas. The Alaska Panhandle is expected to be downstream of forecast ridging in the North Pacific, favoring below-median precipitation for that region. Hawaii is forecast to have marginally enhanced chances of above-normal temperatures due to expectations of anomalous southerly flow, despite SSTs generally being near climatological values. Ensemble guidance indicates an increased likelihood of above-median precipitation for the eastern part of the state, with EC indicated farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 18z GEFS and 12z GEM ensemble are cold post d10. Nice to see some ensemble support. Big change for the GEM ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 ak ridge is further west on the 0z gfs,NAO looks more = to me but either way,you see a further N track ,not a favorable track for the Valley,unless your towards the western rims Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 Jag, that looks like it wants to go to the general Midwest upper Ohio valley snowstorm setup as what December has yielded. Chicago mega winter if this keeps up. Hopefully, Nina kills out soon and something shuffles pattern for us. IMO, February may be our month if that ridge can progress eastward in the n.pac and become +pna. As it stands, blocking needs to be strong IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 Impressive what the Euro is showing, showalter -4 in east Ark..-3 more west Tn into Mid Tn,even after diurnal heating its still -1 to 1-2 to the east,best i've seen in some time in the Valley Wed afternoon into evening.So we go from snow to what could be severe..Just a wild pattern.I hope if we cant get snow it happens,i love the light shows,definite would be one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 I think the ensembles are having trouble modeling the cold. Even the operationals are struggling. What "appears" to be on the horizon is a version of the same pattern. What happens in November/December the winter will remember. Seems like the West stays cold. The airmass there builds to extreme levels and then discharges east southeast. How far it gets into the South is a big question that we may only know 4-7 days out. When you see January temps at anytime forecast below normal, those are cold temps. If we see AN forecast for August, we know the dog days are ahead. Same is true if we see those forecast in January. I think we are in a pattern with wild swings. The 0z Euro operational is one option. The real question that needs to be answered is just how strong(and how much influence) the -epo will have? Also, Jax was that a -NAO on the 0z Euro? Seemes a bit south of where we need it, but was raging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 8 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: I think the ensembles are having trouble modeling the cold. Even the operationals are struggling. What "appears" to be on the horizon is a version of the same pattern. What happens in November/December the winter will remember. Seems like the West stays cold. The airmass there builds to extreme levels and then discharges east southeast. How far it gets into the South is a big question that we may only know 4-7 days out. When you see January temps at anytime forecast below normal, those are cold temps. If we see AN forecast for August, we know the dog days are ahead. Same is true if we see those forecast in January. I think we are in a pattern with wild swings. The 0z Euro operational is one option. The real question that needs to be answered is just how strong(and how much influence) the -epo will have? Also, Jax was that a -NAO on the 0z Euro? Seemes a bit south of where we need it, but was raging. The Euro has been horrible.They need to stop doing updates and leave it alone and put it back like it was.Like the old saying goes"If it isn't broke, dont fix it" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 1 hour ago, jaxjagman said: The Euro has been horrible.They need to stop doing updates and leave it alone and put it back like it was.Like the old saying goes"If it isn't broke, dont fix it" Euro went full on weenie with the blocking...but I agree that they shouldn't have messed with it. I don't want to have to rely on the CMC to deliver the goods.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 the euro control goes went nuts this run . widespread winter storm in the SE Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 What I like seeing is some consensus regarding blocking over the top. (Especially pronounced on the OP, but also there on the best ensemble in the world). We should get a southern system or three if this happens. Anytime something like this happens in early to mid January, there will at least be the chance for snow and ice on the northwest side of any low. Cold air looks to be a problem, but the time of year should at least keep us with a chance and in the southeast, that's all you could ever hope for. Maybe we can get a piece of a large high to break off and move in tandem under the developing block. LOTS of ifs in our near future, but better than watching heat mizer maps on Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 12 GFS Lara shows snow in valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2016 Author Share Posted December 24, 2016 GFS Para seems to love showing big winter storms. But as was pointed out above, wait til day 5 then pay closer attention to models. They're struggling big time beyond 5 days right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Looking at the seasonal NMME's,the GFDL seems to have done the best in the Valley so far in Dec,all the other models were dry including the IMME.Also did fairly well with the 2M's,showed up basically = while the others showed us .05-1 + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 25, 2016 Author Share Posted December 25, 2016 18z GFS OP features a death battle between a massive arctic outbreak and the Southeast ridge. Just panel after panel of below normal in NW TN and we'll above normal over East TN. It finally manages to push east of the Apps around day 14. I don't believe it for a second. We get some influence from the SE ridge on this side of the Apps but when that massive a cold outbreak invades the ridge is normally beaten back much faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 25, 2016 Author Share Posted December 25, 2016 It's a long way out and no telling if it happens but this 591 death ridge needs to not be there or to be much weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 4 hours ago, bhamwx205 said: the euro control goes went nuts this run . widespread winter storm in the SE Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Heh,been watching this system the last few days.Coming off Mongolia into China then starts to develop a better system into Korea into Japan.The timing looks good.The control run is going back and forth though,even hinted of a long wave(severe) now it flipped to cold with even convection for possible thunder snow.Some of the long range models as shown above is hinting at something during this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Filling some with this looking at the BSR and EAR maps.If you have the the 5h on the control you'll see some trough heading into the TN valley.Using the east Asia rule +1-2/-1-2 days it fits well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL FELLOW WEATHER FREAKS! Feels like Spring instead of Christmas. If the sun pops out and we get near 70, may have the windows open later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Storm is still there,just no cold.Lots of rain if that's what you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 36 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Storm is still there,just no cold.Lots of rain if that's what you want. I bet it will be back with the 12Z run; no complaints though as long as we are getting the rain! Would rather have snow but will take the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Watching the 18z GFS roll...this caught my eye. Plenty of good trends on modeling today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Just now, Carvers Gap said: Watching the 18z GFS roll...this caught my eye. Plenty of good trends on modeling today. Yeah good trends indeed. Just need to be patient. Also keeping my eye on the potential for out first great upslope event around the 29th through the 30th for us in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 20 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah good trends indeed. Just need to be patient. Also keeping my eye on the potential for out first great upslope event around the 29th through the 30th for us in the mountains. Glad you mentioned that...I have seen that as well. Here in Kingsport, we are just too close to the Plateau. Now, the mountain foothills communities in TN might see some measurable snow. Decent set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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