2016-2017 Great Tennessee Valley Winter Discussion

[John1122]

All the others have their threads, so we're late to the game. Will this be a Nina winter as advertised, and if so, what intensity? If we can achieve weak Nina, it can mean good times ahead for the Valley region. Some of our most epic winters have came during that pattern, including the legendary 1984-85 winter that crushed the entire Mid-South/Tennessee Valley with heavy snows and record shattering cold. As always, many factors go into making a winter though,  as we saw in 2011-2012 when the weak Nina mattered not at all and the winter was hardly a winter at all. 

Looking at some of the analog years, even including the bad winters, almost all areas West of the Apps are below normal in the temps department during weak Nina years. Strong Ninas flip the script however and we are often very warm during intense Nina years. 

I will take a further look at some of the analogs and at real data across the Valley during these years later on. 

[John1122]

November to March averages in every weak Nina since 1950.  

 

 

[John1122]

If you removed the extremely warm 2011-2012 and the extremely frigid 1984-85 the cold season map actually looks even more favorable.

 

 

[John1122]

If the Nina ventures into strong territory the winter is likely to be markedly different. These are the Nov-Mar strong nina maps.

 

 

[John1122]

Moderate strength Ninas tend to produce a slightly warmer western Valley (.5 above normal) and a near normal eastern Valley temp wise.  Precip is near normal valley wide.

[Carvers Gap]

Thanks, John1122.  I wil try to get some thoughts added to this over the next couple of days.  Looking at the long range GFS, it is sporadically depicting fall descend upon the higher latitudes of North America.  My biggest question this winter is if the dry pattern continues.  I think we get our cold chances.  

[Mr Bob]

I am kind of partial to the look on the Euro weeklies today pertaining to the winter pattern....it is only August but still like the idea of a MW trough this winter and not an 11-12 torch...

[Carvers Gap]

17 hours ago, John1122 said:

If you removed the extremely warm 2011-2012 and the extremely frigid 1984-85 the cold season map actually looks even more favorable.

Most analogs I have seen show a pretty frigid Northern Plains.  If that verifies, I think the battleground for rain and snow really favors west Tennessee, maybe middle Tennessee depending on the shape of the trough.  But like you say, weak Ninas normally tilt the table in our favor....Much better looking winter season (if somebody likes cold and snow) than what appeared to be in the cards several months ago.  Solar activity may have a say as well.

[nrgjeff]

North Pacific may play a bigger role than ENSO this year. While the super El Nino blocked 'the blob' last year, weak to neutral opens the door for the warm North Pac SST Blob. Signal would be cooler than normal all else equal, but not as moist as classic Nina signature. I would not worry about winter precip though; esp. snow with that low liquid content.

[rbowman]

Will also be interesting to see if we get an early start to winter. Keep in mind that nina winters usually start earlier and can be front end loaded. Nino winters usually start later and tend to be back end loaded. Warm pdo definitely has my attention as a big player this winter. We are also way past due for a negative nao regime to set up. If we can get the weak nina, warm pdo and negative nao, we could really have a fun winter season. Just don't want to see a strong southeastern ridge setup with a nina!

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[John1122]

If we keep this positive PDO going during a weak Nina it's a pretty good wintery signal. Out of the weak Nina years, those with a +PDO during winter since 1950 are 1983-84, 1984-85, and 1995-96. Normally the PDO has been neutral to very negative during weak Nina winters in the past.

[Carvers Gap]

So John1122,  what do your La Nada numbers say as the Nina predictions have almost collapsed?  I have always felt the eastern Valley needs a weak Nino or Nina.  I have never been overly fond of La Nada winters.  Seems like we always need a bit of a driver on this side of the Valley.  Now, if I lived on the East Coast I might be happy with this development.  

[jaxjagman]

Hate seeing a Bermuda HP here being shown by the POAMA during the winter,though this could change of course by the next update.But this screams to me some possible good winter storms north of I-40,Ozarks,NW Valley,plateau and places like the Clingman's Dome, typical orographic places in our area.

[rbowman]

Yep. There's that good old south east ridge showing up. Hope the high will either be further east or very weak.

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[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Hate seeing a Bermuda HP here being shown by the POAMA during the winter,though this could change of course by the next update.But this screams to me some possible good winter storms north of I-40,Ozarks,NW Valley,plateau and places like the Clingman's Dome, typical orographic places in our area.

Just depends on where that trough axis sets up shop.  I tend to think that we get some pretty cold shots with the Northern Plains having very cold air nearby.  But the SER is just part of our weather pattern here.  Like I said earlier, I definitely like the middle and west TN Valley areas this winter for some decent winter wx chances.  I think the dry pattern is a bigger problem(than needing cold) for the eastern Valley.  Seems like this winter could be one of those where dry weather is the problem.  We get cold but have a dry winter.  But this far out, still very difficult to tell.  Seasonal forecasting has humbled many including me.

[nrgjeff]

Yes I agree it would favor the Mid South over the eastern Valley. Screw winter, I'm looking forward to spring severe! Just kidding; well, not really.

19 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Hate seeing a Bermuda HP here being shown by the POAMA during the winter,though this could change of course by the next update.But this screams to me some possible good winter storms north of I-40,Ozarks,NW Valley,plateau and places like the Clingman's Dome, typical orographic places in our area.

 

[John1122]

 

In the neutral enso years since 1950, 1956 had a warm October and record highs in early November in the mid 70s.  It turned cold by the 10th and November of 56 ended up with snow falling on 5 different days with 2 inches falling November 26th. The coldest day of the month was 34-12 with a trace of snow on November 22nd. December of 56 was warmer than November. It was cold around Christmas and we had 1/4th inch of snow on Christmas day. We only had .5 inches for the month. Jan 57 saw the temps yo-yo. It was 65 on the 10th and -2 on the 17th. Not a ton of snow but a whole lot of precip, over 10 inches in January. It'd warm up just enough for a big rain storm then get frigid after for a few days and repeat. February was basically the same, warm, rain, colder, repeat. Had 8 inches of rain. March was the snowiest month. 3 inches of snow fell. One of our worst winters, 6 total inches of snow with 5 falling in Nov/March. It actually snowed 3 days in April of 57 too. This is a rare winter where a wintry November didn't lead to a wintry Dec-Feb.

59-60 was Enso Neutral. We know how that went. Most legendary winter of all time for the Valley. Snow records set for Nash, Knox, Tri, Crossville and I imagine Nooga. We had 70+ inches of snow here.

61-62 Nov started warm and turned cold towards mid-month. Had a few days of highs in the 30s/lower 40s and lows in the 10s. 1/2 inch of snow fell on Nov 22nd. December was fairly cold with several snowy/wintery days. Had a white Christmas with highs in the 20s and lows in the 10s Christmas eve with 1.5 inches of snow falling on Christmas Eve and another 1/2 inch on Christmas day. It snowed 5 inches on December 27th and 28th and another 5 on December 31st with snow falling 12 days of the month. 14 total inches of snow here in December of 61.  January was brutally cold and snowy as well.  2 inches of snow on New years day as the 31st event continued. Warmed briefly then a polar express rolled into the area. It snowed from the 7th to the 11th, with a total of 8 inches falling. The high was 9 with a low of -9 on the 10th, it was -10 on the 11th with a high of 18. It was season from then through late month, some 30s and 10s days, some 50s and 30s days. It snowed 1 more inch the rest of the month and total precip approached 10 inches, with 11 inches on the month total.  Feb had a brief cold shot early that saw temps get down to 3 and 2 inches of snow fell. The rest of it was warm. The first 10 days of march were cold and snowy, we had 9 inches of snow during that time frame.  Had another inch in April for a total of 35 inches of snow in 61-62.

62-63 Snowed 2 times in October, 1/4th and a trace. November was fairly mild after another 1/2 of snow early in the month. December of 62 was legendary.  The first few days were in the 60s and then frozen hell came. It snowed for 8 consecutive days from the 5th to the 12th. That was followed by a super Arctic outbreak. It was -3 just before midnight on the 11th, the low was -14, the high temp was 4 degrees December 12th, the low was -19 on the 13th. It snowed 10 inches that week. It them warmed again, but once again by Christmas it was frigid. 5 inches of snow fell on Christmas eve with a high of 28 and a low of 18, it was in the 30s for the high on Christmas with 5 inches of snow on the ground. It stayed in the 30s and 10s through the rest of the month. January of 63 had another massive arctic outbreak after some early month warmth. The 3rd to the 12th had highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 30s, even a 60 degree high on the 11th. Then it got cold, it snowed 2 inches and the low was 1 on the 13th and -2 on the 14th. We had another brief warm up with 40 degree highs and a 20-2 day in there, in the 20th, on the 22nd it got to 47, and 42 on the 23rd. Then another polar express happened. It was -16 just before midnight on the 22nd and down to -18 by the morning of the 23rd. The high on the 23rd was 10 degrees, it was -2 and 32 the next day, setting the stage for a major ice storm. We had .47 inches of ice with a high of 32 and a low of 25 on the 26th, it was capped by 1 inch of snow as temps crashed. It was below 0 again at -2 and -5 on the 27th and 28th.  February of 63 wasn't to be outdone by much of the prior two months. There were a few warm days, but they were scarce. It snowed 1.5 inches on the 2nd, 2.5 from the 12-14th, 6 inches on the 18th-19th. 1/2 on the 21st. 1 inch on the 26th and it managed to get to -5 on the 22nd. In March the rubber band snapped and it was very warm. Still we had 29 inches of snow and a major ice storm during winter.

 

66-67. October was very warm. November got nasty in a hurry. 8 inches of snow fell on November 2nd and 3rd. Then it was warm until the end of the month, when 2 inches of snow fell on the 28th and 29th. December of 66 was another White Christmas December. There were some cold stretches in the mid month with several days of 30s/20s and a few snow showers that amounted to 1/2 inch. Then it snowed 1.5 inches on the 23rd and 1 inch on the 24th. It was 30/8 on Christmas day with 2 inches of snow on the ground. Another 1/2 inch of snow on the 29th as it stayed in the upper 30s/lower 20s through New Years. There were no extremes in January. It was fairly mild but there were a few snowy days. The biggest was 4.5 inches on January 19th.  The monthly total was 5.5 inches. February roared winter though. With 13 inches of snow falling on the 6th and 7th of the month and another 2 inches falling the 22nd-24th with a -3 temp in there on the 25th, which set up another major mixed bag storm. We had .5 inches of ice and 2 inches of snow on the 27th that switched to rain then back to snow on the 28th. March was warm again, it snowed 1 inch one day, but there were some upper 70s in early to mid march. 38 total inches and another major ice storm. The 60s winters were just awe-inspiring here. 

We didn't have another Enso Neutral winter for more than 10 years. 

78-79. No wintry weather to speak of in November or December, but Jan 1979 made up for it. It was 57 degrees on January 1st and it never got particularly warm again the rest of the month. The coldest lows were only 2 degrees, so it never got super frigid either. But snow fell on 19 of the 31 days of the month with 8 total inches falling. February of 79 was just flat out super for snow as well. Also had a -10 degree low. It snowed 12 of the 28 days. 10 inches fell on the 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th. Another 7 on the 16th, 17th and 18th, with 6 falling on the 18th alone.  3 inches fell on the 25th/26th. 21 inches total fell in February 1979. March of 79 was mostly warm with 1/2 inch falling. 28.5 total inches for the season.

 

I will continue this later with more enso neutral years, but we've had a few dud winters and quite a few very snowy ones in Enso neutral years. Not sure how other locations in the state did during this time. Also keep in mind, my obs from before 1970 are from around 2800 feet in elevation vs 1800 later on. The very good 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 winters were Enso neutral.

[nrgjeff]

Thanks for posting. Looking fwd to more ENSO neutral year logs. Some of those lows were scaring me. Then, thankfully, I read from 2800 FT, lol!

North Pacific warmth still looks helpful for delivering cold, somewhere. Even if the Mid South is favored over the eastern Valley, I have to think the Upper Plateau benefits either way.

[John1122]

Yes, my family lived on the  top of the mountain from around 1900-1970. That extra 1000 feet makes a difference of 10-15 percent on snowfall most winters, sometimes even more than that.

The next neutral year after 78-79 is 80-81. October was mostly below normal with quite a few days more than 10 degrees below normal. November was warm the first half and cool the second half. Snow fell on 4 different days and 1/2 inch fell in total. December also started out warmer than normal before turning cold mid-month. Snow fell on 6 days of the month, including Christmas day when it was 25-12, but didn't add up to a whole lot, it was a very dry December with only 2 inches of precip total, with almost all of that falling on 2 different days of the month. January of 1981 was cold and dry, it snowed several times and most of the precip that fell for the entire month was frozen. It only got above 40 degrees 9 of the 31 days of the month, the coldest low was -4. It snowed on 12 different days, there was only 1.8 inches of precip the entire month, mostly frozen, 8 inches of snow along with .30 inches of it in the form of zr. February saw a cold 1st half of the month, with 2 inches of snow on the first and another 1/2 inch on the 12th. After that it was warm and still fairly dry, with only 3 inches of total precip. March was mostly warm with a mid-month cold snap that saw 4 days of snow showers and a total of 1/2 inch falling. Keep in mind, this winter was after one of the hottest and driest summers ever in the Valley region. 

Neutral conditions persisted into the following winter of 81-82. October was pretty much below normal but nothing extreme. November was also slightly cooler than normal with 1 inch of snow on the 20th into the 21st. It was 15 on the 22nd for the coldest low of the month. December was really cold and it snowed 9 different days but it only added up to 1.2 inches total. The warmed high in December was only 55 degrees. The coldest low was 1 on the 20th. The first week of January of 82 was warm and wet, then it got really cold. A big, dry arctic front pushed through. It was 59 on the 7th but -10 on back to back mornings on the 10th and 11th with highs of 9 and 11. It snowed 4 inches on the 12th with a high of 22 and a low of 5. It snowed another 1.5 inches in the upslope over the next two days. It got up to 35-16 on the 15th then another massive blast of cold came. It was -10 on the 16th, and -14 on the 17th.  After a couple more days of cold, including the really dangerous ice storm on the 18th that was just a perfect mist onto frozen ground with temps in the 20s, a major warm up happened and big rainer hit. It cooled off in the wake of that storm with 20s and 10s and snow showers late month. Then it warmed quickly and the month finished in the 50s. It stayed warm until February 6th when a cold front came through, it undercut some overrunning and we had .15 inches of freezing rain that switched to snow with 1/2 inch of snow on top of the freezing rain. We closed out February with 2 inches of snow, some freezing rain and sleet that switched to rain in a big mixed bag storm. There were basically 4 cold days in all of March and it managed to snow 2 total inches on two of the days. There were a couple of cold blasts in April that also let to snow showery weather and two ground coating snows.

1985-1986 the La Nina of 84-85 had went neutral by the following winter. October started chilly the first week with a freeze on October 7th, but it turned very warm the remainder of the month. November was also very very warm. Well above normal conditions persisted. December brought the winter, it was very cold most of the month. Snow fell on the 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 13th, 14th, and 20th adding up to 2 inches total with multiple days of sub-freezing highs and single digit lows. It was another White Christmas.  It snowed 2 inches on Christmas eve, the high temp on Christmas day was 15 degrees, and the low was 3, the low was -1 on December 26th. The month had another 8 degree low but was mostly warm through New Years. Outside of a cold, snow showery day on the 5th, with lingering cold through the 9th, the first 25 days or so of January 86 were warm. Another system with a major cold front came through on the 25th. It snowed 3.5 inches from the 25th-28th with the high only 9 degrees on the 27th, the lows were -7 and -8 on the 27th and 28th. It warmed up the last of January and stayed warm until February 10th. Then the bottom fell out and the snow came. It snowed the 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th with 2 total inches those days and there was a massive Valentines day storm. I remember it being a very eastern Valley storm. Nashville and Crossville got 1-2 inches and East Tennessee got 5-8 inches. It snowed 7.5 here. It started as freezing rain across the area then the temps warmed and it switched to heavy heavy snow. We closed out February with a few snow showery days sprinkled with mostly warm weather. March too had it's ups and downs. There was a late month 12 degree low on the 22nd. April had a very late major freeze too, it was in the 20s the 22, 23rd and 24th with the 23rd being 22 degrees. That wasn't even the last freeze, it was 31 on May the 4th. 

 

89-90 was the next neutral year and the year that truly bad winters seemed to begin plaguing the area. There was a major cold outbreak on October 20th that produced snow showers and highs in the 30s with lows in the upper 20s. November also had multiple warm ups and cold outbreaks. There were 4 days with lows in the 10s and it snowed 1/2 inch on the 16th. December is remembered for it's extreme cold outbreak. The first 6 days of the month were warmish, then it just started getting progressively colder. It snowed 3 inches on the 15th and we had 6 days below 0 between then and the 25th. The coldest here being the 22nd when the high was 0 and the low was -14. I remember it being so cold that oil wouldn't flow well in vehicles and your oil pressure took 30 or 40 seconds to move.  January of 1990 was mostly warm and wet, it rained a lot and there'd be snow showers that chased a few times but it amounted to not much of anything. February was like January and managed to produce 1/2 inch of snow. Ditto for March and even April. Each had a few cold days, it even came a hard freeze in April and snowed a bit but mostly the whole winter was done after December.

The neutral conditions stayed through 90-91. It snowed a bit in October again and there was a couple of cold days, but mostly it was warm. November was wet, warm and snowfree. December was warm and rainy and warm and more rainy with a huge rain event that produced major flooding just before Christmas, with almost 5 inches of rainfall on the 22nd. This storm ushered in a cold Christmas day. It was 20-11 on Christmas eve with 1 inch of snow. 34-9 on Christmas day. January of 90 was mostly warm after a half inch of snow on New Years day. There was 1 inch of snow in February, and 1 inch in March. This is right there for the worst winter in my lifetime, from a snow lovers point of view.

92-93 looked like it would continue the early 90s streak of crappy winters. November was cool and it snowed a few days in the month. December was cold from the 5th to the 12th with 3/4ths inch of snow falling on 3 days of snow showers. It also was cold for Christmas and we had another White Christmas. With 1 inch of snow falling on Christmas day itself. January was warm and wet and not wintry at all. As was most of February. There was some cold weather mid-month, with lows in the single digits and some snow shower events. Then it snowed 4 inches on February 25th. Our largest snow in several years at that point. Of course March saw the great blizzard and everything it brought in it's wake. 

 

That seemed to shake the doldrums out of the winter seasons, 93-94 was a neutral continuation. We had 3 inches of snow on Halloween day in October 1993, it snowed from around 3 pm til 8 pm. November 93 was warm and dry for the most part. Only 2.5 inches of precip, all rain, fell. December was warm for the first half, then it turned cold and snow showery. It snowed 5 of the 6 days from December 20th-25th, including 1 inch on Christmas day. December finished out very chilly. January 94 was cold from New Years eve until the 15th except for 1 day, when it of course warmed and rained heavily. Lots of snow showery upslope during the time though. It snowed 7 of the 15 days here, adding up to 2.5 total inches. The 17th was a super wintry day. It was a bad ice storm for parts of the area, fortunately for me it switched to snow very quickly here. I ended up with 7 inches of snow  on top of .20 of ice, while areas along 40 and south ended up with a lot of freezing rain/sleet and then 2 inches or so of snow.  It was frigid in the wake of this storm and we spent 48 hours below 10 degrees. With lows in the -10s on the 18th and 19th. It stayed cold through the 23rd before relenting and warming up for a few days. The month ended snow showery and with highs in the 30s. February 94 was really wet and mostly warm. It snowed on 6 days but it only amounted to 1 inch total. March and April were also mostly warm with a couple of snow showery days in each.

 

1996-97 was the next neutral year, coming off a La Nina again and the brutal winter of 1995-96 which featured -20 degree temps and close to 40 inches of snow here. October of 1996 was mostly warm. November was very cold from the 8th-13th, snow showers came through on the 8th and 9th and 4 inches fell on the 10th. It stayed pretty could through Thanksgiving til the end of the month. December was mostly warm with some cold weather the week before Christmas. It snowed 1.5 inches on December 18th-20th.  It was in the 30s for highs on Christmas and then it warmed through New Years. It stayed warm until the 6th then a cold wave hit. There was snow, sleet and freezing rain on the 8th and 9th. There was 5.5 inches of snow on the 10th followed by 0-5 degree type cold from the 11th til the 14th. Then it warmed enough to rain on the 15th ahead of another cold front that had highs in the lower 20s and lows near 0. After the 20th the month was warm. February had some snow on the 6th-8th during a mixed bag storm and was mostly warm otherwise. March was warm and snowfree. 

 

I'll do the rest tomorrow. The 90s were some of the worst of the neutral winters. Though there was 1 at least in the 2000s that was bad too. We seemed to have broken into a bonanza with the neutral 2013-2015 period.  At least in my area. I know it was tough for the Western Valley during that time.

 

 

[whamby]

^You should write a weather history book... good stuff.

[John1122]

This is how the maps breakdown for ENSO neutral years following El Nino years.

 

 

[mempho]

And the forecast for neutral years after Super Nino years us something like 90/71 throughout the following winter. Amirite?

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[John1122]

The 2000s ENSO neutral years.

 

2001-2002 was mostly mild through winter with a few cold outbreaks and some ice and snow, mainly in February. March was also chilly but the blowtouch of December and January made it probably one of the poorest neutral winters, period.

 

2003-2004. November was fairly mild with only a few chilly days. December was a flip to mostly cold weather.  Snow fell on December 3rd, 5th, 10th, and 11th. A total of 3/4ths of an inch fell during these days. It stayed cold with highs in the upper 30s the next few days, leading to another cold rain to snow situation happened on the 14th and again on the 16th. On the 16th 1 inch of snow fell. Then on December 18th into the 19th it snowed for most of 48 hours with 3.25 inches falling. Then it was mild through Christmas and another rain to snow event happened on the 29th with 1 inch falling.  It was a mild first 5 days of January with temps near 60, then a pretty stiff cold front blew through and dropped temps into the 20s for highs and single digits for lows. The 5th to 6th transition brought heavy rain to cold chasing moisture snow showers. It stayed cold through the 11th, on the 8th-9th there was a freezing rain to snow event. We had .10 ice and 2.5 inches of snow. It was dry and somewhat chilly the rest of the month with a couple of cold chasing moisture snow events. February continued the roller coaster with ups and downs and more rain/snow showers in the cold. On February 12th we had 2.5 inches of snow. Then a big one hit the area on February 15th. A miller A moved from Texas across the gulf coast states. A deformation band set up over Southern Middle and up the Plateau. 5 inches here but 8+ fell in the area around Crossville. Closed out the month of February with another 3 inches on February 26th. March was mostly mild with 1 wintry day basically.

 

2005-2006 saw a fairly cool November with several snow showery days that laid down around 1/2 inch of snow during the month. December had snow showery and up and down weather as well. There were snow showers Christmas day and the 26th. January was the month of unending Lakes cutters, with cold chasing moisture a common theme. In February it got cold for a week from the 5th til the 13th or so and managed to snow most of those days, with 7 inches falling, most of which fell on February 11th. March was pretty blah as the series of mostly poor winters with around 50-60% at best of normal snow continued on regardless of ENSO conditions.

 

2008-2009 November saw a couple of snowy days and seasonal temperatures. 1/2 inch of snow fell on December 1st. It was not very wintry the rest of the month except for the 22nd when it was cold with a high in the 20s and another 1/2 inch of snow. January was very cold from the 11th-21st with some 0 degree lows, but only 3 1/2 inch and one 1 inch snow managed to fall during the period. More standard blah 2000s Lakes Cutters for February with a couple of snow showery days following big cold fronts passing. March was cold the first few days with 1/2 inch of snow falling, then not much was cooking after. This was the last of the famine years of the 2000s with around 30 percent of normal snowfall for the season, and we only got there because there was a 1.5 inch snow in April, the biggest of the cold season. The feast was on for the next two years, as I piled up over 80 inches in the next two years combined. 

 

2012-13 was the last of another mini famine that had been going since the 2009-2011 bonanza has ended. Scraped up to 5 inches of snow thanks to 2 inches falling right at the end of March. Maybe the worst winter of my entire life, which the one prior to it and 2008-2009 are also in strong contention for the honor.

2013-2014 back to the frigid feast with the first extreme cold in over a decade and a return to the huge snowfall totals from 2009-2011 in my area. 

2014-2015 another feast year with extreme cold and major snow and winter storms. 20+ inches again with more well below 0 cold. 

So mostly outside of one bad in the 50s, on bad in the 90s and the awful 2000s when winter sucked for snow lovers no matter what ENSO was doing, neutral conditions are historically pretty good here.

[Carvers Gap]

Always good to read John1122's family wx records...I know they are accurate and legit.  Great stuff.  Excellent information.  Wonder which years were a La Nada w a Nina lean?

[Daniel Boone]

Good stuff John. I had data for here in Lee county, VA going back to the 70's but, lost much of it during moving processes as they got misplaced with throw away boxes, unfortunately. I still have quite a bit retained in my memory, however.

     The 85-86 winter you listed caught my attention due to such a difference from there and here regarding snowfall. Apparently, several systems that dropped significant amounts here in January were too far East of you. The Valentine's day storm you mentioned dumped 13.5 inches of all snow here . some of the heaviest rates I've witnessed ( 6 inches )occurred from 1 to 2:15 p.m. !

[John1122]

The snowfall rates were exceptional with it across the area, the East/West cutoff was pretty dramatic. Crossville only got 2 inches out of it. There was also a period of freezing rain here before the change to snow, not sure if you had that or not. 

[Daniel Boone]

13 hours ago, John1122 said:

The snowfall rates were exceptional with it across the area, the East/West cutoff was pretty dramatic. Crossville only got 2 inches out of it. There was also a period of freezing rain here before the change to snow, not sure if you had that or not. 

It was all snow here John. Began around 9 a.m. and continued Lt. to moderate until 1 p.m. of which that period of extremely heavy snow began. Meant to mention that visibility was down to about 100 yards during that! Large, medium and small flakes with no wind. It went back to Lt to moderate after that and ended around 7:30 p.m..

Another note of interest was that the previous year we received 15" with 4-6 feet drift's on the night of February 12 and morning of the 13th in a 6 and a half hour span. The kicker is it fell on a water logged ground of which over 2" of rain fell before changeover. The wind was howling during that snowfall. A bonifide blizzard not documented!

[John1122]

Same here in February 1985. We had 15.75 inches of snow between 7 pm on the 11th and midnight on the 12th. Looking at wind obs from the area, Crossville had 25+ sustained and 38+ gusts for 8 straight hours with visibility .1 or .2. At 8 am and 9 am they reported .1 vis, 25.5/40. They somehow supposedly only recorded 6 inches of snow though on heavy snow, low 20s temps and .85 precip falling as snow. Same with Tri.  They record a 6 inch snow depth,  there and .70 fell on the 12th with temps in the lower-mid 20s for a lot of it. Yet Tys recorded 8.2 inches of snow with far less liquid equivalent falling as snow, only .28 per their records. For that period Crossville recorded 11 hourly reports of visibility of .2 or less. Knoxville had 2 such reports. Just another in a series of suspicious snow reports. That was a powerful storm, pressures were in the 29.30s. It would been the story of winter if not for the -20s in January.

[John1122]

How did you do on February 1st of 85, if you remember. It was one of those events where the far Eastern areas were rain and the Plateau/SEKY and the Mid-state did really well. Knoxville was slightly colder than Tri during the event but was still mostly rain. Crossville was in the mid 20s but with a long duration freezing rain/sleet event. Nashville had 7 inches of snow. There was 6 inches of snow here and up to London, Kentucky. 

 

It's amazing that when you observe the patterns in the area long enough, how they repeat.  Often times Tri can get heavy snow from an east based storm that dries to almost nothing in my area. Then we will get a heavy snow event that is rain in their area.  Crossville can manage to stay extremely cold at the surface, but because they are 50 miles South of my area they tend to get warm nosed way more often, even when we have the same surface temps, they get mixed precip while it snows from here into Kentucky. This happened big time during the January 29th-30th 2010 event and several since then when major ice storms effected the 40 corridor while heavy snow fell here. 

That's weather and microclimates though, things repeat over and over.

[Daniel Boone]

Agree with you totally on those suspicious reports John. It is sad that many of those are "official". 

   I too have seen how systems affect the area so differently, many times at relatively short distances. I remember the Feb. 1 85 storm well. I hated the fact we were getting a cold rain while Memphis was getting heavy snow,lol. It ended as sleet here. BTW, you're right on the Feb. Big storm date the 11th and 12th. That was a powerful lp!